Ned Yost Yay or Nay thread: Hardball Times rips Yost (part 3)

[Thurston Fluff]

Villy (you left him out - I know, he was in the rotation in Sept but for much of the year, in over 20IP, he was effective)

Linebrink

Wise (until the last 2 outings he was under 4)

 

For heaven's sake what was their ERA at the end of the year? I don't see how you can count them since neither had an ERA under 4 on September 30th. As I said you can't subtract a couple bad outings to make your point. If you wish to count Wise because he had a couple bad outings then you should at least admit he was unreliable for quite some time. He was not just bad for two outings he was absolutley horrid the last month or so. To the point that he was so untrustworthy he was very limited in his use. Had Yost used him more the last month he would most certainly ahve had a higher ERA and it wouldn't have just been his last two outings that made his ERA jump over 4. When Villy got sent to AAA his ERA was over 4. If I'm not mistaken it went down when he came back up in the starter's role. No matter how you look the stats don't lie on this point. There is no way to say a person who has an ERA above 4 counts as below it. How much clearer can it get than that?

Add to it the point I made was other managers used their guys the same if not more with better results. As you recall people were claiming Ned abused his pitchers and that is why they imploded. I showed quite clearly other pitchers did as much and more without falling apart as the season wore on. That was a myth perpetuated without basis by those who chose to bash Ned for something he clearly should not have been. The fact that Wise and Villy both tailed off to substandard results as the year went on only adds to the point that they were not good enough to do what should be expected of playoff caliber relievers to do. Since Ned should not be expected to win with pitchers who can't do what other teams pitchers are capable you can't blame him for how poorly they were in August and September. That was on the pitchers and the man who felt they were capable enough to do what the playoff teams relievers did.

[don1481]

For heaven's sake what was their ERA at the end of the year? I don't see how you can count them since neither had an ERA under 4 on September 30th. As I said you can't subtract a couple bad outings to make your point. If you wish to count Wise because he had a couple bad outings then you should at least admit he was unreliable for quite some time. He was not just bad for two outings he was absolutley horrid the last month or so. To the point that he was so untrustworthy he was very limited in his use.

 

...

 

As you recall people were claiming Ned abused his pitchers and that is why they imploded. I showed quite clearly other pitchers did as much and more without falling apart as the season wore on. That was a myth perpetuated without basis by those who chose to bash Ned for something he clearly should not have been. The fact that Wise and Villy both tailed off to substandard results as the year went on only adds to the point that they were not good enough to do what should be expected of playoff caliber relievers to do. Since Ned should not be expected to win with pitchers who can't do what other teams pitchers are capable you can't blame him for how poorly they were in August and September. That was on the pitchers and the man who felt they were capable enough to do what the playoff teams relievers did.

Villanueva's was 3.94 at the end of the year. On September 30.

 

My point with Wise was that he WAS being overworked until he drilled that batter in the face. As I said several posts ago, he had almost as many appearances in June ALONE as he did in August/September combined.

 

As I showed, Ned did use his bullpen more frequently than most other teams did. If we want to count Linebrink and his 70+ games total or however you want to weight his partial season with the Brewers, Ned did run his relievers out by several games more, on average per reliever, than other teams.

 

I then hypothesized that Ned's usage of the bullpen early on in the season - effectively closing off the 6-9th innings with 4 relievers in some cases... with a number of times each having to go in game in and game out... was the event that triggered the second-half collapse.

 

If you look at 2/5 of the starting rotation - Vargas and Capuano - in April and May, their inability to go deep PLUS Ned's decisions to sometimes pull them when the Brewers were getting pounded and eat the bullpen rather than letting the starter "absorb" a couple of extra innings to get arms rested contributed to the excessive early-season wear and tear.

 

I remember, when I ran my original estimates partway through the season, I had SEVERAL relievers listed at being on pace for over 80 games. Those arms just simply could not do that. How the Dodgers' arms haven't completely imploded yet is beyond me - I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of those three at 80+ games this year develops arm trouble within the next season to season and a half.

 

And just because other pitchers DID manage to go 80+ games does not mean that the pitchers that the Brewers had this year could as well. Different bodies, different responses to workloads.

 

The fact that Villy specifically tailed off was not because he wasn't "good enough" but rather because Ned overused him at the beginning of the season. He was one of the pitchers that was on track for a ton of appearances during my original estimates, and prior to this season, he was always a starter. He was not used to pitching back-to-back days; it's a different way of going about things that affects pitchers psychologically and physically.

 

Wise WAS quite effective until he hit that batter in the face. That sort of situation could make even the most hardened people suffer after-effects. Going into the July 25 game (when the beaning took place), Wise had a 2.70 ERA.

 

Had Ned been able to hold out a few of those overworked arms in some of those earlier games, could that have been the difference? Maybe.

 

Had Doug been able to acquire another good arm well in advance of the trading deadline, would that have helped? Probably.

 

Both Doug and Ned should be held accountable for the collapse.

[Jay Zahn]

As I showed, Ned did use his bullpen more frequently than most other teams did. If we want to count Linebrink and his 70+ games total or however you want to weight his partial season with the Brewers, Ned did run his relievers out by several games more, on average per reliever, than other teams.

 

I then hypothesized that Ned's usage of the bullpen early on in the season - effectively closing off the 6-9th innings with 4 relievers in some cases... with a number of times each having to go in game in and game out... was the event that triggered the second-half collapse.

 

If you look at 2/5 of the starting rotation - Vargas and Capuano - in April and May, their inability to go deep PLUS Ned's decisions to sometimes pull them when the Brewers were getting pounded and eat the bullpen rather than letting the starter "absorb" a couple of extra innings to get arms rested contributed to the excessive early-season wear and tear.

 

I remember, when I ran my original estimates partway through the season, I had SEVERAL relievers listed at being on pace for over 80 games. Those arms just simply could not do that. How the Dodgers' arms haven't completely imploded yet is beyond me - I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of those three at 80+ games this year develops arm trouble within the next season to season and a half.

 

And just because other pitchers DID manage to go 80+ games does not mean that the pitchers that the Brewers had this year could as well. Different bodies, different responses to workloads.

 

The fact that Villy specifically tailed off was not because he wasn't "good enough" but rather because Ned overused him at the beginning of the season. He was one of the pitchers that was on track for a ton of appearances during my original estimates, and prior to this season, he was always a starter. He was not used to pitching back-to-back days; it's a different way of going about things that affects pitchers psychologically and physically.

 

Wise WAS quite effective until he hit that batter in the face. That sort of situation could make even the most hardened people suffer after-effects. Going into the July 25 game (when the beaning took place), Wise had a 2.70 ERA.

 

Had Ned been able to hold out a few of those overworked arms in some of those earlier games, could that have been the difference? Maybe.

 

Had Doug been able to acquire another good arm well in advance of the trading deadline, would that have helped? Probably.

 

Both Doug and Ned should be held accountable for the collapse.

Here's the relief pitcher stats for every National League team. The Tot GP column is the total number of relief pitcher games during the season:

 

 

	Tot GP	W	L	ER	SV	IP
Washington	588	30	27	3.81	46	590.2
Florida	560	29	28	4.02	40	586.2
Atlanta	528	26	20	3.54	36	539.1
Cincinnati	522	23	31	5.10	34	492.2
Colorado	521	35	26	3.85	39	528.2
St. Louis	516	30	12	4.00	34	546.2
Milwaukee	512	23	32	4.15	49	511.1
NY Mets	499	22	21	3.99	39	511.2
Philadelphia	498	28	23	4.41	42	520.0
San Francisco	496	20	33	4.10	37	485.0
San Diego	485	30	25	3.01	45	549.2
LA Dodgers	483	24	19	3.82	43	533.0
Chicago Cubs	478	21	27	3.76	39	491.0
Houston	476	25	21	4.62	38	507.0
Arizona	470	30	19	3.95	51	483.0
Pittsburgh	470	22	24	4.77	32	514.2

You know, the Brewers sure look in the middle of the pack in both number of games pitched and innings pitched by the relievers. I just don't see a lot of overuse there.

 

As far as projections go, I don't think there was ever a point in the season where several relievers were projected to be used in 80+ games. April was the month where Yost used the bullpen the most - had that trend continued, the relievers project out to 505 games over 162 games (I know the Brewers actually used 512, but that included September which will always be higher because of expanded rosters.) However, that was followed by May which was by far the easiest month at 419, then three months of 467, 462, and 486 (August, where the starting pitching was terrible.) So any overuse in May was balanced by the restrained use in June.

 

Matt Wise after April was always projected for a game workload somewhere in the 60s. As I've said before I do not feel that Turnbow's workload was tremendously out of line with what he's done before. Certainly not to the point that he should lose his control in early August.

 

I think it's asking a lot of any manager when his fragile bullpen can't stand the strain of being used a normal amount, and his high in IP for a starter barely cracks 200.

[don1481]

You know, the Brewers sure look in the middle of the pack in both number of games pitched and innings pitched by the relievers. I just don't see a lot of overuse there.

...

I think it's asking a lot of any manager when his fragile bullpen can't stand the strain of being used a normal amount, and his high in IP for a starter barely cracks 200.

 

 

First of all, I appreciate the compilation of this data; it makes analyzing for potential trends that much easier for all involved.

I agree we're in the middle of the general population, but... when we compare the totals with those of the four playoff-bound teams, it presents a different picture. Of those four, the only one with more total appearances was Colorado. Note that Chicago AND Arizona were both significantly less than Milwaukee.

 

Note also that of those four, only Philly had a higher ERA than Milwaukee's.

 

In Innings Pitched, yes, the Brewers' pen ranked smack dab in the middle of this group.

 

Am I running the risk of "small sample size" here? You betcha. However, if one wants to be part of that sample where n = 4, then it's prudent to look and see where the differences lie between the general population (n = 16) and the desired subset (n = 4).

 

I do completely agree that the numbers indicate that the Brewers' bullpen wasn't as "deep" as others'; however, I disagree that Ned should not be held accountable for the bullpen issues. I've outlined several occasions early in the season where Ned would have been better off just keeping in the starter for an additional inning or two - because either the Brewers were way ahead or way behind - and in the rare situation where the Brewers did manage to rally, it ate up a lot of bullpen and put undue stress on what, yes, could be called a "fragile" pen. "Overuse" is dependent on the player himself - if said players don't have the ability to pitch a few games straight, then it's up to the manager to understand this limitation and minimize its exposure.

 

Understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the resources available and working within the constraints provided therein is a fundamental principle of management, whether in the corporate world or in sports; that's why people are put in those roles. In the corporate world, if a team or group badly fails to meet goals - whether or not those goals are unrealistic is not always relevant - the manager is usually the person that is held accountable first. IMO the same applies here.

 

In terms of bullpen assembly, Melvin failed to acquire enough "effective" arms to prevent situations like Ned having to run Aquino out in a close game. He should be held accountable for that; I have continued to agree with the implied point Jay Zahn and others have made throughout this discussion regarding this point. I think, in order to get into that subset where n = 4, the bullpen must be deeper than in 2007.

 

The players should definitely be also held accountable; they're the ones that are being run out there and it's ultimately up to them to get the job done. Those that ultimately failed to do what was asked of them hopefully will not be anywhere near the Brewers' pen in 2008.

 

Keep in mind that Ned's mismanagement of his bullpen is just a subset of the entire body of work that he's put together over the past few seasons.

[windiv07]

I really appreciate the facts shared in this two-way between Don & Jay. I have learned a couple of things that the stats have revealed. But I'm beginning to have a tough time following this emerging avalanche of analytical detail. I guess I am pining for the days of game-by-game when the images of the forgone proper decisions and missed opportunities are fresh in my mind and the invective evoked by such circumstances is swift and decisive. The Brewers missed the playoffs and I still blame Ned.

[sheethead]

Yost 1/15/08: "I'm still playing with the lineup a little bit, in my mind," he said. "We have some capabilities of putting some offense on the board in a quick hurry."

 

Redundancy aside, Ned's comment made me recall this thread. Does the thought of Ned's mind playing with the lineup make anyone else nervous? Granted there is a long way to go before the season kicks, but I'm still left wishing I had more faith in the team leader. None of Ned's comments inspire me, ever. And more often than not they make me cringe. Man I hope he proves me wrong and/or gets lucky this year, as my expectations are pretty high for 2008.

[bigredrobbo]

Wait a minute, we have at least 3 players occupying positions they didn't play last year for the Brewers. Of course the lineup is still getting finalized!

 

Jeez, people, now we've gotten to the stage of analyzing every last word Yost says in throwaway soundbites at news conferences? C'mon.

 

It's gonna be a long enough season of Yost hunting without picking up on stuff like this...

[Fatter than Joey]

It's gonna be a long enough season of Yost hunting without picking up on stuff like this...

 

you meant to say "It's going to be a long April and May" http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[sheethead]

It's gonna be a long enough season of Yost hunting without picking up on stuff like this...

 

I'm hoping its not a long season, but I still remain uninspired - throwaway comment or not.

[TooLiveBrew]

Uh oh - the beast is back. Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the forum...

 

Does the thought of Ned's mind playing with the lineup make anyone else nervous?

Yes.

[Tbadder]

If I had my druthers I'd give Yost 8 starters, an extra catcher and one righty and one lefty pitch hitter. He couldn't possibly screw things up then, could he?

[Fatter than Joey]

He couldn't possibly screw things up then, could he?

 

As long as he doesn't have any good fielding pitchers on his staff, or math problems to do. He probably shouldn't have access to stats either, for example "Craig Counsell is 2 for 3 lifetime against Randy Johnson, so he is getting the start at 3b today".

 

I still Ned could be a very valuable asset to the team, especially if they employed the "Ask Ned, do the opposite" strategy.

 

Something about couches as well.....

[tigerbrew]

Contrary to Haudricourt's speculation, there is no extension for Yost this offseason. Ned has one year left, he's on a short leash and it's his last chance, it's the playoffs or out he goes. The team has been strengthened and improved from last season, payroll has increased to over $80M. There is no excuse, if Yost fails to achieve the postseason target, he deserves to be fired.

 

 

[don1481]

The team has been strengthened and improved from last season, payroll has increased to over $80M. There is no excuse, if Yost fails to achieve the postseason target, he deserves to be fired.

 

I agree 100%. Nothing short of the postseason should be acceptable when measuring the success of the 2008 Brewers. And if they fail at this goal, Yost needs to go.

[davego]

Agreed. The first time that TGJ starts in place of Corey Hart because a hard throwing RH is starting against us...

[brewcrew00]

Just out of curiousity, what will the mood of some be here if the Brewers do make the playoffs, or better yet, advance? Still the Yost hatred?

[RU Rah Rah]

Just out of curiousity, what will the mood of some be here if the Brewers do make the playoffs, or better yet, advance? Still the Yost hatred?

It depends on how well he manages. Even if the team falters, I would be inclined to lay off him if he manages well. Conversely, if he's a bonehead and the team succeeds basically despite that, then I'm probably going to rail against him.

[TooLiveBrew]

What? Everyone knows Yost critics don't use logic!

[sbrylski]

Just out of curiousity, what will the mood of some be here if the Brewers do make the playoffs, or better yet, advance? Still the Yost hatred?

We will all praise Ted Simmons, of course.

 

[Ennder]

Just out of curiousity, what will the mood of some be here if the Brewers do make the playoffs, or better yet, advance? Still the Yost hatred?

We will all praise Ted Simmons, of course.

 

 

Btw, according to this article....

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7058

 

Ted Simmons is the worst baserunner since 1956!

[fondybrewfan]

So what happens if we win like 90 games and still dont make the playoffs? I would be fine retaining him. If he gets the team to the playoffs or gets the team to a level of wins which normally make the playoffs I would be fine with that. I mean he can only manage the Brewers, Washington and Florida are just going to be dreadful next year, if 2 of New York, Philly, or Atlanta some how win 92 games and we don't get to the playoffs you cant really blame that on Ned. I think if all things go right next year we are a 90 win team, and thats about all Ned can do.

[TooLiveBrew]

For me, it's not some vaguely-defined quantity of wins. It's how he performs as manager - highly subjective, I know.

Boy oh boy... this thread's gonna have a full head of steam and then some by the time Opening Day gets here.

[Fatter than Joey]

Ted Simmons is the worst baserunner since 1956!

 

Cue, RoseBowlMTG rebuttal in 5...4...3...2...1 http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Just out of curiousity, what will the mood of some be here if the Brewers do make the playoffs, or better yet, advance? Still the Yost hatred?

 

If the Brewers make the playoffs and advance, I will probably be under the influence of something, and who knows what I will be hating (or even more scary, what I will be loving). It's a definite "all bets are off" point in time. I am pretty sure I will need to exercise the "in good times and in bad" clause in my marriage.

 

However, I suspect Yost will be fired early in the season.

[RU Rah Rah]

For me, it's not some vaguely-defined quantity of wins. It's how he performs as manager - highly subjective, I know.

 

 

 

 

Boy oh boy... this thread's gonna have a full head of steam and then some by the time Opening Day gets here.

I wonder if we might create a thread devoted strictly to Yost's questionable moves. It would be nice to have a clean, game-by-game summary of his foibles (or, potentially, lack thereof).

 

[strawbossisevil]

RU Rah Rah

 

There is a whole website for that. It was called FireNedYost.com or something like that. A number of the posters on here were members there, and I'm sure they'd love to have another negative critic to join in the Ned hate.

 

I'd rather not have to see such a thread all the time. People second guess managers all the time, and even good moves work less than half the time. I don't know about you but the "I'm smarter than Ned" posts got really really old last season. Do we really need a daily summary of what you or any poster would have done differently? Bleh.

 

There are constructive talks and discussions, and then there are 20/20 hindsight rants (which such a critical thread would most certainly become).

 

As someone mentioned, people are looking to find fault with him. Even the fact that he was thinking about the lineup (the best order of which is still debated on this site) elicited snarky comments. I think it would be best to sit back and enjoy watching the Brewers play this year, and not spend the entire time showing how much smarter (or less smarter) you are than Nedly. Its already been discussed that this is his make or break year. I'm seriously convinced that some just need a reason to complain. Let's put the complaining aside, and enjoy the season for what it is, an entertaining game to watch.