The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 3)

[brewmann04]

i would also throw in Ransom if that could help the process.

[brewmann04]

i still think Baltimore might be a team who might overpay some to get themselves in the Playoffs.

[yfinn6]

lets hope that Doug has been doing his work and has team lined up to move Grienke and others. The Brewers need to get more than one extra comp pick.

 

I'm sorry, but I can't be the only one who is annoyed with your posts and you've been posting for a while. Would it kill you to give the extra 20 seconds to put a period or capitalize when needed? I feel like you have decent things to say but I can't take what you say seriously because it looks like a 13 year old girl texted her response to the board.

 

All the Brewers have done is put their cards on the table. This is more for the fans than anything so that when they trade Zack they've covered their butts. If Zack resigns - cool. If he's traded for prospects - cool. If he's lost at the end of the year via FA - cool. DM knows that the year is basically lost so he's not going to just let ZG go for nothing. If he doesn't get a deal he likes he'll hang onto him knowing full well that ZG will go to FA. That's fine with me.

 

This is a slow moving process and time of year when we all want what is best for the organization. Have faith, fans! All is well.

[splitterpfj]

1. Cole Hamels is the most sought after pitcher who may be traded right now.

2. Ryan Dempster is having the season of his life.

3. Matt Garza is probably the best available pitcher who's signed for next year too.

 

So, if Greinke turns the Brewers down, where does that leave them?

 

1. The Phillies think they will sign Hamels this month.

2. Lots of teams want Dempster, for sure, but some of those teams are already backing off, based on the Cubs' demands to this point.

3. Garza left his start tonight with cramping in his tricep.

 

If you're in the "Trade Greinke" camp, be a little patient...the best deal to be had will be there once Hamels signs and Dempster moves. The big IF right now is Greinke's next start...he needs to look good. If there's ANY question on Garza's arm, teams will leave him in Chicago, and focus on Zack.

[nate82]

Bad news for those who liked the Angels as a trade partner due to the possibility of landing SS Jean Segura. Erick Aybar is going on the DL with a broken foot (expected out 4-6 weeks), and Segura is reportedly being called up to fill his spot.

 

I would rather have Cowart than Segura.

[Animal100]

Okay, this is a long post, but I don't chime in very often, so please hear me out on this before ripping it apart.

 

I think resigning Greinke is the best option and provides the best potential future for the Brewers. It gives us the opportunity to stay competetive and we should add to the farm system with expiring contracts next year, not this one. I beleive the injury situation has made it so the only person we should trade this year is K-Rod. Also, it sounds like GMs are being a little tentative in their deadline trades this year as they sort out the new CBA value of making deadline trades.

 

Here's what I would do:

Starting Pitching:

1) Resigning Greinke is necessary - he is definitely the Brewer's best pitcher. Yo has got the talent, but he doesn't have the consistancy and wastes too many pitches to go deep into games. Greinke is a legit #1 and Yo is proving to be more of a #2.

2) Let Wolf & Narveson go at the end of this year and fill the 4 & 5 spots with best of Fiers/Thornburg/Estrada. Given the results this year, this actually should improve the rotation while saving enough money for Greinke's new contract and add a few bucks for other raises.

3) Offer Marcum Arby - he will more than likely take it as no GM is going to offer him a better deal due to his injury this year and past arm trouble. Then, trade him at the deadline next year for a prospect.

 

Starting Pitching Result: More talented rotation at the back end and we can trade Marcum at the deadline next year (save a portion of his salary and get a good prospect back). The loser of the Fiers/Thornburg/Estrada battle or Peralta could slide into Marcum's slot at that point, and we have a very affordable rotation going forward for the next few years.

 

Relief Pitching:

1) Trade K-Rod before the deadline this year for a propsect. The removal of K-Rod's salary would cover Marcum's arby salary increase next year with a little left over to cover some other player's raises.

2) There are certainly a few guys on the roster I would non-tender at the end of this year (such as Loe) as well. This would free up a few million to re-tool a couple spots in the pen. Or, they are going to have to do something with Rodgers and Scarpetta so they will probably fill roles in the pen next year at a very inexpensive price.

 

Relief Pitching Result: Bullpen would hopefully be a little better (as it can't be much worse than this year). It seems like it's always every other year that we have a good pen. Obviously, with K-Rod gone and a few of the other guys currently in arby years being let go, the pen would also be much less expensive.

 

Line-up:

1) Hart should be traded at the deadline next year for prospects. By then, hopefully Gamel or Morris is ready at first.

2) Try to trade or release Morgan in the offseason. Gindl or Schafer can easily cover the fourth spot as they gain some MLB experience. This season has shown us that Braun, Gomez/Platoon, and Aoki is the best way to arrange the outfield given the players we have.

3) Do not sign guys like Ishikawa & Izturis as they only waste salary. I think the Brewers need one solid veteran on the bech for leadership/pinch hitting, but that's it. Save the money.

 

Line-up Results: We have basically the same team as this year only we will have figured out from the beginning to play Aoki in RF and Hart at 1st, maximizing the lineup. Also, you gotta believe Rickie won't have such a horrible start to the year next year and hopefully we won't get the long term injuries we have had this year. Our lineup is showing that they will produce runs. The weak spot is still SS, but maybe Gonzalez or Bianchi can adequately improve the results we are getting from Ransom, Izturis, and Maysonette this year.

 

Overall: Yes, Greinke is our best trading option, but it's not like we are going to get the same caliber of player back in the deal for a rental player. We need Greinke back and if we do, we will continue to have a shot a the playoffs for several years to come. Even if we have to match Cain's contract, I think it is worth it and we can afford it with our farm guys filling the back end of the rotation. I don't see anyone in our farm system being a top of the rotation guy except maybe Nelson, and without at least two top pitchers (Greinke and Yo), we have no real shot at the playoffs anytime soon. Plus, we'll still get at least three decent prospects back in the K-Rod, Marcum and Hart trades that everyone on this board agrees our system really needs. Our team is not that far off this year, a few tweaks and a couple prospects from next year's trades and we could be in good shape without wasting Braun and Yo's prime years as we try to find a new #1 pitcher.

[Eye Black]

Bad news for those who liked the Angels as a trade partner due to the possibility of landing SS Jean Segura. Erick Aybar is going on the DL with a broken foot (expected out 4-6 weeks), and Segura is reportedly being called up to fill his spot.

Update: Apparently nothing is confirmed at this point and they are going to reevaluate the severity of Aybar's injury. It sounds like Segura was flown to LA, but that move could just be for insurance for if/when Aybar is put on the DL.

 

I guess that leaves a little hope that Segura is still in play.

[Invader3K]

Anyone else want to bet that Greinke will be terrible in his next outing, and then no one will want to offer anything of real value for him?

[3and2Fastball]

Anyone else want to bet that Greinke will be terrible in his next outing, and then no one will want to offer anything of real value for him?

 

It wouldn't shock me. Although I do think he'll be fine

 

I'm also beginning to think that Greinke is overrated. He had that one incredible Cy Young season. But he is what he is, a 3.80 ERA and 115 ERA+ guy. He shows flashes of incredible stuff but he's way closer to a "pretty good" pitcher than a potential Hall of Fame guy. His ERA+ last year was 104!

 

I don't believe that Greinke deserves Matt Cain (3.30 ERA, 124 ERA+, 0.00 postseason ERA) money, and I'll be very happy to see the Brewers get a good prospect for Greinke and absolutely thrilled if we could get a top prospect for him.

[brettac1]

I really don't think him having a bad start is going to hurt his trade value, no more than I think if he throws a perfect game that the Rangers will suddenly decide to trade Profar for him.

[SRB]

The Angels still have Maicer Izturis, no? He is a very solid SS and probably better than Segura would be this season. If they really want Greinke I don't think this changes things.

[dlk9s]

GM's know who and what Greinke is. One more start won't change anything. They're all just posturing to try to lower his trade value.

[JosephC]

I wonder what Melvin thinks of Ervin Santana? Santana is having a terrible year but has a proven track record as a solid major league pitcher. There doesn't seem to be any problems with his arm when reviewing the velocity numbers. The only thing that really jumps out when compared to his past performance is the effectiveness of his slider is way down. If a Brewer scout tells Melvin that the only problem that Santana is having this season is that he's hanging too many sliders but he is sound physically, then there is a decent enough chance that Melvin could be interested in him. After this season Santana has an option year for 13 million, and I don't see the Brewer's having any problem fitting that contract into the budget.

 

The Angels would probably be willing to dump him because he's having a terrible year and there is a really good chance that he's the guy that would get bumped out of the rotation if they added Greinke. Especially if Haren's return is near and I think he's already throwing bullpens.

 

Melvin took on a one year-plus reclamation project with Francisco Cordero. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see Melvin try the same strategy with Ervin Santana. Looking at the projection for the rotation next year and the current state of the bullpen, I still lean towards thinking Melvin will be aiming to get some proven major league pitchers instead of prospects.

 

The guy I think the Brewers should be shooting for in a possible Angels deal is Garrett Richards. He's in the Angels rotation right now and is holding his own (walking too many batters, other that that he's doing alright). Big guy with a 95 MPH fastball and a legitimate 3 pitch mix. Baseball America had him as the Angel's #3 prospect heading into the season and stated he has the upside of a #2 starter but was a safer projection as a #3. Obviously Segura is a guy I'd love to have and Cron is attractive as well. But if the Brewers could deal Greinke for Garrett Richards, another good to decent prospect like third baseman Kaleb Cowart and a marginal reliever currently in the majors (David Carpenter)...that's something I could be happy with. I just don't see the Brewers being able to land a prospect like a Manny Machado for 2 months of Greinke especially now that it appears that he would be unwilling to accept any deal prior to testing the free agent market.

 

But overall I like the Angels as a trading partner. Segura, Cron, Richards, the Angels definitely appear to have a major league bullpen arm to spare, and a starter like Santana if Melvin opts to go that way. A bunch of guys that would fit the Brewer's needs list and none are so highly regarded that the Angels would completely take them off the table in a Greinke deal. And yeah, I think the Angels need to make a deal because they are right on the borderline of the playoffs and they didn't do what they did last off-season to not go to the playoffs.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The only thing that will matter in that start is that he shows he's completely healthy and back to normal. If he comes and with his velocity, and looks gassed, that won't help. I don't see that happening though.

[miggs721]

I want no part of Ervin Santana

[Invader3K]

I guess my point was more that if he has a bad start, after being skipped his last time through, other teams may question his health status.

[monty57]

It may not be P.C. to say this, but not only will teams question his physical health, but they'll also question his mental health. No one knows the truth of why he was skipped. It seems to me that Greinke was upset at being skipped, so I lean towards a dumb move by Roenicke, but if I'm a GM the "battery recharge" episode would spook me. At the very least, I'd lower my offer.

[JosephC]

 

Greinke's FIP numbers will always be excellent because he has high strike out totals, but it's a backwards calculated largely meaningless metric which almost completely ignores the outcome in the field of play.

 

 

Agreed. I think FIP is a valuable tool to use a predictor for future performance, but in terms of using it to evaluate current and past performance I think it's a completely worthless metric. Once a player has a long, established history I prefer to look at the "old-school" numbers to evaluate performance and try to predict what that player will do in the future. Obviously the defense behind him and the park he pitches in impacts ERA and WHIP, but instead of applying hard numbers to correct for it I tend to perfer to look at things like home/road splits and take defense into consideration and make a judgement call

 

At the beginning of the season I was all hot for the Brewers to step up and give Greinke a Weaver-type contract (5 years, 85 million), so I am definitely not opposed to making a long-term commitment to Greinke.

 

But with the way things have unfolded this year, as well as Greinke's significantly higher asking price, I think it's probably best for the Brewers if the two sides go their separate ways.

 

Back to FIP...even though I think FIP is a useful tool as a predictor for future performance, eventually there comes a time where there is a long enough track record of performance that it becomes a more reliable tool for predicting how a player will perform in the future. Now I can fully appreciate the variability from pitching in park A versus park B and the variability in having defense A behind a pitcher versus defense B. There is no question that those things have a significant impact on ERA and WHIP. But the question will always be to what degree do those factors have on ERA and WHIP?

 

As these things apply to Greinke, using defensive runs saved and UZR/150, the Royals defense in 2010 was horrible, the Brewer defense in 2011 was above average and the Brewer defense in 2012 was below average. Park factor is interesting, because in each of the last two years Greinke has been so much better at home on the road. In his last year in KC, the home/road splits were fairly even for Greinke. Just an opinion, but in terms of evaluating Greinke's ERA and WHIP I'd probably say the only significant positive or negative bias on those numbers would be KC's horrible defense in 2010.

 

All that taken into consideration, since Greinke's Cy Young year he has logged a significant amount of innings, 507 2/3 to be exact. Over that timeframe he has a 3.92 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. IMO the only real negative impact (fielding, park) on those numbers is KC's 2010 defense, and even if you shave a full 0.70 (a high number when comparing ERA to FIP) off his ERA from that season, Greinke's ERA from 2010 to present would be 3.62 when making that adjustment.

 

Without taking the time to breakdown the numbers, I think everyone would agree that a Greinke deal would likely eat up approximately 20% of the Brewer's payroll per season. IMO, to dedicate that much of the payroll to one player that guy needs to perform at a top-notch level year after year after year. I'm talking about a pitcher like what Roy Halladay has been, or what Clayton Kershaw has become. Will all Greinke's flash on the mound and glitz in the peripheral pitching numbers, I just don't see him being that type of pitcher based on the last 2 1/2 years of work. No question he was that guy in 2009, but we are far enough removed from that where I don't think it's likely that he could regain and maintain that type of form in 3 of the next 5 seasons. A great pitcher, a guy I'd love to have on the ballclub...but IMO not a player you'd want to dedicate 20% of the payroll to. I think the best projection for him over the next five years is exactly what he is doing in 2012...ERA of ~3.50, a WHIP around 1.25 and a quality start about 60-65% of the time. That's borderline #1/#2 type numbers...again a real good player to have on the team but not worth 20% of the team's payroll.

[TURBO]

I want no part of Ervin Santana

 

I second that notion STRONGLY!

[NievesNoNO]

 

But overall I like the Angels as a trading partner. Segura, Cron, Richards, the Angels definitely appear to have a major league bullpen arm to spare, and a starter like Santana if Melvin opts to go that way. A bunch of guys that would fit the Brewer's needs list and none are so highly regarded that the Angels would completely take them off the table in a Greinke deal. And yeah, I think the Angels need to make a deal because they are right on the borderline of the playoffs and they didn't do what they did last off-season to not go to the playoffs.

 

I don't want Santana, but Richards and Cron would be an impressive return.

[brewmann04]

I Guess we hear more rumors after Tues Start.

[brewmann04]

I agree Santana is not someone we need rather have a younger arm.

[paul253]

Well hopefully now Melvin is ready to admit that his team is no longer a contender. Zack really needs a good start...or should I say the Brewers really need Zack to have a good start against Philly. With Garza's leaving his start early and Dempster getting roughed up a bit last time out Greinke could really increase his value with a good start.

[sheetskout]

Unless we offer them Izturis as well. Scioscia loves him some crappy hitters (see Jeff Mathis over Mike Napoli).

 

Hmm. You'd think Scioscia may like a veteran-presence who's brother is also on the team.

[brewmann04]

Doug has to know this team is finished and will make trades.