The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 3)

[splitterpfj]

This stinks, the Brewers get just what they wanted...a great start from a great talent, so they can trade him.

 

Not fun. I hope it's a good trade at least.

[brettac1]

Hey, at least they didn't give him a win on the way out the door...

[brewmann04]

I agree totally.

[brewmann04]

we should be getting a lot of quality Offers for Zack. Besides i am one of those guys who thinks he resign with us in Fa.

[ninja33]

There's 4 days until Greinke's next scheduled start. I think that Melvin has already spoken to teams, so I would agree that there's a very good chance he's dealt as soon as tomorrow. But there's still a few days to try and get teams into a bidding war to make sure you're getting the best offer possible. Finding the right balance between maximizing the offer and having teams not go "screw it, we'll just trade for Dempster instead". It could still be a few days, but I think everyone can agree that was Zack's last start in a Brewer uniform (this season)

[Eye Black]

Per Todd Rosiak, Greinke's post-game comments on if he thinks it was his last start with the Brewers: "I thought about it a little bit, but I don't really like thinking about it so much. It's kinda fun playing here. We've got a lot of good players. We're just not pulling out wins at the moment."

[PrinceEatMeat]

Per Todd Rosiak, Greinke's post-game comments on if he thinks it was his last start with the Brewers: "I thought about it a little bit, but I don't really like thinking about it so much. It's kinda fun playing here. We've got a lot of good players. We're just not pulling out wins at the moment."

 

Unfortunately for him, it's not his choice. Unless he takes the contract offer, which he won't.

[jjfanec]

Greinke became one of my favorite players really quick and tonight he didnt disappoint in what was probably his last start. If I was a contending team and saw what he did tonight I would have no questions he is healthy and filthy when he is on. He should net us a nice haul

[adambr2]

Well, there's nothing stopping us from trading as a rental, and then making a run at him in the offseason. I think Greinke understands the business side of it, and I hope Melvin makes it known to Greinke that that is a possibility that he is willing to pursue and hope that Greinke leaves that door open as well.

 

Really, that's best case scenario. Rent a guy out for 2 months for a return when you won't need him anyway, and then bring him back. It's rare, but it's been done.

[adambr2]

Per Todd Rosiak, Greinke's post-game comments on if he thinks it was his last start with the Brewers: "I thought about it a little bit, but I don't really like thinking about it so much. It's kinda fun playing here. We've got a lot of good players. We're just not pulling out wins at the moment."

 

Unfortunately for him, it's not his choice. Unless he takes the contract offer, which he won't.

 

I agree, it's not like we didn't try. We offered you 5/$112, Zack. You market in April was probably more like 5/$90. If you want to be a FA, that's fine, but you gotta do what you gotta do and so do we.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm honestly surprised that Greinke didn't take the money, if that's actually what was on the table. He's taking a pretty big risk pitching down the stretch- the odds are against injury, but with that much money left on the table, I'd be nervous if I'm him. Going further, wasn't his agent the same guy who represented Sheets? How many millions did that late season injury and the foolish decision to decline arby cost him?

[Eye Black]

Here is the best collection of teams I could come up with that have been rumored to be interested in either starting pitching or Greinke specifically. Tried to list them in order of frequency:

 

Rangers

Angels

Braves

Tigers (added Anibal Sanchez)

Dodgers

White Sox

Orioles

Nationals

Pirates (added Wandy Rodriguez)

Blue Jays

Cardinals

Red Sox

 

It is going to be a very interesting next 24-48 hours. I am sure many of the above teams will at least check in on the Brewers asking price.

[adambr2]

I guess he could get 5/$125 maybe, even though I don't think he's worth that.

 

Or I can see a scenario where no one tops 5/$110 in a free agency offer. You just never know. Unless he think he's going to get a CC Sabathia type contract, it's definitely a huge risk, both against a deflated market and against possible injury.

 

I guess if it's me, and I have $112M on the table to play somewhere I like to be, I'm taking it, there's no way I'm risking it all over the difference between $112 and $125. I guess that's easy for me to say having never been in that situation, but I'd have a hard time thinking I'd feel any differently if I was. There is very little difference between $112M and $125M -- either way you are set up for life, if you're smart.

 

So either

 

A) It wasn't 5/$112, it was more like 5/$100

B) Greinke really doesn't like being in Milwaukee as much as he says

C) He's convinced he can break the bank in free agency

[3and2Fastball]

I think Greinke wants to play for a contending team and doesn't think the Brewers will be a contending team anytime soon. It isn't just about the money with him

[zzzmanwitz]

I'm not sure today could have gotten much better. Greinke looked amazing and the Brewers still lost. This should give DM and MA no more thoughts of contending this season. I was very happy with the outcome of tonights game. Greinke really showed the total package. Show me Profar!!!

[reillymcshane]

Last off season, the following players signed contracts:

 

Erik Bedard - 1 year/$4.5 million

Bruce Chen - 2 years/$9 million

Capuano - 2 years / $10 million

Colon - 1 year/ $900,000

Aaron Harang - 2/$12 million

Kuroda - 1 year / $10 million

Malhom - 1 year / $4.75 million

Joe Saunders - 1 year / $6 million

Edwin Jackson - 1 year / $11 million

 

Is that supposed to be a list of pitchers who are a better bet for the money? Take away hindsight and tell me which guy was a better risk than Wolf going into the season. Bedard's high water mark for innings pitched the prior three season's was 101.1 innings. Chen 155 with about the same ERA as Wolf. We know Cappy's history. Colon was 164.1. Harang 170.2. Kuroda 202 but coming off an injury last season. Maholm 185.1 and declined three years running. Sanders 202 but surrounded by years under 100 innings pitched. Jackson 121.2. All of them had problems staying healthy and only three of them would cost less than $8.5 million. You may notice that list doesn't include anyone who hasn't had an injury issue in the past several season's. There is value to durability and that according to that list is above $10 million.

 

I've probably missed some guys. But the point is, there are FAR better options at $8.5 million available than Randy Wolf.

 

Not in free agency there aren't. Your list sort of proves that.

Pitching a lot of innings is valuable if you throw well. Having a bad pitcher throw 200 innings is worse than having a bad pitcher throw 100 innings.

 

Wolf had a fine 2011. But the problem is that it's 2012, and he's having a terrible year.

 

Of 100 pitchers qualified this year, Wolf's ERA is the 94th worst. (he does beat out Bruce Chen)

 

His WHIP is 97th out of 100.

 

We won't even go into WAR.

 

He will be 36 next month.

 

I honestly think Wolf will be better in 2013. He has a very high BABIP - often a sign of bad luck. And our defense hasn't helped him.

 

Perhaps you think 2011 Wolf is the 'real' Wolf - but 2012 shows he's been very bad.

 

Picking up his option would be a colossal waste of money. Even if he rebounds and pitches well, he won't get anywhere near that on the open market.

[reillymcshane]

I think Greinke wants to play for a contending team and doesn't think the Brewers will be a contending team anytime soon. It isn't just about the money with him

 

I totally agree with you 3&2Fastball. Greinke wants to win. Losing saps the life out of him, and he doesn't want to go through a 'rebuilding' campaign. Even for a year or two. If that's the case, so be it. I appreciated Zack's time here, and really would like to have kept him. But it's time to move on.

[derflotr]

All the Brewers need is for the Phillies to lock up Hamels and the offers ought to come flying in. They will anyway, but it doesn't hurt.

[MNBrew]

I sincerely think the Brewers are a good SS, a good Rickie Weeks, & half a bullpen away from being top contenders again. I wonder if Greinke might be inclined to see it the same way. . . . and choose to stay in Milwaukee.

 

- Rickie's here already. Just has to find his good plate approach again (might take an off-season). Zack has known Rickie since they grew up in neighboring towns (Altamonte Springs & Apopka) and trust/familiarity/comfort means something to Greinke.

- A truly good SS is a major challenge for the Brewers but it also is for most teams. An acceptable big-league SS is do-able, though I'm not sure who that'd be.

- The BP's at least half-easy to restructure w/ affordable young guys & the right acquisition or two after a much-needed purge.

 

Other than Texas & the Yankees, most other teams aren't much/any more of a sure thing than the Brewers.

[And That]

I doubt a Greinke trade happens on Wednesday or Thursday. The Brewers will give the Phillies time to sign Hamels and maybe let a few other SPs be traded to establish more of a market.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/phillies-close-to-extension-with-cole-hamels.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

Hamels is signing his extension. Probably just jacks up Greinke's price even more. Not comparing him to Hamels, but any contract that big to a pitcher increases the market value. Greinke is now the biggest prize on the trade market.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/phillies-close-to-extension-with-cole-hamels.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

Well, this makes Greinke officially the biggest prize on the trade market.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I doubt a Greinke trade happens on Wednesday or Thursday. The Brewers will give the Phillies time to sign Hamels and maybe let a few other SPs be traded to establish more of a market.

 

I don't think waiting for other pitchers to be traded is a good idea. We want as many suitors as possible bidding for Greinke's services.

[And That]

There are enough teams looking for pitching that a few more trades like Dempster or Shields won't make an impact. The teams that want Greinke are not necessarily the same teams that want those guys.

[TooLiveBrew]

MLBTR link on Hamels

 

Well, this makes Greinke officially the biggest prize on the trade market.

6/$138M... wow. I've been guesstimating $125M as the baseline for Greinke in FA, but he might wind up closer to $150M. And at that potential price tag, I'm happy the Brewers weren't willing to meet his asking price.