The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 3)

[adambr2]

Well, let's start with what we know for sure. Aoki, Braun, Estrada, Fiers, Gallardo, Gamel, Hart, Lucroy, Maldanado, Ramirez, Ransom, Thornburg or Peralta, and Weeks are all under team commitment or contract and project on the 25 man roster next year. Wolf has a $1.5M buyout, and I'm assuming 500K each for the pre-arby guys, so if I'm off on those, it's not going to be more than a couple hundred thousand total. Altogether that's 13 guys, and $53,900,000. I'm going to project Fiers to the rotation, and ONE of Thornburg and Peralta in MLB battling with Estrada for a rotation spot with one going to the rotation and the other to the bullpen, and the other of Thornburg and Peralta in AAA, and Gamel back at 1B and Hart in RF.

 

Now the arby guys are Axford, Gomez, Ishikawa, Kottaras, Morgan, Parra, and Narveson.

 

Of that group, I expect them to hold onto Axford, Parra, and Gomez, and IF healthy, Narveson. These are more "guess" figures, but I will say $2.75M for Axford, $2.75M for Gomez, and $2.5M for Parra, and $2M for Narveson, for a total of $10M, which brings the total up to $63,900,000.

 

So that's 17 guys, and the remaining 8 needs are 1 starting SS, 1 SP, 4 bullpen spots, and 2 bench spots. The 2 bench spots can easily be filled by guys like Schafer and Green for 500K each (total $64,900,000).

 

Looks to me like they've got at least $30M or so to find a starting SS, a top notch starting SP, and fill out the bullpen. I don't see a financial issue for next year.

 

And before anyone says they think Jungmann or Bradley will be in the rotation next year, or Marcum will be re-signed for $10M a year, or Narveson won't be back, or Axford will make more than $2.75 in arbitration, that's fine, I really have no idea. I'm just doing the best I can here, it's tough to make a 25 man roster projection 9 months before it comes out.

 

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Continued from:

 

viewtopic.php?p=803635#p803635

 

Original Lead:

 

viewtopic.php?t=28549

[adambr2]

I'd be comfortable with a rotation of Greinke, Gallardo, Narveson, Estrada, and Fiers, with Peralta, Rogers, and Nelson as your "extra" starters. It wouldn't make the Brewers favorites, but we would still be contenders. If they slightly overachieve for the first half, then you become buyers next summer to make a playoff push, and if they underachieve you sell everybody off. I'd be fine with trading Greinke right now as well, but I really think that everybody around here is going to be very disappointed at the return. You only get one compensation pick for losing a class A free agent now, right? That really knocks his trade value down.

 

WE only get one pick for him. Anyone else who trades for him gets nothing if they lose him.

[SRB]

Looks to me like they've got at least $30M or so to find a starting SS, a top notch starting SP, and fill out the bullpen. I don't see a financial issue for next year.

Your estimate does actually give me more hope, as it gives them more room than when I was estimating it (but I think you numbers are mostly reasonable). Don't you think they need 2 SP though, Gallardo-____-____-Fiers-Thornburg? Giving $20m to Greinke means you have $10m to spend on a starting SS that isn't horrible, a mid-rotation SP, and possibly some bullpen pieces, which is going to be tricky.

 

If they manage to extend Greinke I think they should try to go for it in 2013 again; trade for Yunel Escobar ($5m contract, very good value right now; being undervalued it seems), sign innings-eater at around $5-6 million (e.g. Joe Saunders?), pray Axford improves.

 

RF-Aoki

2B-Weeks

LF-Braun

3B-Ramirez

1B-Hart

SS-Escobar

C-Lucroy

CF-Gomez

 

SP-Greinke

SP-Gallardo

SP-Saunders

SP-Thornburg

SP-Fiers

 

I think that's a playoff caliber team.

[FVBrewerFan]

I just don't see how the Brewers can afford Greinke at $100+ million.

 

Just looking at 2013, adding together guaranteed payroll and estimated arbitration, you have around $76 million committed to returning players. If you give Greinke $20-23 million, you have $96-99 million tied up. But you still need to find a starting shortstop (unless you want Ransom/Bianchi as everyday players...), and you basically need to sign 1-2 free agent SP. Fiers has been great but realistically he's probably a #5-type starter, same as Estrada, same as Narveson (who might not even be a regular starter again).

 

There's not enough money to sign Greinke and field a competitive team, imo. And that likely only gets worse in 2014, when A-Ram is suddenly making $16 million and a bunch of players salaries increase via contract or arbitration.

 

*Edit* You are also stuck with a pretty craptastic bullpen, unless a bunch of players turn things around. If Axford doesn't recover, the organization will probably have to pay for a closer next year too.

 

You can trade ARam or Hart and you're down to $85MM or so. And that's on the high end, because I don't think arby pushes the payroll up $10MM.

 

That's true, but can you see Melvin signing Greinke and then trading A-Ram or Hart? Seems unlikely to me.

 

And there are lots of arbitration-eligible players next year: Morgan (ARB2), Loe (ARB3), Veras (ARB3), Gomez (ARB4), Parra (ARB3), Ransom (ARB2), Kottaras (ARB2), Axford (ARB1), Narveson (ARB1), Estrada (ARB1)

 

Most of those players will be making a few million via arbitration. I was actually conservative by assuming Loe & others will be non-tendered.

 

Normally, no, I couldn't see Melvin trading ARam or Hart. But if Greinke agrees to the deal, he may be forced to trade one and roll the dice with Gamel or Green. Or even Hunter Morris. (Now THAT would be unlike Melvin.)

 

Also, I don't think Loe will be the only one non-tendered. Morgan and Ransom for sure. Probably Kottaras. Veras.......maybe.

 

Bottom line, they do have ways to shed salary and/or avoid adding salary.

[FVBrewerFan]

Narveson will not be a #3 type starter, ever, especially coming off multiple surgeries. I'm not sure I understand the love for this guy on this board.

 

Did people forget how serious his injuries/surgeries were?

 

He can not be counted on to fill a rotation spot in 2013, just can't...

 

Yea, I don't get it. No guarantee he'll even be ready by Spring Training, and if he is it will take a while to build his innings back up. All while avoiding re-injury, not losing any velocity (which he can't afford to lose.) I'm fine with Narvy, and if he can eventually make it back that would be nice. But it no way should he be discussed as part of the rotation for next year.

[TooLiveBrew]

5 years and $112M is $22,400,000 per season, it's a more than a fair and generous offer for a starting pitcher that has had one season in his career with an ERA under 3.47.

 

If Greinke wishes not to accept it, it's time for Melvin to shake his hand, wish him the best of luck in free agency, and end contract negotiations right there, as 5/$112 is no doubt already pushing the upper limits of what they're comfortable offering him.

EDIT: phone let me post the quoted part before nixing my efforts, at least.

 

Heading into 2011, the Tigers had a pitcher whose lowest single-season ERA was 3.37, with a career ERA in the high 3s... despite pitching half his career IP at Comerica, one of the best pitchers parks in recent memory. Surely this pitcher would never be discused as being in Matt Cain territory, and anyone who would've argued that he'd not only win a CY but also the MVP would have been a fool!

[And That]

If the Brewers can get creative and sign him for 4/$90mil plus a vesting option at 1/$30mil given 675 innings, I'd love to keep him. He's too good not to try to keep. I have the feeling they'll never get commiserate value, and they aren't that far out, so why not keep him and find out over the next few months?

[HomeBrew19]

If the price tag is going to be in the $20M/year range, my hope is that Greinke doesn't sign an extension with the Brewers. In order to justify the contract, he'd have to pitch at a bona-fide all-star level year in and year out for the duration of the contract, and I just don't foresee that happening. I think he'll continue to be a very good (low-end #1/high-end #2) starting pitcher for several years to come, but I don't think that's good enough to justify a contract of that size, particularly for a small-market club with little margin for error.

 

I'd prefer the Brewers to shop Greinke for the best offer, and if no solid offers are received, I'd be fine with letting him walk at the end of the season in exchange for the compensatory pick. Likewise, I'd like to see Melvin offer an extension to Shaun Marcum in the neighborhood of $10M/year for 3 years. If that would get it done, the Brewers could go into the 2013 season with a starting rotation consisting of Gallardo, Marcum, Fiers, Estrada and Thornburg/Peralta/Rogers/Narveson (if healthy), with the odd men out being utilized in the bullpen or stashed in AAA for depth in the starting rotation. Such a rotation would cost the Brewers less than $20M next season, leaving the Brewers some much-needed flexibility to fill out the roster.

[logan82]

Well considering the Brewers have been in contenttion virtually every year since the Carlos Lee trade it makes sense that Melvin hasn't traded off MLB pieces that have value. After all he is trying to win games. An MLB GM is not about to trade a proven vet that can help his team make the playoffs for a prospect that may or may not pan out.

 

I can't fault Melvin for not "selling high" on guys because the Brewers have been competitive and selling off good/high value players during a period of success doesn't make a whole lot of sense (In the near term while trying to make the playoffs).

2010 was the perfect time to begin a rebuild and work to build a solid franchise for years to come. Lots of good young talent with Fielder and Hart as good available trade pieces. Instead we went the other way and gutted the farm system. We were not contenders in either 2009 or 2010. Melvin and many fans got a taste in 2008 and have been addicted ever since.

[miggs721]

Well if he doesnt accept 112.5 miilion or whatever our offer is/was, it's time to trade him.

[fondybrewfan]

And of course 2011 would have never happened either

[endaround]

Narveson will not be a #3 type starter, ever, especially coming off multiple surgeries. I'm not sure I understand the love for this guy on this board.

 

Did people forget how serious his injuries/surgeries were?

 

He can not be counted on to fill a rotation spot in 2013, just can't...

 

I think people forget that Narveson is 30. He was a decent #5 starter but his starting days were numbered as it was. If he can back and be a LH relief pitcher in the future that would be a great achievement. There is a very good chance his career is over.

[crossface21]

A lot of people want the Brewers to just continually get the farm system better with draft picks and by trading away proven talent at the MLB level. Lets not forget that when the Brewers had the top farm system in the early to mid 2000's, they still needed to trade away some of that MiLB talent, to get MLB talent so they could get over the hump and make a run at the playoffs. I understand why the farm system needs to be good, I get all that. But it seems that some people will only be happy if the farm system is stocked with great MiLB players, but who knows what's going to happen at the MLB level. I'm perfectly fine with what DM traded away the last 4-5 years to get where the Brewers are today. Does is stink that there's not a ton on the farm now? Sure, but it'll get replenished one way or the other within 2-4 years(if the Brewers draft well). But the alternative is probably a team that is running on it's 30th year of not making the playoffs. And as much as some people believe that the Brewers are still in it or out of it this year, isn't this the 5th or 6th straight year that we're talking playoffs in MKE near the trade deadline, as opposed to the Packer training camp? Who would have ever thought THAT was possible 10-15 years ago.

[logan82]

And of course 2011 would have never happened either

Hindsight is 20/20. We may have had a better team starting this year and continuing for several years if we had gone the other route. When the trades were made the playoffs were not a sure ting.

[jjfanec]

And of course 2011 would have never happened either

Hindsight is 20/20. We may have had a better team starting this year and continuing for several years if we had gone the other route. When the trades were made the playoffs were not a sure ting.

 

How would have this years team been that much better? What starting pitcher were we going to overpay for? ARam has been better than Lawrie. Escobar would have been an upgrade to what we currently have at SS but Gonzalez was doing some really nice things before he went down. Odorizzi would not help this year.

 

I guess I would just have to hear what SP we would have gotten.

[3and2Fastball]

I always find it interesting when Brett Lawrie is talked about in terms of "what if" as a Brewers 3B, if he hadn't been traded. Even Doug Melvin did it recently in an interview. That is pure revisionist history.

 

There is no indication that the Brewers ever even conceived of Lawrie as a 3B. He never even played one inning of 3B in the Brewers system. When the Brewers traded Lawrie for Marcum, Melvin said that Lawrie was blocked at 2B by Rickie Weeks

[YoungGeezy]

Hate to say it because I love Greinke but think if he is not going to commit, we need to trade him and try to get something. We have Thorny, Peralta, Rogers who all need some starts before we can even hope to rely on them next year. Realistically Grinke and Marcum could be gone, I prefer not to have Wolf for 11 or so million for another year, Narvey may not come back to where he was, and our rotation could be hurting bad. Estrada and Fiers have been outstanding of late, Yo is usual Yo and our front man but next year scares me right now.

 

Thorny needs more work to develop life on fastball and also could greatly benefit from a cutter in off-season

 

Peralta in ST and small opportunity has not been able to to shine or show his potential

 

Rogers has proved something in his small opportunity but guy just needs to stay healthy and throw some strikes.

 

Nelson could be ready mid 2013 but 2014 is more realistic

 

Can't judge Jungmann until AA, vey well could be Heckathorn pt. 2. The fact he has notshown any ability to miss bats worries me a bit

 

Bradley, was so high on but wow....has he been bad since April/early May

 

Bucci lost almost a whole season

 

Scarpetta did lose a whole season

 

Gagnon is to early to tell

 

So really we need if we can get a good young arm for Greinke or even a SS it would be hard to turn away if he plans to walk anyway.

[Oldcity]

If the Brewers can get creative and sign him for 4/$90mil plus a vesting option at 1/$30mil given 675 innings, I'd love to keep him. He's too good not to try to keep. I have the feeling they'll never get commiserate value, and they aren't that far out, so why not keep him and find out over the next few months?

 

Sure, but why would he sign that when he'll be able to get $120 mil+ guaranteed?

[3and2Fastball]

Just a pure guess/hunch but I think Greinke & his wife want to go back to Kansas City, and I'm predicting he'll sign with the Royals in the off-season.

 

The Brewers should continue to try to extend him, but trade him if they can't

[PrinceEatMeat]

Just a pure guess/hunch but I think Greinke & his wife want to go back to Kansas City, and I'm predicting he'll sign with the Royals in the off-season.

 

The Brewers should continue to try to extend him, but trade him if they can't

 

Seeing as the whole reason he left in the first place was because he wanted to play for a winner, I'd say that's highly doubtful. The Royals have a lot of promising young players, but they won't compete any time soon.

[502 to Right]

If the Brewers can get creative and sign him for 4/$90mil plus a vesting option at 1/$30mil given 675 innings, I'd love to keep him. He's too good not to try to keep. I have the feeling they'll never get commiserate value, and they aren't that far out, so why not keep him and find out over the next few months?

 

Sure, but why would he sign that when he'll be able to get $120 mil+ guaranteed?

 

 

There's no guarantee a team would give him $120+ this off season. There is a guarantee that the Brewers will give him whatever has already been offered. There's also the chance that Greinke suffers a significant injury during the remainder of the season.

 

I think Greinke would be a fool to turn down $100+ from the Brewers. But if he does, you can't blame the Brewers.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

If he stays healthy, the Brewers just put a floor on what he'll get. The offer from the Brewers will likely still be there, unless DM uses that money elsewhere. Most of baseball has more dough than the Brewers. This is the problem the Brewers have had with FAs. Overpay or they just shop the offer to a place they'd rather be.

 

The offer is there, he has a week to decide, if he doesn't accept just move on.

[splitterpfj]

The Phillies moved up from a 5-year offer to Hamels...to 6 years, and it sounds as though he'll stay in Philly. The total dollars will be in the 130M range.

 

Two things...if he signs, that helps the Brewers in their efforts to trade Greinke, but if he signs, that may hurt the Brewers in their efforts to sign Greinke.

 

I do think Hamels will sign.

[HiAndTight]

And of course 2011 would have never happened either

Hindsight is 20/20. We may have had a better team starting this year and continuing for several years if we had gone the other route. When the trades were made the playoffs were not a sure ting.

 

How would have this years team been that much better? What starting pitcher were we going to overpay for? ARam has been better than Lawrie. Escobar would have been an upgrade to what we currently have at SS but Gonzalez was doing some really nice things before he went down. Odorizzi would not help this year.

 

I guess I would just have to hear what SP we would have gotten.

 

AND CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS.

 

And Aram's been almost dead even with Lawrie. So that's been a wash.

 

Escobar at SS and hitting .313/.353

Lawrie, who again I'd like to remind the crowd is Canadian and didn't grow up in SoCal and then play college in Miami is performing very well at 3rd base at the same age Braun was in A+ and AA ball.

 

Odorizzi is one of the top prospects in the game on the mound right now.

 

And we have 36 million saved for what amounts to equal production from Aram, 4.5 million saved from Gonzalez, Greinke at 27 million, Marcum's cost about 14 I believe.

 

So that's 80 million dollars we WOULDN'T have spent, and one incredible young left side of the IF for the next 5-6+ years, and Odorizzi, Thornburg, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson and several other pitchers on their way up.

 

 

I continue to think the Marcum trade was absolutely terrible, but I'm also alright with what they gave up for Greinke. Of course added into what we do have is 4 likely draft picks.

 

But the Marcum trade is particularly baffling. A soft tosser and a perpetual injury risk for Lawrie is, was and always will be a terrible trade.

 

So him saying we could have been a better team starting this year? Perhaps not. Moving forward? That's just painfully obvious. Even if we do re-sign Greinke..which I'm absolutely in favor of.

 

By the way, did anyone see the comment by Tommy Boy about how the Brewers would front load a contract for Greinke, otherwise it'd be difficult to keep their payroll around 100 million in 2016-2017 and on? Does he really believe that sitting at 106 our payroll is just set here for the next decade?

 

By the way, how exactly do you come to the conclusion that Odorizzi "couldn't have helped the Brewers this year," when Fiers, Peralta, and Thornburg would likely have been behind him as options to be called up?

 

As for who this pitcher is that could have helped us this year? Edwin Jackson. Signed for a whole 1 year at 10 million. And only signed with the Nats because he hung around on the market for so long. 3.6,3.8,3.8 WAR the last 3 seasons. I'm guessing he'd have helped...with 70 million to spare and a vastly improved left side of the IF(because of Escobar and his defense and his .313/.353 line.) He and Aoki would have made a very nice 1-2 in the lineup, Braun, Hart, Lawrie, Weeks, Lucroy/Maldy, CF.

[HiAndTight]

If he stays healthy, the Brewers just put a floor on what he'll get. The offer from the Brewers will likely still be there, unless DM uses that money elsewhere. Most of baseball has more dough than the Brewers. This is the problem the Brewers have had with FAs. Overpay or they just shop the offer to a place they'd rather be.

 

The offer is there, he has a week to decide, if he doesn't accept just move on.

 

 

Do you have anything to back this up?

 

Especially at this point? As in most of baseball has more money to spend than the Brewers? It just doesn't seem to matter what ideas some fans have about the Brewers finances. How they can't spend more than 85 million and they go into the season at 96, how they maxed out last year and now they're spending 106. I don't think "most," of baseball has more "dough," to spend than the Brewers. Especially when you consider even the Yankees are having to make player personal decisions based on the luxury tax, ie, they report that they'd let Swisher walk to stay under the tax.

 

The Phillies won't have more money as they're already spending a ton. Most taken to the literal sense would be 16, but by your wording it seems as though your suggesting we're among the bottom. And the Brewers have proven that just isn't true.

 

They're willing to add to a 106 million dollar payroll, they have more money coming in next year, AND they they have a ton of money coming off the payroll.

 

Again, you're ignoring the teams that have spent themselves out of a 120 million dollar contract. The Angels, Yankees, Phillies, White Sox, Braves...then just the teams that simply can't afford it.