Ned Yost Yay or Nay thread: Hardball Times rips Yost (part 3)

[DougJones43]

I think the closer issue also has a lot to do with money. The best relievers want to be the closer because they will get saves and therefore recognition and money.

 

I understand that. At some point though, the GM and the manager can't let stuff like that dictate their attempts to run the most successful club possible. They need to be the ones deciding how the players will be used, otherwise the old adage "letting the inmates run the asylum" becomes a threat.

 

Jenkins and Mench both didn't want to platoon this year for the same reasons you listed. But guess what? It wasn't their decision.

[Fatter than Joey]

Well -- Since Melvin decided to attach himself to the anchor that is Ned Yost...

 

I vote nay for Doug Melvin, the mustache is in my cross-hairs.

[Fatter than Joey]

Interesting admissions from Melvin and Yost on game management skills being an area that Ned is still learning. No kidding.

 

Does Doug know you can hire managers that have completed Remedial Baseball 101? Which also...

 

But that is not what I'm fixated on...rather, it's the notion that the defense will improve naturally due to the fact that young players improve. A lot of people here have said that, and I wonder whether that is a valid assumption. I had been under the impression that defensive value tended to peak earlier than offensive value. Even if there is some improvement, can we get to good enough? Maybe in some cases...Hall seemed to improve over the course of the season. Weeks seems better at 2b this year, but better still doesn't necessarily mean good. But Fielder doesn't look like he'll ever be a defensive wiz, and Braun has a lot of improving to do before he's even close to average.

 

....makes me wonder why we are gambling that Yost will learn things, and our defense will improve just because everyone is older. I agree with SoCal here -- the one thing SoCal doesn't mention though is that all the measuring with Weeks has been done only by comparing New Weeks to Old Weeks, i.e. not across the league, I am afraid the same will be done with Braun -- There is a HUGE gap between Braun and the league average 3b. Braun could make an improvement, and still be the worst 3b in the league. This is what has happened with Weeks, we talk about Weeks getting better, -- and he has -- but when the smoke clears he still is among the worst 2b in the league. The same is true with Hall and CF -- he could and should improve, but still be among the bottom of the league.

[Postseason2006]

Why do people think Doug Melvin is all that anyhow? He never hired Jack Z. Nothing of value to really show for his big trades besides Cordero who can't save his butt on the road. The guy is average at best. All he has is more money to work with than Bando had.

[bklynbrewcrew]

So basically Melvin admitted that Yost is clueless on bullpen management yet is willing to assume that he will improve on that and other in game strategies after 5 clueless years. I used to think Melvin was amongst the top GMs in the game but I am left with less and less confidence by the day.

[RoseBowlMtg]

So was Pinella clueless hitting Zambrano in the 6th where he K'd only to take him out after that AB with only 85 pitches thrown. Pinella must be clueless managing!

[Ennder]

So was Pinella clueless hitting Zambrano in the 6th where he K'd only to take him out after that AB with only 85 pitches thrown. Pinella must be clueless managing!

 

It was certainly questionable on his part though Zambrano is a good hitter so letting him hit is different than letting someone else hit.

 

That doesn't really compare to using Aquino to face Pence with the game on the line though, apples to oranges.

[RoseBowlMtg]

I agree Z is a great hitter but I just thought I would throw that in. 15 pitches the previous inning with the 5,6,7 hitters coming up. Saving Z for game 4 instead of securing the win in game 1. I understand Pinella's thinking but this is one of those decisions Yost would have gotten killed on. Pinella just says his relievers have done well all year and that's that. Maybe maybe not if they lose tonight.

[sgtcluels]

Not to be a weirdo.. but is there a way to look at total votes casted? % with no numbers is meaningless with out sample sizing! (Ohh god I've become Russ)

 

Speaking of which.. is he a dad yet?

[Thurston Fluff]

Does Doug know you can hire managers that have completed Remedial Baseball 101? Which also...

 

FTJ I remember you saying several times this year the thing you wanted Yost to do was learn from his mistakes. Now you want him to already know everything? No one without prior experince will know it all. If Ned does learn to make better moves he could be a very positive factor going forward since he's already pretty darn good at the other aspects of his job.

[Fatter than Joey]

FTJ I remember you saying several times this year the thing you wanted Yost to do was learn from his mistakes.

 

Yes -- and he failed. -- That was me being blissfully optimistic.

 

Now you want him to already know everything?

 

No, I want him fired and someone who has "learned" to be hired.

 

No one without prior experience will know it all.

 

Ned has had 5 years -- There are some FA managers like Mike Hargrove, etc. that have all the experience necessary.

 

If Ned does learn to make better moves he could be a very positive factor going forward since he's already pretty darn good at the other aspects of his job.

 

I am skeptical of Ned's ability to learn, and in no way do I think he is good at ANY aspect of his job.

 

He has had 5 years -- Wait until he poops himself when the heat is on in April instead of July.

[Fatter than Joey]

Pinella must be clueless managing!

 

Pinella said he was saving Zambrano for game 4. Personally I think he should have left Z in.

 

That said -- I can hardly fault him for giving the ball to a guy like Marmol, which as Ennder points out is WAY different from handing the ball to Aquino.

[Thurston Fluff]

I am skeptical of Ned's ability to learn, and in no way do I think he is good at ANY aspect of his job.

 

WOW I like you FTJ so take this for what it's worth but I think the second part of that statement says more about you hating Yost than it does about Ned's actual abilities. Just hard to believe Melvin would risk his own job security on someone who didn't have a single quality that made him capable of managing.

[Patrick425]

FTJ just doesn't like Ned because Yost is 53 and probably likes Bob Seger music. http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/happy.gif

[Fatter than Joey]

WOW I like you FTJ so take this for what it's worth but I think the second part of that statement says more about you hating Yost than it does about Ned's actual abilities.

 

Thanks for the nice thought. I think Ned can't manage his BP, he had Estrada batting 5th most of the year, I don't think he is good at lineups/starting players, I think he uses stats horribly, he handles the media horribly, the fans don't like him, and his players (I think) would love to see him on or under a bus. What good aspect am I missing? Nose-picking? Talking Nascar to Sveum?

 

Just hard to believe Melvin would risk his own job security on someone who didn't have a single quality that made him capable of managing.

 

I wholeheartedly agree. Doug Melvin is the captain of the SS Yostantic. Melvin is on my DFA list for sure as well now.

[Fatter than Joey]

WOW I like you FTJ so take this for what it's worth but I think the second part of that statement says more about you hating Yost than it does about Ned's actual abilities.

 

Thanks for the nice thought. I think Ned can't manage his BP, he had Estrada batting 5th most of the year, I don't think he is good at lineups/starting players, I think he uses stats horribly, he handles the media horribly, the fans don't like him, and his players (I think) would love to see him on or under a bus. What good aspect am I missing? Nose-picking? Talking Nascar to Sveum?

 

Just hard to believe Melvin would risk his own job security on someone who didn't have a single quality that made him capable of managing.

 

I wholeheartedly agree. Doug Melvin is the captain of the SS Yostantic. Melvin is on my DFA list for sure as well now.

[homer]

Batting order aside (and its debatable what effect that has on run production) what did he do re: starting lineups that bothered you?

[trwi7]

FTJ just doesn't like Ned because Yost is 53 and probably likes Bob Seger music. http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/happy.gif

 

It seems like yesterday

But it was long ago

Janey was lovely, she was the queen of my nights

There in the darkness with the radio, playing low

And the secrets that we shared

The mountains that we moved

Caught like a wildfire out of control

Till there was nothing left to burn and nothing left to prove

And I remember what she said to me

How she swore that it never would end

I remember how she held me oh so tight

Wish I didnt know now what I didnt know then

 

Against the wind

We were runnin against the wind

We were young and strong, we were runnin

Against the wind

 

Screw it I'm not finishing the song takes too long.

[Fatter than Joey]

Screw it I'm not finishing the song takes too long.

 

I wish Bob Seger would end everysong like that.

[Fatter than Joey]

what did he do re: starting lineups that bothered you?

 

Playing the "hot hand"

 

FTJ just doesn't like Ned because Yost is 53 and probably likes Bob Seger music.

 

That would be 2 strikes against him.

[Thurston Fluff]

I know you're not one of the stat junkies FTJ so you might think this has more merit than others. While every manager uses stats anyone that uses them alone isn't going to do his team justice. Even if you take into account long term trends there is something to be said for guys in the zone. Every player goes through streaks where their mechanics are perfect they see the ball well ect. It makes sense when a amanger sees a player in one of those streaks to use him more. Let's take Ned out of the equation and just go generic for a second. Managers in general have been around baseball longer than many of us have been alive. They can see small sample stats and use it in combination with what they've seen in batting prctice and recent games. If they got a lot of cheap hits the sample doesn't show it but the eyes do. If he sees a guy who is hitting the ball on the screws and is laying off the balls he's likely to believe that player can hit someone with superior stats in a given situation at that particualr time. There is nothing wrong with that type of approach IMO. Has Ned done some awfully strange things? Yes. Has he made moves That I believe to be wrong? Agian yes. That doesn't mean his whole approach is off if (and to me this is the big IF) he is doing so not by gut feeling but by actual observable evidence. Same can be said for the pitching aspect. Again I believe he needs serious improvement and a sound harsh self evaluation of his observation abilities. That doens't mean small samples plus astute observations of how well a guy is playing that particular instance somehow has no merit.

[joeyhepatitis]

joeyhepatitis wrote:

A good example of a manager using a different bullpen strategy effectively is Melvin with the Diamondbacks. He managed to the talent rather than forcing the talent to fit into the accepted and basic MLB strategy.

Again you are talking about a guy with a much better bulpen. He also only used his closer in a nonsave situation once. On 7/8/07 he used his closer in the bottom of an extra innings game on the road. His closer only pitched more than an inning on one occasion. That was on 8/1/07 when Valverde blew a save and was left in for the next inning. To me this does not point to pattern of strategy much different than Yost's.

Sorry, I didn't mean to make it sound like Yost should adopt Melvin's way of handling a bullpen. I was just using him as an example of a guy who managed to the needs of the team - he knew there was no incentive to keep the game close in the late innings if his team was behind because the odds of late-inning heroics with a team that ranked 2nd to last in .avg and .obp and 26th in runs scored so he maximized his team's potential in games where they were ahead while refusing to wear his bullpen down in games where they were behind. Obviously this is every team's goal, but I think we can agree that it's a lot more difficult than it seems and a lot depends on luck.

 

From the NYTimes -

"If a pitcher has a Leverage Index of 2, that means that he was used in situations that affected his team's wins and losses twice as much as average - most likely the late innings of tied or one-run games. Arizona's three best relievers (the closer José Valverde and the setup men Brandon Lyon and Tony Peña) have combined for an impressive 1.70 L.I., while its worst (Brandon Medders, Edgar González, and Dustin Nippert) have an 0.47 L.I."

This accounts for part of the team's outperformance: Once the outcome of a game is all but settled, Melvin gives his bullpen aces a rest and brings in the mop-up men, resulting in some blowout losses. By contrast, when the result is in doubt, he uses his best relievers. Of course, all teams pursue this strategy, but Melvin has done so more effectively. The Braves, by contrast, handed 44 innings at an L.I. above 2 to the ineffective Bob Wickman before releasing him, while their best reliever, Rafael Soriano, has an L.I. of 1.17. Unsurprisingly, they have won four fewer games than their Pythagorean projection.

 

My problem is that Yost's late-inning strategies seem divorced from the team on the field. The Brewers have bad defense and an unreliable bullpen but they can hit for power up and down the line-up. It just made no sense for me to see Yost taking the bat out of our best hitter's hands and relying on the defense and bullpen to shut down the other team. Bringing Counsell in for Braun in the 7th inning was like putting a band-aid on a bullet-wound and then going back into the fight without a weapon. He adopted a small-ball attitude in the late innings even though it regularly forced the hitters who couldn't lay down a bunt to try and lay down a bunt and force the bat out of the hands of Hart and Hardy. I'd assume that all the complaints that the Brewers couldn't manufacture runs would convince Yost that we weren't the sort of team built to manufacture runs, instead it just seemed like it gave Yost the idea that the Brewers needed to start trading outs for runs if they were to succeed.

 

Whatever, it's all a moot point if the Brewers continue to get better since good teams take decisions like these out of the manager's hands. He won't have to pick out the mediocre outfielder to start, he'll just have a starting left-fielder. He won't have to gamble on AAA pitchers shutting down the opposing team, he'll have bullpen of quality relievers to pick from. He won't have to sub out our best hitter in the 7th, our best hitter will have either improved defensively or moved to a position where he's less of a liability.

[joeyhepatitis]

I don't know why the font got all messed up.

[Time for a Miller]

First, I do not think fans hate Yost. I consider myself a fan and I like the man still. Other fans I have talked to who are not Super Brewer dorks (aka us BF.netters. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif) are mostly oblivious to this debate.

 

Second, as far as the importance of batting order, it is slightly important, but not as much as people think. In similations stacking the order by OPS results in the most runs. If you stalked your order in the most mathematicaly smart way, Prince would be leading of and this would result in about 2 more wins every 5 seasons. If you stalked you lineup in the worst possible way (the pitcher leading off) this would result in 4-5 more losses compared with traditional and opitimal lineups. Yes, I aggree that Yost stuck with Estrada to long in the 5 spot. I had no problem with him batting there to start the year, but he did not preform. That is how Yost manages however. He sticks with guys. It has worked out sometimes, and othertimes it has not as with Estrada.

[1992casey]

I don't know why the font got all messed up.

I'll fix it for you. There are technical reasons behind it, but the bottom line is that Yuku's font controls leave a lot to be desired. From the Usability FAQ:

How do I avoid funky results when I resize fonts in my posts?

Simply put, this feature needs improvement, so you probably won't completely avoid unexpected results. Brewerfan has made Yuku aware if its concerns about this.

The most practical advice is to use the font resize feature sparingly. It works best if you type your post in the default font first, then go back and selectively resize the fonts you'd like to have larger or smaller. (Actually, you can type a character or two ahead, then go back and resize. The issue is that returning to the default font size is very difficult.)

The stuff actually also applies to changing to different typefaces. I should update the FAQ to reflect that.