The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 4)

[miggs721]

A Package of Cron, Segura, and Richards would be a nice haul...

[slappzilla]

The Brewers won't trade for Alexei Ramirez even if the ChiSox offer him. They're not looking to add money.

 

12:$5M, 13:$7M, 14:$9.5M, 15:$10M, 16:$10M club option ($1M buyout)

 

^ is what Alexi is due. plus what turborickey said...

[StearnsFTW]

unless the Marlins do decide to trade Johnson.

 

He was already traded to Texas for Olt.

 

I thought I read that somewhere.

 

 

Like 23 times.

[fondybrewfan]

I would take Segura & Richards in a heartbeat for Grienke. I have a love fest for Hunter Morris so I am not in a huge hurry to at a 1B prospect. Plus Cron looks like he doesn't walk a lick; hes got nice power but 18 walks in over 400 AB's? Hunter Morris has never walked much but he has got 30 and about another 40 points of OBP over Cron and over 100 points in OPS

[miggs721]

What about Segura, Richards, and class A lefty Nick Maronde....he looks like he has a brgiht future as well

[SRB]

Only way you possibly land Alexei Ramirez is if you trade Gallardo or something. And even then it wouldn't happen in the middle of a playoff push by the White Sox. Definitely not on the table for a Greinke rental.

[miggs721]

No thanks to Alexei Ramirez

[fondybrewfan]

Forgot that James Shields is still out there. Both TEX and ANA are going after him. That is another big name out there DM has to compete with

[slappzilla]

Shields has not been that good this year.

 

4.39ERA 1.44WHIP

 

Take away his Cy young candidate year last year, and his career is nothing compared to Greinke's as well.

[yoshii8]

If we make a trade w/ Texas and they won't include Profar, I hope we target Luis Sardinas as part of the deal. He's a 19 year old SS who was highly touted out of Venezuela and is batting .306/.361/.349 in A ball. He's had some injury issues his first two seasons but is supposed to be a great defender who has a lot of potential.

 

I'm thinking something like Martin Perez, Justin Grimm and Sardinas.

[ListachRides]

If we make a trade w/ Texas and they won't include Profar, I hope we target Luis Sardinas as part of the deal. He's a 19 year old SS who was highly touted out of Venezuela and is batting .306/.361/.349 in A ball. He's had some injury issues his first two seasons but is supposed to be a great defender who has a lot of potential.

 

I'm thinking something like Martin Perez, Justin Grimm and Sardinas.

 

I like that package a lot.

 

Assuming Texas refuses to budge on Olt, I think (hope) we will be choosing between a Rangers offer headlined by Perez, an Angels offer headlined by Segura and a Braves offer headlined by Teheran. At that point, the extra pieces become important and Texas has a lot of talent to choose from.

[GormanHarvey]

If we make a trade w/ Texas and they won't include Profar, I hope we target Luis Sardinas as part of the deal. He's a 19 year old SS who was highly touted out of Venezuela and is batting .306/.361/.349 in A ball. He's had some injury issues his first two seasons but is supposed to be a great defender who has a lot of potential.

 

I'm thinking something like Martin Perez, Justin Grimm and Sardinas.

 

 

Don't know much about Sardinas, but Venezuelan SS's have a long history of being supreme defenders. I like this idea because I'm not very confident we land Profar

[jmeks23]

That Angels tidbit is very interesting. But I still would prefer Texas' prospects because Profar, Olt, and Perez all could be difference makers. Plus they have lesser guys that could be good as well like Grimm who has been mentioned.

 

Nothing against Segura and Richards though.

[3and2Fastball]

Shields is an attempt to lower the price on Greinke. He is not competition in the trade market for Greinke. Shields is also a fall-back move for teams because only one team will land Greinke and a lot of contending teams need pitching

[TheCrew07]

Maybe I was exaggerating

 

1 out of 10 at least though.

I don't think 9 out of 10 prospects considered top 1-2 in the game at any given moment end up failing.

I guess I don't understand what a "top 1-2 in the game" means.

 

I went and looked back. Out of the top 10 prospects for the last 5 years, more than not did pan out, but once you expand it to the top 20 prospects and especially top 50 prospects, more than not did not pan out.

 

Obviously if the Brewers land a top 10 prospect for Greinke, that's awesome, but that may also be a feat.

 

This was all already covered in a previous thread.

 

I say again that generic throw away statements like "prospects fail more often than not" don't add anything to the discussion. Bring a legitimate concern about a specific player or there is no point in posting. Almost all prospects have warts, as do most MLB players, there are very few extremely well rounded players in the game. The 1-2 prospects in the BA midseason 50 are Bundy and Profar, the odds that Profar fails are much less than Bundy. Why? Because despite his immense talent Bundy is farther away and is a pitcher, and there is nothing ergonomic about pitching a baseball so every pitcher is a significant injury risk. If you don't know what the top 1-2 prospects in baseball for a given year means then I'm not sure what to say.

 

However, I doubt you actually went back and looked. Here are the names of top 10 players in order of their appearance who have at least been average for their position in MLB when healthy or haven't played enough to drop a bust label on yet. Obviously we need to be farther out to evaluate a player's full career before making a definitive judgement.

 

2008: Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz, Colby Rasmus, Clayton Kershaw, and David Price. I'd even include Homer Bailey who seems to have finally figured it out. I'll use the preseason top 100s because it can get muddle when using the mid season rankings as well. There will be repeat names...

 

2009: Matt Wieters, David Price, Colby Rasmus, Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward, Travis Snider, Madison Bumgarner, and my boy Neftali Feliz.

 

2010: Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Giancario (Mike) Stanton, Jesus Montero (first full MLB season this year), Desmond Jennings (1st full season), Pedro Alvarez, Neftali Feliz, and Carlos Santana.

 

Many of the names here and going forward are going to be very familiar especially those discussed at length in this thread or in the media like Harper and Trout.

 

2011: Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Jesus Montero, Domonic Brown (1st full season), Julio Teheran(AAA), Jeremy Hellickson, Aroldis Chapman, Eric Hosmer (good first season, struggling this year), Mike Moustakas (1st full season), Wil Myers (AAA)

 

2012: Bryce Harper, Matt Moore (1st full season), Mike Trout, Yu Darvish, Julio Teheran, Jesus Montero, Jurickson Profar, Shelby Miller(horrible AAA season will not be in the top 10 for 2013),Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy(moved to #1 on the mid season 50)

 

All in all every year more than half are productive MLB players, are they all all-stars today? No. Will all of them be in future? No. And certainly the recent top 10s have been extremely strong compared to some, the quality of players in each top 100 is going to be fluid and it's not really all that fair to compare the #35 player in one year to the #35 in the next year. One guy might be rising, the other falling, etc... there are just too many variables.

 

Personally I'm looking to acquire legitimate impact potential talent back. The prospect may never put it all together and end up being just an average MLB player but that's okay. That's one less position we have to worry about drafting and developing for the next 6 years. The only thing that really matters in regards to prospect failure rates in our current context is how much more likely they are to succeed than your average 1st round draft pick. How many players have been picked every year before the 2nd round and how many of those players have made MLB much less the BA top 10 for any given year?

 

Instead of just focusing on prospect risk, I feel it's necessary to focus on the risk of the entire picture; from expensive free agents all the way through the amateur draft. There's significant risk at every level and as I've said many times my goal is establish the Brewers as perennial contenders so my focus is to stockpile as much young talent as possible. The more talent you have, the more risk you mitigate, the more options you have, and the more likely you are to be able to have a sustained run of success.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think people here greatly undervalue Zack by thinking we have to do 3 players just for Profar. He hasnt proven a thing. The world is littered with AAAA players. Guys who dominate AAA but cant cut it in majors

That's dismissive of Profar to the point of it being a fault.

 

The world isn't "littered" with 19 year olds who are able to do what he's done at AA, and find me a single scouting report on him that doesn't gush about him. You know who was 19 once & awesome at baseball? Every great player who's ever played.

 

I understand it's easier to just dismiss "prospects", but the reality is that they're all just baseball players. And Profar is a damn good one.

[slappzilla]

TheCrew07 - What is your point?

 

You quoted me where I said that the top 10 panned out over the years.

 

Do you think the Brewers will get a top 10 prospect for Greinke? I don't.

 

Top 30 hopefully, top 50 at the least.

[3and2Fastball]

Greinke straight up for Profar is unlikely. But in the midst of a legit bidding war with Texas' divisional rivals? Greinke plus a couple pieces (Hart and K-Rod as a throw in maybe/) could maybe, conceivably land us Profar.... one can hope at least

[yoshii8]

I would be really pumped if we got Profar or Machado, they both looked like potential superstar players in the futures game, and have put up some pretty nice numbers so far in the minors.

[I Heart Brewers]

Anyone else feel like throwing KRod in any trade involving Greinke would be an insult to another team's GM?

 

I'm just hoping for the best prospect package; regardless of position.

[dlk9s]

No, you say "Just a second, Atlanta's on the other line." Then you let him hold for a couple of minutes and come back and say "I'll have to get back to you on that... are you sure Profar's off the table?" If they say yes, then you tell them you'll get back to them and hang up. You then let every other interested team know what Texas is offering and tell them they have to beat that if they want Greinke.

http://i.imgur.com/JBppl.gif

[dlk9s]

Anyone else feel like throwing KRod in any trade involving Greinke would be an insult to another team's GM?

 

I'm just hoping for the best prospect package; regardless of position.

 

"I'm going to give you a guy who can win playoff games for you and throw in a guy who will lose them."

[RWeeksFan23]

I have a bad feeling if we trade with the Angels, Ervin Santana will be one of the pieces involved.

[miggs721]

no, no, no...to Ervin Santana

[jjfanec]

Has there been any talk of Ervin Santana or is just because some people here think Melvin is an idiot?