The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 4)

[umpref]

I think people here greatly undervalue Zack by thinking we have to do 3 players just for Profar. He hasnt proven a thing. The world is littered with AAAA players. Guys who dominate AAA but cant cut it in majors

[slappzilla]

^ exactly

 

1 out of 100 prospects pan out.

 

For every Mike Trout, there's 99 Matt LaPorta's

[adambr2]

^ exactly

 

1 out of 100 prospects pan out.

 

For every Mike Trout, there's 99 Matt LaPorta's

 

I don't agree with this.

 

Prospects like Mike Trout are rare, but plenty of prospects go on to have successful MLB careers at least. "99 out of 100" is hyperbole.

[slappzilla]

Maybe I was exaggerating

 

1 out of 10 at least though.

[fondybrewfan]

I like that the asking price right now is players like Machado and Profar. While Melvin will likely have to come down from that; he likely will only have to "settle" for players like Olt, Perez, Segura, Etc. I am getting a better feeling that the return is going to be pretty darn good. Especially since LAA and TEX are bidding against each other.

 

Machado or Profar still aren't happening probably but I don't think Melvin is going to drop his demands too much.

[SRB]

Maybe I was exaggerating

 

1 out of 10 at least though.

I don't think 9 out of 10 prospects considered top 1-2 in the game at any given moment end up failing.

[yoshii8]

Jean Segura the SS from Anaheim sounds like a pretty good prospect. I wouldn't mind getting him as the centerpiece along w/ a couple of other prospects like CJ Cron.

[monty57]

Heyman said the Braves will definitely be targeting Greinke, which makes sense. So don't be shocked if the deal centered around Delgado ends up being reality. I'm still holding out hope that we can do better, but if it came down to the deadline and it was either take Delgado or hold onto Greinke for the pick, I'd definitely take Delgado.

 

This Blog says the Brewers would be focused more on Julio Teheran instead of Delgado, and the Brewers would want Teheran plus another prospect. Pure speculation? Teheran has really struggled in both AAA and MLB this season

 

http://mlb.mlblogs.com/

 

The way I see it:

 

Dempster = Delgado (the Braves already set that bar)

Greinke > Dempster

Therefore, the return on Greinke has to be greater than Delgado

 

Melvin should have an easy sell to the Braves that a deal has to be centered on Teheran. To start the season, Baseball America's prospects list: 1) Harper, 2) Moore, 3) Trout, 4) Darvish, 5) Teheran, 6) Montero, 7) Profar, 8) Miller, 9) Bauer, 10) Bundy, 11) Machado, 12) Cole

 

Melvin apparently has already contacted Baltimore about Machado and been turned down. I'd have to imagine that calls are being made regarding Profar (Tex), Miller (StL) and Cole/Taillon (Pitt)

 

If Melvin can get Atlanta to ante up Teheran, that's a lot of leverage when dealing with other teams who want to add an ace. The sudden drop off in supply (Dempster only wanting to go to the Dodgers and Hamels signing) has really upped the potential return for Greinke. If he can't get Texas to give up Profar, I think Teheran is a nice "consolation prize."

[molitor fan]

If Texas is the team we deal with, expect the pitcher from UGA, Grimm, to be a part of the deal as we have been scouting him heavily according to Haudricourt.

[3and2Fastball]

Melvin, at least my best guess, is aiming high for an elite SS prospect, either Profar or Segura (or Machado). I would hope that the reports that 3B Mike Olt "isn't a good fit for the Brewers because they already have Aramis Ramirez" is just plain very poor journalism ---- but then again this is the franchise who decided they had to trade Brett Lawrie because they already had Rickie Weeks!

 

You can trade Ramirez, or you can move Hart back to RF and put Olt at 1B, or you can put Olt at 3B with Ramirez at 1B and Hart in RF. There, my 9 year old son figured that one out in about 3 minutes

 

If Olt is the best prospect you can get, you take him. He's in AA right now anyways, will he even be MLB ready in 2013? Hart will very likely be gone in 2014

 

I think Melvin is working very hard trying to get Profar and has an offer of Olt and Martin Perez already in place, he's seeing if he can "up the ante by playing the Angels & Rangers against each other....

 

I could see the White Sox offering Alexei Ramirez & an MLB ready pitcher or 2, maybe Addison Reed, and Melvin being tempted by that. Melvin seems to have a weakness for already proven MLB players who don't have top prospect ceilings.... the thing is, Alexei Ramirez and Addison Reed plus a pitcher would make the Brewers better....

[Yeti73]

When we traded LaPorta, he was rated as the #23 by BA, right behind CarGo (29 spots ahead of Carlos Gomez and 21 ahead of Votto)...Plus we threw in a decent PTBNL. Whoever gets Grienke is getting 4-7 fewer starts and he's a bigger risk than CC, but I still think he should net a top 40 player.

[monty57]

Since Dempster left the Braves at the alter, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Atlanta offer up Teheran for Greinke because Greinke's better than Dempster, so the return has to be better than Delgado. Apparently, Melvin fees the same way, as is sounds like he's asking Atlanta for Teheran.

 

I know some here have already elected Profar into the Hall of Fame, but basically Teheran=Profar=Machado as far as trade value. If Atlanta antes up Teheran, it would be really hard for Texas to argue that the Brewers would be better off taking anything less than Profar. Therefore, if Texas won't part with Profar, we tell Texas "good luck in the playoffs with your current staff," and take Teheran.

 

I just hope Melvin's able to convince the Braves to offer up Teheran.

[paul253]

I think Melvin is working very hard trying to get Profar and has an offer of Olt and Martin Perez already in place, he's seeing if he can "up the ante by playing the Angels & Rangers against each other....

 

If there is an offer of Olt and Perez in place you take it before Texas comes to their senses.

[NievesNoNO]

I think Melvin is working very hard trying to get Profar and has an offer of Olt and Martin Perez already in place, he's seeing if he can "up the ante by playing the Angels & Rangers against each other....

 

If there is an offer of Olt and Perez in place you take it before Texas comes to their senses.

 

Yeah, I think that sounds like more of an offer the Brewers would put on the table as a standing offer and say Olt and Perez and you can have him right now, no more bidding. Probably the same with Teheran, Machado, or Profar.

[monty57]

I think Melvin is working very hard trying to get Profar and has an offer of Olt and Martin Perez already in place, he's seeing if he can "up the ante by playing the Angels & Rangers against each other....

 

If there is an offer of Olt and Perez in place you take it before Texas comes to their senses.

 

 

No, you say "Just a second, Atlanta's on the other line." Then you let him hold for a couple of minutes and come back and say "I'll have to get back to you on that... are you sure Profar's off the table?" If they say yes, then you tell them you'll get back to them and hang up. You then let every other interested team know what Texas is offering and tell them they have to beat that if they want Greinke.

 

Melvin's got the biggest fish in the pond, and a lot of people who would like to land it. That's called leverage, and in negotiations leverage is really valueable. Now, Texas' "non-Profar offer" may end up being the best offer he can find, but Melvin's still got to play the game. From the sounds of it, he is playing the game pretty well right now, so hopefully we're able to get a little more than we expected.

[fondybrewfan]

Garza and Dempster are still two pretty big fish available. Isn't Garza even signed through next year? He may not be as good as Grienke but he would arguably be more valuable

[StearnsFTW]

I think it's funny that anyone takes anything Haudricourt says seriously, considering he thinks the Nationals "aren't likely to part with Brad Peacock" in a deal for Greinke.

 

Umm, Tom, Peacock has been an A since December.

 

I'll wait until a knowledgeable reporter weighs in on what the return might be.

 

It's frightening how bad the Journal/Sentinel is on all non-Packer sports topics.

[fondybrewfan]

Come on the WMJ isn't that bad for Brewers coverage. I have liked the addition of Todd Rosiak to the coverage. TH isn't the best in the business and probably has no business being an authority on MILB; but he is a pretty decent MLB reporter

[StearnsFTW]

Disagree 100%, but I won't derail the thread.

[monty57]

Garza and Dempster are still two pretty big fish available. Isn't Garza even signed through next year? He may not be as good as Grienke but he would arguably be more valuable

 

Dempster has no-trade protection, and it seems he's pretty much said he's only going to pitch for the Cubs or Dodgers.

 

Garza is probably the only real "competition" on the market unless the Marlins do decide to trade Johnson. I expect Greinke will be gone before the Marlins make that decision, and I don't know that any of the suitors want to be left empty-handed.

 

As to Garza's value, I see it both ways. The extra year cetainly adds value, but if you want to win the World Series this year, Grienke brings more value. I'd have to say that Garza's the "consolation prize" right now for whoever isn't able to land Greinke. Plus, I could see the Dodgers getting Garza, which would mean that Dempster would remain a Cub all season, taking even more supply off the market without effecting demand, as the Dodgers aren't serious suitors for Greinke.

[slappzilla]

I just hope there's not much too Teheran's bad year in AAA so far. His ERA is almost 6.

[slappzilla]

Maybe I was exaggerating

 

1 out of 10 at least though.

I don't think 9 out of 10 prospects considered top 1-2 in the game at any given moment end up failing.

I guess I don't understand what a "top 1-2 in the game" means.

 

I went and looked back. Out of the top 10 prospects for the last 5 years, more than not did pan out, but once you expand it to the top 20 prospects and especially top 50 prospects, more than not did not pan out.

 

Obviously if the Brewers land a top 10 prospect for Greinke, that's awesome, but that may also be a feat.

[3and2Fastball]

via Twitter: Mike DiGiovanna ‏@MikeDiGiovanna

So #Angels skip Santana Fri, move Haren, Wilson up, leaving rotation opening for Sun ... the day Greinke is scheduled to pitch. Interesting.

[zzzmanwitz]

unless the Marlins do decide to trade Johnson.

 

He was already traded to Texas for Olt.

[TURBO]

the thing is, Alexei Ramirez and Addison Reed plus a pitcher would make the Brewers better....

 

But would aquiring Greinke and losing their starting SS and closer make them better?

 

I don't think we can expect to take their starting SS and closer in the middle of a play-off push.