The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 3)

[paul253]

Nice try, Randy.

 

Ha....nice

[gregmag]

and Delgado is arguably a top 20 prospect, fyi.

 

If people admit that players like Delgado and Turner are good, young pitchers, then they would have to admit that good, young pitchers are actually traded. This would then poke holes in the arguement that Melvin could not possibly have traded for good, young pitchers over the past decade because good, young pitchers are never traded. This then dominoes into "the only way we could make the playoffs was to trade our farm system for veterans," and "since you can't prove other trade possibilities existed, then they didn't exist."

 

Melvin chose to always trade prospects for vets and not the other way around. Now we're in the situation where we are pretty much forced to trade at least one sought-after vet in Greinke and I hope Melvin is able to do a god job. I'll be upset (but not completely surprised) if he ends up with a couple of "low ceiling" guys who already have a few years of MLB experience and we hear the justification as "we think with guys like Braun, Hart and Ramirez that we can really compete for the playoffs next year, and the guys we got can step right in and help right away."

Your logic here doesn't work, IMHO. You seem to be arguing that, because a couple of particular teams in 2012 are, or are rumored to be, trading good, young pitchers in a couple of particular deals, we should assume as fact that Doug Melvin at particular points in the past had the option to acquire comparably good, young pitchers for particular players.

 

That argument has several big holes in it. First, we're talking about different time frames. General trading practices and particular trade scenarios both change over time. If you could point to "good, young" pitchers that were traded around the same times as the Melvin deals you're thinking of, you would have more of a leg to stand on. But, second, we'd still be talking about different deals. The fact that Ryan Dempster -- a good, veteran pitcher -- can bring back a good, young pitcher in trade doesn't tell us a whole lot about whether, say, Carlos Lee or Matt LaPorta / Michael Brantley could have brought back that kind of pitcher. Third, "good, young pitcher" may be too broad a frame of reference. Let's say LaPorta / Brantley could have brought back a Delgado type in July 2008. Do you make that trade -- add nothing much to the present team when you're contending for a playoff spot? This is the kind of question that ties me in knots, but there's at least a strong argument that you shouldn't make that deal. So then you aren't going to settle for a Delgado. Instead, you want a young, cost-controlled pitcher who can improve your rotation right away, which is a lot more expensive commodity. It's Zach Greinke in the 2010 offseason, basically.

 

You're right that no one should claim that Melvin absolutely could not have substituted good, young pitchers for some of the guys he acquired in trades, or acquired such players in different trades. We don't know. The best we can do is look at the available evidence to make comparisons. I think the weight of the evidence suggests that trades for good, young pitchers (and other good, young players) are hard to make, and I don't think your argument does anything to advance the opposite view.

 

BTW, it's been a while, but remember when DM traded Richie Sexson for a package built around Chris Capuano and Jorge De la Rosa? Most people who criticized that trade said that it was a quantity over quality trade. But it included two starting pitchers who had their rookie seasons as Brewers and ended up having significant MLB success as mid-rotation types, though with a lot of injuries for both and, in JDLR's case, not at all with the Brewers. I don't know what, if anything, that proves . . . maybe that (a) DM at least once managed to trade a vet for good, young pitchers, and (b) getting good, young pitchers in trades can have its ups and downs.

[xisxisxis]

let Marcum just have wolf's money

 

My fear is that if they could extend Marcum for 1 year, then Dougie would be inclined to pick up Wolf's option so that he can roll the dice again. While I like the idea of another year of Marcum, I am terrified of another year of Wolf.

[monty57]

Your logic here doesn't work, IMHO. You seem to be arguing that, because a couple of particular teams in 2012 are, or are rumored to be, trading good, young pitchers in a couple of particular deals, we should assume as fact that Doug Melvin at particular points in the past had the option to acquire comparably good, young pitchers for particular players.

 

I've just seen thousands of posts saying that young pitching is never traded, and anytime anyone mentions that Melvin should go after young pitching the response is "I'm sure he tried, but good young pitching isn't traded, so we did the only thing we could do, which is trade the farm for former Cy Young winners." The suggestor is then told "you can't prove he didn't try" which is the presumptive close of the arguement.

 

This season, we were told by the talking heads that no one would give up anything of value due to the new CBA, and here we are with two top pitching prospects traded (one of the trades apparently nixed by a no-trade clause). Of course I can't prove something that didn't happen, but Melvin has had talented players on the roster who could have been traded at some point, and it would seem reasonable to believe that had he chosen to go that path, he could have made trades for young pitchers.

 

Unless, of course you believe as does Bnowell4evr, that...

 

Sorry to interrupt your little rant with facts but pitching gets pitching in return.

 

Which would imply that the "fact" is that there has never been a position player-for-pitcher trade made in the MLB. Interesting concept, which if true would mean that we couldn't trade Greinke for Olt, because in order to get a pitcher, you need to trade pitching and Olt is a 3B. Good thing it's not really a fact, because it would be upsetting to know that we couldn't trade Braun for a pitcher. That would really limit his value.

 

I'd say the real "fact" is that value gets value in return. If one GM has a pitcher and needs a position player, he will work a deal with someone who has a suitable position player and is looking for a pitcher.

[molitor fan]

Texas is doing a great job of riding the storm of over-valuing their prospects like the Yankees are notorious for doing. I have zero, zilch, nada idea as to why people are salivating over OLT. 24 next month, in a hitters league, no doubles power whatsoever, limited athletic ability with zero speed.....jeesh....way over-rated in my opinion. Justin Smoak part II.

[zzzmanwitz]

In his minor league career, Olt averages a HR every 20 PAs, that number shrinks to a HR every 14.6 PAs in AA. Smoak has a career minor league ratio of a HR every 32.2 PAs, 37.8 in AA. I'm not saying its the end all be all of stats, but based on that, it seems like Olt has a bit more power than Smoak. Olt career OPS - .914, Smoak - .859.

 

Smoak also only played 1B. Olt has played 1B/3B/RF (2 games) in his minor league career.

 

Could he be Smoak part 2, sure, but the numbers say a different story.

[adamds22]

Texas is doing a great job of riding the storm of over-valuing their prospects like the Yankees are notorious for doing. I have zero, zilch, nada idea as to why people are salivating over OLT. 24 next month, in a hitters league, no doubles power whatsoever, limited athletic ability with zero speed.....jeesh....way over-rated in my opinion. Justin Smoak part II.

 

Plus he strikes out a lot, can't imagine having a lineup with Olt, Weeks and Hart. We'd be a strikeout machine.

[zzzmanwitz]

I will take a guy that strikes out a lot that gets on base at a .402 clip.

[adamds22]

If that were his MLB on base % I would agree with you.

[Thurston Fluff]

They can do the buyout on the option and then re-negotiate a lower deal if they want to bring Wolf back, probably.

 

Maybe but I don't think Wolf is going to be as cheap as you think. To make it a wash they would have to sign him for less than $8.5 million. He's pretty durable, has over 200 innings per year over the length of the contract and has actually produced pretty well over his past two seasons. You don't just average an ERA around 4 with one of the worst defenses in the league for two years without some ability. Granted this season so far he's less than stellar but he has been pretty good as of late and if he puts together a good second half after a poor first half like he did in 10 he'll get more years or more for one year.

Frankly if free agents ever got as little as people think they would on this board maybe it would be worth letting him walk and renegotiate. But every year pretty much everyone is surprised by how much average players get. Why would this season be different? Even if he only gets something like $7.5 million is that enough to risk losing him when we have to replace so many pitchers? If Marcum is brought back on a one year deal it all changes. I'm simply looking at all the options and Wolf looks to be someone who we can control for a single season at a reasonable cost while waiting for the youngsters to show what they have.

 

Or an even better idea than that is lighting $10 million on fire.

 

$8.5 million actually. We are on the hook for $1.5 million either way. I'm not sure how much better a starter you get for that price. If Marcum wants to come back at that price I'd be all for it. If not Wolf isn't as bad as he gets labeled IMHO. He isn't Suppan nor was his contract nearly as bad.

 

I'd still rather promote a lefty from Nashville. He won't be much worse than Wolf and you can season him in hopes of bettering him.

 

Which lefty in Nashville has the ability to eat 200 innings start every fifth day and give the team a reasonable chance at winning in games he pitchers more often than not? 33 year old Juan Perez? He's the only one on the 40 man now other than Parra, Narveson and Wolf. It's easy to say just bring in anyone and he'll be nearly as good but that doesn't make it true.

[zzzmanwitz]

Its all just projection if you are looking at minor league stats. I don't think he's going to come up and blast 26 HRs in half a season either, but success in the minors is a better indication of success in the majors than failure in the minors.

[reillymcshane]

Or you just pick up Wolf's option.

 

Nice try, Randy.

yeah, i think we can do better at $8.5 million.

[Bnowell4evr]

Which would imply that the "fact" is that there has never been a position player-for-pitcher trade made in the MLB. Interesting concept, which if true would mean that we couldn't trade Greinke for Olt, because in order to get a pitcher, you need to trade pitching and Olt is a 3B. Good thing it's not really a fact, because it would be upsetting to know that we couldn't trade Braun for a pitcher. That would really limit his value.

 

I'd say the real "fact" is that value gets value in return. If one GM has a pitcher and needs a position player, he will work a deal with someone who has a suitable position player and is looking for a pitcher.

 

The point I was trying to make is that most teams that get young pitching in trades are usually giving up a talented veteran pitcher in the first place. It's different when you get to the trade deadline in the pitchers FA to be year because at that point you're just trying to get more value than the comp picks you'd otherwise receive.

 

Of course there has been trades for positional players and pitchers but what deals have we really had on the table? Prince Fielder for Daniel Hudson? Corey Hart for a Brandon Beachy? I'd rather have our 2011 season than a couple pitchers recovering from Tommy John. I know you blasted the Carlos Lee trade a couple times but I look at that rental trade in a different perspective. If we had kept him we would have only received two comp picks but we traded him for a year and a half of Francisco Cordero and two comps picks so Its not like we traded down when you look at the actual value of the trade. I know there was some rumored deals on the table for names like Ervin Santana but without any real proof that he was really offered I can't get upset.

 

The only trade I really feel Melvin botched was the Lawrie for Marcum deal when other teams were shocked that Lawrie was on the block.

[TooLiveBrew]

Texas is doing a great job of riding the storm of over-valuing their prospects like the Yankees are notorious for doing. I have zero, zilch, nada idea as to why people are salivating over OLT. 24 next month, in a hitters league, no doubles power whatsoever, limited athletic ability with zero speed.....jeesh....way over-rated in my opinion. Justin Smoak part II.

No doubles power? You do realize he's hit 26 HR in just 382 PAs so far this season, right? Not much room for more doubles when you're knocking balls over the fence at a clip that translates to 44 HR over 650 PAs. Obviously it's not as simple as to just multiply counting stats out over a projected full-season sample... but if you do with Olt's '12 so far, he's on pace for 26 2B along with his 44 HR pace. And in 2011, with a PA total that equates to roughly half of a full MLB season, he put up a pace to be a 30 2B & 30 HR guy.

 

So in reality, you're talking about a guy whose MiLB power numbers look very good so far, even if you examine his gap power. But you can't examine gap power without also factoring in that Olt's strength & raw power likely mean that some balls he's put in play that would be doubles for other players carry out over the fence for HRs.

[molitor fan]

Z, I appreciate your opinion on this, but when it comes to power hitters, I am a doubles snob.....to me Olt, who is tied for 26th in the league in doubles with 15 has admirable home run power, but the bat speed that is going to be needed in the majors might not be there. To me doubles are a factor of using the lines and power alleys and bring me back to the days of Robin Yount.....

 

Olt is leading the league in OPS, so I may have to slow my anti-Olt roll, but to me Olt is part of a package for Greinke, not a single piece, and conventional wisdom seems to be that even olt is too high an asking price.

 

I hate being sellers.

 

To answer TLB, a to be 24 year old in AA does not strike me as a sure thing when it comes to translating power to mlb.....it is about ability to make adjustments and bat speed as well as that innate power.....

 

To say that he equates to 25 doubles over a full 600 at bat AA season does not hearten me at all

[RockCoCougars]

Olt strikes out roughly 1 in every 4 plate appearances in AA ball, which is about the pace that he's had for his career. Find me another guy that struck out at that clip in the minors and then became a stud hitter in the majors. The best comparison that I could think of would be Russell Branyan. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of the muscle, but I'm not sure that he had the career that some are projecting for Olt.

[reillymcshane]

They can do the buyout on the option and then re-negotiate a lower deal if they want to bring Wolf back, probably.

 

 

$8.5 million actually. We are on the hook for $1.5 million either way. I'm not sure how much better a starter you get for that price. If Marcum wants to come back at that price I'd be all for it. If not Wolf isn't as bad as he gets labeled IMHO. He isn't Suppan nor was his contract nearly as bad.

Last off season, the following players signed contracts:

 

Erik Bedard - 1 year/$4.5 million

Bruce Chen - 2 years/$9 million

Capuano - 2 years / $10 million

Colon - 1 year/ $900,000

Aaron Harang - 2/$12 million

Kuroda - 1 year / $10 million

Malhom - 1 year / $4.75 million

Joe Saunders - 1 year / $6 million

Edwin Jackson - 1 year / $11 million

 

And you could work a trade like the Pirates did for Burnett. They now have him for about $8-9 million of his salary for 2012-13.

 

I've probably missed some guys. But the point is, there are FAR better options at $8.5 million available than Randy Wolf. The guy will be 36 next month. It's extraordinarily unwise to invest $8.5 million in a player that age who is coming off a poor season. Unless he improves his numbers, he might not even get much more than a minor league deal at this point.

 

I realize that many of the above players, if given the chance, might not have wanted to sign with Milwaukee. But again, the point is that there are far better options than picking up Wolf's option.

 

If you really want Randy Wolf back, you should be able to let him go, then offer him a contract at a much lower rate. Picking up the option should not be considered.

[TheCrew07]

Some players never ascend are the same guy at 27 as they were at 23, some regress, but other young players actually do get better.

 

Trying to apply any kind of statistical comparison between any minor league players is a waste of time because the bottom line is that no one knows what exactly is going on in their head. It's really a disservice to the players when people trying to apply advanced metrics to them, many of these guys are different players one year to the next. Personally I think the way a prospect is trending is and what his ceiling as a player would be are more important than any statistical analysis of the prospect. Certainly as they start to climb the system you'd want to see potential turn into results but just because a player only SLGs for say .425 as a 21 or 22 year old in AA doesn't mean that's all the player will ever be, most men aren't even physically mature until age 24 or 25 much less how much the approach at the plate will progress as a player approaches his statistical peak. A player can always get in the weight room and add more power as well, more and more baseball teams are getting into athlete building like the other sports.

 

Certainly some guys will always just be what they are, like Carlos Gomez, and certainly some prospects will regress like Manny Parra, but how we can say what Mike Olt or any other prospect will be without giving him and extended chance to prove something?

 

Olt may fail and isn't exactly fleet of foot, but there's more to athleticism than speed, over the years some of the best all athletes I've coached ran pretty poor 40 times in football, in the 5 flat range. He's as athletic as Rameriz, if not more so, projects as a plus defender, and is a better hitter than anyone we currently have playing between Wisconsin and Nashville. Even if you want to take away 75 points of OPS because of the TX league (which is very extreme) he's still had a better season than our best hitters and has more positional flexibility.

 

My gut feeling is that Olt would OPS in the upper .800s and in his peak years surpass .900, I'll take 6+ years of that production for 2 months of Greinke every single time.

 

(Khris Davis has just surpassed 100 ABs on the season as is currently posting a .985 OPS, both Olt and Morris are over 300 ABs, as such I didn't think it was fair to include Davis above. However I think he'd make a decent LF which would slide Braun to RF, both Davis and Morris are very limited defensively.)

[owbc]

Seems like it's just a really bad year to be a seller. There are more teams than usual with decent talent to give away, probably because Philly and Miami were gigantic busts this year. Not to mention several other teams including Milwaukee that are looking to move talent.

 

Buying teams are not as willing to unload prospects as they were a few years ago. The new CBA further adds to that. It simply will not be possible for the Brewers to quickly restock for 2014 using trades for high-level prospects.

 

Of course there will always be some teams willing to bite, and there really is no point to keeping Greinke for the next 2 months. So Melvin should take what he can get.

[RockCoCougars]

Erik Bedard - 1 year/$4.5 million

Bruce Chen - 2 years/$9 million

Capuano - 2 years / $10 million

Colon - 1 year/ $900,000

Aaron Harang - 2/$12 million

Kuroda - 1 year / $10 million

Malhom - 1 year / $4.75 million

Joe Saunders - 1 year / $6 million

Edwin Jackson - 1 year / $11 million

 

Wow, depressing. This looks like a list of Brewer free agent targets circa '97. Anyone else think that a total rebuild should start now, as opposed to holding onto a few pieces and then patching a team together next season with guys of this caliber? It feels like we are in the middle of a 2008/2009 stretch, only without Prince. Frankly, the only guy that I wouldn't listen to trade talk on at this point would be Braun.

[TooLiveBrew]

Olt strikes out roughly 1 in every 4 plate appearances in AA ball, which is about the pace that he's had for his career. Find me another guy that struck out at that clip in the minors and then became a stud hitter in the majors. The best comparison that I could think of would be Russell Branyan. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of the muscle, but I'm not sure that he had the career that some are projecting for Olt.

Prince Fielder struck out in 20% (rounded) of his MiLB plate appearances. Joey Votto's rate was 22%. Ryan Howard's rate was 27%. Those are just three guys I checked out off the top of my head. Olt's current (career MiLB) clip is 24%.

[RockCoCougars]

OK, found another comp. I went with a Texas 3B from the past in Dean Palmer. He struck out a ton down in the Texas League too, though he was quite a bit younger. I'm torn on the whole Olt thing, because I'd prefer to get pitching back for ZG.

[NievesNoNO]

Olt strikes out roughly 1 in every 4 plate appearances in AA ball, which is about the pace that he's had for his career. Find me another guy that struck out at that clip in the minors and then became a stud hitter in the majors. The best comparison that I could think of would be Russell Branyan. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of the muscle, but I'm not sure that he had the career that some are projecting for Olt.

 

Stanton.

 

I think you make a fair point. Generally a high strike out rate can be a cause for concern when transitioning to the majors but I wouldn't say that it eliminates a player from ending up a high end hitter. Olt does look to have a decent walk rate so that negates some of the K%. Also, I think there is less emphasis on being a contact hitter now days so it's possible that if he needed to make contact more often he could.... but why at this point, especially if it might negate some of his power.

 

I'm not saying he's THE guy the Brewers should target. I have no info besides internet scouting reports but he does seem like a logical target who MLB people seem to be pretty high on.

[monty57]

I understand where Thurston is coming from. Anyone you sign on a one-year deal is going to have some warts. That's why they're willing to sign one-year deals. I hope we can get Marcum on the rumored one-year deal, as his "warts" are far more acceptable than most.

 

I also think we will pick up at least one of our 2013 starters in a trade prior to next season. Gallardo, Marcum, {guy from trade}, Fiers, Estrada isn't bad for a "rebuild year." If we can't retain Marcum, then I would probably just give Thornburg/Peralta a shot at the #5 starter.

 

Wolf isn't as bad as some make him out to be, but I don't think it's worth the $8.5MM for the 2013 Brewers to take the risk.

[trwi7]

Olt strikes out roughly 1 in every 4 plate appearances in AA ball, which is about the pace that he's had for his career. Find me another guy that struck out at that clip in the minors and then became a stud hitter in the majors. The best comparison that I could think of would be Russell Branyan. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of the muscle, but I'm not sure that he had the career that some are projecting for Olt.

 

You obviously didn't look very hard. Took me about 30 seconds to get Joey Votto.