Yuniesky Betancourt: What value does he bring to the team? (part 2)

[rluzinski]

If you are going to use one hitting stat, wOBA is probably one of the best. It is a little better than OPS and miles better than BA.

I would say that it is miles better than OPS. wOBA is very roughly proportional to 1.7OBP x SLG, so you can see how bad OPS undervalues OBP.

[logan82]

If you are going to use one hitting stat, wOBA is probably one of the best. It is a little better than OPS and miles better than BA.

I would say that it is miles better than OPS. wOBA is very roughly proportional to 1.7OBP x SLG, so you can see how bad OPS undervalues OBP.

True but OBP and SLG generally fall in a certain range so you will not find to many players that will rank differently in OPS and wOBA. Generally a player with a better OPS will have a better wOBA. In most cases people are not concerned with how much better, just better. I go with wOBA because it is simple but in most cases people are afraid of OPS let alone a more advanced stat like wOBA so OPS works well enough. I am not concerned with 95% accuracy vs 97% accuracy unless the situation calls for it. Besides, it is hard enough to get some people to look beyond BA/RBI/HR/FLG% let alone using an advanced stat like wOBA.

[Ennder]

Generally a player with a better OPS will have a better wOBA.

 

There is a pretty large gap between the two in general but most players tend to be mediocre in both stats so OPS isn't horrible by itself in a lot of cases. You just have to realize that OPS overvalues guys like Betancourt and undervalues high OBP low SLG type guys (which are rare of course).

[endaround]

The reason I used wOBA here is because Punto and Betancourt have such different skill sets that looking at slash lines say very little. Punto gets on base at an OK rate but has no power. Betancourt doesn't get on base but has decent power. To get any balance you have to look at some weighted numbers. The whole point is that the offensive difference between Punto and Betnacourt is squat. Neitehr is good but Punto is a great defender while if he could hit at asll Betancourt wouldn't be at short. Fans rate Punto at 4 out of 5 with Betancourt getting a 2.5.

[strawbossisevil]

But Punto is in his mid-30s and unlikely to be able to start everyday at SS. Continuing all this either/or stuff with Punto is bordering on ridiculous. Punto is probably a guy who could start at SS three times a week at this point while remaining effective. We needed someone who would be capable of starting everyday, or nearly everyday.

 

Punto would have been a better option than Counsel, but by the time the Greinke trade happened we had already signed Craig.

 

Punto has spent a limited amount of time playing SS throughout his career. Asking him to be a starting SS for the first time when he is in his mid-30s is asking for trouble.

 

All this Punto talk isn't being honest, he isn't someone you bring in to be your everyday SS, he's a bench player or a platoon partner (simply because of his age and experience at the position). And unfortunately, we already had our bench player/platoon partner in Craig at the time of the trade.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Punto has never been a full time anything. He's got 2155 innings at 3rd base, and 2041 at SS, and 1980 at 2B. So if he IS qualified to play everyday (questionable) I don't think it's outrageous to say that he could play SS everyday. He's played just 114 more innings at 3rd base than at SS, and his fielding numbers (always taken with a grain of salt) along with fan and scouting reports make me believe that he would be, at bare minimum, adequate for 120 games or so at SS for a full season.

 

Now Punto was not my first, second, or even third choice, but I would take him (when healthy) over Betancourt any day of the week.

 

This is all moot, as Punto's not a Brewer, and not healthy, but to suggest he's not capable of playing SS full time is just not true.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This is all moot, as Punto's not a Brewer, and not healthy, but to suggest he's not capable of playing SS full time is just not true.

 

Well, he's not capable right now because he's injured - something he likes to be over the past few years, which is why he would have been just as bad an option to play SS everyday for the Brewers going into the season as Betancourt was.

 

So, actually suggesting he IS capable of playing SS full time right now is just not true. That's based in present day reality, not on historical statistical intervals that don't account for the time Punto can't be on the field due to injury.

[DuWayne Steurer]

This is all moot, as Punto's not a Brewer, and not healthy, but to suggest he's not capable of playing SS full time is just not true.

 

Well, he's not capable right now because he's injured - something he likes to be over the past few years, which is why he would have been just as bad an option to play SS everyday for the Brewers going into the season as Betancourt was.

 

So, actually suggesting he IS capable of playing SS full time right now is just not true. That's based in present day reality, not on historical statistical intervals that don't account for the time Punto can't be on the field due to injury.

I realize this is splitting hairs, but I think you can read between the lines and see in my post where I said 'he's not healthy'. I guess I needed to say "IF HEALTHY, Punto would be an ok choice for SS everyday?

 

I realize that's a little bit of context, but it's all right there and I thought, quite easy to read.

[RockCoCougars]

I realize this is splitting hairs, but I think you can read between the lines and see in my post where I said 'he's not healthy'. I guess I needed to say "IF HEALTHY, Punto would be an ok choice for SS everyday?

 

I realize that's a little bit of context, but it's all right there and I thought, quite easy to read.

That's exactly my point. Frankly, no one will convince me that Punto isn't horrible and worse than Betancourt- we all can agree to disagree on that. As for the second guessers, I don't get it- If Punto had played in every game at shortstop with solid defense and was hitting over .300, I could see the 20/20 hindsight. In reality, he can't stay healthy and has played one game at shortstop, so this argument makes no sense. In the end, Alcides has been horrible at the plate this year. Had the Greinke trade not been made, he would have been 'penned in' as the starter. No matter how much you hate Betancourt, it would be tough to argue that he's not at least been a push with 2011 Escobar.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I realize this is splitting hairs, but I think you can read between the lines and see in my post where I said 'he's not healthy'. I guess I needed to say "IF HEALTHY, Punto would be an ok choice for SS everyday?

 

I realize that's a little bit of context, but it's all right there and I thought, quite easy to read.

That's exactly my point. Frankly, no one will convince me that Punto isn't horrible and worse than Betancourt- we all can agree to disagree on that. As for the second guessers, I don't get it- If Punto had played in every game at shortstop with solid defense and was hitting over .300, I could see the 20/20 hindsight. In reality, he can't stay healthy and has played one game at shortstop, so this argument makes no sense. In the end, Alcides has been horrible at the plate this year. Had the Greinke trade not been made, he would have been 'penned in' as the starter. No matter how much you hate Betancourt, it would be tough to argue that he's not at least been a push with 2011 Escobar.

I agree with the bolded part. THIS YEAR, yes, it's very debatable which one helps a team more. Going forward, I think more people would want Escobar, simply because he has a ceiling that he hasn't (and admittedly may not) reach. He could get better. He may not, but he could. Betancourt is at an age where you can look at his very best seasons, and see that those are clearly in the rearview mirror at this point.

 

But again, I digress, both of them have more or less completely sucked this year, and it's a coin toss to which one you'd rather have I guess.

[RockCoCougars]

I agree with the bolded part. THIS YEAR, yes, it's very debatable which one helps a team more. Going forward, I think more people would want Escobar, simply because he has a ceiling that he hasn't (and admittedly may not) reach. He could get better. He may not, but he could. Betancourt is at an age where you can look at his very best seasons, and see that those are clearly in the rearview mirror at this point.

 

But again, I digress, both of them have more or less completely sucked this year, and it's a coin toss to which one you'd rather have I guess.

Agreed. Alcides obviously has a higher value based on his potential. To be honest though, I'm glad the Brewers traded him while he still had some value. Otherwise, we could have been stuck with him for a few more years, waiting for him to develop into anything at the plate. Simply put, for the 2011 Brewers, Greinke+Betancourt>>> Pavano (etc.)+Escobar+Jeffress+Cain. It will probably take at least five years for us to determine a 'winner' for the big trade, but so far the Brewers are out to a nice early lead.

[Ennder]

The best part about Betancourt is knowing that we can spend Fielders money on a SS next year and make up some of the WAR we lose when he leaves. Betancourt brings no value at all to the team other than filling up space so if we can get even a 1 WAR guy next year it will make up a chunk of what we lose with Fielder. If we can get a 1.5 WAR 1B (Gamel?) suddenly we have made up about half of what we lose with Fielder.

[cwolf2012]

"If we can get a 1.5 WAR 1B (Gamel?)"

 

Frankly, I'd be sorely disappointed in Gamel if he was only worth 1.5 WAR as a 1B.

[logan82]

The reason I used wOBA here is because Punto and Betancourt have such different skill sets that looking at slash lines say very little.

 

The slash lines tell you a lot. You just need to know how OBP compares in value to SLG. wOBA does that for you.

[Oldcity]

I think we should be talking about a bigger upgrade than Punto. Rafael Furcal is coming back from injury, but he's been between a 2 and 4 WAR player for the last several years. He's due 13 mil, but the Dodgers with their financial situation would probably just about give him away. The key with him, though, is health, along with the hefty price tag.

 

Jamey Carroll is also someone who'd be a big upgrade. Not sure of his availability. Or Ronny Cedeno, Marco Scutaro, Clint Barmes, or Tyler Greene (though STL wouldn't trade him to us).

[TheCrew07]

"If we can get a 1.5 WAR 1B (Gamel?)"

 

Frankly, I'd be sorely disappointed in Gamel if he was only worth 1.5 WAR as a 1B.

Exactly, a 1.5 WAR season is extremely conservative... the only way I see that happening is if he suffers another injury and only plays half a season.

 

 

edit. I should add, whom exactly do we trade to acquire a different SS this season, it's not like the system is overflowing legit prospects.

[TheCrew]

If you are going to use one hitting stat, wOBA is probably one of the best. It is a little better than OPS and miles better than BA.

We don't need to use a single state though, that is the point - NO stat is perfect. Under no circumstances should you look at a single stat when trying to compare 2 players and make a full assessment............. not trying to be a jerk, but it's just silly.

 

Punto turns 34 this year, was barely above average defensively at SS the last season he logged significant innings there (contrary to popular belief of some, he is not a significant upgrade defensively at this point in his career) and we have 3, maybe 4 starting pitchers on the roster that can hit better than he can............... all this while ignoring the fact the guy can't seem to stay healthy anymore. And people are saying they would gladly take him as the everyday SS over Yuni?!?!?!?!?

 

Blows my mind...........

[rluzinski]

We don't need to use a single state though, that is the point - NO stat is perfect. Under no circumstances should you look at a single stat when trying to compare 2 players and make a full assessment............. not trying to be a jerk, but it's just silly.

 

Perhaps I misunderstood, you accused a poster of cherry picking. Is that because he only pointed out that their batting was roughly equal or because you don't think wOBA properly measures batting worth?

 

When I'm talking batting ability, projected wOBA or any other linear weights based metric is all I really want. Whether the player get's his value from a high BA, lot's of power, walking or any combination, it all comes down to runs produced. Unless someone wants to run custom linear weights for the Brewers' offense, I think that is about as "full assessment" as I expect here.

[TheCrew]

Perhaps I misunderstood, you accused a poster of cherry picking. Is that because he only pointed out that their batting was roughly equal or because you don't think wOBA properly measures batting worth?

My original post was in response to someone saying Betancourt and Punto were the same player offensively (or something to that effect) simply because their wOBA were close.

 

wOBA is a fine stat, but just like any other stat, it has flaws - I would never use it as a stand alone metric when comparing 2 players overall worth.

 

I mean David Ortiz and his K rate of 28% had the same wOBA as Ryan Braun and Prince last year and guys like Aubrey Huff and Luke Scott had higher wOBA's............ like I said, it's a fine stat and all, it does have value - but to try and say two players have equal offensive value because they have similar wOBA's is a wee bit foolish in my most humble opinion.

[Funketown]

I mean David Ortiz and his K rate of 28% had the same wOBA as Ryan Braun and Prince last year and guys like Aubrey Huff and Luke Scott had higher wOBA's............ like I said, it's a fine stat and all, it does have value - but to try and say two players have equal offensive value because they have similar wOBA's is a wee bit foolish in my most humble opinion.

Can you give a reason that David Ortiz was not as valuable as Braun and Prince on offense last year, or are those just your feelings? He got on base at a better clip than Braun and outslugged him.

 

He was about as valuable on offense as Braun last year, and their wOBA's were identical. Those four batters were similarly valuable last year on offense per plate appearance; what makes you think that is not the case?

 

Strikeouts are accounted for in most linearly weighted metrics, and I'm pretty sure they are included in wOBA, so I don't understand that criticism.

[Ennder]

No stat is perfect but wOBA covers the majority of what a hitter brings to the table, there are some hidden factors but you get 98% of the big picture or something from it. I find it odd you brought up K% like that was the flaw though.

[brewmann04]

I think most are surprised about Betancourt defensive play.I think so far defensively he has done a good job for the crew,

[Thurston Fluff]

I kind of think assuming any single stat tells 98% of anything may be where people go wrong. wOBA, WAR, OBP, they all have been used sometime or another as final determinants when they should really be used as quick and dirty assessment tools.

Start with them to get a basic idea then use all the various stats to get a total picture. Breaking them down vs compiling them into one general picture may show useful areas to otherwise flawed players. I think the overall idea of assuming any single stat, no matter how well conceived, can tell virtually everything about a player is off base. (no pun intended)

 

Sorry for the interruption. kind of been on an anti one stat tells all thing lately. We now resume your regularly scheduled programming.

[Funketown]

I kind of think assuming any single stat tells 98% of anything may be where people go wrong. wOBA, WAR, OBP, they all have been used sometime or another as final determinants when they should really be used as quick and dirty assessment tools.

Start with them to get a basic idea then use all the various stats to get a total picture. Breaking them down vs compiling them into one general picture may show useful areas to otherwise flawed players. I think the overall idea of assuming any single stat, no matter how well conceived, can tell virtually everything about a player is off base. (no pun intended)

I'm guessing the 98% number comes from the idea that 98% of variation in runs scored can be explained by variations in team wOBA, although I'm not sure if that's where it's from. So in that sense, the 98% number makes sense.

[1992casey]

OBP has never been a good stat for measuring total offensive value. It's missing extra bases, which make a major contribution. Similarly, SLG wouldn't be a good stat for measuring total offensive value because it fails to account for walks, which also make a significant contribution. Some stats are less significant. For instance, if a "total offensive value" stat skipped over strikeouts vs. other outs, we wouldn't be missing much.