The Combined 'We're Trading Greinke' Thread (part 4)

[topper09er]

Angels interested in Shields

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/angels-like-shields-braves-have-some-interest.html

 

If they get him within the next few hours it may be the leverage we need to get Profar from Texas or at least Olt+++

[TURBO]

"I wouldn't be suprised if Grienke comes back"

 

 

I cannot, I don't even, I...

 

GREINKE WILL NOT BE BACK IN MILWAUKEE GUYZ

 

Seriously, I don't know if you guys are being sarcastic or not. I'm hoping you are.

 

There is as much chance of Greinke resigning with the Brewers as there is Lebron James asking to be traded to the Bucks.

 

 

You must have some great insiders on your payroll to be posting so many things as fact...

[ninja33]

Why don't the brewers look anything like contenders in the near future?

 

Because there's 2 other teams in the division that look better, and 6 other teams in the NL that look better.

 

How are they not?

 

If they bullpen performs at league average, the Brewers are atop of the division right now.

 

Sounds like they're not that far away. your words, not mine.

[slappzilla]

I mean, you're the guy who said the bullpen "single handedly cost the team the season", which implied with a league average bullpen the brewers would be winning the division (i believe those are your words in there).

Those are my exact words.

 

This years rotation: Greinke/Gallardo/Marcum/Wolf/Narv

 

Narv and Marcum hurt, sub in Estrada and Fiers and rotation still is good shape.

 

Next year, no Greinke, no Marcum (arguably) = not looking good to contend.

 

Bring back Marcum, still not looking good.

[SRB]

It's been pretty widely noted that the union puts pressure on the top free agents every year to take the biggest deal.

 

Puts pressure on free agents how? I know it is widely stated, but that doesn't mean it's based in fact (as opposed to people suggesting, 'don't blame the heroic player for being greedy, it's the evil union' -- same logic that leads to such vitriol for Scott Boras).

 

Maybe they would talk to the player if it was something outrageous, like signing for the league minimum or something, but I really don't think the union is sitting on the players' shoulder and telling him to take $10 million more to play for the team he hates rather than the team he actually wants to go to.

 

(Also, fairly sure MLBPA members just pay set dues; the union doesn't get a percentage of their contract)

 

This is getting slightly off the topic of Greinke though

[ninja33]

I mean, you're the guy who said the bullpen "single handedly cost the team the season", which implied with a league average bullpen the brewers would be winning the division (i believe those are your words in there).

Those are my exact words.

 

This years rotation: Greinke/Gallardo/Marcum/Wolf/Narv

 

Narv and Marcum hurt, sub in Estrada and Fiers and rotation still is good shape.

 

Next year, no Greinke, no Marcum (arguably) = not looking good to contend.

 

Bring back Marcum, still not looking good.

 

Yes, but the ENTIRE POINT OF THIS ARGUMENT is about Greinke coming back next year, and the situation the team would be in if he did. So you can't say "no Greinke".

[ninja33]

If he were back next years rotation would probably be

 

Greinke

Gallardo

Richards/Perez/Feliz/someone Greinke got traded for

Fiers

Estrada/Thornburg/Peralta

 

That's not that different, and there's also a chance Marcum comes back on a one year deal/accepts the qualifying offer and slots in ahead of the guy Greinke gets traded for.

[Brewers ST920]

Can you tell me why Zack would be interested in playing for the Brewers vs. a contending big money team? I'd really love to hear it...

 

As Fondy pointed out, how do you know the Brewers won't be in contention next year? With a stable bullpen and less injuries this team would be far better off than where they currently are. The Cardinals are getting older, the Reds likely won't make any drastic moves. The NL Central will likely be week again next year, bearing any major signings or trades. The Brewers could absolutely be in contention next year if everything connects.

[RockCoCougars]

As I said, no way Greinke comes back after he's traded. If word on the street is true (and Greinke confirmed as much), the Brewers made a pretty fair offer- likely north of 9 figures. So he walked from that offer, and opened himself up to be a rental arm.... rental arms are often abused a bit, especially in the playoffs. The guy is taking a huge risk, and I don't think that he's doing so as part of a plan to 'help the Brewers get some young talent'. As we stand right now, the guy will probably be the most coveted free agent of the off-season. It follows that he's going to reap a huge payday.... unless he hurts himself down the stretch.

[monty57]

Can you tell me why Zack would be interested in playing for the Brewers vs. a contending big money team? I'd really love to hear it...

 

Can you tell me why Braun signed basically a lifetime deal to play in Milwaukee when he probably could have played out the first deal and then signed a much bigger deal to play wherever he wanted, including at home in L.A. or Miami? Everyone has their own reasons for doing things, and apparently (even according to his friend Lucroy), Greinke likes it here.

 

The Brewers have put an offer on the table, which doesn't sound like the standard "we know he won't sign it, but we have to show the fans we tried" offer. They made a good faith effort to get him to extend. That offer will probably still be there at the start of this offseason, and may even be upped if we can pick up some good players who will play for $450k and rid ourselves of $40MM of obligations to Hart & Ramirez.

 

It is possible - and most likely probable - that at least one other team will beat our offer. If that happens, it is likely Greinke would not give a "hometown discount" to come back to the Brewers. But, if the Brewers' offer ends up being the best deal (let's say the Dodgers get Garza, who is signed for next season, the Yankees and Red Sox continue to try to divest payroll to avoid luxury tax, the Rangers blow their cash on Hamilton, etc). That could lead to Greinke coming back. I'd even guess that if they were within a few million of the next best offer, Attanasio would dig into his own pockets to make the deal happen. Maybe not probable, but not the craziest notion ever brought up on this board.

[slappzilla]

How bout this...

 

Who can name the last big time FA that didn't sign for max $$$?

 

Greinke would not only have to sign for less than max $$$ he could get, but also pass up WS contending teams while doing so.

 

^ if that seems like a legit possibility to anyone, I don't even know what to say.

[SRB]

It's hard to predict who will be competitive in any given year, aside from the outliers (Astros will not be, Yankees generall will be). But the Brewers have a perennial MVP candidate in Braun and an aggressive owner. Pretty sure Greinke would have no problem re-signing with Milwaukee outside of the money issue.

[TURBO]

How can anyone say the Reds won't make any drastic moves in the off season?

 

I agree with RockCoCougars above. Once he walks away from the Brewers, and the offers start rolling in adding millions upon millions to what the Brewers can offer, I think he will be long gone.

[ninja33]

As I said, no way Greinke comes back after he's traded. If word on the street is true (and Greinke confirmed as much), the Brewers made a pretty fair offer- likely north of 9 figures. So he walked from that offer, and opened himself up to be a rental arm.... rental arms are often abused a bit, especially in the playoffs. The guy is taking a huge risk, and I don't think that he's doing so as part of a plan to 'help the Brewers get some young talent'. As we stand right now, the guy will probably be the most coveted free agent of the off-season. It follows that he's going to reap a huge payday.... unless he hurts himself down the stretch.

 

I don't think it's part of some grand plan to get the Brewers talent. I think it's about Greinke being a guy who wants to be comfortable/win, and the best way to find his ideal situation is to be available to every team in free agency. It's more than likely that his ideal situation will end up coming with about $20M more than the situation in Milwaukee and that's where he'll end up. But he's not going to cross Milwaukee off of the list after he gets traded. If his best offers are in the same general ballpark (again, I agree that's not very likely), I think what many are saying is then there's a pretty good chance he comes back.

[fondybrewfan]

This argument seems to be going around in a circle here........

 

And there is no way of knowing FA's that have passed over larger deals to sign elsewhere because not all offers are made public.

[slappzilla]

Can you tell me why Zack would be interested in playing for the Brewers vs. a contending big money team? I'd really love to hear it...

 

Can you tell me why Braun signed basically a lifetime deal to play in Milwaukee when he probably could have played out the first deal and then signed a much bigger deal to play wherever he wanted, including at home in L.A. or Miami? Everyone has their own reasons for doing things, and apparently (even according to his friend Lucroy), Greinke likes it here.

"Greinke likes it here" oh please

 

If Greinke likes it here so much why didn't he sign that $115M offer?

 

Comparing Braun and Greinke is a joke. Braun has been a Brewer since day 1 in his MLB career and he choose he wanted to finish a Brewer, and by doing so, took probably way less money than he could have made going elsewhere had he waited till FA like Prince. He also could have gone to a repeat contender but choose not too. Who knows his reasons. Fact is, he screwed himself out of $$$ and more chances to contend for a title by making the decision he did.

 

Greinke has been a brewer for 1.5 years. He wanted off the Royals cause he wanted to win. He still wants to win. When lining up contenders, and who will contend for the forseeable future, the Brewers are hardly on the map.

[ninja33]

How bout this...

 

Who can name the last big time FA that didn't sign for max $$$?

 

Greinke would not only have to sign for less than max $$$ he could get, but also pass up WS contending teams while doing so.

 

^ if that seems like a legit possibility to anyone, I don't even know what to say.

 

Cliff Lee.

 

According to Jerry Crasnick, Lee's deal with the Phillies is worth a guaranteed $120 million over five years, with a vesting sixth-year option.

 

Also according to Crasnick, the Yankees' best offer was $132 million over six years, with a $16 million vesting seventh-year option.

 

And finally, from Jon Morosi, the Rangers' best offer was $138 million over six years, with a $23 million vesting seventh-year option.

 

He got about the same yearly salary, but he left "max $$" on the table by going a year shorter. Which would be pretty similar to the difference in what the Brewers reportedly offered Greinke and what Hamels got (and I don't think Hamels sets a new bar for Greinke in the offseason, that's just another example of Ruben Amaro being dumb and throwing money around). It's likely the Brewers offer is in the 5 yr/$110M range, and in FA Greinke gets a 6 year deal in the $130-135M range. Same idea as Lee.

[ninja33]

But really, for the most part no one disagrees with the fact that Greinke will take a lot of money elsewhere. There's a very very strong chance of that, and we all agree. I know I don't expect him to take some kind of hometown discount. What people do disagree with is you saying they're not a contender in the future, completely contradicting yourself from about a week ago when you said they were an average bullpen away from leading the division.

[SRB]

Didn't Pujols take substantially less money to sign with LAA instead of Miami, or was that just a rumor?

 

Either way, I don't think you can predict what Greinke is going to do based on what other players have done. If anybody would buck the trend it would be him.

[ListachRides]

I hope the Greinke deal gets done today. Twitter and MLB Trade Rumors have been major hindrances to my productivity these past three days.

[monty57]

How bout this...

 

Who can name the last big time FA that didn't sign for max $$$?

 

Greinke would not only have to sign for less than max $$$ he could get, but also pass up WS contending teams while doing so.

 

^ if that seems like a legit possibility to anyone, I don't even know what to say.

 

Who is going to make the max offer?

 

I can say that there is a good likelihood that someone will beat the Brewers' offer, but I can't state that as fact. We know the Brewers are willing to post a legitimate offer to sign Greinke. Until we see what the free agent market looks like (what the bids are), we won't know if the Brewers can be in on the auction.

 

I don't necessarily want the Brewers to go all in for Greinke, but the offer they just gave was calculated using the current projected roster and contract liabilities owed. If they are able to get some young players who will be on the books for league minimum for a number of seasons, and they are able to rid themselves of other contract liabilities (like the $40MM owed Hart & Ramirez), then the offer for Greinke could probably be raised quite a bit.

 

An example would be if they could get Olt (playing for $450k) and trade Ramirez ($30MM over two years) for a SP (playing for $450k) who would replace Wolf ($10MM), that would free up around $19MM for each of the next two seasons. If they trade Hart ($10.333MM) for say a SS playing for $450k, you've saved nearly $10MM plus Melvin probably assumed he'd need to spend $4-5MM on a SS next year and now he doesn't have to. That's around $14MM of assumed liability for next season gone. Plus, the young guys they'd get from the Greinke, Hart and Ramirez trades would bring back players who would be relatively cheap for the duration of Greinke's contract, and some could be signed to Lucroy-type extensions, helping assure that we wouldn't end up hitting a financial wall later in Greinke's tenure.

 

Again, probably not going to happen, I don't know for sure if I'd like it to happen, but not a completely crazy idea.

[3and2Fastball]

Not that he was a direct competition for Greinke, but it looks like Matt Garza will be on the DL until after the trade deadline. One less pitcher available

[Team Hoyt]

You guys are nuts if you think Greinke will resign with the Brewers.

 

Just like a lot of you thought we were still in the race for the division a month ago.

[yoshii8]

I don't think anyone thinks its probable, but I definitely think its possible that he could re-sign w/ the Brewers. A lot more possible than either Prince or Sabathia was.

[slappzilla]

But really, for the most part no one disagrees with the fact that Greinke will take a lot of money elsewhere.

That is what most people are arguing with me. I wouldn't keep pushing the obvious facts if they weren't.

 

 

What people do disagree with is you saying they're not a contender in the future, completely contradicting yourself from about a week ago when you said they were an average bullpen away from leading the division.

 

Not a contender in the future = Braun only big star on team long term + weak farm system (as of now) + small/mid-market payroll team.

 

At the begining of this season the Brewers had a rotation of Greinke/Gallardo/Marcum/Wolf/Narv. Even with less of a batting lineup (I.E. no Prince) they still were contenders in a weak division with their strong rotation. The bullpen however single handedly took them out of contention. Next year, the Brewer rotation will not even have a true ace in it. MLB is a pitchers league now. Combine a average rotation with a average batting lineup and I don't see how they contend now or anytime soon.