The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 4)

[Dollarbill13]

also, Santana is a FA this offseason. seriously, why would the brewers trade for someone they might not even keep???

 

So we can get a better draft pick.

[Hate those Rodents]

Gentlemen, I don't think we are getting those all three of Segura, Richards, and Cowart for just Greinke. So you throw them Ramirez too and you take on a little salary in Santana, who Doug has liked some in the past anyway.

 

In other words, you get a third very good prospect for Ramirez, provided we take on a little salary (Santana) in a guy Doug may not mind taking a flier on anyway.

[PrinceEatMeat]

There is no point in trading for Santana, which is why it won't happen. We'd have to offer him the one-year deal to be eligible to receive compensation, and that's too risky with how much it would cost. Plus, he actually has an option for next year that requires a $1 million buyout.

[brwrsfan]

Man if Olt could actually play a passable RF. Then it would make sense to send off one of Gomez, Morgan, or Aoki to Texas.

 

Olt is the guy I want; I probably would be happy with others but I would really like to see Olt in a Brewers uniform. He could potentially play 3b, 1b, or RF in 2013 depending on where MIL would need him. I had no idea he could play RF though.

 

I second this, Olt seems to be the prospect we actually have a shot to get.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

That should dispose of that rumor, however, I could completely see Haudricourt being confused or not understanding something about a team's possession of contracts, so...

 

It could also be that the Brewer Nation report just phrased it wrong. Maybe the Brewers really are looking at the contract, but didn't actually "request" it.

 

Who knows, right?

He could have just requested it from an intern who went and pulled it off their database. Don't think this proves anything one way or another.

[Brewers ST920]

In the end Melvin may be trying to free up a little extra room to put in an even larger offer to Greinke during the offseason. After Cliff Lee did it, it isn't crazy to think.

[torts]

There is no point in trading for Santana, which is why it won't happen. We'd have to offer him the one-year deal to be eligible to receive compensation, and that's too risky with how much it would cost. Plus, he actually has an option for next year that requires a $1 million buyout.

 

you cant get compensation for players traded mid-season, only players who start the year on your roster. so offering him arbitration means you just signed him for $12.5 million

[Hate those Rodents]

Maybe my Santana idea is dumb. I figured we'd save about 20 million dollars getting Ramirez's offer off our books (when you consider we absorb Santana) while also getting another top 100 prospect. To me, it makes sense, but I understand why the very mention of the name Santana will make many here dismissive.

[PrinceEatMeat]

There is no point in trading for Santana, which is why it won't happen. We'd have to offer him the one-year deal to be eligible to receive compensation, and that's too risky with how much it would cost. Plus, he actually has an option for next year that requires a $1 million buyout.

 

you cant get compensation for players traded mid-season, only players who start the year on your roster. so offering him arbitration means you just signed him for $12.5 million

 

Yeah, you're right. I wasn't thinking. Makes it even more of a bad idea then. Picking up his $13 million option isn't a good option either.

[Lee16]

Some variation of a Greinke for Olt deal just makes too much sense for both teams to pass up.

 

I hope.

[monty57]

I have no idea if either of these guys are avaiable, but if you could trade Greinke for either Olt or Teheran straight up, which deal would you do?

[Brewers ST920]

I really think Olt makes the most sense. The Brewers could use additional power bats (and bats in general). Although Teheran looks like a #1 or #2 he has struggled with his breaking balls thus far. Both would be decent additions, but Olt would make the biggest impact.

[PrinceEatMeat]

If Olt is out there, and there are good offers for Ramirez, I think Melvin should take Olt and trade Ramirez. That makes the most sense to me. I doubt that whole scenario plays out though, but Olt is still possible.

[paul253]

According to MLBtraderumors it seems to be between the Rangers, Angels, Braves, and White Sox. Since the White Sox don't really have anything we want we can probably eliminate them. That leaves the other three:

 

Angels: Any deal with them would have to include Segura

Rangers: I'd like Olt and Buckel

Braves: I'd probably take either Teheran or Delgado plus some. Pastornicky would probably be a decent throw in to help solve the SS problem and maybe we can talk them into a reliever too.

 

Also, it sounds like Melvin is at least listening to offers to Hart and Ramirez but would have to be overwhlemed. I realize the possibility is next to none but maybe someone will come along and overwhelm us.

[Oldcity]

It would be frustrating to get Olt only to play him in right when the reports are he's very strong defensively at third. If they get Olt, I don't see any logical solution that doesn't involve trading Ramirez.

[PrinceEatMeat]

It would be frustrating to get Olt only to play him in right when the reports are he's very strong defensively at third. If they get Olt, I don't see any logical solution that doesn't involve trading Ramirez.

 

They could start Olt in AAA next year, and trade either Ramirez or Hart either this offseason or by the deadline next year. If not, Olt spends the year in AAA and then steps in in 2014. So it's not completely necessary to trade Ramirez, but I'd like to see it happen still if Olt was acquired.

[3and2Fastball]

I have no idea if either of these guys are avaiable, but if you could trade Greinke for either Olt or Teheran straight up, which deal would you do?

 

Olt. Teheran is a great talent but pitchers can be so "iffy". A 3B with power is very valuable. Neither are lights out for sure prospects. Teheran could end up being a closer if he doesn't figure out the breaking ball. Olt has a possibility of a bust due to his lack of great bat speed.

 

I think Olt projects to be a little like Adam Dunn if Adam Dunn could play 3B, and Teheran projects to be like Rafeal Soriano. Those are my "best case scenario" projections for them. I know a lot of scouts much smarter than I see Teheran as a future MLB ace, so obviously take what I'm saying here with a grain of salt!

[RockCoCougars]

Wouldn't touch Santana with a 10 foot pole.. I'm not too big a fan of Richards, because he has problems throwing strikes... but if they added Walden to the mix (though he's hurt right now), I might bite on Richards/Walden.... I'd even give them their choice of non Axford relievers to even things up.

[SRB]

It would be frustrating to get Olt only to play him in right when the reports are he's very strong defensively at third. If they get Olt, I don't see any logical solution that doesn't involve trading Ramirez.

Most sensible would be to just move A-Ram to 1B and Hart back to RF. I don't know why they didn't do that this season, other than A-Ram not wanting to move (but too bad, I don't think he's that stubborn if Olt comes into the fold).

[TheCrew07]

I have no idea if either of these guys are avaiable, but if you could trade Greinke for either Olt or Teheran straight up, which deal would you do?

 

Just got home so I'm catching up but I think Teheran and Perez are pretty similar boom or bust type prospects. I'm really not convinced that any of our MiLB pitchers at A+ and up will be special, I'd feel much better if we had a trio of pitching prospects like Seattle or AZ at the top. I'd honestly prefer pitching, but I also like Olt quite a bit so I'm torn. I think Olt is the safer choice, but doesn't help solve the team's major need and I just can't bring myself to see Melvin trading for him with established MLB players in front of him everywhere but 1B.

 

With our without Andrus the competitive window comes down to pitching, he doesn't extend the competitive window either way. I like Elvis quite a bit, always have, when they were prospects the argument was always Andrus or Escobar, so I've been following him for a long time. However the Brewers have almost zero chance to retain him given his agent. I'm not into temporary solutions, I want players we'd control for at least 3 seasons, which is one of the reasons I haven't been a fan of very many Melvin trades.

 

My problem is that if Teheran is truly available and he peaks anywhere near his physical ceiling he's going to be very good and I would definitely regret not trading for him, even if the choice was Olt and he performed admirably for us. Given that I don't think we can afford to get back a bust prospect given what we paid to acquire him in the first place I'd like to say I'd be fine with Olt and not look back. It's just that I think we really need 1-2 more young legitimate top of the rotation starters given my apprehension towards Jungmann, Peralta, Nelson, and Bradley.

 

I'm going to say Teheran but it's way closer than I initially thought, we need to take a risk on a young pitcher if we're ever going to get over the pitching hump as an organization.

[dlk9s]

According to MLBtraderumors it seems to be between the Rangers, Angels, Braves, and White Sox. Since the White Sox don't really have anything we want we can probably eliminate them.

If the White Sox get involved, I expect another team to be in on the deal.

[SRB]

According to MLBtraderumors it seems to be between the Rangers, Angels, Braves, and White Sox. Since the White Sox don't really have anything we want we can probably eliminate them.

If the White Sox get involved, I expect another team to be in on the deal.

But who goes to the third team? I was trying to come up with a scenario, but their only tradeable players are major pieces on their major league roster.

[dlk9s]

According to MLBtraderumors it seems to be between the Rangers, Angels, Braves, and White Sox. Since the White Sox don't really have anything we want we can probably eliminate them.

If the White Sox get involved, I expect another team to be in on the deal.

But who goes to the third team? I was trying to come up with a scenario, but their only tradeable players are major pieces on their major league roster.

Don't know. Just saying.

[dlk9s]

They're doing statistical analysis on Greinke on MLB Network right now.

 

In 5 "blow up" innings, he has given up 47% of his runs this season. Wow. I believe the number was 23 runs in those 5 bad innings. 26 runs in all the rest.

[gregmag]

I like Andrus, but we don't need a two-year deal... before you know it, we'll be trying to trade him away and we'll be back looking for a long-term answer at SS. In this scenario, we're trading away 3.5 years of an All Star closer (Axford), 1.5 years of an All Star RF/1B (Hart) and 0.5 years of the top starting pitcher on the market (Greinke) for 2.5 years of Andrus and 3 years of Feliz - 5.5 years of players for 5.5 years of players. No pre-arby talent coming back.

 

I don't look at it in quite the same way. Yes, it's 5.5 player years both ways, but we'd be getting back two young players who are still improving and are still reasonably cheap. In exchange we'd give up half a year of a truly premium pitcher; 1.5 years of a slightly above average 1b on the wrong side of 30 who makes real money; and 3.5 years of a reliever who's having a terrible year, may or may not ever recapture his All-Star form, and even if he does come back strong isn't as important as a rotation anchor or an everyday starter. The strong odds are that the players we'd get are likely to increase in value over the remainder of their present contracts. In contrast, Hart will almost certainly hold steady or lose value over the next 1.5 years, and Axford's hard to predict. If we had to trade Andrus in two years, we'd be back to where we are now -- but we would have gotten two years of Elvis Andrus in the bargain.

 

I'll put it another way, and so that my head doesn't explode I'll confine the point to Greinke / Andrus. Let's say that the two players are likely to have comparable value over the next two years; maybe that's unfair to Greinke, but it's not ridiculous. They both play positions of great need for the Brewers. If you could extend Greinke for two years at Andrus' 2013/2014 salaries, knowing that you'd have to trade him at the end of the two years, and with pretty great confidence that his trade value wouldn't diminish over that time, wouldn't you do it in a heartbeat? If you would, then what's not to like about trading Greinke for Andrus? You get two years of likely premium production, and then you go back to the prospect well with comparable resources to what you have now. Isn't that kind of like borrowing money and getting paid interest for your trouble? What's not to like about that?

 

I'm not actually sure what I think of the Andrus scenario; of course a lot depends on the opportunity cost of cashing in Greinke for Andrus. But the analysis I just sketched out seems at least plausible.