Impressions of Roenicke so far (part 3)

[SconnieKid]

Morgan hasn't really done anything all postseason

How soon they forget...

 

You do realize he was 2/3 with a run and the game winning RBI in extra innings to win Game 5 just four days ago right?

 

That said I wanted him pulled last night. When he isn't right he isn't right. GoGo has earned a spot.

[The Truth]

I'd much prefer Gomez over Morgan in just about any playoff game. Morgan has hurt us defensively

 

Overall I like Roenicke. Would like to see him have 2 relief pitchers available/warming up at a time and I'm still convinced that Loe should never ever face a lefty except perhaps in Spring Training when he's pitching in scrimmages vs Brewers hitters

[Raw Biz]

Don't forget Kotsay. He's 4 for 11 in his career against Carpenter and those are the kind of crap stats that Roenicke tends to look at. If he thinks he would need another bat, Kotsay could be starting. I think that would be a horrible decision. At least Morgan was able to keep a couple of those balls close yesterday. Kotsay wouldn't have been near them. With as bad as the team has been defensively, I would start Gomez.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Morgan hasn't really done anything all postseason

How soon they forget...

 

You do realize he was 2/3 with a run and the game winning RBI in extra innings to win Game 5 just four days ago right?

 

That said I wanted him pulled last night. When he isn't right he isn't right. GoGo has earned a spot.

Sure people will cut him slack because he got the game winning hit in Game 5, but other than that he's been pretty bad in the postseason. I'll give him credit for the clutch hit, but his defense last night and lack of offensive production in all but one game have hurt us.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/131559193.html

 

More genius from Roenicke. Ugh. I'd rather have Narveson for 3-4 good innings, than Marcum for 3-4 bad innings.

[burnzy24]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/131559193.html

 

More genius from Roenicke. Ugh. I'd rather have Narveson for 3-4 good innings, than Marcum for 3-4 bad innings.

He is also thinking about benching Morgan due to his poor defense, yet is considering putting Kotsay in CF against Carpenter. Makes perfect sense.

[Ennder]

He is in a no win situation, if he pitches Narveson over Marcum people like me will say he is an idiot if Narveson pitches poorly, if he has Marcum go and he gets lit up he'll be called an idiot by most of the rest of the board. That is what the manager is there for apparently, to be second guessed~.

[burnzy24]

He is in a no win situation, if he pitches Narveson over Marcum people like me will say he is an idiot if Narveson pitches poorly, if he has Marcum go and he gets lit up he'll be called an idiot by most of the rest of the board. That is what the manager is there for apparently, to be second guessed~.

Except the way Marcum has pitched the last 2 games (and month for that matter) no one would really second guess him for trying Narveson.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, I wouldn't bash him for starting Narveson. It's worth trying something different. If Marcum starts, I'll go into the game expected him to get rocked. At least I'll have some hope if Narveson takes the mound.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/131559193.html

 

More genius from Roenicke. Ugh. I'd rather have Narveson for 3-4 good innings, than Marcum for 3-4 bad innings.

He is also thinking about benching Morgan due to his poor defense, yet is considering putting Kotsay in CF against Carpenter. Makes perfect sense.

Yeah, it better be Gomez if Morgan doesn't start. I'd rather have the defense. Kotsay is no better option than Morgan offensively. Actually, he may not be better than Gomez offensively at this point. Gomez has been swinging it well lately.

[Ennder]

He is in a no win situation, if he pitches Narveson over Marcum people like me will say he is an idiot if Narveson pitches poorly, if he has Marcum go and he gets lit up he'll be called an idiot by most of the rest of the board. That is what the manager is there for apparently, to be second guessed~.

Except the way Marcum has pitched the last 2 games (and month for that matter) no one would really second guess him for trying Narveson.

I think it would be a terrible move. Take a guy who hasn't started in a long time and hasn't pitched much recently over one of your better pitchers just because the pitcher is having a bad stretch, the same kind of stretch that pitchers have at some point every single year all based on a small sample size of innings by Narveson that includes games against players that aren't even on the team anymore. Add to that the fact the Cardinals are slightly better against lefties. If Narveson pitches poorly second guessers come out of the woodwork too, I guarantee it.

 

Now starting Kotsay in CF is just silly, so I really hope that one doesn't happen.

[Oldcity]

Yeah I wouldn't go Narveson either. He hasn't started in a long time, and more importantly, he isn't nearly as good of a pitcher as Marcum.

 

Kotsay in CF would result in me breaking something.

[ninja33]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/131559193.html

 

More genius from Roenicke. Ugh. I'd rather have Narveson for 3-4 good innings, than Marcum for 3-4 bad innings.

He is also thinking about benching Morgan due to his poor defense, yet is considering putting Kotsay in CF against Carpenter. Makes perfect sense.

I thought his quote from the JS blog was that each run is important when you're up against carpenter, and with Morgan struggling he might need to sit out. Haudricourt then goes on to speculate that it could mean Kotsay...idk if RRR specifically mentioned using Kotsay or Morgan's defense as a reason why. Could be part of a quote I didn't see though.

[The Truth]

Kotsay in CF would result in me breaking something.

That would be unbelievable, wouldn't it?! Especially with the way Kotsay has looked at the plate in the postseason.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think it would be a terrible move. Take a guy who hasn't started in a long time and hasn't pitched much recently over one of your better pitchers just because the pitcher is having a bad stretch, the same kind of stretch that pitchers have at some point every single year all based on a small sample size of innings by Narveson that includes games against players that aren't even on the team anymore

 

I would rather they went with Marcum for some of the reasons you mentioned but keep in mind Marcum has played more innings and games than he ever has. It may just be a bad stretch or it may be he's tired. I can see the arguments for going either way.

[rluzinski]

He is in a no win situation, if he pitches Narveson over Marcum people like me will say he is an idiot if Narveson pitches poorly, if he has Marcum go and he gets lit up he'll be called an idiot by most of the rest of the board. That is what the manager is there for apparently, to be second guessed~.

Except the way Marcum has pitched the last 2 games (and month for that matter) no one would really second guess him for trying Narveson.

I think it would be a terrible move. Take a guy who hasn't started in a long time and hasn't pitched much recently over one of your better pitchers just because the pitcher is having a bad stretch, the same kind of stretch that pitchers have at some point every single year all based on a small sample size of innings by Narveson that includes games against players that aren't even on the team anymore.

Agreed. All many people seem to care about is how well players have performed in the playoffs and against specific teams. Just terrible analysis.

[DuWayne Steurer]

While I certainly agree that the small sample argument applies (and I HATE 'vs. team' splits), I don't think you can just dismiss that Marcums' been awful lately, and it may well be due to the fact that he's reached an innings total that he's never topped before. He may well have reached his physical limit.

 

That being said, Narveson may well not be the answer either, but I don't think it's a simple case where you can say "Pff, the last month is a small sample, it's just bad luck", given the presence of other data that may suggest it could be that Marcum's just hit the wall.

[RockCoCougars]

Why does it have to be Narveson? I'd actually prefer to use Estrada to start (obviously with a quick hook). He tends to throw strikes. Despite not being 'stretched out', his arm isn't going to fall off if he throws three innings.

[TooLiveBrew]

Estrada's not a bad choice. He'd probably be the guy to go after any potentially long rain delay in tonight's game, too.

[NievesNoNO]

Ennder[/b]]

I think it would be a terrible move. Take a guy who hasn't started in a long time and hasn't pitched much recently over one of your better pitchers just because the pitcher is having a bad stretch, the same kind of stretch that pitchers have at some point every single year all based on a small sample size of innings by Narveson that includes games against players that aren't even on the team anymore. Add to that the fact the Cardinals are slightly better against lefties. If Narveson pitches poorly second guessers come out of the woodwork too, I guarantee it.

 

Now starting Kotsay in CF is just silly, so I really hope that one doesn't happen.

 

The problem is they don't have a month for Marcum to turn the stretch around. This is where I think think manager, pitching coach, pitcher, catcher need to sit down and have an honest conversation about Marcum's stuff and how he's feeling. Easier said than done, as I'm sure Marcum will say he's fine and his catcher would likely back him up. For my money, when he's right he's the best pitcher on this team so to not start him would be really tough, but considering his month long struggles you have to consider it. At the very least Narveson/Estrada need to be ready to go in inning 1. They can't afford to realize he's running on empty after 4-5 runs are on the board.

[SconnieKid]

Marcum's last three starts are literally his worst three starts of the year. In all three he has given up at least 5 ER and hasn't made it through the 5th. I have no understanding how anyone could suggest the trajectory he is on has just been a little bumpy of late. He has hit the ground and is in a flaming heap.

 

Narveson might not be great but he is certainly game and very fresh. And he has had some great outings in big spots this year. Its a no-brainer to me.

[JohnBriggs12]

Yeah I wouldn't go Narveson either. He hasn't started in a long time, and more importantly, he isn't nearly as good of a pitcher as Marcum.

 

Kotsay in CF would result in me breaking something.

In the 35 games combined that Marcum has started the Brewers have a 16-19 record.

 

In the 28 games Narveson has started, the Brewers have a 16-12 record.

 

It's hard to make the argument that a guy with an 8.11 ERA in his last 30 innings is better than anyone.

 

Narveson last started on Sept. 25. That would be 3 weeks between starts. He should be able to go 80 pitches easily. He's made 3 relief appearances in the playoff in blowout losses, and all 3 hits he's allowed are HR but he has fanned 8 in 4 1/3. So his stuff is still good and likely in the spots he was in, he wasn't pitching around guys like he might starting a game. Another plus is he turns around Berkman, a much weaker hitter from the right side.

[Raw Biz]

Marcum's last three starts are literally his worst three starts of the year. In all three he has given up at least 5 ER and hasn't made it through the 5th. I have no understanding how anyone could suggest the trajectory he is on has just been a little bumpy of late. He has hit the ground and is in a flaming heap.

 

Narveson might not be great but he is certainly game and very fresh. And he has had some great outings in big spots this year. Its a no-brainer to me.

Because his last start could very well have been something like 6 IP, 2 ER. Morgan and Hart both had balls pop out of their gloves and if Gomez was in CF, probably would've caught Pujols' ball. Jay reached on a hit and run with a groundball where the 3B would have been. Marcum messed up a bunt that he probably turns into an out most of the time.

I've said it before and I'll keep saying it, you can't judge a pitcher solely on what the numbers turn out to be. With a few "luck" factors going the Brewers way that game, I think Marcum turns in a quality start. I think the same thing applies to his AZ start because there were really only 2 hard hit balls against him there. He's still one of our 3 best pitchers and he went 8 IP 1 ER on 9/20. Yes that start was sandwiched by a few bad ones (according to the numbers) but I still think he's the best option compared to non-streched-out Estrada/Narveson. That being said, I think Roenicke should have a quick hook with him if he gets into trouble in his next start.

[JohnBriggs12]

rawbecht,

 

That ball that Morgan didn't get was crushed. The ball Pujols hit out was such a bad pitch that virtually every guy in their lineup would have gotten the same result. He's fortunate it stayed in the park. Had he gone 6 innings, he probably would have allowed 10 runs.

[Raw Biz]

Yeah I wouldn't go Narveson either. He hasn't started in a long time, and more importantly, he isn't nearly as good of a pitcher as Marcum.

 

Kotsay in CF would result in me breaking something.

In the 35 games combined that Marcum has started the Brewers have a 16-19 record.

 

In the 28 games Narveson has started, the Brewers have a 16-12 record.

 

It's hard to make the argument that a guy with an 8.11 ERA in his last 30 innings is better than anyone.

I hate stats with a team's record in a pitcher's start. There are so many other factors that go into it, like run support. Remember when Braden Looper had like 12 wins? Those stats have little, if any, value to me.

Yo gave up 26 runs in 26.1 innings during a stretch at the beginning of the year. Would you have said he was terrible then? Obviously not. Regardless of what recent numbers say, Marcum is still a better pitcher than Wolf/Estrada/Narveson.