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Impressions of Roenicke so far (part 3)

Bernman23

By Bernman23,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

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Raw Biz

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rawbecht,

 

That ball that Morgan didn't get was crushed. The ball Pujols hit out was such a bad pitch that virtually every guy in their lineup would have gotten the same result. He's fortunate it stayed in the park. Had he gone 6 innings, he probably would have allowed 10 runs.

I still think Gomez catches that. Morgan is terrible going back and Gomez is great. And you obviously didn't pay attention to what I said. If Marcum picks up Jay's out, Pujols' HR is only 1 run. If Morgan hangs on to that first ball, there's an out. If Hart hangs on to Pujols foul or Gomez is out there and catches it, that double doesn't happen. Obviously these are a lot of what ifs but my point is, if some things go the Brewers' way there, Marcum doesn't give up much. It's not like everyone was hitting froze rope balls to the gaps.
This is Jack Burton in the Pork Chop Express, and I'm talkin' to whoever's listenin' out there.
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RockCoCougars ACL Brewers

RockCoCougars

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Marcum is either missing badly on pitches or leaving everything up in the zone. I'm not going to speculate on why, but he's been doing this for the better part of 6 weeks. Pitchers like him need to have some confidence in their stuff, and he has none right now. I don't want to see him starting Game 6 unless the Brewers can take 2 of 3 in St. Louis. Even then, he had better have a very short leash (as in five batters- not five innings).
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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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While I certainly agree that the small sample argument applies (and I HATE 'vs. team' splits), I don't think you can just dismiss that Marcums' been awful lately, and it may well be due to the fact that he's reached an innings total that he's never topped before.
I'm not dismissing it as a possibility. I'm suggesting that we shouldn't assume he's "obviously toast" because he's had bad results his last few outings.

"Marcum is either missing badly on pitches or leaving everything up in the zone. I'm not going to speculate on why, but he's been doing this for the better part of 6 weeks."

 

Do have evidence of this or is it "obvious" based off the results? You may be 100% correct but I see some assuming going on here. Is it so wrong to ask people to back up their declarative statements? The easy part is coming up with a hypothesis.
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SconnieKid Prep Ball

SconnieKid

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Marcum's last three starts are literally his worst three starts of the year. In all three he has given up at least 5 ER and hasn't made it through the 5th. I have no understanding how anyone could suggest the trajectory he is on has just been a little bumpy of late. He has hit the ground and is in a flaming heap.

 

Narveson might not be great but he is certainly game and very fresh. And he has had some great outings in big spots this year. Its a no-brainer to me.

Because his last start could very well have been something like 6 IP, 2 ER. Morgan and Hart both had balls pop out of their gloves and if Gomez was in CF, probably would've caught Pujols' ball. Jay reached on a hit and run with a groundball where the 3B would have been. Marcum messed up a bunt that he probably turns into an out most of the time.

I've said it before and I'll keep saying it, you can't judge a pitcher solely on what the numbers turn out to be. With a few "luck" factors going the Brewers way that game, I think Marcum turns in a quality start. I think the same thing applies to his AZ start because there were really only 2 hard hit balls against him there. He's still one of our 3 best pitchers and he went 8 IP 1 ER on 9/20. Yes that start was sandwiched by a few bad ones (according to the numbers) but I still think he's the best option compared to non-streched-out Estrada/Narveson. That being said, I think Roenicke should have a quick hook with him if he gets into trouble in his next start.

WAT? He went 4 innings. GOT CRUSHED. His change-up, his only go-to pitch is worthless as it is faster and flatter than it has been all season. In the playoffs he has had 18 reach base in 8 2/3. You could put a few more outfielders on the field and it wouldn't matter. That you could suggest that that debacle of a start could have been a quality start with a little help makes you blind to what is happening. He has missed badly on a huge number of 0-2 and 1-2 pitches. He doesn't have majestic stuff so when he misses in the zone it gets hit hard. I would forgive two bad starts but he has had one decent start in 6+ weeks now and that was against a terrible team. He is well over his career high in innings pitched and its clear his arm is dragging.

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SoCal Brew Crew Fan ACL Brewers

SoCal Brew Crew Fan

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I think dismissing those that are concerned about Marcum as small sample size as terrible analysis is simply not valid. Normally I would agree with you guys but in this case there is some awfully strong evidence that he has hit some type of wall. His location has been off and his effectiveness has waned. There are theories on this including injury or he's just gassed or maybe it's just a bad streak he could reverse. In truth we don't really know the answer, but all of those explanations are certainly plausible.

 

So the questions are...is something wrong with Marcum or is it just a blip? It's not conclusive, but I'd say something is wrong. That many innings, that little control...in my eyes this is not a healthy Marcum. Do we have a better option in Narveson? Frankly I'm not sure. Here's where there is a small sample issue. He's been effective against St. Louis, but only in 2 outings. He's by far our 5th best starter...he's not in a healthy Marcum's league. He's also not pitched that long in awhile.

 

If it was me, I'd probably go with Narveson and Wholestaff it, but in reality RR has to be the one to make the call...he's the only one with the full access to the information of the current state of Marcum and the alternatives. A proper answer can't come from my naked eye saying Marcum isn't right or a long series of stats that says Marcum is the better pitcher when we may not be dealing with the same Marcum. No rational person is saying Marcum is Suppan 2.0, but to me there is enough evidence to say something is wrong.

 

I just hope we aren't down 3-2 going into game 6...that's going to be an awfully tough, no win call for RR to make...unless of course, we win.

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FVBrewerFan Carolina Mudcats

FVBrewerFan

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Is Kotsay in CF official for Game 3? Wow. I was excited when it sounded lie Gomez would get the start, because I think at this point he should be starting. Great defense, and a bat that may be a little better than Plush at this point. And you can still use Plush as a PH late in the game, where he thrives. I really thought RR was getting it. Sitting McGehee, shrtening the roatation and bullpen. Lots of solid decisions. But Kotsay in CF??? I just don't get that at all.

 

As far as Marcum goes, the gutsy thing would be to start Peralta. (he would have to be on the post-season roster of course.) But that's hindsight. Not saying RR should have prepared the roster that way. Just looking back, it sure would be nice to have that option to consider. But, back to reality, I would honestly give Fiers a shot before Narveson. But I would still take Marcum over either one. I just believe he is more likely to come up with a solid performance over Narvy or anyone else.

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Raw Biz First Round Pick

Raw Biz

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WAT? He went 4 innings. GOT CRUSHED. His change-up, his only go-to pitch is worthless as it is faster and flatter than it has been all season. In the playoffs he has had 18 reach base in 8 2/3. You could put a few more outfielders on the field and it wouldn't matter. That you could suggest that that debacle of a start could have been a quality start with a little help makes you blind to what is happening. He has missed badly on a huge number of 0-2 and 1-2 pitches. He doesn't have majestic stuff so when he misses in the zone it gets hit hard. I would forgive two bad starts but he has had one decent start in 6+ weeks now and that was against a terrible team. He is well over his career high in innings pitched and its clear his arm is dragging.
Like I said, I don't think he's pitched as bad as the numbers have shown. He might not be the 3 ERA pitcher he was all year but I also don't think he's the 8 ERA pitcher he has been for the past month. I'm also not saying there isn't something wrong with him. He could be gassed or it could be mental or it could be a bad stretch. We just don't know for sure.

But, I also think Marcum now is still better than Wolf/Estrada/Narveson. Estrada and Narveson aren't stretched out and neither have great stuff either.

And if 1 run in 8 IP is decent, then what do you consider great?

 

This is Jack Burton in the Pork Chop Express, and I'm talkin' to whoever's listenin' out there.
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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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So the questions are...is something wrong with Marcum or is it just a blip? It's not conclusive, but I'd say something is wrong. That many innings, that little control...in my eyes this is not a healthy Marcum.
It's not very many innings at all, that's the point. That doesn't mean that his poor play isn't a result of an injury or something else but statistically, it could very easily just be an anomaly. Your intuition may tell you otherwise but the numbers are the numbers.

This is the same conversation we have whenever any player struggles over a limited period. E.G. Gallardo and Greinke earlier in the year.

 

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DuWayne Steurer Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

DuWayne Steurer

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There have been times........good grief, where I've wanted to break the rules and curse here......but this makes me not even care if I were to get banned.

 

Yes, RR may very well get lucky and Kotsay go 2 - 4 and nobody hits a ball where the difference between Gomez and Kotsay would make a difference, but WHY take that chance?

 

This is just plain idiotic. Id-i-otic

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TooLiveBrew Milwaukee Brewers

TooLiveBrew

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Jebus Ron, Kotsay in Center and batting second? I'd like to see the RRR supporters try to defend this one.

I've defended and supported Roenicke all year. At this point, I got nothin'

If anyone can't see that this team has won in spite of flat-out stupid managerial decisions this year, I don't know what to say.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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