Impressions of Roenicke so far (part 3)

[Baldkin]

Don't worry, all the lefties are in the lineup today... except for Weeks, Braun.... and of course, YuniB!

 

Gotta get Kotsay that start... and hit him 2nd!

[Raw Biz]

Don't worry, all the lefties are in the lineup today... except for Weeks, Braun.... and of course, YuniB!

 

Gotta get Kotsay that start... and hit him 2nd!

And again using that career .286 average against a pitcher to justify it, despite a diminishing skill set. Kotsay is 0-6 against Arroyo this year. But he did go 1-1 against him in 2008 and 3-6 in 2004!

Seriously, when Roenicke uses crap stats like this, someone needs to have these stats ready to go. He may be 6-21 in his career against him but the last hit he got was 3 years ago and half the hits came 7 years ago.

[ninja33]

I don't know if Roenicke ever used a .286 average to justify it....that's something Haudricourt wrote in himself (possibly to try and explain an odd decision) it's not a quote from Roenicke. I'm definitely not agreeing with the move, I just think those words are being put into Roenicke's mouth.

 

Perhaps a better explanation (with a bigger sample size) would be Arroyo's .923 OPS against lefties (.697 v. righties) this season. Again, not agreeing with it...but if Haudricourt uses a stat like that it doesn't look as bad.

[logan82]

I don't know if Roenicke ever used a .286 average to justify it....that's something Haudricourt wrote in himself (possibly to try and explain an odd decision) it's not a quote from Roenicke. I'm definitely not agreeing with the move, I just think those words are being put into Roenicke's mouth.

 

Perhaps a better explanation (with a bigger sample size) would be Arroyo's .923 OPS against lefties (.697 v. righties) this season. Again, not agreeing with it...but if Haudricourt uses a stat like that it doesn't look as bad.

I would rather see Schafer out there instead of Kotsay.

[rluzinski]

Perhaps a better explanation (with a bigger sample size) would be Arroyo's .923 OPS against lefties (.697 v. righties) this season. Again, not agreeing with it...but if Haudricourt uses a stat like that it doesn't look as bad.

Not sure what is the average platoon split for a pitcher but here is Arroyo's career split:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=arroybr01&year=Career&t=p#plato

I doubt even that justifies batting Kotsay 2nd though. Of course, I don't think he should be starting ever, though.

 

[dlk9s]

Kotsay will probably go 2-3 with a BB, 2B, a run, and an RBI now.

[logan82]

Kotsay will probably go 2-3 with a BB, 2B, a run, and an RBI now.

Good if it helps us win.

[Raw Biz]

I don't know if Roenicke ever used a .286 average to justify it....that's something Haudricourt wrote in himself (possibly to try and explain an odd decision) it's not a quote from Roenicke. I'm definitely not agreeing with the move, I just think those words are being put into Roenicke's mouth.

 

Perhaps a better explanation (with a bigger sample size) would be Arroyo's .923 OPS against lefties (.697 v. righties) this season. Again, not agreeing with it...but if Haudricourt uses a stat like that it doesn't look as bad.

I should have said that Roenicke didn't actually say it but he was probably thinking it. He has brought up career numbers against a certain pitcher in the past so I'm sure that's his thinking again here. It's not like Hart needs a day off with the 2 off days we just had.

I also hate using split stats against lefties/righties without mentioning the quality of those players. Would you start Schafer over Braun because Schafer is a lefty and Braun a righty? Of course not. I only think lefty/righty splits like that are useful when you are choosing between guys of similar talent. I'm not a big Hart fan by any means but he's way better than Kotsay at this point.

[fondybrewfan]

This is Kotsay's 1st start in nearly 2 weeks and only his 2nd since August 22nd; I don't have a big issue with it. As shown Arroyo has some pretty big lefty splits this year; if you want to give Kotsay a start every two weeks; today seems like as good of a day as any. Its not like Kotsay could be considered good; but it seems like an OK time to give your back up a start. RR is starting Green which is nice to see; although Taylor seems to have cooled off a bit from his fast start.

 

The offense has sucked lately; while Kotsay is by no means a good player I don't mind RR rolling the dice and trying something different. Not much of a differnece between losing 2-1 with Hart at RF than losing 2-1 with Kotsay in RF. It almost seems predestined that the Crew will score less than 3 runs in a game right now regardless of who is out there.

[Baldkin]

This is Kotsay's 1st start in nearly 2 weeks and only his 2nd since August 22nd; I don't have a big issue with it. As shown Arroyo has some pretty big lefty splits this year; if you want to give Kotsay a start every two weeks; today seems like as good of a day as any. Its not like Kotsay could be considered good; but it seems like an OK time to give your back up a start. RR is starting Green which is nice to see; although Taylor seems to have cooled off a bit from his fast start.

 

The offense has sucked lately; while Kotsay is by no means a good player I don't mind RR rolling the dice and trying something different. Not much of a differnece between losing 2-1 with Hart at RF than losing 2-1 with Kotsay in RF. It almost seems predestined that the Crew will score less than 3 runs in a game right now regardless of who is out there.

There are 7 hitters in the lineup who are better than Kotsay. Yet he hits second. That is my major issue. My minor one is not starting Hart, who's OPS (without getting the platoon advantage all season, unlike Kotsay) is 200 points higher than Kotsays on the season.

[fondybrewfan]

This is Kotsay's 1st start in nearly 2 weeks and only his 2nd since August 22nd; I don't have a big issue with it. As shown Arroyo has some pretty big lefty splits this year; if you want to give Kotsay a start every two weeks; today seems like as good of a day as any. Its not like Kotsay could be considered good; but it seems like an OK time to give your back up a start. RR is starting Green which is nice to see; although Taylor seems to have cooled off a bit from his fast start.

 

The offense has sucked lately; while Kotsay is by no means a good player I don't mind RR rolling the dice and trying something different. Not much of a differnece between losing 2-1 with Hart at RF than losing 2-1 with Kotsay in RF. It almost seems predestined that the Crew will score less than 3 runs in a game right now regardless of who is out there.

There are 7 hitters in the lineup who are better than Kotsay. Yet he hits second. That is my major issue. My minor one is not starting Hart, who's OPS (without getting the platoon advantage all season, unlike Kotsay) is 200 points higher than Kotsays on the season.

You havea point on hitting 2nd althought there isn't exactly an ideal candidate. Lucroy hasn't batted anywhere near the top of the order all year so RR isn't about to try that. The only other option would probably be Green and we all know by now that RR would rather use a veteran in important spots.

 

[BuckyBrewer61]

This is Kotsay's 1st start in nearly 2 weeks and only his 2nd since August 22nd; I don't have a big issue with it. As shown Arroyo has some pretty big lefty splits this year; if you want to give Kotsay a start every two weeks; today seems like as good of a day as any. Its not like Kotsay could be considered good; but it seems like an OK time to give your back up a start. RR is starting Green which is nice to see; although Taylor seems to have cooled off a bit from his fast start.

 

The offense has sucked lately; while Kotsay is by no means a good player I don't mind RR rolling the dice and trying something different. Not much of a differnece between losing 2-1 with Hart at RF than losing 2-1 with Kotsay in RF. It almost seems predestined that the Crew will score less than 3 runs in a game right now regardless of who is out there.

There are 7 hitters in the lineup who are better than Kotsay. Yet he hits second. That is my major issue. My minor one is not starting Hart, who's OPS (without getting the platoon advantage all season, unlike Kotsay) is 200 points higher than Kotsays on the season.

You havea point on hitting 2nd althought there isn't exactly an ideal candidate. Lucroy hasn't batted anywhere near the top of the order all year so RR isn't about to try that. The only other option would probably be Green and we all know by now that RR would rather use a veteran in important spots.

The ideal candidate is anyone who is a better hitter than Kotsay, which would include Weeks, Lucroy, and arguably Green. Ron does not seem to grasp the idea that the best way to score runs is to group your best hitters together, regardless of what type of hitters they are, what position they are playing, or how they have performed in certain positions in the lineup in the past. He instead thinks batting Kotsay 2 or 3 and batting McGehee and Betancourt ahead of anyone not pitching is the best lineup for this team.

Yeah I know I'm over-reacting, but it is mind-boggling to me how someone who thinks this to be true has one of the 32 jobs in America managing a major league baseball team. He obviously has the favor of the players, which in the world of the modern spoiled athlete is saying something and I think is worth something, but to continue to assemble less than optimal lineups while possibly not once the entire season putting the 8 best active players in the lineup together at once is so frustrating. Ok, rant over.

 

[BuckyBrewer61]

http://www.jasonzweig.com/images/eatcrow.jpg

 

 

Although I'm happier to be wrong than he is.

I'll still hold that Roenicke's lineups don't give the Brewers the best chance to win, but that doesn't mean I'm not rooting for the Kotsays, Betancourts, and McGehees to play well. I like them all and would love it if they all got hot in the next two months. I just don't think it's the best strategy to hope for that when odds are more likely than not that they won't.

[Raw Biz]

http://www.jasonzweig.com/images/eatcrow.jpg

 

 

Although I'm happier to be wrong than he is.

I'll still hold that Roenicke's lineups don't give the Brewers the best chance to win, but that doesn't mean I'm not rooting for the Kotsays, Betancourts, and McGehees to play well. I like them all and would love it if they all got hot in the next two months. I just don't think it's the best strategy to hope for that when odds are more likely than not that they won't.

This is how I feel. Yeah it's great that Kotsay hit a HR and had some nice games on the season. But over the course of the whole season, those 3 have been bad more often than not.

[logan82]

I posted this over in the in game thread. Keep in mind Kotsay has declined as a hitter quite a bit over the last half decade.

 

 

Career vs right

Kotsay .338/.408/.746 .326wOBA

Hart .320/.475/.795 .342wOBA

 

How is Kotsay a better option than Hart?

[Polish Falcons]

I posted this over in the in game thread. Keep in mind Kotsay has declined as a hitter quite a bit over the last half decade.

 

 

Career vs right

Kotsay .338/.408/.746 .326wOBA

Hart .320/.475/.795 .342wOBA

 

How is Kotsay a better option than Hart?

You also need to factor in Bronson Arroyo's splits.

Bronson Arroyo

vs LHB: 74 IP, 110 Hits, 23 BB, 57 ER, 22 HR,

vs RHB: 101 IP, 97 Hits, 18 BB, 46 ER, 18 HR

Great lineup by Roenicke with 6 lefties, it's paid off.

[Baldkin]

I officially give up.

 

That is all. 9 of his last 15 ABs: vs the Phillies, and the best pitchers in MLB. 11 PA's in 10 days.

 

My only issue thus far with Green: 0 BB in 30ABs.

[Ennder]

Green has not impressed me even a little bit, McGehee has looked terrible. I'm not going to lose any sleep no matter who gets the starts at 3B. Counsell is probably the best man for the job and that is pretty sad.

[homer]

Green has not impressed me even a little bit,

Too small a sample for anyone to be impressed or disappointed. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't like the way Kotsay is always thrown into these discussions in the same breath as Yuni/Strike3hee. Kotsay, as the 5th OF, has done his job. Of course he'll get an occasional start, and he probably shouldn't hit 2nd. But overall he has done his job as PH better than just about anyone in the NL. In fact, he may be THE best PH in the NL this year.

 

Besides all that, he simply doesn't have the same effect on W/L as starters like Yuni/Casey do. Casey McGehee is the single biggest dissapointment period. At least with yuni, he's doing almost exactly what was expected. Marginal player at best at the bottom of the line-up. Casey was suposed to be counted on to hit 5th and drive in 100. We will never know the answer, but it would have been nice to get Green 100-150 ABs in June-Aug so we would all know (including RR) if he would be an improvement over McGehee or not. Now it's too late.

[Baldkin]

I don't like the way Kotsay is always thrown into these discussions in the same breath as Yuni/Strike3hee. Kotsay, as the 5th OF, has done his job. Of course he'll get an occasional start, and he probably shouldn't hit 2nd. But overall he has done his job as PH better than just about anyone in the NL. In fact, he may be THE best PH in the NL this year.

Kotsay has the 10th most PA on the team, 245, Josh Wilson, OTOH, has 80 PAs. That's where your 5th OF/5th IF should be at. He's been the teams 4th OF all season, and has been put in horrible spots in the lineup almost always when he has played (hitting 2nd, 3rd or 5th way too often). He has a .694 OPS and he is by far the worst defensive OF we have. Yes, he's been fine as a PH (44 PA, .658 OPS... yeah, not the best in the league), the problem is, RR has NOT used him that way.

[1992casey]

Among MLB pinch hitters with 25 or more plate appearances, Kotsay is 10th in batting average, 15th in on base percentage (Counsell ranks 10th), 23rd in slugging percentage (Wilson is 22nd), and 16th in OPS.

 

Of course, the sample sizes are ridiculously small to the point where they don't offer anything useful. A better comparison would be to find the players who've had 25 pinch hit plate appearances and use their full season numbers. I don't know of a quick way to do that.

[Ennder]

To be fair every one of our OF missed time with injuries at some point this year or Kotsay would have fewer AB. I had a lot of issues with his usage early in the season when everyone was healthy for sure though.

[Raw Biz]

To be fair every one of our OF missed time with injuries at some point this year or Kotsay would have fewer AB. I had a lot of issues with his usage early in the season when everyone was healthy for sure though.

But don't most teams have injuries throughout the season? Teams should expect that and therefore should try to get a good 4th OF. Like others, I'm fine with Kotsay as a 25th man type player. The problem is he's been used as a #1 PH and main backup OF (counting Morgan/Gomez as 1 player).

[Thurston Fluff]

I had a lot of issues with his usage early in the season when everyone was healthy for sure though.

 

Couldn't it be possible that usage then both helped Kotsay be capable of pinch hitting as successfully as he has and kept the regulars playing at their peak at this point in the season? I said back then that I think it's a good idea to play bench players often early. It appears to have played out correctly in that we now have a useful pinch hitter and regulars playing as well now as they did early. Playing time decisions can't all be about that immediate game. There has to be some thought put towards how each player can be used to be effective throughout the season. Sometimes that may mean playing someone that gives you less of a chance to win that particular game. I can't see how rotting on the bench early helps that player become more useful as the season wears on. I also can't see how playing regulars all the time until they drop in the field helps win more games over the course of a full season. To me all Ron did early was properly plan ahead.