Ned Yost Yay or Nay thread: Hardball Times rips Yost (part 2)

[logan82]

When my baseball savvy friend who happens to be a Cubs fan tells me he's so glad Yost is the Brewers manager... you know something is wrong.

That sentence is self contradictory. Cubs fan and baseball savy should never be used together. I kid, I have a friend who is a Cubs fan also.http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/smile.gif

[danzig6767]

Yeah I think Yost is back next year. Melvin and Mark A. seem to like stability within the organization.

I sure hope that wouldn't be the reason Ned is brought back or not.Would it have been wise to keep Lopes or Royster around for stability?A new manager if brought in couldn't figure out to insert Weeks/Hardy/Bruan/Prince/Hart into the lineup?

Plus,baseball isn't like football where a new coach often comes with having to hire a new offensive/defensive coordinator,learn new systems on both sides of the ball,and learn all new terminology.Go from a say 3-4 defense to a 4-3 defense or maybe from a more passing coach to a more running type of coach which can take quite awhile for the players to learn.

I trust Melvin in a manager search could find a guy who would be qualified enough to handle the clubhouse area part of managing this team,that would be my only concern though.I can't believe he could end up hiring someone who would be a worse baseball mind and one who would make more head scratching in game choices.That would take some real effort on Doug's part.

 

[dvoiss]

As I have watched this debate unfold all summer I have tried to get myself worked up over it on either side of the issue. I just can't. I've said it before in this thread that the manager does not mean that much in terms of wins and losses. Baseball, unlike football, is a game where the front office(scouting , GM etc..) has a much larger impact on a teams win percentage than in football where the coach is very important. In short I guess I rweally don't care who manages this team as long as Melvin is the GM. I can trust his judgement on who is fit to manage the team.

 

Somebody wrote earlier in this thread that the diffference between Yost and Larussa is 5 or 6 wins a year. How can you possibly statistically quantify something like that? You can't unless you have the two of them manage the same team over the same summer which is of course impossible. Is Larussa better than Yost? Of course he is but by how many games nobody really knows. But if Yost goes were not gonna get Larussa or Cox so it doesn't really matter. If we could land someone like that than I say bye bye Ned. But short of that a firing is not really necessary at this time.

 

The issue which is much more important right now is the status of Jack Z. His loss would have a much larger impact on the long term future of the franchise than who is going to manage in 08. I think Melvin needs to put the Yost thing behind him and try to find a way to keep his scouting director. That should be his main priority right now.

[windiv07]

Well, after another 2-out 7th inning meltdown over the bad call at second by ump Chris Guccione resulting in an extended inning and Brewers loss in Atlanta yesterday, I almost changed my mind when Ned was ejected for arguing the call. After sleeping on it and giving it some thought about how (for instance) Ned handles the pen and selects pinch hitters, the phrase 'too little too late' comes to mind as a common theme.

 

Here is what I mean...As this game unfolded, 1st base ump Jerry Layne made several bad calls all in Atlanta's favor on close plays. Two of those bad calls (when Tivo'd in slow-motion) were actually initiated by Layne before the outcome of the play could have been determined (twice Layne began the motion to call a runner safe before he even reached the bag). It was as if he anticipated the runner being safe and on one of these bang-bang plays the ball was actually in Fielder's glove (ump had a perfect angle on this) before the runner's foot was down on the bag and Layne (poised to call him safe) clearly began the safe motion as the ball was being caught. Granted these 1st base calls (by Layne) happened earlier in the game and the call at second base (by Guccione) was the straw that broke the camel's back, but I ask myself if Ned would've gone out & challenged Layne (at 1st base) on the second of 3 bad calls there, would that have made a difference with Guccione at second base after that or would Guccione have had the nerve to hand Atlanta the game anyway with his only bad call of the game? We'll never know.

 

So the question then becomes, why did Ned not go out sooner?

 

So I ask myself that and the only answer I can come up with is that Ned will go out to keep a player from being ejected (Rickie Weeks was on the verge at the moment Yost came out of the dugout), but not to actually question a call on his own. Ned's post-game 'these-kids-play-their-#$$#$-off-and-this-is-not-fair-to-them interview makes that pretty evident. Knowing this, I begin to ask myself, if a manager is going to stay in the dugout while his team is being repeatedly reamed by bad calls from the ump crew until one of his players cannot take it anymore, is it reasonable to expect wins in close games with a hostile umpire crew. No it is not. Yet we have seen other managers around the league accomplish this. Take for instance Bobby Cox or Tony LaRussa who are regularly ejected for having taken the initiative rather than waiting for their players to. Hmmmm, let's see...what is the Brewers' record against the Braves & the Cards this year? Is 'outmanaged' a word?

 

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[bklynbrewcrew]

Ned is a laughingstock in baseball circles. cubs fans are thankful that he is our manager and there have been numerous articles written by national media types such as Keith Law and Joe Sheehan showing how bad Ned is managing this team. Its only no nothings like Haudricourt that continue to defend yost to no end. He has now had 5 years to show improvement as an in game manager and he is actually getting worse at this point. This team should not be struggling to finish above 500 yet we are with one week left in the season. This team has way too much talent to be dragged down any longer by yost. Brewers fans have suffered long enough. Its time to replace Yost before our window of opportunity to win closes.

[giffted1]

Ned is a laughingstock in baseball circles. cubs fans are thankful that he is our manager and there have been numerous articles written by national media types such as Keith Law and Joe Sheehan showing how bad Ned is managing this team. Its only no nothings like Haudricourt that continue to defend yost to no end. He has now had 5 years to show improvement as an in game manager and he is actually getting worse at this point. This team should not be struggling to finish above 500 yet we are with one week left in the season. This team has way too much talent to be dragged down any longer by yost. Brewers fans have suffered long enough. Its time to replace Yost before our window of opportunity to win closes.

When did Cubs fans and the national media guys suddenly become competent?

 

[Brewer Fever]

This will surely bring some heat on me, but the thread indicating Yost might be extended prompted me to call the Brewers season ticket office with the following exchange...

Ticket office: Hello Brewers ticket office, how may I direct your call?

Me: Yeah, I'm interested in a 2008 season ticket package, and I'd like to talk to a sales represenstative.

Ticket office/sales rep: That's what I do, I'm Nathan, how can I can help you?

ME: Well, I usually buy tickets on the go but I'm ready to commit to a minimum 20 game pack on the field level for next year. But I have one odd stipulation.

Sales rep Nathan: Allright, go ahead.

Me: I will sign up immediately, and excitedly, the moment I hear Ned Yost has been relieved of the managerial duities. I'll give you all my information and the second that happens you can call me up and I'll cut the check on the spot. (figuratively of course as I'd just give my credit card info)

Sales rep Nathan: Well, I'm sorry to hear it's under those conditions but I'll get all your information.

Nathan took all my info and said he'll send the initail email regardless to get the ball rolling. I told him I was really excited about the talent and have been building to the point of becoming an annual season ticket holder, but I just can't commit to it with Yost at the helm. I made it very clear that he could call me the day Yost was canned and I promised I would buy the package for 2 seats. (20 game, field level, 2 seats, $35 each = $1400)

I know he's not gonna run out of his office and tell his superiors about my ultimatum but I feel good nonetheless. If anything he'll be able to joke about the call with his coworkers. But I tell you what, I feel better having been able to voice my displeasure. And I'm fired up as ever to be able to commit to a Brewers season ticket package. Cause if I'm signing on, it can only mean one thing...Yost is toast.

[Patrick425]

Nathan is my ticket rep. He is very service oriented and I have no doubt he will call you as soon as Yost is fired (if he's fired).

[TooLiveBrew]

I hope you get those tickets! http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/smile.gif

[bklynbrewcrew]

Brewer Fever, I think you did a fantastic thing making that call. I doubt that it will make much of a difference but it is something that you should be proud of. Getting rid of Yost would be the best thing the Brewers could do in making this team a World Series champion in the near future.

[Brian the Automator]

Are you coming back from Colorado, BF?

[Brewer Fever]

He actually just called me back a second ago. When I saw the caller-id I knew right away it was him. I paused for a second in a moment of sheer exhilaration, wondering, could Yost have just been fired?!?!? I dismissed the thought quickly, answered, and sure enough, Nathan was just calling to confirm my address. He said he had a hard time reading his notes and didn't think I lived on Stonecoop Drive. I gave him the proper spelling and that was that.

 

Personally, I think he just wanted to try the number to see if I was for real. That's okay, it's understandable.

[Brewer Fever]

Are you coming back from Colorado, BF?

 

It was actually California, and I've been back in Wisconsin for awhile. A lot has changed, but all for the better. I've got a whole new career as a commodities broker and that will pretty much eliminate any possibilty of relocation since I'm tied into the company's future and it isn't going anywhere.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Heres hoping you get those tickets!!!!!!!

[Brewer Fever]

I hope you get those tickets! http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/smile.gif

 

brklynbrewcrew wrote:

Heres hoping you get those tickets!!!!!!!

Me too, that's $1400 I'll hand over with a smile.

[TooLiveBrew]

So, where're you headin'?

 

Aspen.

 

Mmmm, California! Beautiful!

[logan82]

I wouldn't worry about an extension for Yost unless Melvin gets one. I don't see a manager getting a longer contract than the GM. Wouldn't make sense. If Mark A. brings in a new GM then he would more than likley have to eat the rest of Yost's contract to get the guy the new GM wants. I just don't see Mark A. making that kind of business decision.

[AJAY]

When the umpires in Atlanta were asked about their controversial calls, they defended themsleves and said that Ned Yost needs to look in the mirror. Do you think even the umpires could figure out that Claudio Vargas was struggling and probably should have been taken out sooner? They watch a lot of baseball and obviously know the game well too.

[DougJones43]

Here are some facts:

 

- Ned Yost has a career managerial record of 370-431 (.462 Win%).

- Ned Yost currently owns the major league baseball record for biggest second-half collapse by a team with a winning record during the first half.

- The Brewers were 32-49 on the road this season, continuing a trend that has plagued Yost teams during his entire tenure.

- The Brewers have blown an enormous number of 3+ run leads during the 2007 season.

- A Ned Yost team is in the midst of another very large second-half collapse. The Brewers held a 6.5 game lead in July, yet currently trail the Cubs by 3 games.

- Ned Yost's moves have been criticized by a number of Brewer fans - as well as Cubs fans and general fans of baseball. A lot of his in-game decision making has been thought of as detrimental to the team by many neutral statisticians and well-respected baseball publications (probably the most objective source there is on the subject).

- Ned has been managing for 5 years, and has shown very little willingness to change course, or even acknowledge his decisions or philosophies might be wrong. 5 years is a lot of time to learn a craft.

- Many other young teams (with arguably less talent), such as Arizona and Colorado have been able to put together better seasons than the Brewers.

 

It certainly seems to me that the deck is stacked pretty heavily against common sense telling us we should retain him as manager. However, many people still believe he is the best man for the job. I would like those people to answer a question, and this is a completely serious question: What would it take for you to change your mind, and decide you wanted Ned Yost replaced? Please list criteria that is as specific as possible.

[logan82]

I want a better comaprison to other managers before making a decision.

 

Edit: To be perfectly honest you would have to convince me that a manager has more than a negligible effect on the outcome of games, especially with reagards to in game decisions. You would also have to convince me that Yost has a strategy that is way out of wack with what a typical manager does. You would also have to convince me that his strategy is worse and not just different. For example, playing for one run in certain situations as opposed to always playing for the big inning.

[brettac1]

One thing that is odd to me is that Yost supposedly was getting into statistical analysis a lot during the off-season, yet he seemed to not absorb any of it. I like that he doesn't bunt, that's a positive. But then when he does it's in an incorrect situation like Saturday's game. The last thing I want is a "run manufacturer". Yost needs to be able to just sit on his hands a little more. I'm resigned to the fact that he'll be back, and I really do feel that he's basically the same as the rest of them, but 5 years is a long time without really getting much done.

[DougJones43]

I want a better comaprison to other managers before making a decision.

 

Would you care to elaborate on this a little? It's very vague.

[DougJones43]

To be perfectly honest you would have to convince me that a manager has more than a negligible effect on the outcome of games, especially with reagards to in game decisions. You would also have to convince me that Yost has a strategy that is way out of wack with what a typical manager does. You would also have to convince me that his strategy is worse and not just different. For example, playing for one run in certain situations as opposed to always playing for the big inning.

 

Those are all things that would be quite difficult to prove, although it seems that there is mounting evidence that things like bunting when he does, only using the ace reliever in save situations, etc. is not a smart way to try and win close games.

 

 

 

To be perfectly honest you would have to convince me that a manager has more than a negligible effect on the outcome of games, especially with reagards to in game decisions.

 

So, should managers ever be fired? Why even bother having them? Maybe fans should be given a chance to enter a raffle to manage a game for their team.

[logan82]

Those are all things that would be quite difficult to prove, although it seems that there is mounting evidence that things like bunting when he does, only using the ace reliever in save situations, etc. is not a smart way to try and win close games.

How often do other managers use that strategy though. I am not saying it is right, just if we are going to change to another manager I would hate to have the same problems. I honestly think the best thing as far as using an ace reliver is concerned would be to give the manager a leverage chart and tell him that if it reaches a certain level, insert your best reliever. That is very difficult to do though with what relievers earn with high save totals. The best thing that could have happened to us this year would have been for Capellan to come in and be a stud reliever like Marmol has for Chicago. He is young so we could pass him over as closer and give him the high leverage innings. The big problem is we don't have that shut down guy outside of Cordero and Shouse. Shouse is really only effective against lefties and most teams will not use their closer outside of certain situations. I see this as a MLB manager problem, not exclusive to Yost. That is why I am not convinced replacing Yost would necessarily make us better.

[DougJones43]

How often do other managers use that strategy though. I am not saying it is right, just if we are going to change to another manager I would hate to have the same problems.

Couldn't a GM find a guy who wouldn't do the same stuff? Are you saying that, in all of organized baseball, there isn't anybody who believes in some of the philosophies put forward by SABRmetrics and fundamental logic?

 

 

I honestly think the best thing as far as using an ace reliver is concerned would be to give the manager a leverage chart and tell him that if it reaches a certain level, insert your best reliever.

I'm sorry, but I really find this to be absurd. You can't chart out all of the possible scenarios that can happen in a game, and there are other (season-long) effects to cosider, like how often to use a guy, etc. The whole point is, if your manager would need one of these charts, he sucks. He doesn't have the instincts or intelligence to be managing a major league baseball team. There are probably a lot of people who can routinely make these types of decisions without a chart. Good managers just know.

 

 

That is very difficult to do though with what relievers earn with high save totals.

What's going to happen if the "closers" get used in a tie game in the 8th rather than a bunch of 3-run lead 9th innings? Refuse to pitch? Ask for a trade? Retire?? If so, I wouldn't want them on the team anyway.