2008 Vent Thread (part 4)

[SeriesFinale]

Glendon Rusch is probably my least favorite player...totally a stiff when the Crew traded for him, and then he performs relatively well for the Cubs and seems to have particular success against the Brewers.

 

Plus I don't like his face.

 

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Continued from:

 

viewtopic.php?p=395511#p395511

 

Original Lead:

 

viewtopic.php?t=10651

[TooLiveBrew]

Why, in the name of all that is holy, does Ned Yost believe that the superior short reliever should be used in the case of a 3 run lead, while the designated bullpen millstone (even Yost has to think that's what Mota is right now) is the right guy for the 1 run deficit?

 

Unfortunately, it's a simple answer. Ned, like most other MLB managers, is dumb.

[DatHoser]

14 hours later and Mota is still a Brewer.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/mad.gif Why does a team that just acquired a '07 Cy Young winner have a bullpen with him, among others, in it?

[sheethead]

I hear Mota is still brewing, and has hit category 3 status. Should break landfall soon, and according to my calculations will reach the Miller Park area around Saturday. Just in time for me to be staring it right in the face. I better stock up on beer and vodka.

[Jay Zahn]

First, starting the top of the 8^th with a 3 run lead:

 

Runs allowed in 8th..........Chance of winning

0.................................................98%

1.................................................96%

2.................................................89%

 

Now, with a 1 run deficit:

 

Runs allowed in 8th..........Chance of winning

0.................................................30%

1.................................................15%

2.................................................7%

I believe the stats. I'm a little skeptical the one run deficit is going to be usable as a high leverage situation functionally. The stats above are only good for when you're at home; on the road 2 run lead and 1 run deficit are about equally high leverage.

 

The problem is having enough options in your pen to be able to have guys you want to complete the innings and an appropriate backup plan. So the Brewers right now might be looking at Villanueva to take the 6th and 7th when the starter can't go long. If the starter can go six but not seven maybe Riske's the primary 7th guy. Gagne has the 8th right now and Torres the ninth. Shouse does the LOOGY and sometimes might have the seventh and sometimes the 8th.

 

So suppose we have this three run lead. If I'm putting a reliever in other than a LOOGY or ROOGY situation I would try to give him at least two batters - don't want to pull him after just one batter. If I'm bringing in the closer I'd also like to give him a mulligan - in with the tying run on deck, not at the plate. So with a 3 run lead in the ninth I'd just as soon bring in the closer anyway, save stat or no, since if I bring in another guy I'd want to pull him after one hit so what's the point anyway. With a 4 run lead you can use a lesser guy because I can give him a couple of batters. With that 5 run lead against Arizona they could give Mota or whoever 3 runners which is what they did. Then they came in with Shouse, which given the batter was the right move but it didn't work out. Then Torres.

 

Unless you have a guy you're willing to sink or swim with (Torres is our only one, some teams might have a setup that good) you need a backup plan anyway. Gagne can have the eighth, but you need a backup plan like Shouse or maybe even Shouse for an out and Torres for an out or two in the eighth under the right circumstances.

 

It's hard to do all that and save your best guys for the one run deficit situation. One run deficit is kind of sink or swim in itself because if the other team gets anything going it's almost too late before you can do anything. As in last night's game, where the most damaging run was the first homer and not the three that followed. That's maybe what keeps managers from throwing major resources at those situations, because you're still close but things can go south in a hurry. I think medium resources are about the best you can do.

 

Mota is less than a medium resource at this point. Really he needs to be off the team, since at some point you're going to have to throw your #5 or #6 guy in a close deficit situation. Just get a better guy on the team.

[sgtcluels]

So yeah.. Apple released iPhone 3G (off course they announce it after 2 months of me buying it. After Jobs said that there are major reasons why they went with Edge not 3G) today. Well with it they also released iPhone 2.0 Software. Firmware update goes fine. But Apples authentication servers are down, so now I have a 450 dollar brick iPhone and who knows what calls I've missed.

 

Frustrating...

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I believe the stats. I'm a little skeptical the one run deficit is going to be usable as a high leverage situation functionally. The stats above are only good for when you're at home; on the road 2 run lead and 1 run deficit are about equally high leverage.

 

The problem is having enough options in your pen to be able to have guys you want to complete the innings and an appropriate backup plan. So the Brewers right now might be looking at Villanueva to take the 6th and 7th when the starter can't go long. If the starter can go six but not seven maybe Riske's the primary 7th guy. Gagne has the 8th right now and Torres the ninth. Shouse does the LOOGY and sometimes might have the seventh and sometimes the 8th.

........................................................................................

 

It's hard to do all that and save your best guys for the one run deficit situation. One run deficit is kind of sink or swim in itself because if the other team gets anything going it's almost too late before you can do anything. As in last night's game, where the most damaging run was the first homer and not the three that followed. That's maybe what keeps managers from throwing major resources at those situations, because you're still close but things can go south in a hurry. I think medium resources are about the best you can do.

 

 

It's only hard to save the best guys for the one run deficit situation because you've presupposed all of the fully LaRussa-ized modern bullpen roles I so utterly despise. Now, every modern manager seems to use them, which is why I put this in the vent thread rather than the Yost thread, I guess. But you're absolutely right that the first run is the most damaging when you're down 1 run. That's why it's a perfect spot for your relief ace (closer), since he's probably the guy who is most likely to have a clean inning. A 3 run lead, any 3 run lead, whether the 8th or the 9th, is a much much better spot for a "medium resources" guy, because the first 2 runs he gives up don't cause a terribly dramatic change in your odds of winning. That's quite a cushion for a mediocre reliever.

 

Maybe not for Guillermo Mota. We're in agreement there.

[logan82]

Bill Hall. If not for Hall(and Fielder) being sub par defenders, I might have been watching a complete game shutout yesterday. Minor quibble really. I am more upset that the inning I chose to get up and buy food and drink turned out to be their 6 run inning.

 

People who can't stay in their seats until the middle or end of an inning(or at the very least a pitching or batter change). I had at least 3 people get up from their seats and walk in front of me in the middle of a pitch. That doesn't even include the times people got up during an at bat. It's not like I was in the back or even middle of a section. I was in the third row, so there were very few people who could actually get up and block my view. That doesn't even include the kid who walked through our row to get to his seats which were in the next section over, the opposite way(yeah he came back a couple rows up). Either walk your kids to the bathroom or make sure they know where they are going.

[PeaveyFury]

Cameron sure struggles out in CF for a guy that's good defensively.

[razzzorsharp]

It's tough to get those gold gloves up to catch a ball now and then.

[pebadger]

Rusch. Fogg.

[trwi7]

Way to go Cameron. I'm going to take a shot in the dark and guess Cameron's option won't be picked up for next year.

 

Edit: I should add for how much Bill and Brian say Jason Kendall is "fundamentally sound" he sure is a stupid hitter. Cameron draws a walk in the 9th against Cordero so what does Kendall do? Hit a popup on the first pitch. That's just one of my biggest pet peeves.

[crewcrazy]

It'd be nice to have a first baseman who's taller than Barry Sanders...someone who could stretch out and dig a ball out of the dirt every once and awhile. It'd also be nice to have a third baseman who could avoid shorthopping throws to said first baseman when he had time to plant his feet and throw.

[GoudaBrew]

I know. We should've just signed Kenny Lofton and played him in right (with Hart in center). Kapler could've gotten hit lefties out there for him.

 

edit: Milton Bradley would've been pretty sweet too although the risk there is pretty high.

[ELCABALLO45]

I can't stand Weeks anymore. He is the Corey Patterson/Felix Pie of Milwaukee.

 

I also think Fielder should get moved down to 5th in the batting order and move Hart to the 3 hole or Hart to the clean up spot.

[moofnelson]

Is there an MLB umpire that has a good, consistent strike zone? I think baseball would be better served if they went back to NL umps and AL umps.

[moofnelson]

I can't stand Weeks anymore. He is the Corey Patterson/Felix Pie of Milwaukee.

I'm tired of Weeks, too. He just isn't very good. He rarely makes solid contact at the plate. In the field, if it isn't hit right at him, I cross my fingers. So much potential, though. Some day he might figure baseball out. Probably not in a Brewer uniform, though.

[ELCABALLO45]

I can't stand Weeks anymore. He is the Corey Patterson/Felix Pie of Milwaukee.

I'm tired of Weeks, too. He just isn't very good. He rarely makes solid contact at the plate. In the field, if it isn't hit right at him, I cross my fingers. So much potential, though. Some day he might figure baseball out. Probably not in a Brewer uniform, though.

The at bat today when he swung away on 3-0 he swung at a 88 mph fastball right down the middle and missed it.

 

That is all Fog threw at him after it got to 3-0.

[cwolf2012]

Rickie Weeks is the same as Corey Patterson is essentially the same claim that Braun and Dunn are the same player.

[brewmann04]

Well hopefully they will use next year salary of Cameron and Gange on something better.

Weeks is just horrible in the leadoff spot and his lack of hitting is getting old.

I also agree with a previous poster Prince and Hart need to change places cause at least now Hart is clutch.

It also getting old how this team continues to blow games that will cost us a playoff spot.

Good teams know how to put away crappy teams

[wibadgers23]

It just seems like we find every way possible to lose games. Whether it's crappy defense, terrible offense against crappy pitchers, bullpen meltdowns, etc. We just have a knack for giving away games. It's getting old. Playoff contenders do not give away games like the Brewers do.

[ELCABALLO45]

Rickie Weeks is the same as Corey Patterson is essentially the same claim that Braun and Dunn are the same player.

I meant as in....

 

1. Both were overhyped

2. Both are leadoff hitters with some pop

3. Both are fast

4. Both started their careers in the NL Central

5. Both hit their first ML home run in Milwaukee

6.

Corey Patterson's career BA: .254

Rickie Weeks career BA: .243

 

7.

Corey Patterson's 162 game avg. 17 hr- 60 rbi- 31 sb- 146 hits- 27 doubles - 5 triples

Rickie Weeks 162 game avg. 19 hr- 56 rbi- 29 sb- 144 hits -27 doubles - 5 triples

 

8. Both have younger brothers who hit left handed and are 2nd baseman

 

The only diffrence I can tell are...

 

1. Weeks draws alot more walks and has a better OBP

2. Weeks is right handed and Corey is left handed

3. Patterson plays better defense at his position

4. Weeks strikes out more

[brewmann04]

I agree the brewers do lose alot of game that better teams win. They continue to make bad or mediocre pitchers look very good.

[cwolf2012]

"1. Weeks draws alot more walks and has a better OBP "

 

That right there changes things immensely.

[Schlitz001]

Rickie's got an OBP of .322 this year. I don't care what MLB team you're leading off for, that is not good. You have to think he'll at least improve a little bit on that by the end of the year.

The most frustrating losses are those from defense and/or the bullpen. As frustrating as they are, I still get a certain comfort from losing by one run than by 10.