Yuniesky Betancourt: What value does he bring to the team? (part 2)

[DuWayne Steurer]

Ok, I understand that Counsell's an older guy, and can't play everyday. But good lord, if Grampa Counsell can't buck up and play a full game 2 - 3 days a week, then maybe it's time to hang up the spikes.

[RockCoCougars]

Why does anyone want Counsell to receive significant playing time? He's toast. His best attribute at this point is drawing a walk, so I don't know why he is immune from the heat here. From everything I've seen Betancourt is better than average defensively. There, I said it. I think that his supposed lack of range is completely overplayed, as he's proved with plays during the past few weeks. Most importantly, he always makes the routine play with a strong and accurate arm, and is quite adept at turning two. He has been in a slump lately, but all it would take is a mini hot streak to get himself going. For example, Kotsay is now hitting .273. It's funny how it was about the defense when Yuni was hitting, now it's the offense again.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Why does anyone want Counsell to receive significant playing time? He's toast. His best attribute at this point is drawing a walk, so I don't know why he is immune from the heat here. From everything I've seen Betancourt is better than average defensively. There, I said it. I think that his supposed lack of range is completely overplayed, as he's proved with plays during the past few weeks. Most importantly, he always makes the routine play with a strong and accurate arm, and is quite adept at turning two. He has been in a slump lately, but all it would take is a mini hot streak to get himself going. For example, Kotsay is now hitting .273. It's funny how it was about the defense when Yuni was hitting, now it's the offense again.

Well, Counsell's putting up a .333 OBP, and I'll just completely disagree that Betancourt is 'above average' defensively. He's made a few flashy plays that impress people. That throw he made lastnight was awesome, but that doesn't mean he's overall been above average.

[endaround]

Because Counsell is better both offensively and defensively than Betancourt.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

The only thing Betancourt has that Counsell doesn't is a little power. Counsell gets on base and is a better fielder. The concern would be Counsell is the only backup at 3rd and 2nd as well, but he should still be out there more. I'd love to see him get the starts vs. RHP, but that's probably asking too much from RRR. YB is flat out awful.

[monty57]

Because Counsell is better both offensively and defensively than Betancourt.

That's certainly debateable, but basically it's like choosing between getting a stick in the eye or a sledgehammer to the crotch. Sure, Counsell should play a little more instead of Yuni, but neither is a good option. Yuni has been playing much better defense than I would have expected and hitting much worse than I would have expected, but my original expectations were pretty low for him all-around.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Why does anyone want Counsell to receive significant playing time?

It's really more a commentary on Betancourt than Counsell. Neither is an everyday major league shortstop at this point, but Counsell is better at getting on base and, at least IMO, better defensively.

In the end, it's really a commentary on how poorly the SS position was handled for this season. I actually generally like Melvin, unlike many on this board, but this was certainly a miss for him, and one that I think many saw coming. I don't want to turn this into a Melvin thing, but ultimately I think there needs to be a definitive move made at the deadline if this team is truly going to go for it. It doesn't have to be a blockbuster for someone like Reyes either, just a serviceable bat and good defender.

 

[monty57]

...ultimately I think there needs to be a definitive move made at the deadline if this team is truly going to go for it. It doesn't have to be a blockbuster for someone like Reyes either, just a serviceable bat and good defender.

 

 

DocBucky, I think you just said something which every poster in this 30 page thread would agree with. Yuni has gotten every chance to succeed so far this season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Counsell more if Yuni's offense continues to be as bad as it has, as bad offense is harder to hide than "limited range" defense... even "casual" fans will be calling for Yuni's head soon. If we are indeed in the race come mid-to-late July, I would be very surprised if we don't do something to change our SS situation.

[rluzinski]

For what they are worth, rest of season ZiPS projections for Betancourt and Counsell:

 

Betancourt: .262/.291/.398, .301 wOBA

Counsell: .257/.327/.341, .304 wOBA

 

That suggests they are basically equal offensively. With Counsell being the superior defender, he should be starting against righties as often as his body allows. And I agree, if he can't handle 2 starts a week, he's not good enough to justify holding onto, IMO.

[MJLiverock]

I'm not sure Counsell could put up those zips projections for the rest of the year. With a 41 year old ball player those projections are just guess for the most part because that age factor can hit hard and suddenly for a player and it doesn't matter a bit what some model predicts based on decline and few other guys that had a handful of AB's at that age.

 

If they want to play Counsell 2x a week versus RH'ers, fine, but I wouldn't bet that the results are any better than Bettancourt, he might very well end up with a sub .300 OBP with zero power if his bat has slowed as much as some have suggested due to age.

[Ennder]

Or his bat might not have slowed as much as people guess and he would beat those projections. They are educated guesses with age regression added into them already. In fact they probably regress him too much since he plays part time and I bet the real regression is probably harder on a full time player.

[MJLiverock]

My point is that regressions on players of his age probably aren't very accurate since the sample is so small and at some point it doesn't become just a smooth downward progression but rather a brick wall of inability to play because of age slowing reaction times and recovery ability. Counsell could very well outplay those projections but those projections are by no means some concrete expectation for a 41 year old player, if his bat speed is gone it doesn't matter what he hit last year or the year before.

 

Projections are a tool that rarely gets a guy right, they often are too low or too high. Look at the Kotsay arguements, one side wants to discount his production because he has outperformed his projections, acting like actual production is somehow less important than projected performance while with Counsell an arguement is made that just because some model projects him to be better than he has been.

 

I would guess the accuracy of a projection system starts taking a big hit in older players like Kotsay or Counsell because trying to gauge the affects of age on person is pretty difficult and not something easily just smoothed over time. And since the regression is just a line of best fit the data points might be all over the place, i.e. just because a regression exists doesn't mean it accurately predicts anything.

[FVBrewerFan]

Well, I still can't believe this is what we have at SS in the year they wanted to really go all out to win. You do 2 big trades for top of the rotation starters, shore up the bullpen, and make the decision to hold on to Fielder. All to take a legitimate shot at the World Series. Melvin even hedged his bet in CF by bringing in Morgan. Did he really believe Yuni would be good enough at SS?

 

It's a long season, so it won't be too late if a move is made at the All Star break. There's got to be just a decent SS they can get without having to give up very much.

[cwolf2012]

"There's got to be just a decent SS they can get without having to give up very much. "

 

As Strawboss has contended, this guy isn't available yet. Yuni is probably a -0.5 - 1 WAR player, and any available players at this point who are on MLB rosters are pretty much the same. I'd have to do a pretty thorough scan of AAA to find someone who would be available cheap, and those guys would probably be only worth no more than a .3-.5 WAR upgrade in a best case. That is by no means a guaranteed upgrade either.

 

The best case is that someone like Scutaro, Yunel Escobar, or Hardy is available for a surplus arm as a salary dump at the trade deadline. Although if Mark Rogers has appeal to other teams, I would definitely be willing to part with him as the primary piece in a package for somebody slightly better than those guys.

[Ennder]

Well, I still can't believe this is what we have at SS in the year they wanted to really go all out to win. You do 2 big trades for top of the rotation starters, shore up the bullpen, and make the decision to hold on to Fielder. All to take a legitimate shot at the World Series. Melvin even hedged his bet in CF by bringing in Morgan. Did he really believe Yuni would be good enough at SS?

 

It's a long season, so it won't be too late if a move is made at the All Star break. There's got to be just a decent SS they can get without having to give up very much.

This seems to be a misconception, this year isn't all in at all. We traded for pitchers with multiple years left that can easily be flipped next year for very good prospects or we could pursue extensions for them. Given his base running and defense we can replace Fielder next year and still have a playoff hopeful team.

[monty57]

Well, I still can't believe this is what we have at SS in the year they wanted to really go all out to win. You do 2 big trades for top of the rotation starters, shore up the bullpen, and make the decision to hold on to Fielder. All to take a legitimate shot at the World Series. Melvin even hedged his bet in CF by bringing in Morgan. Did he really believe Yuni would be good enough at SS?

 

It's a long season, so it won't be too late if a move is made at the All Star break. There's got to be just a decent SS they can get without having to give up very much.

This seems to be a misconception, this year isn't all in at all. We traded for pitchers with multiple years left that can easily be flipped next year for very good prospects or we could pursue extensions for them. Given his base running and defense we can replace Fielder next year and still have a playoff hopeful team.

 

Maybe the better terminology would be "I can't believe that this is what we have at SS in a year in which we did so much to upgrade other positions and are seemingly making a big shot at the playoffs."

 

It's a matter of semantics. Sure, we're not going "all in," and I agree that we have many scenarios where we will continue to be good beyond this season, but Melvin was certainly trying to make a splash last off-season to greatly improve this year's team. This has been re-hashed many times, and maybe Yuni was the best option available, but it would certainly be nice to at least have a "Plan B."

[Thurston Fluff]

Maybe the better terminology would be "I can't believe that this is what we have at SS in a year in which we did so much to upgrade other positions and are seemingly making a big shot at the playoffs."

 

Those upgrades cost us in other areas. If this was a one year, all in, scenario it would be bad. Since it isn't we have a one year stopgap in place with the hope the upgrades in other areas compensate for it. If it does then we can win this season. If not there are upgrades to be had next season with far fewer holes that need to be created to do so. Top of the rotation pitching is the hardest thing to get. We have that in place for the next couple seasons. Finding a serviceable shortstop should be easier to do than upgrading the top of a pitching rotation.

[monty57]

Oh, I agree BUC, and I'm glad we made the trades. Going back to the offseason, I understood the moves and why we brought Yuni on board, since there weren't many other options out there. I have always worried that this season is basically Yuni or bust. I don't trust Counsell to perform as an everyday SS, and we have no one else in the system to step in if Yuni gets injured or fails. Our one option (although not a great one) was Luiz Cruz, and we let him go so we could keep Reed, Counsell, Kotsay and Almonte on the MLB bench.

 

As I mentioned above, I just wish we had a "Plan B" in place. Even if Yuni were playing well, there's always a chance he gets hurt.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think they were surprised Cruz moved on. Given the Brewers circumstances I think that may have been a bad move on his part as well. Though last I checked maybe not much of a loss at all. He's got a sub 300 OBP in AAA so far this season.

[MJLiverock]

*** SMALL SAMPLE ALERT ***

 

Just thought it would be funny to point out at this stage of the season, the guy that's been brought up so much in this thread, Nick Punto, has a higher OPS than Albert Pujols.

 

Punto .751 OPS, 110 OPS +

Pujols .739 OPS 105 OPS +

 

*** SMALL SAMPLE ALERT ***

And Punto the the DL again.

[geddymd73]

Yuni continues to do well at home. Frankly, I don't think Counsell hits a homer, or comes close to 3 for 6 if in that Colorado game. Still hitting over .300 at home.

[Ennder]

Yuni continues to do well at home. Frankly, I don't think Counsell hits a homer, or comes close to 3 for 6 if in that Colorado game. Still hitting over .300 at home.

He also doesn't make the error that gives the Rockies the lead. Trying to justify things by a single game is pretty weak in general though. Counsell is as good of a hitter, he just doesn't have the power and he is a way better fielder. He is also too old to play more than 2 times a week though.

[TheCrew]

He also doesn't make the error that gives the Rockies the lead. Trying to justify things by a single game is pretty weak in general though. Counsell is as good of a hitter, he just doesn't have the power and he is a way better fielder. He is also too old to play more than 2 times a week though.

Just to play devil's advocate - he doesn't have a chance to make that error if he didn't homer 15 minutes earlier.

[Thurston Fluff]

He is also too old to play more than 2 times a week though.

 

That would be the main problem. Yuni did have a couple nice plays as well. He seems very good at turning double plays good hands and a decent arm. The one where he took Casey's throw coming across the bag was very smooth. His only real weakness on defense seems to me to be range. Only might be a poor choice of words. It really is limited.

 

And Punto the the DL again.

 

Yuni has that going for him as well. NO matter how much better of fielder Punto or Hardy may be if they can't stay on the field their team is going to be going with replacement level players at short quite often as well.

[derflotr]

Yuni is definitely someone I'd like to be replaced but he certainly doesn't deserve to be the scapegoat for the team's less-than-wonderful record right now. Everyone knows the timely hitting has been the problem for them and that's on just about everyone. Betancourt has played a much better SS than I expected but that's only because of the incredibly low expectations everyone advertised all offseason. I hope they can find another SS but I won't be holding my breath.