The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 4)

[nate82]

So what would the going rate for an Andrus extension be? He has no power but gets on base at a nice clip and has some speed. I don't know that it would be some absurd number would it?

 

The best comp would be Jose Reyes. So you would have to start there and add 2-3 years to the contract.

[RockCoCougars]

Well, if the Andrus trade somehow does happen, that makes the original deal with K.C. look a lot better. I see Escobar to be a Andrus type player, best case. Giving up Cain, Jeffries, Ozorizzi and 1.5 years of a SS for what they got from Greinke looks pretty good unless Odorizzi develops into a bonafide top of the rotation guy.

[torts]

Talent-wise, obviously I'd love Andrus. But what scares me is that he'd be exactly the type of player I'd expect Melvin to want, and it fits with his patching from year-to-year m.o.

 

Exactly. This fits Melvin's "don't rebuild, reload" approach to player acquisition. Which is hard for a small market team to pull off, and probably impossible long-term, but it sure keeps things exciting. If this happened there'd be a new 2-year window to compete. Hopefully some of our young arms will contribute within that window but I'd still expect Melvin to attempt to shore up the rotation in FA this off-season. I even wouldn't put it past him to deal prospects again to fill holes.

 

2-years also closes the weeks/hart/ramirez windows on this team, and leaves one year left on Gallardo/Lucroy window. so I mean, getting Andrus would finish off the current window we are in right now... barring any of those names getting traded

[SRB]

Wow, can't believe Andrus is still only 23. He might come at a discount (relative to overall value) since he's not a HR/RBI guy. If Melvin could trade for him and then lock him up through his 20s, what an amazing move that would be.

 

This is all theoretical of course, since I'm still convinced @BrewersNation just makes stuff up given his track record and the bizarre (fake-sounding) way he dispenses information.

[TooLiveBrew]

So what would the going rate for an Andrus extension be? He has no power but gets on base at a nice clip and has some speed. I don't know that it would be some absurd number would it?

Well after the 2010 season, Tulowitzki re-signed with COL for appx. 10 years/$158M. That deal included buying out his last two arbitration seasons ('11 & '12). So a quick & dirty AAV for the seasons beyond that, plus the $4M buyout for the deal's final (& only) option season, would be about $16M ($144M, 9 seasons).

 

If I'm free agent Elvis Andrus, and I've stayed healthy & played to my career norms through 2014, I'd be looking for something in the neighborhood of maybe (?) $12-15M AAV. My young age would be a huge factor in my expectations of contract length, and I certainly wouldn't be interested in like a 5 or 6 year deal, because 6 years seems to be the going minimum on the FA market lately for star players. I sincerely believe, with Boras as his agent, the expectations will be like a 10 year deal -- keep in mind all of this assumes Andrus stays healthy & productive.

 

Oh, and if the Yankees are indeed interested suitors for the FA market, you'd better bet me as Elvis Andrus is confident that $150M isn't an impossible number.

 

 

EDIT: Duh, good call on Reyes as a comp, nate82. His AAV is actually higher than Tulo's, at appx. $17.7M per year. So an 8 year contract (to borrow from nate's post) would be just over $140M.

[3and2Fastball]

Sounds like the Orioles are refusing to trade one of their top prospects and are moving on to pursuing lesser players than Greinke

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19660930/orioles-look-into-colon-liriano-headley-and-hitters-who-can-get-on-base

[fondybrewfan]

So many things can happen in two years that is virtually impossible to know what this team will look like in 2015. I am all for trying to win in 2013 and 2014 and Andrus would certainly help out the cause. If Profar isn't realistic why not go for the proven MLB guy that you would control for a minimum of 2 years.

 

We have been saying the window is closing for like the last 2 years now and it still hasn't closed. I have no problems extending the window another two years; I like winning baseball. Just hope and pray that some of the pitching in MILB pans out at the MLB level or atleast can be parlayed into some other MLB talent. I like Melvin's approach here. With Andrus we would have a damn good offense still and we would finally have that guy at the top of the lineup.

 

EDIT: Basically I don't tihnk a full blown rebuild is necessary because the Brewers still have enough pieces to reasonably contend in the next several years. I see no reason to blow up the team and have a couple horrible years; there is enough talent to both reload the farm system and also field a good MLB team.

[TooLiveBrew]

Sounds like the Orioles are refusing to trade one of their top prospects and are moving on to pursuing lesser players than Greinke

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19660930/orioles-look-into-colon-liriano-headley-and-hitters-who-can-get-on-base

Well if I'm an Orioles fan, I'm very glad to hear that. Imo there's no way that they're going to hang around much longer, with or without ZG, playing in that beast of a division. They are set up nicely to be a contender for the next few seasons; no reason to burn at least 6 seasons of Machado for a glimmer of a chance in 2012.

[SRB]

I don't think Andrus is in the same contract-league as Tulo/Reyes. He is much, much worse offensively, so it's a question of how much you value his age, and I doubt it would be that huge.

 

That said, he's still looking at a mega-deal that might go north of $100million, true.

[ListachRides]

We have been saying the window is closing for like the last 2 years now and it still hasn't closed. I have no problems extending the window another two years; I like winning baseball. Just hope and pray that some of the pitching in MILB pans out at the MLB level or atleast can be parlayed into some other MLB talent. I like Melvin's approach here. With Andrus we would have a damn good offense still and we would finally have that guy at the top of the lineup.

 

Agreed. I want to clarify that my earlier post wasn't meant to be negative. A deal like this is probably the best way to make use of our years of control over Gallardo and Braun's prime. It's a bit like going all in on Prince's last year rather than constantly trying to set the team up for that perfect alignment of talent at some indefinite point in the future. I don't want to derail the thread into an evaluation of Melvin's tenure, but I think a deal along these lines would make sense for the Brewers. It's Texas that I think says no.

[derflotr]

If Profar is truly untouchable, shouldn't Andrus be mega-untouchable? Does Profar have significantly more power potential? Andrus is proven, experienced, affordable, and excellent in every other aspect of the game other than SLG%. I get the years of control discrepancy, but I really don't see Texas parting with such a great player right now in favor of a 19-year old who's never seen a big league pitch, no matter how talented he may be.

[TooLiveBrew]

If Profar is truly untouchable, shouldn't Andrus be mega-untouchable? Does Profar have significantly more power potential? Andrus is proven, experienced, affordable, and excellent in every other aspect of the game other than SLG%. I get the years of control discrepancy, but I really don't see Texas parting with such a great player right now in favor of a 19-year old who's never seen a big league pitch, no matter how talented he may be.

Yes he does.

 

Andrus certainly isn't some bum, and he's obviously further along in his development, but what the Rangers believe they have in Profar is probably best quickly described as Hanley Ramirez part II.

[ilikewisco]

Could Greinke, Hart, and maybe someone like Ax or a prospect get Andrus and Feliz? It doesn't seem like Texas is completely sold on Feliz being in the rotation during the stretch. Some of it could be injury concern, but maybe they have given up on him a little bit.

[fondybrewfan]

That would probably work but I don't think I want to part with Ax; he is the only guy in the pen with any potential.

[MJLiverock]

I could see the Rangers dealing Andrus in the offseason but in the midst of a pennant race in favor of a rookie? I have my doubts they would move a proven guy at SS for the rookie for the stretch run. Although maybe they think the addition of Greinke makes up for the risk. I'm not bashing Profor, by all accounts he is going to special like Mike Trout special, but teams tend to want the proven guy for the stretch run/playoffs.

[3and2Fastball]

Profar is only 19 and is in AA. It isn't like he is a guy who is crushing AAA pitchers....maybe you call up a 19 year old from AA in the stretch run but wow that IS a big risk

[monty57]

If we trade for Andrus right now, I will bet that there will be a 40-page thread next year asking what we're going to get when we trade Andrus away. If Hart isn't "the position player" mentioned, then there will be another 40-page thread asking what we'll get for him. I don't want to trade for guys we're only going to have for two or three seasons.

 

Greinke, Hart/Ramirez, Axford for 2-years of a good SS who will not extend with us (Boras) and three arbitration years of a pitcher with seven career starts? No thanks, I'd take six years of Teheran or Olt straight up for Greinke and then trade Hart and/or Ramirez in separate deals and hold onto Axford, who is the only decent bullpen arm we have going into next season. Unless we are somehow able to immediately sign Andrus to a long-term extension, I really hope this rumor does not turn into reality.

 

Unfortunately, as others have stated, this is exactly the type deal Melvin would do... pick up "MLB proven" players even though we'll only have them a short time.

[miggs721]

Before Andrelton Simmons got hurt, he was exceeding expectations after getting called up from AA, but he was a little older. Who's to so Profar isnt ready

[zzzmanwitz]

AA and AAA isn't much of a difference.

[trwi7]

If Profar is truly untouchable, shouldn't Andrus be mega-untouchable? Does Profar have significantly more power potential? Andrus is proven, experienced, affordable, and excellent in every other aspect of the game other than SLG%. I get the years of control discrepancy, but I really don't see Texas parting with such a great player right now in favor of a 19-year old who's never seen a big league pitch, no matter how talented he may be.

Yes he does.

 

Andrus certainly isn't some bum, and he's obviously further along in his development, but what the Rangers believe they have in Profar is probably best quickly described as Hanley Ramirez part II.

 

Hanley Ramirez part II with good defense.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yep -- hey, I said quickly!

[ilikewisco]

Greinke, Hart/Ramirez, Axford for 2-years of a good SS who will not extend with us (Boras) and three arbitration years of a pitcher with seven career starts? No thanks, I'd take six years of Teheran or Olt straight up for Greinke and then trade Hart and/or Ramirez in separate deals and hold onto Axford, who is the only decent bullpen arm we have going into next season. Unless we are somehow able to immediately sign Andrus to a long-term extension, I really hope this rumor does not turn into reality.

 

I think I would take Feliz straight up for Hart or Greinke. Three years of a guy ready to go in the MLB rotation is very valuable. You would rather have Perez or Grimm? Not me.

[SRB]

Greinke, Hart/Ramirez, Axford for 2-years of a good SS who will not extend with us (Boras) and three arbitration years of a pitcher with seven career starts? No thanks, I'd take six years of Teheran or Olt straight up for Greinke and then trade Hart and/or Ramirez in separate deals and hold onto Axford, who is the only decent bullpen arm we have going into next season. Unless we are somehow able to immediately sign Andrus to a long-term extension, I really hope this rumor does not turn into reality.

 

I think I would take Feliz straight up for Hart or Greinke. Three years of a guy ready to go in the MLB rotation is very valuable. You would rather have Perez or Grimm? Not me.

I would much rather have Perez. Feliz walks way too many batters to be a successful SP. His BB/9 and FIP were bad last year even as a RP.

 

I think Perez is the higher upside at this point, plus longer team-control.

[craigharmann]

My gut keeps coming back to the Rangers having the pieces necessary to make the deal happen. They've got excellent pitching and SS prospects, the two places of need. With the Orioles moving on, and I don't see the Angels really getting in on it...and the Sox? I'm not that familiar with their farm, but I haven't seen any reports on them having top flight guys. The Rangers need at least one more pitcher. Whether that's a package of Profar and a pitcher or two straight up for Greinke, or Profar, Feliz and a lower prospect for Greinke and Hart, I think it's going to end up being the Rangers.

[splitterpfj]

I laugh sometimes when I see piles of Tweets that say, "Brewers will deal Greinke." Well...duh. I also enjoy how Rangers fans think they can get Greinke and Gallardo, while Brewers fans think they can get any group of prospects they can string together in a sentence.

 

The Brewers won't risk injury with Greinke, and the team that gets him will want his next start...right now, several teams are making a real attempt to get Greinke, so the Brewers are doing their due diligence, checking possibilities, and giving each GM a chance to up their offer.

 

Just looking at the clock on this thing, I'd bet on a trade announcement tomorrow afternoon. That gives Milwaukee the rest of the day and early tomorrow to make their choice, and it gives Greinke's new team time to get him on a plane and in uniform in plenty of time to pitch for them when his next turn comes up.