Impressions of Roenicke so far (part 3)

[SconnieKid]

This is what I have been saying too. They not only have to make up the 5-6 wins Prince gave them but also the 5 wins they "overachieved". Plugging in a few rookies isn't going to get that done. I think next year is the Brewers best shot at the postseason in the foreseeable future. They don't need to sign Prince or Reyes, but they do need to bring in some big pieces.

[Ennder]

This is what I have been saying too. They not only have to make up the 5-6 wins Prince gave them but also the 5 wins they "overachieved". Plugging in a few rookies isn't going to get that done. I think next year is the Brewers best shot at the postseason in the foreseeable future. They don't need to sign Prince or Reyes, but they do need to bring in some big pieces.

The Brewers are not going to build a 96 win team. They have to shoot for a 90 win roster and hope they catch a couple breaks, that is what most teams have to do. So I'd disagree on the part about replacing the 5 wins they overachieved. I think it is probably doable if they sign the right players but it won't be easy and there won't be much safety net.

[SconnieKid]

Exactly. There isn't a ton of room with player salary. There are quite a few holes considering they won 96 games. I saw the Brewers win the division by 6 games and thought, hey losing Fielder and his 5.5WAR isn't the end of the world. But when you see that the Cards a different team next year (with Wainwright back, and a full season of bullpen that cost them ~11 games more than ours did) they are already behind the 8-ball. The idea that we have the answers already doesn't ring true to me. Especially when we don't have a ton of wiggle room.

[endaround]

And then when the Cards lose Pujols?

[Ennder]

Carpenter is in decline and there is no way to know what kind of pitcher Wainwright will be next year coming off of a season lost to injury. They also got the top end of expectations out of a number of players on their roster (especially Berkman). I also wouldn't just assume the Cardinals are a 90 win team next year.

 

We have the core roster of a team that can make the playoffs even without Fielder, we just need to add the right pieces and not have players fall off the map like McGehee did this year and Hart did a couple years ago and maybe have a young guy step up which we really didn't have at all this year (to be fair not many were given a chance). I don't think it is as bleak as some want to make it out to be but we certainly aren't division favorites either without some good moves.

[Thurston Fluff]

Good job of cherry picking one sentence and ignoring the larger point I was making. They got lucky this year, if you really believe that is some sort of "Magical Skill" RRR has, I expect it to be duplicated for as long as he is a manager.

 

It was two sentences that made up a whole paragraph. Usually a paragraph is an entire thought thus I addressed it as such. The rest of that post was dedicated to defending Macha on pulling players sooner and such which had nothing to do with projected vs actual wins. My point is you assigned the difference between expected and actual wins to luck. That ignores a whole lot of other possibilities. Like he actually did something that helped the whole exceed it's parts. Maybe even that the order of traits that are important to the team's productivity might not be what you thought. It might just be communication skills are far more valuable to wins than choosing who pitches in the 7th or who pinch hits or who plays center.

 

Also to say it's a magical skill insinuates that, like magic, it is non existent. I would say the skill Ron has that Macha doesn't is people skills. What you call magic I call communication. Little things like telling the player the day before when he is sitting or playing or giving the pen defined roles then giving them enough time to show if they can handle such a role. You may disagree that those are important which is fine. But please at least give some thought to other possibilities instead of just writing them off because they don't fit your view.

 

As far as the -he should be able to repeat that exceeding of projections- part I don't get the point you are trying to make. It seems like you are saying since he might not succeed to this level sometime in the future it's wrong to think what he did this season was ability based. That makes no sense to me at all. Shouldn't you wait to see if he does fail before writing it off as wrong or pure luck?

 

But when you see that the Cards a different team next year (with Wainwright back, and a full season of bullpen that cost them ~11 games more than ours did) they are already behind the 8-ball.

 

Maybe we should wait until at least after the free agency period starts before we assume St Louis will have a better team than they do now and we will have a worse one. Last I checked they have a first baseman and shortstop in the same situation as we do.

[jjfanec]

This is what I have been saying too. They not only have to make up the 5-6 wins Prince gave them but also the 5 wins they "overachieved". Plugging in a few rookies isn't going to get that done. I think next year is the Brewers best shot at the postseason in the foreseeable future. They don't need to sign Prince or Reyes, but they do need to bring in some big pieces.

I guess I dont see a ton of guys who overachieved on this team. The only really way of saying they overachieved is that they didnt sustain big pitching injuries - although I would argue Greinke's injury cost him a good 1/4 of a season since he didnt get spring training really. Where did we overachieve?

 

LF - Braun is just that good. Maybe he could regress a bit

CF - I could see this although having to play Morgan against lefties because Gomez got hurt, hurt us a lot

RF - Maybe a little but not much

3B- Definitely not. This was a huge under-achieving spot

SS - Nope

2B - Not with Weeks injury

1B - Nope

C - Nope

 

SP - Wolf yes, maybe Narveson but no one else overachieved

BP - Lots of injuries and guys did what they were supposed. Axford may regress a bit and we are not sure who we lose

 

Bench - No one overachieved here.

 

This team can stay close to maintaining 90 win potential without huge name acquisitions. 3B and SS will be huge improvements if we get average players.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think he meant the team overachieved as a whole not individuals. Some may call that luck and that may be the case but I'm not as sure about that. It might also be the players were used in a way that allowed them to contribute more to the whole. Or it could be the players are simply better than we expected.

[SconnieKid]

But when you see that the Cards a different team next year (with Wainwright back, and a full season of bullpen that cost them ~11 games more than ours did) they are already behind the 8-ball.

 

Maybe we should wait until at least after the free agency period starts before we assume St Louis will have a better team than they do now and we will have a worse one. Last I checked they have a first baseman and shortstop in the same situation as we do.

Well we are anxious fans. I want next year to resemble this year only with a nicer ending. I expect the Cards to keep Pujols and frankly it doesn't matter if they keep Furcal as he did very little for them this year (great in the field, terrible with the bat-against anyone outside of the Brewers). His WAR was less than Theriot's.

 

The Brewers were at least co-favorites this year according to everything I saw. I am hoping to be in a similar position by the time spring training starts.

 

 

[Baldkin]

Also to say it's a magical skill insinuates that, like magic, it is non existent. I would say the skill Ron has that Macha doesn't is people skills. What you call magic I call communication. Little things like telling the player the day before when he is sitting or playing or giving the pen defined roles then giving them enough time to show if they can handle such a role. You may disagree that those are important which is fine. But please at least give some thought to other possibilities instead of just writing them off because they don't fit your view.

Saying they got lucky isn't writing off other possibilities, it is stating what I believe. How can you arbitrarily assign it to Ron's people skills? Then shouldn't every single manager with above average people skills outperform their teams run-performance on the season? Or, it just happened to Ron because he was perfect in the perfect situation in the perfect season?

[RockCoCougars]

If you think the bullpen will repeat their performance again, I think you are going to be disappointed. Yes, Loe was brutal early in the season, but take a look at the stats of the others.

[Thurston Fluff]

How can you arbitrarily assign it to Ron's people skills?

 

The same way you arbitrarily assigned it to luck I guess. Seriously though I think so because every indication is Ron was better than Macha at communicating. All the players I ever heard talk about it say that it is an important asset and Ron is better at it than Macha. Then Ron went out and did better vs projections than Macha did. When combining results vs projections and the importance players say it has I think there is at least some evidence to back up my belief. Perhaps now you can explain to me why you just wrote it off as luck. Maybe even add why your approach is better with as much evidence as I provided.

 

Then shouldn't every single manager with above average people skills outperform their teams run-performance on the season?

 

Run performance not necessarily. Overall team play I would think so yes. You seem to be suggesting that isn't the case but why do you suggest such? If you know it isn't true show me why.

 

Or, it just happened to Ron because he was perfect in the perfect situation in the perfect season?

 

This would be that magic you keep speaking of. I don't believe in magic. I believe Ron is a good communicator and communication in the number one asset a manager needs to be successful over time. I believe it is more important than game time moves or who plays were. That is simply my belief. It was based on what people in the game say as well as anecdotal evidence from life experiences in general and watching baseball since the early 80's in specific. That my belief also fits how the season panned out only reenforces that maybe I am not off base. I don't think that makes players better than they physically are capable of be mind you. That would be magic. Only that it helps them to relax and play their best longer.

 

How about we meet half way. Lets accept maybe there are many ways to run a team. Maybe there isn't a superior way every manager can follow and be better than any other approach. I think every manager has to use his specific skill set to his advantage. So it may be the case that some mangers would be better suited to manage like Macha did while others would not. I am perfectly willing to accept Macha got his team to meet expectations. I also think the way he did it was best for him. Had he tried to act like Ron he would have been phoney and that would have hurt more than it helped IMHO. I just think you should accept Ron did as well if not better by following another route.

[The Truth]

I think there are ways that Melvin can help Ron Roenicke next season: don't give him a Mark Kotsay type that Roenicke could be tempted to play in CF. Make sure only Gomez, Morgan , and Schaefer are CF possibilities. Give him back end of the bullpen pitchers so he's never tempted to use Loe in the 7th 8th or 9th (or even better get rid of Loe!). Get him someone other than Betancourt to play SS. Don't start out the season with a Wil Nieves type as your backup Catcher

 

There is alot to like, in my opinion, about Roenicke, but hopefully Melvin will learn from a few of Roenicke's weaknesses and stock the team accordingly

 

My fear remains that Melvin doesn't think Betancourt is "that bad", doesn't see the big deal of starting Kotsay in CF, thinks highly of the Wil Nieves types, doesn't realize Loe should never pitch to lefties etc etc

[SconnieKid]

This is what I have been saying too. They not only have to make up the 5-6 wins Prince gave them but also the 5 wins they "overachieved". Plugging in a few rookies isn't going to get that done. I think next year is the Brewers best shot at the postseason in the foreseeable future. They don't need to sign Prince or Reyes, but they do need to bring in some big pieces.

I guess I dont see a ton of guys who overachieved on this team. The only really way of saying they overachieved is that they didnt sustain big pitching injuries - although I would argue Greinke's injury cost him a good 1/4 of a season since he didnt get spring training really. Where did we overachieve?

 

LF - Braun is just that good. Maybe he could regress a bit

CF - I could see this although having to play Morgan against lefties because Gomez got hurt, hurt us a lot

RF - Maybe a little but not much

3B- Definitely not. This was a huge under-achieving spot

SS - Nope

2B - Not with Weeks injury

1B - Nope

C - Nope

 

SP - Wolf yes, maybe Narveson but no one else overachieved

BP - Lots of injuries and guys did what they were supposed. Axford may regress a bit and we are not sure who we lose

 

Bench - No one overachieved here.

 

This team can stay close to maintaining 90 win potential without huge name acquisitions. 3B and SS will be huge improvements if we get average players.

The "overachieved" was nerdspeak for given how well everyone played they should have won ~90-92 games. There are several models for "how many wins the team should have given their offensive and pitching output". All of them had us winning significantly fewer games. There were only a few teams that outperformed their play by that many wins.

 

[The Truth]

I think if the Brewers had started the season with K-Rod and Hairston and if in April we had known they'd only need 6 starting pitchers the whole year, many might have predicted 95-96 wins. I think the main reason they exceeded expectations was great overall health of the pitching staff and picking up K-Rod and Hairston. I predicted them to win 89

[Nottso]

Don't start out the season with a Wil Nieves type as your backup Catcher

I would like to think that Lucroy has now shown enough so that RR wouldn't even entertain the thought of needing a gritty, battling, veteran backup to mentor the kid or bail him out of a tough situation.

[Polish Falcons]

If you think the bullpen will repeat their performance again, I think you are going to be disappointed. Yes, Loe was brutal early in the season, but take a look at the stats of the others.

 

 

I don't know. The brewers bullpen blew 19 leads this year which is around the league average. Part of that is a function of more opportunities, but I would not be surprised if the bullpen maintains a similar level over the coarse of the entire season compared to all of 2011.

[Ennder]

They had the 6th best bullpen in baseball by ERA and WAR and the 3rd best by xFIP. It probably isn't that likely that they can repeat that. It might not fall off all that far but they'll probably lose at least 1 WAR from the bullpen.