Ned Yost Yay or Nay thread: Hardball Times rips Yost (part 3)

[Time for a Miller]

Very nice post JoeyHep, but I disaggree with you on the pulling of Braun in late innings point. Braun's fielding percentage was 89.5% whereas Counsells was a perfect 100%. Pulling a guy that screws up 1 out of ever 10 balls he fields seems like a smart thing to do when you have the lead. Especially since you can occasionally double switch and push back when you pitcher will bat. Bottom line Braun needs to improve defensively, and you are correct, Yost should not have to worry about taking our best hitter out of the lineup.

[Fatter than Joey]

Anytime you insert Craig Counsell into your team to help you win, you probably already have lost.

[endaround]

Except there was no reason to expect Estrada to perform there. Estrada is the 8th best hitter (who can't hit 8th because he can't get to 2nd on a bunt) hitting 5th right where his ability to GIDP would do the most damage. Add to that Yost would hit Fielder, Estrada, Jenkins and Gross all in a row.

[Fatter than Joey]

First, I do not think fans hate Yost.

 

They definitely do -- I am not saying all of them, but there is a pretty sizable/vocal part of our fanbase that wants him gone, and that piece of the pie has only gotten larger and larger over the last 3 months.

 

If you stalked your order in the most mathematicaly smart way, Prince would be leading of and this would result in about 2 more wins every 5 seasons. If you stalked you lineup in the worst possible way (the pitcher leading off) this would result in 4-5 more losses compared with traditional and optimal lineups.

 

I think you have to do more than 2 scenarios for this to hold any water. Furthermore I don't think you can assume that Prince leading off is the "best mathematical way", because he has the highest OPS. I would run many simulations with multiple lineup scenarios and see which (if any) produced the best results.

 

Yes, I agree that Yost stuck with Estrada to long in the 5 spot.

 

This bugged me a lot this year -- but what I referring to was more "who was in the lineup" not so much where they are batting. When you have to win, I don't want to see Joe Dillon starting in RF for the first time. Or Mench getting a start against RHP, or Player X getting a start because he is 8 for 10 against Pitcher Y spread out over a 6 year period.

[joeyhepatitis]

Very nice post JoeyHep, but I disaggree with you on the pulling of Braun in late innings point. Braun's fielding percentage was 89.5% whereas Counsells was a perfect 100%. Pulling a guy that screws up 1 out of ever 10 balls he fields seems like a smart thing to do when you have the lead. Especially since you can occasionally double switch and push back when you pitcher will bat. Bottom line Braun needs to improve defensively, and you are correct, Yost should not have to worry about taking our best hitter out of the lineup.

I understand this line of thought, I just subscribe to a different baseball philosophy. I'd rather have the bat in the line-up then the glove in the field until the 9th.

 

Most of my complaints about Yost are about his attitude towards the media, how he instantly gets defensive whenever he's asked to explain why he did something, and that his explanations almost always boil down to him depending on a small sample or that he was organizing the bullpen by inning as opposed to the hitters at the plate. I still don't want him fired, though, as there are many worse managers out there and I don't think that he's going to affect the Brewers negatively as the players get better and the bench gets deeper.

Thanks for fixing my post casey

[bklynbrewcrew]

Really there arent many worse managers out there. Its gonna be scary if we start off slow next year and Melvin hands the team over to Sveum.

[don1481]

Really there arent many worse managers out there. Its gonna be scary if we start off slow next year and Melvin hands the team over to Sveum.

 

Do you think Kremblas would be a viable in-season replacement? Or would it pretty much have to be Sveum?

[1992casey]

Without offering any opinion on Kremblas personally, I wouldn't see any problem at all if the AAA manager were promoted to take over a club in-season. As a matter of fact, eons ago, the Brewers did that when Del Crandall was brought up from AAA to take over after a bad start.

 

The issue would be finding candidates from outside the organization.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I would love to see Kremblas get a shot at the job, I just wish this would happen now. Yost has had his chance and failed to improve his decision making. If you dont improve in 5 years you will never improve. Time for fresh blood. As far as replacing Yost in season which will likely happen I fear that Sveum would be given a shot before Kremblas despite no credentials for the job. If Melvin and Mark A had any foresight whatsoever they wouldnt take a chance on ruining another potential postseason run with loser Ned ruining the team.

[Fatter than Joey]

I wouldn't see any problem at all if the AAA manager were promoted to take over a club in-season. As a matter of fact, eons ago, the Brewers did that when Del Crandall was brought up from AAA to take over after a bad start.

 

The 1972 Brewers though were not going to win anything. I can't imagine firing Ned during the season next year will be a harbinger of good things.

 

Do you think Kremblas would be a viable in-season replacement?

 

I think he would be -- but I can't imagine he would want the job (assuming Ned tanks it hard)

[Bucky Rules]

I think he would be -- but I can't imagine he would want the job (assuming Ned tanks it hard)

Did you intend for that to be in blue? I'm pretty sure he would take the job. I know I'm going wayyyyyyyyy out on a limb here, but I'm sticking to my guns on this one.

[Thurston Fluff]

I would love to see Kremblas get a shot at the job, I just wish this would happen now. Yost has had his chance and failed to improve his decision making. If you dont improve in 5 years you will never improve. Time for fresh blood. As far as replacing Yost in season which will likely happen I fear that Sveum would be given a shot before Kremblas despite no credentials for the job. If Melvin and Mark A had any foresight whatsoever they wouldnt take a chance on ruining another potential postseason run with loser Ned ruining the team.

Have you looked at either of their credentials?

 

Dale Sveum

Managed Double-A Altoona in the Pirates organization from 2001-2003, compiling a 213-211 (.502) record...Led Altoona to its first back-to-back winning seasons in 2002 (72-69) and 2003 (78-63), including the clubs first appearance in the Eastern League playoffs in 2003...Named Top Managerial Prospect in the Eastern League by Baseball America in 2003.

 

Frank Kremblas

In 1998 Kremblas became the manager of the Gulf Coast League Expos, a Rookie League team. He was promoted to the Single-A Cape Fear Crocs in 1999. After the California League All-Star break of 2000, he became manager of the Mudville Nine. In 2001 he guided the High Desert Mavericks to the second round of the California League playoffs.

Kremblas was made skipper of the Double-A Huntsville Stars in 2002, where he would stay through the 2004 season. During his time with the Stars he also served as manager for the 2004 Southern League All-Star Game, coach for the 2003 All-Star Futures Game, and coach for the 2003 Arizona Fall League Peoria Saguaros.

In 2005 he was promoted to the Triple-A Nashville Sounds where he guided the team to win the Pacific Coast League Championship. Next season he managed the team to win the American Conference - Northern Division title before losing in the conference finals. He began the 2007 season in Nashville.

 

I don't see any reason to believe one would be better than the other than Sveum Named Top Managerial Prospect in the Eastern League by Baseball America in 2003.

 

For the record I also believe Leyva and Sedar won similar awards in the past.

 

Sveum, Leyva and Sedar have time with the big league staff which seems to be a sort of stepping stone to managerial positions. The Kremblas love just has me baffled. Not that he's bad or anything but obviously when it came time for promotions to the big leagues last year Kremblas wasn't the first choice within the organization.

If there is a replacement I'd like to see Sedar get a shot first.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's really, really hard to try to employ minor league managerial records to portray qualification/lack thereof for a mangerial position. The job down there is player development way before wins & losses. While I certainly won't take away the success of any minor league skipper, it should be taken with a grain of salt, as both he (generic managerial candidate) and other minor league managers are not necessarily playing every game to win it.

 

As a general rule, it's very hard to use a manager's record to gauge his ability. Unless you have a guy who's in one position, with a very similar talent level for many years, there are just too many variables. Look at Joe Torre - long tenure, nice W-L record, championships, etc., and many Yankees fans complain about his mishandling of the bullpen and pitchers. He doesn't have the strategic nuance of pitchers hitting to worry about, so how do you really judge him? Is he a "good" manager since he is continually provided with players that other teams simply cannot afford to sign - or is he "average," or "bad"?

 

Bobby Cox is a strong example of a proven manager that is likely correctly labeled as "good," but that's largely because he's maintained success over a decade, with varying talent levels. However, when his talent has dropped off (2006), he had a losing team. Managers are largely incorrectly labeled poor or good - when in reality the players are what dictates W-L record. Where Yost differs in my eyes is that he's very poor at managing in the game. He does many other things well, but that's simply not one of them. I can agree to toss out the "Closer only in the 9th/8th with 2 outs with the lead" rule, since it seems that every manager does that. Look at the basics, and the way Yost out-thinks himself, saving guys for hypothetical matchups that usually never occur, instead of reacting to or creating a situation in the moment.

 

I don't believe that there exists a reliable metric or measure for evaluating a manager, so I then look at the way in which he has the most direct impact on the team - creating matchups (including putting together lineups). There are many other aspects of the job (which are important too), but on a team with the talent to win, and players established at their positions, imho the in-game adjustments are the most important.

[Hart Of Milwaukee]

Just a question when do we expect to know the details of next years coaching staff? I really don't want Sveum back, I'd rather have someone like Ken Macha who has MLB head coaching experience. However, I do not want someone who is gonna force Ned to look over his shoulder every step of the way.

[trwi7]

I think he would be -- but I can't imagine he would want the job (assuming Ned tanks it hard)

Did you intend for that to be in blue? I'm pretty sure he would take the job. I know I'm going wayyyyyyyyy out on a limb here, but I'm sticking to my guns on this one.

 

I can see his point. If Ned gets fired that means the Brewers are playing bad and if I were Kremblas I wouldn't want to take the job if there was a chance that I'm just the fill in guy until the end of the season. Now if they assure him that he's the manager for the rest of the season and beyond of course he would jump at it.

[tigerbrew]

I would love to see Kremblas get a shot at the job, I just wish this would happen now.

Me too, Kremblas deserves a shot and I much prefer that he be appointed before spring training than in mid season.

[DougJones43]

Me too, Kremblas deserves a shot and I much prefer that he be appointed before spring training than in mid season.

That's exactly how I feel, whether it's Kremblas or anybody else. I mean, if Yost is fired in the middle of the season next year, that pretty much means that the team has already dug themselves in a hole and is probably playing like crap. Then somebody is supposed to just take over the struggling team (like a child who wanders into the middle of a movie!), and turn things around on a dime without any chance to work and prepare with the guys? Without a fresh start, and a chance to instill their philosophies, fundamentals, and teaching methods from the beginning? It's an absurd way to handle the situation. Just make a decision already.

 

If it's Yost, so be it. But what does Melvin expect to learn about Yost in April/May next year that he doesn't already know? Ned might make marginal changes here and there, but he's basically going to be the same guy we've seen for the past 5 years.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree. While the 'short leash' situation may seem to some (since I admittedly don't like Yost) that it's one I'd relish, I am with DJ43 100% in that I don't want to see this approach. Like he said, what else does Melvin have to learn about Ned? I go back to my post about this being an employment-insurance umbrella for Doug, as I really see no other motivation for it.

 

If it's Doug saying, 'I really like Ned and want him to do well, but won't be afraid to pull the plug in my contract year,' fine - even though that still reeks of self-preservation (not that I can/could blame any GM). Any way you slice it, the 'let's see how Ned does' approach is flawed. If you doubt his relevance, cut the cord sooner rather than later. The longer you wait, the worse the outcome will likely be.

[clancyphile]

I know you're not one of the stat junkies FTJ so you might think this has more merit than others. While every manager uses stats anyone that uses them alone isn't going to do his team justice. Even if you take into account long term trends there is something to be said for guys in the zone. Every player goes through streaks where their mechanics are perfect they see the ball well ect. It makes sense when a amanger sees a player in one of those streaks to use him more. Let's take Ned out of the equation and just go generic for a second. Managers in general have been around baseball longer than many of us have been alive. They can see small sample stats and use it in combination with what they've seen in batting prctice and recent games. If they got a lot of cheap hits the sample doesn't show it but the eyes do. If he sees a guy who is hitting the ball on the screws and is laying off the balls he's likely to believe that player can hit someone with superior stats in a given situation at that particualr time. There is nothing wrong with that type of approach IMO. Has Ned done some awfully strange things? Yes. Has he made moves That I believe to be wrong? Agian yes. That doesn't mean his whole approach is off if (and to me this is the big IF) he is doing so not by gut feeling but by actual observable evidence. Same can be said for the pitching aspect. Again I believe he needs serious improvement and a sound harsh self evaluation of his observation abilities. That doens't mean small samples plus astute observations of how well a guy is playing that particular instance somehow has no merit.

Even then, I'm not going to criticize a guy for going with gut instinct/feeling. One can never tell with a lot of things in baseball.

 

If stats were the end-all and be-all, then the 1969 Mets would have been destroyed in the World Series by the Orioles. Or how about the 1988 World Series, where the Dodgers were pretty much outclassed by the A's - at least on paper. I think we all know how those turned out. The Mets won in `69, and the A's never recovered from that walk-off homer in Game 1 in 1988.

[Baldkin]

Yes, anything can happen in 7 games.

 

The Pirates/Yankees series in 1960 being another prime example...

The Yankees outscored the Pirates 38-3 in the three games they won. For the Series as a whole, the Yankees outscored the Pirates 55-27

 

The issue for me with Ned is if he consistently puts the team in the best possible position to succeed.... and he didn't do that this year. Suddenly he found himself in a pennant race, and he was still managing for next year, as he had the previous 4 years.

[Fatter than Joey]

If stats were the end-all and be-all, then the 1969 Mets would have been destroyed in the World Series by the Orioles.

 

Ned uses stats -- He uses them stupidly. He will give players starts based on a 10 AB sample where they performed well.

 

Ned is not a "gut" manager, he is a terrible stat manager.

[Thurston Fluff]

Ned uses stats -- He uses them stupidly. He will give players starts based on a 10 AB sample where they performed well.

 

I think you are assuming it's based solely on those 10 ab's. I think he's taking more into account than that. How they are swinging the bat lately, the type of hitter they are vs the type of pitcher being faced. If a guy went 5 for 10 agianst a certain pitcher it may or may not be purely luck. If you have a guy who hits high inside fastballs well and the pitcher is a high fastball pitcher it makes ense there ismore to it than simply luck. That IMHO is what pure stat people fail to take into account. Add to a favorable style hitter vs pitcher the hitter is swinging the bat well all his mechanicxs are in order and everything thrown at him looks like a pumkin and those 10 ab's mean more than people would liek to admit. Does that mean it will work out every time? No. But it isn't something that is born out of pure idiocy like some think.

 

BTW TooliveBrew that was the best arguement I have yet to see regarding Ned's failures. Very well thought out and articulate. It certainly gives someone like me who likes Ned something to think about.

[bklynbrewcrew]

The letter should have pointed out that mediocrity is the goal of the organization and thank the fans for showing up in record numbers for a mediocre team. "Yes Ned is coming back to ensure that our playoff caliber roster falls short once again". As Ned has pointed out one of his goals was record attendance and because of him we achieved that". Ned is fine and an organization builder as Doug Melvin pointed out. He even let us trade Overbay so Fielder could have a shot. We are so lucky to have Ned and maybe if you fans wouldnt point out his many flaws he wouldnt be so belligerent. In summation please continue to be suckers as we will do our best to make sure we fall short of greatness"

[Fatter than Joey]

I think you are assuming it's based solely on those 10 ab's.

 

Ned has made many remarks when asked why Player X is starting, and he will reply with Player X hits Player Y well, and it is based on a ridiculously sized sample.

 

Embrace the darkside, it is so much easier.

[Thurston Fluff]

Ned has made many remarks when asked why Player X is starting, and he will reply with Player X hits Player Y well, and it is based on a ridiculously sized sample.

 

 

I guess part of "he hits him well'" is based off the other things I mentioned not just he's 5 for 10 against him. While his remarks made to the press after a game might not include a long winded explaination of all that goes into it that doesn't mean it's non-existant. The media wants sound bites and quick quotes not 1/2 hour explainations of everything that goes into every move in every game. I just don't believe any manager goes strickly by statistics small samples or large. They use stats as a tool not as an end all be all. If all that counted in being a good manager was translating relevenat stats they would hire accountants to manage the team not lifelong baseball people.