The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 3)

[adambr2]

I sincerely think the Brewers are a good SS, a good Rickie Weeks, & half a bullpen away from being top contenders again. I wonder if Greinke might be inclined to see it the same way.

 

- Rickie's here already. Just has to find his good plate approach again (might take an off-season).

- A truly good SS is a major challenge for the Brewers but it also is for most teams. An acceptable big-league SS is do-able, though I'm not sure who that'd be.

- The BP's at least half-easy to restructure w/ affordable young guys & the right acquisition or two after a much-needed purge.

 

Other than Texas & the Yankees, most other teams aren't much/any more of a sure thing than the Brewers.

 

I'd feel inclined to think that most other teams are also 5 players away from being contenders.

[TooLiveBrew]

6/$138M is the rumored deal for Hamels with PHI. Greinke's going to be looking at offers much closer to $150M this offseason than $115M.

 

While I hate to see the Brewers lose Greinke to FA, I'm happy that the org. wasn't willing to go to like $135-140M to sign him. The money that's getting thrown around in MLB lately is kind of crazy.

[MNBrew]

I'd feel inclined to think that most other teams are also 5 players away from being contenders.

 

Yeah. But in the Brewers' case...

 

- Weeks is already on-hand &

- 2-3 current Nashville pitchers are already in the system.

 

So I'm positing it may take only 2 "outside" additions, and those are potentially only a quality reliever & a garden-variety decent (non-windmill-bat & non-iron-glove) SS.

[smbrewersfan15]

Doesn't Hamels signing help us get more?

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8197964/sources-philadelphia-phillies-pitcher-cole-hamels-reach-6-year-140m-deal

[Oldcity]

It definitely can't hurt. Good news.

[jjfanec]

The last few days have went perfectly for the Brewers. Hamels signs, Greinke looks terrific, and Lewis goes down.

[Invader3K]

Melvin really should be able to get a great return for Greinke now. No reason to "settle" for just an OK return.

[slappzilla]

Brian Anderson - "It looks like Greinke is done after 7 innings. Curious"

 

No, actually it's not curious. It's smart. Doug Melvin was able to prove to other GM's that there's nothing wrong with Greinke that he's still a top echelon pitcher. Let the offers roll in.

 

Having him pitch the 8th would only give him a chance to crap the bed. No thanks.

This is EXACTLY what I am arguing with coworkers about right now.

 

I could not agree with you more. Not having Greinke come out in the 8th was a very smart move for the exact reasons you mentioned. I actually was calling for him to be pulled after the 6th even.

 

For the few of you who still think the Brewers can afford Greinke, Hamels signed with philly for 6yrs $144M ($24M per). That is NOT something the Brewers could afford doing. I'm not saying Greinke will go for that same amount, but I am saying that on the open FA market, Greinke will get close to it.

[Godspeed]

For the few of you who still think the Brewers can afford Greinke, Hamels signed with philly for 6yrs $144M ($24M per). That is NOT something the Brewers could afford doing.

 

Yet they offered him 5yrs/$115M? That's a $1M/yr difference.

[Invader3K]

Also, if you look at the history of starting pitchers signing $100 million+ contracts, it's not really good at all.

[dlk9s]

For the few of you who still think the Brewers can afford Greinke, Hamels signed with philly for 6yrs $144M ($24M per). That is NOT something the Brewers could afford doing.

 

Yet they offered him 5yrs/$115M? That's a $1M/yr difference.

Plus an extra year and $29 million.

[adambr2]

Does anyone think there is ANY chance of the Brewers standing pat and still having Greinke on the team on August 1st? That would be pretty upsetting.

[dlk9s]

Sure, there's a chance. If they aren't offered a trade package that they think is acceptable, they'll stand pat.

[slappzilla]

Olt for Greinke straight up would be fine. You're getting a top 30 prospect for a 2 month rental. The Brewers won't get better than Olt, and if they do, it won't be by much.

 

The xfactor is if they throw in some more guys for a better prospect than Olt, or more prospects.

[fondybrewfan]

Grienke still has to compete with Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, and Ryan Dempster. Still quite a few good starters that teams have to pick from. The Rangers are talking to the Marlins right now about Johnson. Doug might need to make a move sooner rather than later otherwise teams might pass him over.

[slappzilla]

No way they stand pat. No way they settle for one pick. They will get something for him. a top 50 prospect at the minimum (probably a top 30 prospect)

 

Plus an extra year and $29 million.

yeah, his math wasn't adding up.

 

I'd say the Brewers were WAY stretching it to begin with at the $115M 5yr mark. Again, the Melvin and the Brewers have admitted more than once that the $96M payroll they shelled out this year is killing them and is more than they can afford. Between signing Aramis to that big deal, assuming Braun was out for 50 games, and KRod accepting arb, which the Brewers assumed he wouldn't so they could get a pick, Melvin ended up going over budget. Brewers payroll probably maxes between $80-$90M. Figure start the 2013 season at $80M at the most and then add on as the season goes on to fill holes and what not.

[Godspeed]

Plus an extra year and $29 million.

yeah, his math wasn't adding up.

My math adds up just fine. Budgets are yearly, and Hamels' contract is an extra year at $1M more. I think the point that $24M is "NOT something the Brewers could afford" is silly when they're offering $23M. Whether they should or not is a different matter, but certainly they could.

[slappzilla]

Dempster boned his trade value by balking at the Braves offer. Other teams don't want to deal with a guy that is going to twiddle his thumbs on deciding to accept a trade.

 

JJ has the shoulder issue that could scare teams. He pitched a gem the other night though, just like Greinke. Garza is not on the same level as Greinke and JJ.

 

I'd say Greinke is the best SP option out there right now for buyers.

[adambr2]

I don't think they will get Olt. I would love it if they do, but if you get Olt, I think you need to find a taker for Aramis before the deadline, too.

 

Otherwise, I would settle for a package with the Braves centered around Delgado.

[zzzmanwitz]

I don't think they will get Olt. I would love it if they do, but if you get Olt, I think you need to find a taker for Aramis before the deadline, too.

 

Otherwise, I would settle for a package with the Braves centered around Delgado.

 

Olt doesn't need to start this year or next year. If you get Olt, you are not forced to trade Aramis.

[slappzilla]

Except they couldn't.

 

I could argue the $115M 5yr offer was just a PR move, like the Prince and CC offers if you want to get down to it. The Brewers may have known Greinke wouldn't take it all along. That, and for all we know the last year on that contract was some sort of option and the guaranteed part of it was around $100M or less.

 

A small/mid-market team cannot afford to shell out $24M a year for 6 years to one guy.

[adambr2]

I don't think they will get Olt. I would love it if they do, but if you get Olt, I think you need to find a taker for Aramis before the deadline, too.

 

Otherwise, I would settle for a package with the Braves centered around Delgado.

 

Olt doesn't need to start this year or next year. If you get Olt, you are not forced to trade Aramis.

 

You are not forced to, but it would be a good idea. If they want to get out of that contract, this might be their last chance, and Ramirez has no value to us if we're not likely contenders in '13 and '14.

[slappzilla]

I'd be fine with Delgado straight up.

 

He projects as a #3 or #4 which is plenty for a 2 month rental. His upside is big too.

 

I agree Aramis has to go if we get Olt. Olt is already 24 already. Let him sit in AAA the rest of this year, maybe some of next year, but he has to come up at some point next year.

[chuckiehacks]

MLBTR now reporting the Rangers are willing to trade Olt for Josh Johnson, since Johnson is signed for 2013.

[Oldcity]

Came here to post that. Not good news. Only hope is they see Greinke as giving them a better chance to win this year.