The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 3)

[TooLiveBrew]

I linked to Perfect Game's pre-2012 top 10 prospects article for the Rangers already earlier in this thread, but here's the blurb on Olt:

 

4. 3B Michael Olt – Baseball-reference player profile

 

The University of Connecticut received plenty of well deserved notice in 2011 when they had two players, OF George Springer and RHP Matt Barnes, picked in the first round, plus SS Nick Ahmed selected in the second round. That type of talent from a northern tier college program is unusual. But the best player from recent Connecticut programs might have been Olt, who was the Rangers first round compensation pick (49th overall) a year earlier.

 

Olt missed the second half of the 2011 season with a broken collarbone but his half season numbers (.267-14-42/.891 OPS, 48 BBs) show the direction he was heading offensively. He came back and put an exclamation point on his offensive potential by hitting .349-13-41/1.197 OPS in 27 games in the Arizona Fall League. The home run and RBI numbers easily led the league. Olt’s defensive tools at third base are considered equal to his power and run production potential.

 

While Olt is still at least a year away from being ready for a Major League job, the Rangers already have one of the American League’s best third baseman, Adrian Beltre, signed through the 2015 season. Whether the Rangers consider Olt trade bait as a top prospect or consider moving him to another position such as left field or first base over the next year or two will be an interesting story to follow.

Not much in there discussing his physical tools, aside from the part I bolded. As TheCrew07 noted, Olt would instantly become the Brewers' best positional prospect, and he'd probably jump to #1 for many other organizations, too. If Melvin can bring him back for Greinke, I will be very pleased.

[Mudville9]

Sounds like the White Sox are trying to move Gavin Floyd for prospects so they can afford Greinke or Hamels. While that is good to get another team involved, I hope DM is looking at more of a three team deal and not waiting for the White Sox to come up with something. I'm not sure what the Sox would get for Floyd and if it would be better than around a top 50 prospect.

[Mudville9]

Also:

 

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120724&content_id=35481088&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

Maybe we could get a bag of balls for K-Rod?

[thebruce44]

They can do the buyout on the option and then re-negotiate a lower deal if they want to bring Wolf back, probably.

 

Maybe but I don't think Wolf is going to be as cheap as you think. To make it a wash they would have to sign him for less than $8.5 million. He's pretty durable, has over 200 innings per year over the length of the contract and has actually produced pretty well over his past two seasons.

 

You keep saying this, but it doesn't make it true. Wolf had a 0.8 WAR 2 years ago and a 1.5 WAR last season, both below average. Even last year when his ERA was decent, he wasn't as good as his ERA suggested. I'm not even going to go into this season. Basically, at this point in his contract, I would be happy if we can get 3 wins out of him over those 3 years. That's terrible, and to not worth picking up his option when he is likely to continue his regression.

[monty57]

I'm torn on the whole Olt thing, because I'd prefer to get pitching back for ZG.

 

I agree that it would be great to get more young pitching, although right now we have better pitching prospects than position prospects. I like the thought of getting Olt for Greinke and then moving Ramirez to the Dodgers for pitching. I doubt we're going to find a pitcher that's more highly touted than Olt, and he makes Ramirez expendable. Lots of money saved and two MLB roster spots filled with exciting young guys playing for league minimum.

 

If we do not plan on trading Ramirez, then I think we might want to look for someone other than a 24-year-old 3B who will probably be MLB ready in 2013.

[brettac1]

Also:

 

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120724&content_id=35481088&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

Maybe we could get a bag of balls for K-Rod?

I would take one individual ball just to not have to see K-Rod anymore.

[3and2Fastball]

Frankly, the only guy that I wouldn't listen to trade talk on at this point would be Braun.

 

I wouldn't trade Braun, Fiers, Gallardo or Maldonado. Anyone else I would be open to discussing. I'd be very reluctant to trade Thornburg, Bradley, Nelson, Peralta, Gennett or Jungmann, too

[zzzmanwitz]

Maldonado is about at the peak of what his value will be. You wouldn't trade our backup catcher to someone who views him as a starter? I will be disappointed if they don't trade him this off season. Sorry for being off topic....

[RockCoCougars]

Frankly, the only guy that I wouldn't listen to trade talk on at this point would be Braun.

 

I wouldn't trade Braun, Fiers, Gallardo or Maldonado. Anyone else I would be open to discussing. I'd be very reluctant to trade Thornburg, Bradley, Nelson, Peralta, Gennett or Jungmann, too

 

I actually thought about Fiers and Maldonado as well, but to be honest even though I'd have to be blown away- their value may not ever get any higher. As for Gallardo, I'd actually talk about him right now. Without a ton of luck, I don't think that the Brewers will be competitive for the next few seasons. It's quite likely that by the time they are ready to compete again, Gallardo's contract will be almost up. At that point, we could be in the same boat as we have been with CC, Prince, or ZG.... either that, or (hopefully not) Gallardo will have had some injuries or will have been ineffective- his contract a burden. Now may be as good a time as any to look into moving him.

[Thurston Fluff]

They can do the buyout on the option and then re-negotiate a lower deal if they want to bring Wolf back, probably.

 

 

$8.5 million actually. We are on the hook for $1.5 million either way. I'm not sure how much better a starter you get for that price. If Marcum wants to come back at that price I'd be all for it. If not Wolf isn't as bad as he gets labeled IMHO. He isn't Suppan nor was his contract nearly as bad.

Last off season, the following players signed contracts:

 

Erik Bedard - 1 year/$4.5 million

Bruce Chen - 2 years/$9 million

Capuano - 2 years / $10 million

Colon - 1 year/ $900,000

Aaron Harang - 2/$12 million

Kuroda - 1 year / $10 million

Malhom - 1 year / $4.75 million

Joe Saunders - 1 year / $6 million

Edwin Jackson - 1 year / $11 million

 

Is that supposed to be a list of pitchers who are a better bet for the money? Take away hindsight and tell me which guy was a better risk than Wolf going into the season. Bedard's high water mark for innings pitched the prior three season's was 101.1 innings. Chen 155 with about the same ERA as Wolf. We know Cappy's history. Colon was 164.1. Harang 170.2. Kuroda 202 but coming off an injury last season. Maholm 185.1 and declined three years running. Sanders 202 but surrounded by years under 100 innings pitched. Jackson 121.2. All of them had problems staying healthy and only three of them would cost less than $8.5 million. You may notice that list doesn't include anyone who hasn't had an injury issue in the past several season's. There is value to durability and that according to that list is above $10 million.

 

I've probably missed some guys. But the point is, there are FAR better options at $8.5 million available than Randy Wolf.

 

Not in free agency there aren't. Your list sort of proves that.

 

You keep saying this, but it doesn't make it true. Wolf had a 0.8 WAR 2 years ago and a 1.5 WAR last season,

 

What does that have to do with how much value he has going forward? Frankly any stat that tells you a guy who pitched 212.1 innings in 33 starts and had an ERA of 3.69 is only worth 1.5 wins above a AAAA scrub just proved it's worth. Or, more to the point, lack of worth. WAR is a pretty useless stat to begin with and even worse when you try to use it for predicting future value.

[paul253]

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/333296-rangers-getting-desperate-for-hamels?sct=mlb_bf1_a4&eref=fromSI&eref=fromSI

 

This article suggests Philly is making "outrageous" demands from Texas for Cole Hamels. I'm not sure what this entails but Melvin should use it to his advantage. Assuming Texas is interested in Greinke Melvin should approach them with a realistic offer. Mike Olt and a lower level pitching prospect I think is a reasonable offer. Cody Buckel has been striking out a ton of guys but has struggled a bit since being promoted to AA. Olt and Buckel seems like a reasonable offer.

[SRB]

Am I the only one who would almost rather have Leonys Martin (CF) than Olt? Plus defender (maybe a bit below Gomez) but he can actually hit -- .961 OPS in AAA before he got called up this season. I would trade Greinke for Martin plus one of the Rangers' top pitching prospects plus a high-upside player in the low-minors.

 

Then you can trade Gomez or use him as a 4th OF, move Hart to 1B, and the 2013 (and beyond) lineup is set, so the team could spend every penny coming off the books this offseason on a SS and SP/RP.

 

RF-Aoki

CF-Martin

LF-Braun

3B-Ramirez

1B-Hart

2B-Weeks

C-Lucroy

SS-

SP-Gallardo

[sixtolezcano16]

All of them had problems staying healthy and only three of them would cost less than $8.5 million.

 

Actually I count 7 pitchers from that list that are less than $8.5 million.

[xisxisxis]

Not in free agency there aren't. Your list sort of proves that.

 

Everyone of those players on that list has a better WAR than Wolf does this year. That list PROVES there were better options last year and most likely there will be better options next year. Wolf is aging and is crappy. Randy Wolf moving forward = Jeff Suppan.

 

The Brewers need to 1) get younger with 2) players that are decent or have decent upside.

[JosephC]

I've never heard any criticism regarding Olt's bat-speed. As far as I know it's actually a plus. Big knocks on Olt is that he'll go through stretches where he struggles with off-speed pitches and he's a minus-minus runner. Outside of those two things he appears to be pretty solid across the board. Of course any prospect could turn out to be a huge stiff, but my gut feeling is that if Olt is a disappointment he'll still hit enough homers and draw enough walks to keep a respectable OBP and justify his spot in the lineup. Maybe will turn out to be a bit disappointing with the batting average and will strike out more than you would like...but what he can do offensively combined with what should be plus-defense would still make him a solid player.

[thebruce44]

You keep saying this, but it doesn't make it true. Wolf had a 0.8 WAR 2 years ago and a 1.5 WAR last season,

 

What does that have to do with how much value he has going forward? Frankly any stat that tells you a guy who pitched 212.1 innings in 33 starts and had an ERA of 3.69 is only worth 1.5 wins above a AAAA scrub just proved it's worth. Or, more to the point, lack of worth. WAR is a pretty useless stat to begin with and even worse when you try to use it for predicting future value.

 

Yes, why would we look at past performance to estimate future success. And while we're at it, lets just discount any evidence that doesn't match up with our preconceived notions. Okay, you want to look only at ERA since WAR is worthless. 5.46. No thanks.

[Eye Black]

Olt strikes out roughly 1 in every 4 plate appearances in AA ball, which is about the pace that he's had for his career. Find me another guy that struck out at that clip in the minors and then became a stud hitter in the majors. The best comparison that I could think of would be Russell Branyan. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of the muscle, but I'm not sure that he had the career that some are projecting for Olt.

Prince Fielder struck out in 20% (rounded) of his MiLB plate appearances. Joey Votto's rate was 22%. Ryan Howard's rate was 27%. Those are just three guys I checked out off the top of my head. Olt's current (career MiLB) clip is 24%.

 

Fielder's MiLB strikeout rate per PA was actually only 16.5 percent. Those other guys are correct though.

[Oldcity]

Greinke looking great through six innings. Just what the Brewers needed. Great news--I imagine there will be plenty of interest, starting tonight even.

[brettac1]

Well, he doesn't seem injured. Let the real rumors begin.

[SRB]

Any teams looking for a DH?

[hawing]

How many tools has Zack displayed tonight? Pitching, hitting for power, defense.

[torts]

im goinmg to miss you greinke

[Kelbysdaddy]

welcome to the greinke showcase! the gun show is to your right. dude is killing it tonight!

[502 to Right]

Brian Anderson - "It looks like Greinke is done after 7 innings. Curious"

 

No, actually it's not curious. It's smart. Doug Melvin was able to prove to other GM's that there's nothing wrong with Greinke that he's still a top echelon pitcher. Let the offers roll in.

 

Having him pitch the 8th would only give him a chance to crap the bed. No thanks.

[NievesNoNO]

Well, what needed to happen, did. I expect Zack to be gone by tomorrow evening. It would be foolish for the Brewers to pitch him again. Let the bidding begin!