Impressions of Roenicke so far (part 3)

[The Truth]

Roenicke drives me crazy sometimes but the guy has us within 2 wins of a World Series so I just plain gotta respect him...

[bullox]

Roenicke drives me crazy sometimes but the guy has us within 2 wins of a World Series so I just plain gotta respect him...

http://i.imgur.com/p6Bww.jpg

[1992casey]

Putting Kotsay in CF is the only postseason decision that has really freaked me out. Batting Kotsay 2nd isn't good, but when you think about it, once Mark's in the lineup, there's no good place to put him.

[And That]

A person hands you a 6 shooter with 5 bullets and says they will give you $10 for playing Russian Roulette. You say "deal!", give the cylinder a spin and pull the trigger. Nothing happens and the man hands you $10.

You would say that the results proved that it was a good choice. I would say it was just about the worst decision a human being could make.

 

I care about results

Not for long, you wouldn't.

[BrewerTerp]

i will give credit to RRR. he pushed the right button with hairston.

[TheCrew]

Not for long, you wouldn't.

Hey, I'm not saying I agree with the decision nor that I would make the same decision - but when a manager makes a move that looks bad, and the guy produces at the plate....... call it a dumb decision all you want, but you still have to say it was a successful dumb decision.

[Invader3K]

i will give credit to RRR. he pushed the right button with hairston.

Yeah, the fact that McGehee hasn't gotten a single post-season start really has helped my opinion of Roenicke.

[mkm13]

i will give credit to RRR. he pushed the right button with hairston.

That button should have been pushed much sooner.

 

 

[Ennder]

Not for long, you wouldn't.

Hey, I'm not saying I agree with the decision nor that I would make the same decision - but when a manager makes a move that looks bad, and the guy produces at the plate....... call it a dumb decision all you want, but you still have to say it was a successful dumb decision.

Sure, but this is a terrible way to look at things. If a manager puts you in a situation where his player succeeds 15% of the time but another player would have succeeded 25% of the time it is a bad move. 15% of the time it will still work out, 75% of the time it wouldn't have even mattered but 10% of the time he made a mistake that cost you the game. Eventually that 10% is going to bite you in the butt.

[mkm13]

Results > Predictions

 

Does anyone really think that with Plush in over Kotsay the Brewers win game 3?

I believe because Kotsay did not make the play a normal centerfielder would have (including Nyjer), we let up 3 extra runs. His offense gave us 1 extra run. Who knows if Nyjer would have given us any offensive production if he was in the game...but even if he didn't..I do believe if Nyjer was in we would have only let up 1 run in that game (that is obviously assuming our pitchers pitch just as good after the 1st inning).

 

He didn't specifically win or lose the game for us as the game could have ended differently if we had a major league caliber outfield in there, but Kotsay had a significantly negative impact on the result of the game.

 

 

[rluzinski]

A person hands you a 6 shooter with 5 bullets and says they will give you $10 for playing Russian Roulette. You say "deal!", give the cylinder a spin and pull the trigger. Nothing happens and the man hands you $10.

You would say that the results proved that it was a good choice. I would say it was just about the worst decision a human being could make.

 

I care about results

There you go.

[FVBrewerFan]

So, someone had to start this. What are your thoughts on RR's moves (or lack thereof) in the 6th inning of Game 4? It's fascinating to me that RR even admitted in the post-game press conf that he doesn't even know why he made the decision to stick with Kottaras/Wolf/Morgan. He stumbled through the options he had, and how TLR would respond. But he came right out and said he doesn't know why he didn't use a PH.

[Ennder]

I think he made the wrong move, he managed it like the regular season and not the playoffs. I think the fact Wolf went on and pitched 2 more innings helped him save some face though. It isn't a completely boneheaded move or anything but I do think it was the wrong one.

[SconnieKid]

I don't really want this to turn into a RR blast thread but I would love to hear some thoughtful analysis of some of the situations that came up last night and may come up again in the future.

 

Up 1 with runners on second and third TLR brings in LOOGY specialist Arthur Rhodes to face a string of 4 straight lefties (Kottaras, Wolf, Morgan, Kotsay). All of these guys are platoon players who have had almost no success hitting lefties. The Brewers elected to let the chips fall where they may and let the string play out. In my estimation they got about the best possible result by getting one run home. It all happened pretty quickly. In retrospect I really think bringing in Hart/McGehee/whoever to hit for George (which would necessitate bringing in another PH for Wolf the next AB) would have been preferable. Saito was warmed in the pen anyways and RR had Wolf on a short rope after than anyway so why not play for an extra run or two? That would have wasted Rhodes and TLR probably would have brought in a hard throwing R. On the other hand, if Hart and McGehee strike out/ground out you have taken your pitcher out and are only up 1 having given your opponent all the momentum. I at least would have PH for Morgan as he was lost against Rhodes and giving up an AB with runners on 2nd and 3rd when you are set to make defensive adjustments anyways seemed the wrong choice.

 

Also, after Kottaras got the last out and they pulled him and Wolf I was TICKED that Lucroy started off the next inning. Why would you pull a double switch there? You have the same team on the field and you either have Lucroy up or any PH for Wolf. Would you rather have Luc start off an inning or Hart/Green/McGehee, hell even Yo?

[Glennron]

I didn't mind not PH'ing Hart for Morgan as much there because you want him and Gomez in the outfield at the end of the game, but letting Kottaras and Wolf bat was a curious decision. I'd have to assume it was an all or nothing thing, since Wolf HAS to have Kottaras as his catcher.

[Ennder]

On top of everything else Kotteras has one of the highest K rates on the team so is one of the more likely players to not get that runner in from 3rd.

[Oxy]

I was one of the few who was in favor of leaving Wolf in there to hit in the 6th. I don't want to use Hawkins and Saito on back-to-back days unless necessary AND if there is an off day the next day. Now Roenicke has his entire bullpen well rested and at his disposal for every game remaining in the series. Wolf was pitching well so why make the move? He is also an excellent bunter and decent contact hitter, so leaving him in to hit with a guy on third and 1 out isn't a big deal either.

Say you use both Hawkins and Saito and then lose the game. Now you go into an elimination game with a shaky Greinke and a tired bullpen. Not ideal.

[dlk9s]

I think the decision was simply that RR wanted Wolf to pitch another inning or two because a) he was pitching very well, and b) it would help save Saito and Hawkins, who had pitched Wednesday, especially when there is another game Friday. I can totally see why people were upset about it, but I was cool with the decision, since the Brewers were winning. If they absolutely NEEDED another run or two, then yeah, I start pinch hitting like crazy there.

[Oxy]

I responded in the RR thread already, but I liked the move--or non-move. I don't want to pitch Hawk and Saito on back-to-back days with another game the following day that might be an elimination game. If necessary, sure, but Wolf was throwing great, his pitch count wasn't high, and the Brewers had the lead.

 

I would have been nice if he could have pinch hit Lucroy for Kottaras, but for some reason that is all but impossible to do that and leave Wolf in the game.

 

Now everyone in the bullpen will be available and well rested for the remainder of the series.

[Team Canada]

Someone started discussion of this in the Roenicke thread, so to prevent it going on in two places I'm merging the "Strategic Analysis of Unique Situations" in there..

[Thurston Fluff]

Maybe somebody can help me here. Is there someplace I can look that shows me X amount of plays in the field made over the other guy adds Y amount to the win probability? Where is the evidence that shows a superior defender gives a team a better chance to win than a superior offensive player? There must be some sort of cutoff line when defense overtakes offense. It seems like criticizing someone for choosing offense over defense should come with some tangible evidence that shows it was wrong. Quite frankly the reverse is true as well which is why I won't judge until I know more. Specifically in this situation does GoGo's defense outweigh his career 244/293/339 against right handers? For comparison's sake Kotsay is 280/338/415 against right handers. Do those numbers represent a sizable enough of a gap to offset the defense? I've seen people say it does and some who say it doesn't but I haven't seen a lot of tangible evidence to show one way or the other. Or I just missed it. Given the number of pages that is very possible.

 

If someone on this board has some type of study that shows how may plays a particular defender has to make above a superior offensive player in order to make up for his sub-par offense I'd love to see it. Then I might be able to make an informed assessment of the Kotsay decision.

[SconnieKid]

So, someone had to start this. What are your thoughts on RR's moves (or lack thereof) in the 6th inning of Game 4? It's fascinating to me that RR even admitted in the post-game press conf that he doesn't even know why he made the decision to stick with Kottaras/Wolf/Morgan. He stumbled through the options he had, and how TLR would respond. But he came right out and said he doesn't know why he didn't use a PH.

I created a thread about it because it was such a peculiar situation. In the end I think the path he took was the one of least resistance which was my biggest problem. I just hate that there weren't guys in the dugout waiting to pinch hit in that situation. It came up on him and he didn't know how to react so he didn't. It doesn't fill you with confidence when difficult decisions are out there to be made.

 

[Oxy]

Maybe somebody can help me here. Is there someplace I can look that shows me X amount of plays in the field made over the other guy adds Y amount to the win probability?

 

If someone on this board has some type of study that shows how may plays a particular defender has to make above a superior offensive player in order to make up for his sub-par offense I'd love to see it. Then I might be able to make an informed assessment of the Kotsay decision.

You aren't going to find what you want, since defensive metrics aren't nearly precise enough to determine something like win probability. This is a case where statistics aren't really of much use since it is a one game scenario with a very interesting pitching matchup of YoGa vs. Carpenter. With FieldFx data it might be easier to predict the odds on how many outs per game a Gomez or Morgan in CF would save vs. Kotsay, but I wouldn't trust anything that is out there right now. Common sense tells me that Gallardo is a fly ball pitcher, so put your best defenders in the OF, at least when your worst OF (Kotsay) is far, far, far inferior to your alternatives.

[endaround]

Since Kotsay isn't a better offensive player than Gomez there isn't anything to really discuss.

[Oxy]

Since Kotsay isn't a better offensive player than Gomez there isn't anything to really discuss.

Against Jaime Garcia you might be close to right. Against Chris Carpenter you aren't even close to right.