Impressions of Roenicke so far (part 3)

[thebruce44]

So I take this as an admiration that you weren't actually watching the game since you didn't answer the question and because of how it was so painfully obvious they were going to crash in.

 

Wow. That is an impressive reach. Too bad it's nothing close to the truth. That in a nutshell is what you seem to miss. I didn't address one of your questions and you draw a false conclusion. It's possible that I just missed it or forgot about it or even didn't think it was worthy of a response. You're doing the same thing with regard to judging RRR on that play. You are seeing what you want to see but totally ignoring any factors that do not fit your preconceived notion of what is correct to do there.

Actually it wasn't even my question. And you did address it because you quoted it then skirted around the actual question so I don't think I was reaching at all. As you said to me, I feel as though you're doing the same thing with regard to judging RRR on that play. Something was right in front of you but you are drawing the wrong conclusion and dug your heels in, refusing to give in when nearly everyone in this discussion saw it a different way than you.

[Patrick425]

I really am having a hard time trying to figure out why Weeks did not pinch hit instead of Josh Wilson last night with 2 on and 2 outs in the top of the 7th (I think that was the inning - I was flipping back and forth between the Brewer game and Packer game.). BA and Rock seemed to be on board with the decision, stating that you don't want to put Weeks in that type of situation with his first AB of the DL. Really? Why? Will his confidence be shattered if he does not come through? I can't believe that he would have been a worse alternative than Josh Wilson at that point. This "easing" players into situations really bothers me, especially when you are in a penant race and are on the verge of losing your 3rd straight game. It's not like he's been out for a year. If he's not healthy enough to bat in that situation, then he should not be off the DL.

 

Wilson actually did end up having a fairly good at bat, battling off some pitches, but then he tried to pull a pitch that was low and away and grounded weakly to 3rd.

[monty57]

Okay, now that we've started losing some games and have looked somewhat overmatched by some good teams, let's reassess the situation. Why have we started playing worse recently?

 

1) Our Miracle on Ice, Dream team, once-in-a-lifetime team chemistry was destroyed because Roenicke finally caved and started Taylor Green a couple of times

 

2) We are winning this season because of really good pitching, with an offense that is centered around two future Hall-of-Famers and a couple above average bats. However, we are hamstrung by the fact that when Braun & Fielder get in a bit of a slump (especially when we have an injury to someone like Weeks), we struggle to score runs because of major holes in the lineup.

 

If it is (1) above, then I say ship all rookies out as soon as possible, so the Roenicke team magic can once again return. If it is (2) above, the offense will continue to be touch-and-go as long as we continue to believe that Yuni & McGehee need to play everyday and bat 5-6, Lucroy has to start 80% of the time and replace Kottaras as soon as Wolf's out, and someone like Gamel can't come up because Counsell and Kotsay need to get PAs. This could be alleviated by starting Hairston at SS with Green at 2B, and once Weeks returns split time at 3B between Green & McGehee. Lucroy is good, but he seems to be wearing down. It's okay to give him a day off now & then. Gamel should have been brought up already, but why not admit that our offense could use more punch and bring him up (I assume we could still do that?).

 

Nothing revolutionary, but maybe it's a good time to try maximizing team talent for a while.

[pebadger]

Nice false dichotomy and misrepresentation.

 

Here's an idea: Maybe Carpenter and Hamels are really good. Maybe last night's game turned from a game that could have gone either way with one swing of the bat to a game that was out of reach due to two misplays by the best defensive outfielder on the roster and one bang-bang call at 1st base that went against the Crew. Maybe no matter who the Brewers put in the lineup or in what order they hit them or what saviors people thing they have in the minors they still aren't as good as the Phillies in some sort of objective (and relatively meaningless) sense. Maybe they're going to need to catch lightning in a bottle to beat the Phils in any post-season series. Maybe the Phils will actually find themselves in a bit of a slump eventually.

 

Maybe it is a good idea to create doubt and uncertainty by jettisonning much of what they've done to post what will likely be the best regular season record in franchise history.

 

Or maybe you can take time to continue to integrate the new pieces with the old and slowly build everyone's confidence in changes that are being made (or at least considered). Last I checked there are no elimination games on the schedule until October. Green is getting his time. Gomez is getting re-integrated into the rotation. For whatever reason, spanning multiple managers, Gamel hasn't been seen as an fulfilling any immediate need.

 

The Brewers are already quite close to surpassing the number of wins projected for them for the entire season in early September. Maybe, just maybe, they ARE maximizing the talent that is there.

[DougJones43]

Or maybe you can take time to continue to integrate the new pieces with the old and slowly build everyone's confidence in changes that are being made (or at least considered)...Green is getting his time.

That's kind of what everybody wanted all along, except for it to be done a lot earlier -- like months ago.

 

You seem to be the one changing your position in order to agree with everything Roenicke does. Not long ago, you seemed to be under the impression that giving Green significant playing time would destroy team chemistry. But now you're okay with his integration (which again, is what everybody else has been clamoring for all along and were upset at how the team dragged their feet). Why is it okay now? What changed? You can't possibly think it's okay now just because Green "proved" himself during his first 3 pinch hit appearances.

[Raw Biz]

Nice false dichotomy and misrepresentation.

 

Here's an idea: Maybe Carpenter and Hamels are really good. Maybe last night's game turned from a game that could have gone either way with one swing of the bat to a game that was out of reach due to two misplays by the best defensive outfielder on the roster and one bang-bang call at 1st base that went against the Crew. Maybe no matter who the Brewers put in the lineup or in what order they hit them or what saviors people thing they have in the minors they still aren't as good as the Phillies in some sort of objective (and relatively meaningless) sense. Maybe they're going to need to catch lightning in a bottle to beat the Phils in any post-season series. Maybe the Phils will actually find themselves in a bit of a slump eventually.

 

Maybe it is a good idea to create doubt and uncertainty by jettisonning much of what they've done to post what will likely be the best regular season record in franchise history.

 

Or maybe you can take time to continue to integrate the new pieces with the old and slowly build everyone's confidence in changes that are being made (or at least considered). Last I checked there are no elimination games on the schedule until October. Green is getting his time. Gomez is getting re-integrated into the rotation. For whatever reason, spanning multiple managers, Gamel hasn't been seen as an fulfilling any immediate need.

 

The Brewers are already quite close to surpassing the number of wins projected for them for the entire season in early September. Maybe, just maybe, they ARE maximizing the talent that is there.

I just wanted to re-post what I wrote before:

As has been pointed out, the Brewers record is a little misleading. I don't have the exact numbers but I believe since the all-star break or whenever they started that run, they are only 5-7 or so against teams above .500. They are something like 27-5 against teams under .500. Obviously you have to beat the bad teams but you also have to beat some of the good teams. Managing mistakes probably don't matter as much against the lesser teams but against the good ones, you can't afford them. So I think you need to put your best team on the field against the good teams and make the best in-game decisions, regardless of whether it's something that has worked in the past (i.e. squeeze). I will admit that Roenicke has started to put a better team out there (starting Green) but there are still some improvements that could be made (Yuni and McGehee should be dropped in the order).

Monty isn't saying this just because they lost to the Phillies Howard, Utley, and Rollins were all not playing. Yes it was Narveson pitching but the offense did nothing. But the offense has struggled for awhile now. During that big stretch, the pitching carried the team, not the offense. When you play the Astros, Cubs, etc., you can be carried by great pitching and not much offense. But when you play the good teams (like they will in the playoffs), the offense will need to step it up. And to do so, Green should be in the lineup and Yuni should be replaced with Hairston (once Weeks comes back).

I'm also getting tired of all this surpassing projection stuff. They are on pace to surpass it by what, 2 or 3 games? To me that isn't big enough to say something like they're maximizing talent. If it was something like 10-15 games over their projection, then maybe I could see it. But these projections are exactly that: projections. There's some leeway, they aren't exact. Just because they've won a few more games than projected doesn't mean we should be attributing that to Roenicke or something.

[jmeks23]

I'm just not sure what everyone wants Roenicke to do. There really is not that great of options after Fielder. Hairston has to play 2B at the moment (and hasn't exactly been hitting great anyways) and likely won't even be able to play SS consistently at this point. Who knows. Lucroy has had a significant drop off in plate discipline and power, and even though McGehee has as well, he's batted 5th all of last year and pretty much all of this year now. I don't think switching McGehee and Lucroy would be all that beneficial to be honest. Betancourt basically has to play because your other options are Craig Counsell (barely hitting his weight) and Josh Wilson.

 

Other than Taylor Green, who Roenicke has already played a bit, there's just not that great personnel to replace anyone with. I mean what is everyone's brilliant idea for the 5-8 spots in the lineup? Our bottom half just isn't good, that isn't Roenicke's fault.

[pebadger]

I wanted Green to come up and and get significant playing time a long time ago. Check the Free Taylor Green thread. That ship has sailed. And I never said it would "destroy" team chemistry to play him, or even that chemistry was the end-all and be-all of this team. What I did say, in a long-winded way, is that chemistry matters. If you're going to say that it's a big deal that a player might be worth 2 games in a season, it's hard to argue that the fudge factors in there like chemistry might not also be worth that same amount of games. And I've also posted plenty of criticsm of RR in the various in-game threads and elsewhere.

 

With that in mind, my argument is that as a leader you don't just say:

 

"You know what? We're going to just completely disregard everything we've done in terms of managing personnel with this team at this point in the season and go in a completely different direction. W'ere going to just flat out tell guys they aren't good enough. We're going to revamp the rotation that has worked so far. You know, just to shake things up."

 

Rather, you find a way to do things more slowly, in some sort of rational way that gets people on board with change. The players will be receptive to change that they believe in. You don't impose change on them that they don't beleive in. That is what undermines chemistry, or confidence or beleif or whatever other names you want to give to the intangible psychological stuff that matters over the course of a season. Management builds that belief by giving guys chances within the team structure they have built. They give guys chances they have earned. They use the results of those chances as the basis for their decisionmaking going forward.

 

I find it hard to believe that others find it hard to beleive that a player wants to a) have confidence in his teammates and b) that in a conflict between a known quantity and an unknown quantity, teammates will prefer to rely on teammates that they know.

 

I'm not an RR apologist. He's done plenty I don't agree with. But he's simply not in a spot where he can just disregard the human side of managing real people as well as worrying about some sort of idealized, "objective" assessment of what the numbers say might be a marginally more effective lineup. He has 140+ games of experience with this particular group, plus spring training, finding out who is who and what works and doesn't work. Sure, he'd probably love to have some different options that are clearly better in some spots. I don't see that he has those options, or, at the very least, that these changes that many see as "no brainers" are anywhere close to being so. A big part of that analysis for him absolutely has to include his primary duty of managing *people* in addition to making in-game decisions.

[Baldkin]

I'm just not sure what everyone wants Roenicke to do. There really is not that great of options after Fielder. Hairston has to play 2B at the moment (and hasn't exactly been hitting great anyways) and likely won't even be able to play SS consistently at this point. Who knows. Lucroy has had a significant drop off in plate discipline and power, and even though McGehee has as well, he's batted 5th all of last year and pretty much all of this year now. I don't think switching McGehee and Lucroy would be all that beneficial to be honest. Betancourt basically has to play because your other options are Craig Counsell (barely hitting his weight) and Josh Wilson.

 

Other than Taylor Green, who Roenicke has already played a bit, there's just not that great personnel to replace anyone with. I mean what is everyone's brilliant idea for the 5-8 spots in the lineup? Our bottom half just isn't good, that isn't Roenicke's fault.

1) Green can play 2B.

2) Hairston can play SS.

[monty57]

I mean what is everyone's brilliant idea for the 5-8 spots in the lineup?

 

Hairston has played SS, and I really don't think there's much doubt he would have more range than Yuni. As long as his arm strength is okay, he should be a significant defensive upgrade at SS. This season, he's getting on base at a .340 clip, and for his career .326. In contrast, Yuni's getting on base at a .271 clip, with a career .293 OBP. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to say that Hairston would be an upgrade offensively and defensively over Yuni. He can hit #2 vs lefties and 6-8 vs righties.

 

I mentioned this earlier, but I think Lucroy is being overplayed. It's hard for any catcher to play as much as he is. He's starting 80% of the games, and as soon as Wolf comes out of the game, Roenicke subs Lucroy in for Kottaras. Give the kid a few days off. Kottaras is prefectly capable of getting a few more starts and finishing off the games he starts. My guess is that Lucroy would be better if better rested, and Kottaras would be better if he gets more reps.

 

Obviously the biggest jolt will come when Weeks is back. Until then, I'd put Hairston at SS with Green at 2B and McGehee at 3B. Once Weeks is back, I'd have Green & McGehee share time at 3B. We've got some really talented players, so getting rid of the offensive black hole that is Yuni B will do wonders. He's never been good, and probably never will be. McGehee at least has some hope of rebounding, so I wouldn't bench him unless Green continues to outhit him. For now, I'd do a soft platoon.

 

We have a good team, and are playing well, so I hate to nitpick, but anything we do to make ourselves a little better should be done. When the only arguement to defend Yuni is that maybe he's a key to the team chemistry, then I think it's time to go with Plan B. We didn't have a plan B until Melvin traded for Hairston, but now that we have him and Green on the roster, lets get Yuni out of there. Once Weeks is back, let's limit Casey's reps as well.

[MJLiverock]

I've said it before but I'll say it again since the Hairston should be the starter at SS keeps coming up. I really question if he is considered a SS anymore. I'm not saying he can't play it but this idea that he can just slide in and play SS at this point like it is a video game leaves me questioning it.

 

He has only played 1 inning of SS this year.

 

2010 started 53 games at SS, played 489 innings

2009 started 27 games at SS, played 245 innings

2008 started 31 games at Ss, played 271 innings

3 yrs prior to 2008 played 18 innings of SS

 

A full season of playing defense would be over 1300 innings. Two out of 3 of those years he had negative value as a defender, small sample sure but nothing to suggest he would be good. On top of his limited playing time there, it was all over a year ago, and limited to part time then, on top of being another year older at 35. Could he play SS? It is possible, but it isn't some slam dunk no brainer that he should suddenly be thrust into the starting SS role for the playoffs having not played there at all this year, not much in in his career, not having good results playing there, being a year older.

[Raw Biz]

I've said it before but I'll say it again since the Hairston should be the starter at SS keeps coming up. I really question if he is considered a SS anymore. I'm not saying he can't play it but this idea that he can just slide in and play SS at this point like it is a video game leaves me questioning it.

 

He has only played 1 inning of SS this year.

 

2010 started 53 games at SS, played 489 innings

2009 started 27 games at SS, played 245 innings

2008 started 31 games at Ss, played 271 innings

3 yrs prior to 2008 played 18 innings of SS

 

A full season of playing defense would be over 1300 innings. Two out of 3 of those years he had negative value as a defender, small sample sure but nothing to suggest he would be good. On top of his limited playing time there, it was all over a year ago, and limited to part time then, on top of being another year older at 35. Could he play SS? It is possible, but it isn't some slam dunk no brainer that he should suddenly be thrust into the starting SS role for the playoffs having not played there at all this year, not much in in his career, not having good results playing there, being a year older.

I think the reason people want him to play SS is not because he would be good (or even average) but that he would be better than our current SS, who is arguably the worst in all of baseball. Not to mention the upgrade he would bring offensively (at least in OBP, which this team needs).

[thebruce44]

I've said it before but I'll say it again since the Hairston should be the starter at SS keeps coming up. I really question if he is considered a SS anymore.

Is Yunni considered a SS anymore either because thats the only measuring stick that matters at this point.

[TooLiveBrew]

“[Weeks] hasn’t seen any live pitching,” Roenicke explained. “He hasn’t seen anyone throw hard. I told him I didn’t want to put him in a situation where it’s really crucial.”

 

Yeah, wouldn't want Weeks to have to face a good pitcher when you have the perfectly competent Josh Wilson instead. I want to like Roenicke, I really do. But he's just so indefensible.

[Bombers]

My frustration with Ron is:

He says "we don't need a lefty reliever because k-rod and ax wouldn't be pulled in favor of a loogy so why have one?" However he completely contradicts that when he doesn't start plush, green, or jhj because of the lefty/righty matchup. If it is true that a good pitcher will get a hitter out regardless of what side of the plate he is on; then it should work on the flip side and a good hitter shouldn't be "benched" in favor of a split. Additionally he contradicts himself even further by always playing the split (except in some spots like today's game) when Braun doubles, IBB walk to prince and then lets mcgehee and yuni both bat vs a RHP, with plush and green watching from the dugout. I just don't get it. When will he just play our best players?

 

Remember Sept 15, 2008. Yost blew 4 games to the phills and was canned. If Ron goes 4-9 with a final 4 game sweep (AGAIN!!!) at the hands of the phills, does he deserve the same fate?

[young guns]

Provus mentioned on the radio while Prince was getting walked for the second time for Casey that RR said something to the effect that a .250 hitter that has the player in front of him intentionally walked, becomes a .270 hitter at that point. I didn't catch the context as to if they were refering to why Casey would not be pinch hit for or if its why he doesn't like intentionally walking hitters. Both probably though.

[Never Outhustled]

Somebody needs to explain to RR that bunting prevents runs. The math is simple to understand. RR is killing our offense.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Provus mentioned on the radio while Prince was getting walked for the second time for Casey that RR said something to the effect that a .250 hitter that has the player in front of him intentionally walked, becomes a .270 hitter at that point. I didn't catch the context as to if they were refering to why Casey would not be pinch hit for or if its why he doesn't like intentionally walking hitters. Both probably though.

I call ABSOLUTE shenanigans on that one. I'd like to see some data to back up such a claim.

[greeg35]

Based on today's lineup, rr thinks betancourt gives us a better chance to win than hairston. He' s wrong. Again. The rest of the lineup looks like the best one we've had all year; which only makes me more angry that it took so long to call green up.

[Funketown]

I call ABSOLUTE shenanigans on that one. I'd like to see some data to back up such a claim.

From a statistical standpoint, if a significant amount of these walks come in situations with <2 outs and a runner on third, the intentional walks could distort the batting average upwards, as flyouts/groundouts are scored as 0/0 rather than 0/1. I doubt that could account for more than 10 points of BA though.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Based on today's lineup, rr thinks betancourt gives us a better chance to win than hairston. He' s wrong. Again. The rest of the lineup looks like the best one we've had all year; which only makes me more angry that it took so long to call green up.

Not necessarily. Hairston will likely replace Weeks half way through the game. I think he'll get time at SS once Weeks is playing all 9 innings.

[igor67]

I haven't seen anybody write on it recently, but the general trend was that batters gain about 20 points of batting average with a runner on first. Presumably do to suboptimal fielding position. I don't know what effect it has on SLG or OBP, but the batting average affect is real, such as it is.

[1992casey]

Not necessarily. Hairston will likely replace Weeks half way through the game. I think he'll get time at SS once Weeks is playing all 9 innings.

There's nothing wrong with letting Hairston play the whole game and moving him to 2B if Yuni is brought in. Of course, Wilson and Counsell are options to replace Rickie too.

[brettac1]

The plan is to bring McGehee in and move Green over today.

[logan82]

I haven't seen anybody write on it recently, but the general trend was that batters gain about 20 points of batting average with a runner on first. Presumably do to suboptimal fielding position. I don't know what effect it has on SLG or OBP, but the batting average affect is real, such as it is.

That could be very misleading in the case of IBB though. Usually when a guy is on 1B they either walked, got a hit or were HBP. That would be an indication of a batter tiring or losing control. That may not be the case when a batter is IBB.