The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 3)

[SRB]

AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS.

 

And Aram's been almost dead even with Lawrie. So that's been a wash.

 

Escobar at SS and hitting .313/.353

Lawrie, who again I'd like to remind the crowd is Canadian and didn't grow up in SoCal and then play college in Miami is performing very well at 3rd base at the same age Braun was in A+ and AA ball.

 

Odorizzi is one of the top prospects in the game on the mound right now.

 

Lawrie is seriously the most overrated player in the game. He had a Braun-esque debut last season, but unlike Braun, he hasn't been able to sustain it. He has a .731 OPS at 3B this season (.316 wOBA) which makes him one of the worst offensive 3B in the majors. The only reason he has a similar WAR to A-Ram is because the defensive metrics somehow think that Lawrie is the best defensive 3B around (and in recent memory); there is simply no way that is sustainable going forward (if even true at all) given the unanimous scouting reports on him coming up.

 

Escobar has a .373 BABIP so his offense this season is probably unsustainable, but his WAR has been dragged down by flukey defensive metrics that say he has been horrible at SS, which I don't think is the case with Escobar or will be going foward. I have to admit, Escobar is looking like what everybody thought he might be this season.

 

Odorizzi has a 1.534 WHIP at AAA this season. Still good but not sure I'd call him "one of the top prospects in the game on the mound right now."

 

In sum, I wish we had all these players still in the system, especially Escobar, but none of them are difference-makers. We absolutely would not have a better team this year with them than with Greinke/Marcum. Not even close. It's going forward where the would have helped.

[brewmann04]

The brewers made an offer and were turned down now it Melvin job to get us the right prospects for Zack now.

[HiAndTight]

AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS.

 

And Aram's been almost dead even with Lawrie. So that's been a wash.

 

Escobar at SS and hitting .313/.353

Lawrie, who again I'd like to remind the crowd is Canadian and didn't grow up in SoCal and then play college in Miami is performing very well at 3rd base at the same age Braun was in A+ and AA ball.

 

Odorizzi is one of the top prospects in the game on the mound right now.

 

Lawrie is seriously the most overrated player in the game. He had a Braun-esque debut last season, but unlike Braun, he hasn't been able to sustain it. He has a .731 OPS at 3B this season (.316 wOBA) which makes him one of the worst offensive 3B in the majors. The only reason he has a similar WAR to A-Ram is because the defensive metrics somehow think that Lawrie is the best defensive 3B around (and in recent memory); there is simply no way that is sustainable going forward (if even true at all) given the unanimous scouting reports on him coming up.

 

Escobar has a .373 BABIP so his offense this season is probably unsustainable, but his WAR has been dragged down by flukey defensive metrics that say he has been horrible at SS, which I don't think is the case with Escobar or will be going foward. I have to admit, Escobar is looking like what everybody thought he might be this season.

 

Odorizzi has a 1.534 WHIP at AAA this season. Still good but not sure I'd call him "one of the top prospects in the game on the mound right now."

 

In sum, I wish we had all these players still in the system, especially Escobar, but none of them are difference-makers. We absolutely would not have a better team this year with them than with Greinke/Marcum. Not even close. It's going forward where the would have helped.

 

 

 

1-So...at 22 years old, we ignore the extreme defensive gains he's made from the position that he always should have been playing because of past scouting reports(though I don't know how they've gone on for years when he moved to 3rd last year). But anyway, we USE those defensive scouting reports, but we IGNORE his offensive scouting reports because at 22, again, in the toughest pitching division in the majors he's not killing the ball this year?

 

That seems like a convenient way to justify dismissing him. And no, he hasn't had a Braun like second year. Of course AGAIN, that rookie year was while Braun was still in COLLEGE. So I don't really get the point there. I think everyone outside of the obsessive need on this board to say, "nah, nothing special about Lawrie, nothing to see here," realizes he's going to be one of the games great young players. A player who is a legit 5 tool player. But we're harping on him being one of the "worst," 3rd basemen in the game because he's "only," got a .798 OPS in about 130 major league games at 21 and 22?!? So the takeaway here is that he's not Trout of Harper. Of course Harper has a .781 OPS and is a guy who's suppose to be an 80 in terms of power. And he has only 8 HR's. How overrated is he?

 

2-Escobar can fly, so his BABIP will probably always be high. And he makes a lot of contact. Given the state of SS's, after Profar, Andrus, I don't know how many I'd rather have on my team right now over Escobar.

 

3-Well, you can nitpik Odorizzi's stats, but he's also got a 3.32 ERA in AA with a 2.20 FIP with 11.7 K's per 9 with a .97 WHIP. Matches up pretty well with Thornburg.

And a 3.22 ERA and a 3.85 FIP in AAA.....

 

Again, pretty sure he'd have been ahead of Peralta, TT or Fiers.

 

 

And I'm not saying we shouldn't have traded the last two for Greinke. I think Greinke still has a Cy Young in him at least and I think he's going to be a pitcher who either can pitch a long time without injury, or will be able to come back from it given his athletic ability and his delivery.

 

But I don't see how any plausible argument could be made that we wouldn't be in a better position right NOW had we not made those trades.

 

Hell, we'd have those players and if we still wanted Greinke, we'd be in an even better position to sign him this off-season.

[jjfanec]

 

1-So...at 22 years old, we ignore the extreme defensive gains he's made from the position that he always should have been playing because of past scouting reports(though I don't know how they've gone on for years when he moved to 3rd last year). But anyway, we USE those defensive scouting reports, but we IGNORE his offensive scouting reports because at 22, again, in the toughest pitching division in the majors he's not killing the ball this year?

 

That seems like a convenient way to justify dismissing him. And no, he hasn't had a Braun like second year. Of course AGAIN, that rookie year was while Braun was still in COLLEGE. So I don't really get the point there. I think everyone outside of the obsessive need on this board to say, "nah, nothing special about Lawrie, nothing to see here," realizes he's going to be one of the games great young players. A player who is a legit 5 tool player. But we're harping on him being one of the "worst," 3rd basemen in the game because he's "only," got a .798 OPS in about 130 major league games at 21 and 22?!? So the takeaway here is that he's not Trout of Harper. Of course Harper has a .781 OPS and is a guy who's suppose to be an 80 in terms of power. And he has only 8 HR's. How overrated is he?

.

 

The defensive rankings for Lawrie have been shown to be shift inflated. ESPN ran a piece on this week linked in another thread. The truth is like Harper, Lawrie's bat has really cooled down. Yes Lawrie is young for his league but last year was the only year he posted an OPS above .802 at any level. And he is now only a year younger than Braun when Braun started in the bigs. Simply put even though he was older Braun showed way more power at every level. I think Lawrie will be a very good player but I dont think it is a stretch to say he has been a disappointment this year and is making last year look like a little bit of a fluke. He never was a power hitter until last year and then all the sudden he isnt a power hitter again. A lot of players have been anointed the next great player and not quite materialized. I said before I think Lawrie ends up hitting more like Corey Hart than Ryan Braun, which is still really good, but not amazing.

 

Back to Zack. He needs to pitch another game to show he is healthy. I am sure the Brewers have a deadline to hear his decision on the contract extension.

[brettac1]

He's definitely going to be a corner OF player in time.

[NievesNoNO]

Indeed, they need to start taking offers if they haven't already. It sounds as if they've made a actual legit attempt, although if they were serious about keeping him they should've offered the extension last season, but it's in the past. Time to move forward and get some teams bidding.

[The stache]

If Zack doesn't take this, bye bye, here's the door. Thanks for the two years.

 

Trade him to Texas for Mike Olt and Luis Sardinas. Maybe we get lucky, and snag Olt and Elvis Andrus knowing that Profar is ready. There's your left side of the infield for the next decade plus.

[Funketown]

I'm not terribly confident Greinke will get a significantly better offer than the current offer should he choose free agency. The Cain-Greinke comparison is a bit of a tough one for me, because while Greinke dominates Cain in most of the fielding independent metrics from 2010-2012 (~3.0 FIP, ~3.1xFIP vs. 3.4 FIP, 3.8xFIP), Cain has given up far fewer runs (3.92 ERA vs. 2.91 ERA). Cain's career BABIP is about 50 points below Greinke's (.264 vs. .311). Given the amount of time these guys have been in the majors I don't think it's at all unreasonable to conjecture that Cain is a low BABIP guy and Greinke is simply a high BABIP guy.

 

I don't have a great feel for how the FA market will shake out, but at this point I'm wondering if Greinke is more of a 5/$90-100 guy than a 6/$120 guy.

[Ulice Payne]

It's not as much about value as it is about scarcity. If Hamels signs, ZG will be the best pitcher available. And for that, he will reap a signicant financial premium.

[PrinceEatMeat]

If Zack doesn't take this, bye bye, here's the door. Thanks for the two years.

 

Trade him to Texas for Mike Olt and Luis Sardinas. Maybe we get lucky, and snag Olt and Elvis Andrus knowing that Profar is ready. There's your left side of the infield for the next decade plus.

 

We'd be lucky to get one of those two, much less both. Although there are things that can happen to boost Greinke's value. Hamels could re-sign with Philly, Greinke could be dominant on Tuesday, and Garza could end up being out with injury past the deadline.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, if Grienke turned that offer down we are already in crazy territory. No way we can afford more than that, and even that offer is pushing it. Time to move on and trade him. If he really wanted to stay bad enough, he would've taken that offer. It's more than fair.

[MNBrew]

Since when is anything out there saying he rejected the offer from a week ago?

[trwi7]

Since when is anything out there saying he rejected the offer from a week ago?

 

I would imagine that if he hasn't accepted the offer by now, it's unlikely he will.

[brewmann04]

DM needs to put him out their and get the best prospects in return.

[logan82]

I kind of doubt Cain got top dollar. He didn't hit free agency so I don't think we can say that Greinke will not get a contract as big or bigger. Their situations are not comparable once Greinke hits FA.

[brewmann04]

Time to get the best deal especially with the American League being tight all over.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I kind of doubt Cain got top dollar. He didn't hit free agency so I don't think we can say that Greinke will not get a contract as big or bigger. Their situations are not comparable once Greinke hits FA.

 

That's a really good point. The Cain contract can't necessarily be the barometer. The price is almost certainly higher.

[dlk9s]

DM needs to put him out their and get the best prospects in return.

Yes. You've said that. Many times.

[DHonks]

Isn't Cain better than Greinke?

[Sixtofan]

A few thoughts:

1. I think most folks believe Cain is better than Greinke or at least it appears most GMs would rather have Cain. We certainly hear that some teams due not want Greinke to concerns about his ability to play in certain types of environments.

 

2. When the Cain contract was signed, it seems most thought he was overpaid. I know there was a lot of discussion in the SF area about how the Giants overpaid to keep him and have him be happy and productive this year.

 

3. If you believe 1 and 2 then the Cain contract is certainly something that should be viewed as a ceiling for Greinke

[TheCrew07]

The only way anyone would think Greinke is an equal or better pitcher is if they are big believers in FIP or xFIP which I am not. If we can't normalize defense for a fielder for a given season, how we can we claim to be able to neutralize defense for a pitcher when we can't adequately define the defense behind him?

 

Greinke's FIP numbers will always be excellent because he has high strike out totals, but it's a backwards calculated largely meaningless metric which almost completely ignores the outcome in the field of play.

 

As such I don't think Greinke is worth Cain money, but all it takes is one organization out there who's desperate to fill a rotation slot and he'll get his due. He certainly has the talent to be every bit as good as any other pitcher in baseball but he has enough MLB seasons under his belt now that I think he's on that next step down from the elite pitchers in the game. He's still very good, but he's not Sabathia or even Cain. I think the Brewer's $112M offer is an overpay.

 

However if salaries escalate this off season like they did last year, then he probably is worth that money and maybe more, it's all relative.

[brewmann04]

lets hope that Doug has been doing his work and has team lined up to move Grienke and others. The Brewers need to get more than one extra comp pick.

[Eye Black]

Bad news for those who liked the Angels as a trade partner due to the possibility of landing SS Jean Segura. Erick Aybar is going on the DL with a broken foot (expected out 4-6 weeks), and Segura is reportedly being called up to fill his spot.

[brewmann04]

well that stinks for the Crew but at least the american league is tight so we might have other offers.

[trwi7]

Bad news for those who liked the Angels as a trade partner due to the possibility of landing SS Jean Segura. Erick Aybar is going on the DL with a broken foot (expected out 4-6 weeks), and Segura is reportedly being called up to fill his spot.

 

Unless we offer them Izturis as well. Scioscia loves him some crappy hitters (see Jeff Mathis over Mike Napoli).