Yuniesky Betancourt: What value does he bring to the team? (part 2)

[brettac1]

I think the "argument" of whether walking is a skill is pretty much settled by looking at how many players do it consistently, year in and year out.

[rluzinski]

I think the "argument" of whether walking is a skill is pretty much settled by looking at how many players do it consistently, year in and year out.

It's obviously a function of the pitcher AND batter. This was settled about two decades ago.

[RockCoCougars]

It's obviously a function of the pitcher AND batter. This was settled about two decades ago.

 

I agree. Obviously, some guys are 'proficient' at walking because they are pitched carefully or simply pitched around. Killebrew, Frank Thomas, Bonds, Prince, etc. On the other hand, you have these non power guys who tend to draw walks at a slightly than higher than average clip: Counsell, Carroll, etc. I would put the first group mostly on the hitter's ability, while I would put the second mostly on the pitcher's lack of control.

 

the fact that they're low in OBP AND Runs scored would seem to support the argument that OBP has a direct correlation with ones ability to score runs, wouldn't it?

 

Well, they are 8th in walks. Unfortunately they are last in homers.

 

You haven't seen guys up there who foul off 3-4 pitches before earning a walk? You haven't seen guys who consistently have high walk rates? Are they just luckier or what?

 

I can't find the stats on this, but I'd be willing to bet a good sum that guys like Counsell and Carroll draw more 4, 5 or 6 pitch walks than they do >6 pitches. Simply put, if you are going up there looking to walk, you won't swing as much. By design, you will walk more. I would guess that these low power/higher than average walk guys have a much lower swing percentage than average, as Counsell and Carroll do. Does this approach result in more walks? Of course, but in my view this passiveness is about as detrimental as Yuni's free swinging ways are.

[FVBrewerFan]

Does this approach result in more walks? Of course, but in my view this passiveness is about as detrimental as Yuni's free swinging ways are.

So swinging at balls out of the strike zone is more productive than taking them? You're also ignoring the most importatn stat of all, as cited by Bill Schroeder. Walks always come around to score.

[Ayt]

You place the blame for walks against guys like Counsell and Carroll on the pitchers even though you think the Counsell's and Carroll's of the world are awful hitters. Why would pitchers walk these guys? You can't just blame it on a lack of control since solid OBP guys with little power also draw walks against the best pitchers in the game.

[danzig6767]

It's obviously a function of the pitcher AND batter. This was settled about two decades ago.

 

I agree. Obviously, some guys are 'proficient' at walking because they are pitched carefully or simply pitched around. Killebrew, Frank Thomas, Bonds, Prince, etc. On the other hand, you have these non power guys who tend to draw walks at a slightly than higher than average clip: Counsell, Carroll, etc. I would put the first group mostly on the hitter's ability, while I would put the second mostly on the pitcher's lack of control.

You can't be serious here. Josh Wilson in his major league career has shown very little power and an aversion to taking walks fairly close to Betancourt's impatience. The reason though that Counsell has managed to always walk at a much higher rate than Wilson, even though both have had little to no power is obvious and it's not the pitcher, Counsell almost always has only swung at strikes, while Wilson will swing at way more pitches out of the strike zone than Counsell will. It should be obvious to you when watching Counsell at the plate since he's been here, he has an incredible eye at the plate. Even if a pitch is just barely out of the strike zone, he smartly won't swing at it, but free swingers like Wilson and Betancourt will. It's precisely why they make so many outs.

 

 

I can't find the stats on this, but I'd be willing to bet a good sum

that guys like Counsell and Carroll draw more 4, 5 or 6 pitch walks than

they do >6 pitches. Simply put, if you are going up there looking

to walk, you won't swing as much. By design, you will walk more.

Counsell doesn't go up to the plate trying to take a walk. He goes up to the plate and with an agenda to only swing at strikes he feels he can handle. Huge difference. If though a pitcher doesn't throw him strikes he feels are good pitches to swing at, he smartly then will take the walk. It's the difference between being a smart hitter who forces pitchers to throw them good pitches to hit and impatient hitters who allow pitchers to get them out by doing a favor to those pitchers, by swinging at stuff off the plate which increase the odds that the hitter won't square up on the pitch, if he even makes contact. It's the same with power hitters. It's not coincidence that say Vlad rarely took walks, while Prince walks a ton. Every batter who steps in that box has the option to force pitchers to throw them quality strikes on a consistent basis or to consistently swing at pitches out of the strike zone. This isn't complicated.

 

The sad thing about a guy like Betancourt is he does have a pretty balanced swing, he has some power for a SS, and he's good at making contact. If he had an approach at the plate even close to what Counsell brings up there all the time, Yuni likely could have had a career being a very above average hitting shortstop. Instead though he's a moron up at the plate. He constantly allows pitchers to not throw him quality pitches to hit because he'll swing at their garbage first, which is why he so often hits those shallow fly balls.

[RockCoCougars]

You can't be serious here. Josh Wilson in his major league career has shown very little power and an aversion to taking walks fairly close to Betancourt's impatience. The reason though that Counsell has managed to always walk at a much higher rate than Wilson, even though both have had little to no power is obvious and it's not the pitcher, Counsell almost always has only swung at strikes, while Wilson will swing at way more pitches out of the strike zone than Counsell will. It should be obvious to you when watching Counsell at the plate since he's been here, he has an incredible eye at the plate. Even if a pitch is just barely out of the strike zone, he smartly won't swing at it, but free swingers like Wilson and Betancourt will. It's precisely why they make so many outs.

 

I'm absolutely serious. In their careers, Counsell has swung at 37.8% of pitches and Carroll has swung at 38.0%. Are you saying that these guys have only had this percentage of strikes thrown to them? In MLB, over 60 percent of pitches are strikes, so obviously these two are watching a ton of strikes per year. League average swing rates are in the mid 40 percent range, so these guys generally swing at 15-20% fewer pitches than average. You may say that this is 'discipline', I say that it's passiveness. Obviously a guy like Yuni will walk much less with his free swinging ways (career swing rate 51.6%), and that's a bad thing. I would make the argument that passiveness is almost just as bad. The only case that I really like passiveness at the plate is late in the game tied / down by a few or less or when you are trying to run the pitch count of an elite pitcher up.

[endaround]

Brett Garner swings at even a lower percentage. He must stink. Andrew McCutcheon is right there with them, he must stink. Don't even get me started on Ben Zobrist!

[RockCoCougars]

Those guys have actually hit double digit homers over the past few years. I'm assuming that guys pitch them more carefully. Do you guys honestly think that pitchers aren't trying to attack the zone with a Counsell or Carroll at bat? If you walk Andrew McCutcheon, not the end of the world. You walk Craig Counsell, you are swearing to yourself.

[cwolf2012]

"I'm assuming that guys pitch them more carefully. Do you guys honestly

think that pitchers aren't trying to attack the zone with a Counsell or

Carroll at bat? If you walk Andrew McCutcheon, not the end of the world. You walk Craig Counsell, you are swearing to yourself.

 

Once again, you're contradicting your own arguments. Almost everything you've said in the last couple pages has supported the position you're arguing against.

[RockCoCougars]

"I'm assuming that guys pitch them more carefully. Do you guys honestly

think that pitchers aren't trying to attack the zone with a Counsell or

Carroll at bat? If you walk Andrew McCutcheon, not the end of the world. You walk Craig Counsell, you are swearing to yourself.

 

Once again, you're contradicting your own arguments. Almost everything you've said in the last couple pages has supported the position you're arguing against.

I disagree. My point is that with a hitter who poses an offensive threat, especially with home run power- walks are due in large part to the hitter's skill set. They are getting pitched more carefully. Guys like Counsell walk because they lack aggressiveness at the plate. They walk when this passiveness combines with a pitcher's lack of control (and I'll grant the ability to foul a ball or two off once in a while). Even pitchers walk once every 30 or so plate appearances, and they don't have the foul off ability or street cred with the umpires. I wish that I could see a chart with the pitch count of Counsell walks. I bet it's somewhere in the 6 or 7 range.

[danzig6767]

"I'm assuming that guys pitch them more carefully. Do you guys honestly

think that pitchers aren't trying to attack the zone with a Counsell or

Carroll at bat? If you walk Andrew McCutcheon, not the end of the world. You walk Craig Counsell, you are swearing to yourself.

 

Once again, you're contradicting your own arguments. Almost everything you've said in the last couple pages has supported the position you're arguing against.

No kidding, it's hard for me to wrap my brain around what RockCoCougers is trying to argue, basically trying to imply that it's better for a hitter to swing at more pitches out of the strike zone than to take them because it shows a lack of aggressiveness. What?

[geddymd73]

To be fair, Yuni seems to be looking at a few more pitches than he usually does in the last few games, and even getting a couple of walks. We'll see if this latest 11 for 26 stretch, 7 game hitting streak, and the .299/.324 for the month continues. So far, so good. We can't possibly see an upgrade during his hottest stretch of the season.

[Oldcity]

Even if he hits .280 the rest of the season, hell, if he hits .300, his defense is still killing the team.

[danzig6767]

"I'm assuming that guys pitch them more carefully. Do you guys honestly

think that pitchers aren't trying to attack the zone with a Counsell or

Carroll at bat? If you walk Andrew McCutcheon, not the end of the world. You walk Craig Counsell, you are swearing to yourself.

 

Once again, you're contradicting your own arguments. Almost everything you've said in the last couple pages has supported the position you're arguing against.

I disagree. My point is that with a hitter who poses an offensive threat, especially with home run power- walks are due in large part to the hitter's skill set. They are getting pitched more carefully. Guys like Counsell walk because they lack aggressiveness at the plate. They walk when this passiveness combines with a pitcher's lack of control (and I'll grant the ability to foul a ball or two off once in a while). Even pitchers walk once every 30 or so plate appearances, and they don't have the foul off ability or street cred with the umpires. I wish that I could see a chart with the pitch count of Counsell walks. I bet it's somewhere in the 6 or 7 range.

Obviously pitchers are going to be more careful when pitching to proven power hitters than a guy like Counsell, but pitchers are rarely going to ever just pump fastballs right down the middle to any position player simply to avoid a walk, including guys like Counsell with very little power. Thus, they still try hitting the corners with fastballs and throw them various kinds of offspeed pitches.

 

What hitters like Counsell and Carroll though so smartly do is

 

1. They respect and value the importance of doing all they can to avoid making an out. You only get 27 of those outs each game and high IQ baseball players really understand the game enough to properly the value getting on base vs making an out.

 

2. They grasp the obvious that it's easier to hit while not being behind in the count. Generally the easiest and worst route to getting behind in the count is by swinging at pitches out of the strike zone early in the count which the pitchers are hoping you'll swing at.

 

3. They also smartly understand their limitations as hitters. They know that they can't go up to the plate like say Braun and quite often still hit the ball hard on pitches either out of the strike zone or on pitchers pitches that hit the corners of the plate. So they don't go to the plate with the main intention of drawing a walk which you for whatever reason believe, they instead go to the plate with an actual plan, unlike free swinging hackers like Betancourt. Counsell and Carroll types go up there with a plan of trying their best to only swing at pitches they feel they can handle best. Not fastballs painting the corner early in the count. Not sliders which either catch the corner or end up off the corner, which Yuni loves so much in showing his "aggressiveness" at the plate. Those are pitchers pitches and they love seeing hitters swing at them, even if on some occasions the hitter still manages to turn that pitchers pitch into a hit because in most cases, that kind of pitch will result into a hit ball out instead. Lastly, if in this process, four of those pitches were off the plate enough leading to a walk, they'll smartly take those pitches and the free base vs instead swinging at balls which would have increased their odds of making an out.

 

That "aggressiveness" you seem to love so much at the plate is how some players like Yuni become out machines, while on the flip side a guy like Carroll who lacks the natural gifts of a Betancourt to hit a ball hard/far, Carroll can still be a more productive overall offensive player by understanding what should be obvious, that it's smarter to make pitchers throw you strikes than to consistently help those pitchers out by swinging at the pitches they want you to swing at. Regularly swinging at the pitches a pitcher hopes you'll swing at isn't being aggressive at the plate, it's being stupid except for the rare special hitters who can pretty consistently hit tough pitches hard.

[RockCoCougars]

Obviously pitchers are going to be more careful when pitching to proven power hitters than a guy like Counsell, but pitchers are rarely going to ever just pump fastballs right down the middle to any position player simply to avoid a walk, including guys like Counsell with very little power. Thus, they still try hitting the corners with fastballs and throw them various kinds of offspeed pitches.

 

What hitters like Counsell and Carroll though so smartly do is …

Thanks for the reply. I agree with a lot of what you said, including the fact that Yuni's free-swinging approach is to his detriment. However, I believe that if you had a lineup full of decent OBP/ low power guys, you would not score many runs. In many instances, it would take 3 guys reaching base to score a run. Obviously plate discipline is a good thing in that ideally you could work the count to the point where you get a fastball to drive- or draw a walk. That said, do guys like Counsell/Carroll really drive the ball consistently? We are talking about guys who would probably hit 7-8 for the Brewers. Is a walk as valuable when you have a pitcher lurking with a bat in his hands? Another interesting thing that I was able to find is that over Counsell's career in non-intentional walks, 58% of them have been of the 4 or 5 pitch variety. That is much higher than even I thought it would be. Is there really a skill in drawing a four or five pitch walk, or does luck play a role? I highly doubt that guys are pitching around Counsell- maybe a little back in the day when he was hitting 8th. Taking pitches until you get a strike would pretty much do the trick.

[RightFieldCoder]

I believe that if you had a lineup full of decent OBP/ low power guys, you would not score many runs. In many instances, it would take 3 guys reaching base to score a run. Obviously plate discipline is a good thing in that ideally you could work the count to the point where you get a fastball to drive- or draw a walk.

Putting two or three guys on base every inning will lead to more stress on the pitcher. It will also cause the pitch count to get up there and the relief pitcher (who isn't good enough to start) to come into the game. I consider any long at bats a good plate appearance. That is how you beat Gallardo. Yo tries to get you to swing at pitches out of the zone. Even if you don't put up any runs, he is out of the game after 6. Now you can hit the soft underbelly of any team, the middle relief.

Is a walk as valuable when you have a pitcher lurking with a bat in his hands?

Yes. It gets to the top of the lineup that much faster. It leads to more pitches on the pitcher. And it means the pitcher isn't leading off an inning. I want my 8 hitter to draw walks, if they are offered.

Is there really a skill in drawing a four or five pitch walk, or does luck play a role? I highly doubt that guys are pitching around Counsell- maybe a little back in the day when he was hitting 8th. Taking pitches until you get a strike would pretty much do the trick.

Yes, there is a skill in it. Otherwise Yuni would draw as many as Prince. You have to be patient enough to look for a pitch that you think you can drive. Some people will swing at anything they think they can hit with their bat. Some people are so afraid of a strikeout they would rather make contact with the first pitch they can. Some people have the skill of looking for a specific pitch and only swinging at that pitch. Some people are not afraid to be in the box with two strikes.

 

I don't think anyone is saying they want 8 hitters who only walk. It's the realization that we can't have 8 Fielders or Brauns. We'll need to fill in with some players that have deficiencies in their game. A guy who has a high OBP/low SLG is a better offensive threat than the guy with a low OBP/high SLG. There are specific instances where the latter would give you better results, but over the course of the season the former will lead to more wins.

[monty57]

A guy who has a high OBP/low SLG is a better offensive threat than the guy with a low OBP/high SLG.

 

I agree, but to bring it to this thread, we're talking about Yuni, who's "high SLG" is a .391 career average with a peak of .418 in 2007, and .371 this year. This goes along with his free-swining ways, which lead him to a career .294 OBP (.272 this season). If he played to his career norms (.270/.294/.391/.685) he would be very replaceable, but at least provide something. His .252/.272/.371/.643 along with his poor defense means Melvin should be on the phone 24/7 trying to replace him.

 

Jamey Carroll (who has been rumored, and is being used in comparison by RockCo) is currently sitting at .288/.360/.355/.715, around his career norms of .277/.356/.349/.705. Carroll is just a better player than Yuni, and with the Dodgers' financial woes, could probably be had cheaply in trade if we'd agree to pay his salary. His OBP could make him either a leadoff batter, moving Hart to #2 where his power would be better served, at #2, moving the Morgan/Carroll platoon down (not because of Morgan, but because of Carroll), or down in the order. Wherever you put him, the lineup gets better.

 

Of course I would rather have someone like Reyes, but that's probably not realistic and Carroll would be a significant upgrade for probably little cost in terms of prospects.

[BillScottCanRake]

Is a walk as valuable when you have a pitcher lurking with a bat in his hands?

 

I think it is important to note that a .250 hitter isn't a .250 hitter when he swings at pitchers pitches. He got to be a .250 hitter by hitting mistakes and pitches in his zone along with the occasional tough pitch. A .250 hitter can easily become a .150 hitter if they start swing at balls 6 inches off the plate- in other words, a pitcher.

 

Additionally, I think there is a difference between going to the plate and looking to walk as opposed to taking a walk. A player looking to walk might take a couple of pitches down the middle, whereas a hitter who accepts a walk will swing at them.

 

With those two things in mind, I want the number 8 hitter to be aggressive within the hitting zone, just like I want all hitters to be. That said, I have no problem with the number eight hitter taking a walk if the alternative is swinging at pitchers pitches. A walk is always better than making an out, regardless of who follows. A walk preserves an out, clears the pitchers spot in the order, gives a hitter (no matter how weak) the chance to drive in runs, increases pitch counts, causes pitchers to work from the stretch, etc. And if the pitcher does make an out, I'd like to think my lead-off hitter can start a rally next inning. A teams odds of scoring a run are better with one on and no outs than they are with one on and one out.

[NYChez]

Yuni's OPS is only .041 below and defensive WAR is higher than a player who was voted as being just as good as Babe Ruth.

[DougJones43]

41 OPS points is significant, particularly when it's OBP-heavy. And fans once voted Lindy Infante as the best Packers coach in team history, so I'm not really sure what point you're trying to prove here.

[gregmag]

I believe that if you had a lineup full of decent OBP/ low power guys, you would not score many runs. In many instances, it would take 3 guys reaching base to score a run. Obviously plate discipline is a good thing in that ideally you could work the count to the point where you get a fastball to drive- or draw a walk.

Bill James actually looked at this, years ago -- I forget which book it's in. He ran a computer simulation with one lineup full of OBP guys and one full of SLG guys (I think he used one player who exemplified each type) over hundreds of games. The OBP team scored a lot more runs. You could do a more sophisticated version of the study with, say, one team that's .400/.400 and another that's .300/.500, and I'm pretty sure (though I don't have the knowhow to test my intuition) that the OBP team would win again. Not making outs is the single most important part of a baseball offense.

 

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

I believe that if you had a lineup full of decent OBP/ low power guys, you would not score many runs. In many instances, it would take 3 guys reaching base to score a run. Obviously plate discipline is a good thing in that ideally you could work the count to the point where you get a fastball to drive- or draw a walk.

Bill James actually looked at this, years ago -- I forget which book it's in. He ran a computer simulation with one lineup full of OBP guys and one full of SLG guys (I think he used one player who exemplified each type) over hundreds of games. The OBP team scored a lot more runs. You could do a more sophisticated version of the study with, say, one team that's .400/.400 and another that's .300/.500, and I'm pretty sure (though I don't have the knowhow to test my intuition) that the OBP team would win again. Not making outs is the single most important part of a baseball offense.

 

Quick and dirty math says that over a full season that would be about a 55-60 run swing in favor of the high OBP offense.

 

The '92 Brewers were 7th in the AL in OBP, and 11th in SLG, but 5th in runs, with 740 runs, despite hitting only 82 homers. There's plenty of other examples, but that's one that's right off the top of my head.

[rluzinski]

I believe that if you had a lineup full of decent OBP/ low power guys, you would not score many runs. In many instances, it would take 3 guys reaching base to score a run. Obviously plate discipline is a good thing in that ideally you could work the count to the point where you get a fastball to drive- or draw a walk.

Bill James actually looked at this, years ago -- I forget which book it's in. He ran a computer simulation with one lineup full of OBP guys and one full of SLG guys (I think he used one player who exemplified each type) over hundreds of games. The OBP team scored a lot more runs. You could do a more sophisticated version of the study with, say, one team that's .400/.400 and another that's .300/.500, and I'm pretty sure (though I don't have the knowhow to test my intuition) that the OBP team would win again. Not making outs is the single most important part of a baseball offense.

 

It's been studied to death using every method you can think of (simulations, regressions based on historical data, etc...). Yes, SLG becomes more valuable in different parts of the lineup but the effects are subtle. If you stuck with just using the rule-of-thumb 1.8*OBP + SLG to determine who should be in the lineup, you will do well for yourself.

[RockCoCougars]

I believe that if you had a lineup full of decent OBP/ low power guys, you would not score many runs. In many instances, it would take 3 guys reaching base to score a run. Obviously plate discipline is a good thing in that ideally you could work the count to the point where you get a fastball to drive- or draw a walk.

Bill James actually looked at this, years ago -- I forget which book it's in. He ran a computer simulation with one lineup full of OBP guys and one full of SLG guys (I think he used one player who exemplified each type) over hundreds of games. The OBP team scored a lot more runs. You could do a more sophisticated version of the study with, say, one team that's .400/.400 and another that's .300/.500, and I'm pretty sure (though I don't have the knowhow to test my intuition) that the OBP team would win again. Not making outs is the single most important part of a baseball offense.

 

Interesting. Thanks for the post, I'll try to Google it later. My only argument against this would be with guys like Carroll/Counsell who rarely sniff a .400 SLG. If they had a say, .340/.360 line, how would they fare against a .275/.425?