Yuniesky Betancourt: What value does he bring to the team? (part 2)

[pebadger]

Yuni is easier to dislike, but McGehee has been worse, is easier (and likely cheaper) to replace and has shown not even a glimmer of turning it around (as Yuni has in a recent small sample).

 

If the Crew can only upgrade half of the left side, I think it's a pretty easy vote to keep YB and replace CM.

[RockCoCougars]

If Yuni gets into positive WAR territory, what do we say then?

[logan82]

If Yuni gets into positive WAR territory, what do we say then?

He still sucks, just not as much.

[RockCoCougars]

There are worse players on the roster as we speak...Counsell now has a -.7 WAR. Isn't that pretty ridiculous for a part time player? How many runs is that value worth? Watching his at bat last night was funny. The Giants catcher reminded me of mine in high school when the #9 hitter was up and I threw a few balls... he was like slow down and keep the ball down, don't walk this guy.

[TheCrew]

Yuni is easier to dislike, but McGehee has been worse, is easier (and likely cheaper) to replace and has shown not even a glimmer of turning it around (as Yuni has in a recent small sample).

 

If the Crew can only upgrade half of the left side, I think it's a pretty easy vote to keep YB and replace CM.

I've been banging this drum for a while now. There is at least a glimmer of hope with YB (recent hot streak, every season in majors he has been better in the 2nd half, etc.) while the only thing we have to hang our hat on with McGehee is hope, and even that hope is a reach as we are hoping he gets back to playing above his head and it is becoming more and more clear that 2010 and the 2nd half of 2009 were the career outliers.

[rluzinski]

Wow, Yuni got his OBP to .270 so it's time to start trying to throw that in his detractor's faces? What kind of bizarro world have I stepped into?

 

Let's be objective here:

 

Current Line: .252 / .270 / .373

ZiPS ROS: .265 / .290 / .397

 

I don't think there's any question that Betancourt has been under performing offensively this year and should be expected to do better going forward. Unfortunately, he still projects to only have a .290 OBP going forward. That largely negates the decent power he has (for a SS). Well, that and his significantly below average defense.

 

Betancourt projected to be around a 0 WAR player when the Brewers traded for him, BTW.

[Bombers]

I think OBP is worth less in the 7th / 8th hole than OBP for a top of the order hitter. In the 7th / 8th spot - you need guys who hit for a decent average. Lucroy has done great in the 8 spot and I really hope Yuni keeps up the hitting in the 7th spot. I will take Yuni and his AVG > OBP if he keeps hitting at his current clip.

[geddymd73]

I find it hard to believe that every player is doomed to his previously held stats for the year, and those projections based on all that averaged data. The only good players in the end would be the ones who put up good numbers in April and May.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not saying that Yuni is a 'good player', and I'd be all in for a true upgrade, but at least he has shown the ability to hit the ball hard. He's pretty much had two short hot streaks at the plate, enveloped by two longer droughts. That said, I don't think that a guy like Carroll- whose primary offensive 'strength' is the ability to draw a walk- would be an upgrade.

[rluzinski]

I find it hard to believe that every player is doomed to his previously held stats for the year, and those projections based on all that averaged data. The only good players in the end would be the ones who put up good numbers in April and May.

Betancourt projects to do much better than he did in April and May so I have no idea what you are suggesting. And projections are more of an educated guess than some kind of prognostication.

[HiAndTight]

There are worse players on the roster as we speak...Counsell now has a -.7 WAR. Isn't that pretty ridiculous for a part time player? How many runs is that value worth? Watching his at bat last night was funny. The Giants catcher reminded me of mine in high school when the #9 hitter was up and I threw a few balls... he was like slow down and keep the ball down, don't walk this guy.

Counsell isn't our starting shortstop, and Counsell hasn't been this atrocious the last 3+ years.

[HiAndTight]

I'm not saying that Yuni is a 'good player', and I'd be all in for a true upgrade, but at least he has shown the ability to hit the ball hard. He's pretty much had two short hot streaks at the plate, enveloped by two longer droughts. That said, I don't think that a guy like Carroll- whose primary offensive 'strength' is the ability to draw a walk- would be an upgrade.

You keep saying Carroll wouldn't be an upgrade without saying why. I just fail to see how a .290/.375 type guy who plays better defense than Betancourt WOULDN'T be a clear upgrade?

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not saying that Yuni is a 'good player', and I'd be all in for a true upgrade, but at least he has shown the ability to hit the ball hard. He's pretty much had two short hot streaks at the plate, enveloped by two longer droughts. That said, I don't think that a guy like Carroll- whose primary offensive 'strength' is the ability to draw a walk- would be an upgrade.

You keep saying Carroll wouldn't be an upgrade without saying why. I just fail to see how a .290/.375 type guy who plays better defense than Betancourt WOULDN'T be a clear upgrade?

I said precisely why I don't want Carroll. I hate watching guys going up to the plate with the primary objective of drawing a walk to boost their OBP. That hasn't been working for Counsell very well this summer, as pitchers have been pounding him in the strike zone now that it's common knowledge that he can't hit. Carroll has absolutely no pop in his bat whatsoever. He's also been hitting like Counsell for the past several weeks.

[HiAndTight]

I'm not saying that Yuni is a 'good player', and I'd be all in for a true upgrade, but at least he has shown the ability to hit the ball hard. He's pretty much had two short hot streaks at the plate, enveloped by two longer droughts. That said, I don't think that a guy like Carroll- whose primary offensive 'strength' is the ability to draw a walk- would be an upgrade.

You keep saying Carroll wouldn't be an upgrade without saying why. I just fail to see how a .290/.375 type guy who plays better defense than Betancourt WOULDN'T be a clear upgrade?

I said precisely why I don't want Carroll. I hate watching guys going up to the plate with the primary objective of drawing a walk to boost their OBP. That hasn't been working for Counsell very well this summer, as pitchers have been pounding him in the strike zone now that it's common knowledge that he can't hit. Carroll has absolutely no pop in his bat whatsoever. He's also been hitting like Counsell for the past several weeks.

So you don't like him and you don't think he'd be an upgrade over Betancourt because you don't like watching guys who go up to the plate with what you deem to be the primary objective of walking?

 

I can think of worse things than trying to draw walks. Wildly flailing at the first pitch nowhere near the zone would be one.

I'd also point out that he hits for a much higher average than Betancourt, so whatever his primary objective may or may not be, he ALSO hits better than Betancourt.

 

As for the link between him and Counsell, I don't know what the two have to do with each other, beyond the fact that they're both older utility guys. If you're suggesting that the way Counsell is pitched is going to influence the way Carroll gets pitched, I'd say at 37 pitchers already know what they're getting with him.

 

As for the two week slump, I frankly don't think such a tiny sample size warrants much serious discussion. The guy has 10 seasons in. What are you really trying to say about a couple weeks?

[monty57]

Yuni has been bad, Casey's been worse. Improving isn't an either / or proposition. Casey can easily be replaced in-house, Yuni can't. Simply bringing up Green and being on the buying end of a "salary dump" trade for a SS would significantly improve this team.

 

Maybe if some GM's feel the same way about Yuni's "hot streak" as some of the posters here, they will accept Yuni back in trade. What team couldn't use a SS who can't play defense, can't hit for average, has no plate discipline and when he happens to get on base routinely runs into outs due to bad base running?

[HiAndTight]

Yuni has been bad, Casey's been worse. Improving isn't an either / or proposition. Casey can easily be replaced in-house, Yuni can't. Simply bringing up Green and being on the buying end of a "salary dump" trade for a SS would significantly improve this team.

 

Maybe if some GM's feel the same way about Yuni's "hot streak" as some of the posters here, they will accept Yuni back in trade. What team couldn't use a SS who can't play defense, can't hit for average, has no plate discipline and when he happens to get on base routinely runs into outs due to bad base running?

Hey, at least he doesn't go up there looking for walkshttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Ayt]

I think OBP is worth less in the 7th / 8th hole than OBP for a top of the order hitter. In the 7th / 8th spot - you need guys who hit for a decent average. Lucroy has done great in the 8 spot and I really hope Yuni keeps up the hitting in the 7th spot. I will take Yuni and his AVG > OBP if he keeps hitting at his current clip.

I'd prefer my 7th and 8th hitters to limit the amounts of outs they make so my better hitters can get more ABs. It is also nice when your worst hitters are still able to work the count so that starting pitchers have to waste pitches on them and the team can more often face relievers.

RockCoCougars wrote:

---

I'm not saying that Yuni is a 'good player', and I'd be all in for a true upgrade, but at least he has shown the ability to hit the ball hard. He's pretty much had two short hot streaks at the plate, enveloped by two longer droughts. That said, I don't think that a guy like Carroll- whose primary offensive 'strength' is the ability to draw a walk- would be an upgrade.

Am I suddenly back in the 80's?

[markedman5]

How much would an average defensive SS make if he could walk every at bat?

 

My guess is A LOT.................

[RockCoCougars]

I think OBP is worth less in the 7th / 8th hole than OBP for a top of the order hitter. In the 7th / 8th spot - you need guys who hit for a decent average. Lucroy has done great in the 8 spot and I really hope Yuni keeps up the hitting in the 7th spot. I will take Yuni and his AVG > OBP if he keeps hitting at his current clip.

I'd prefer my 7th and 8th hitters to limit the amounts of outs they make so my better hitters can get more ABs. It is also nice when your worst hitters are still able to work the count so that starting pitchers have to waste pitches on them and the team can more often face relievers.

RockCoCougars wrote:

---

I'm not saying that Yuni is a 'good player', and I'd be all in for a true upgrade, but at least he has shown the ability to hit the ball hard. He's pretty much had two short hot streaks at the plate, enveloped by two longer droughts. That said, I don't think that a guy like Carroll- whose primary offensive 'strength' is the ability to draw a walk- would be an upgrade.

Am I suddenly back in the 80's?

I'm not getting into the whole walk rate argument again. I will say

that no one can draw a walk unless the pitcher gives it to you. I have

no argument with the fact that Carroll will walk more than a free

swinger like Yuni, but in the end, the pitcher still needs to throw at

least 3 strikes. I don't understand why when a pitcher has a high walk

rate, it's on them, but when a guy like Counsell has a decent OBP,

somehow he is adept at getting on base. How has that worked for him

lately? How is Beane doing with his high OBP players like DeJesus and Crisp in Oakland? 13th in the A.L in runs and 12 in OBP. But this is because the rest of the league has caught on and these guys are no longer 'undervalued', right?

 

I'm with Bombers on the fact that OBP is overrated toward the bottom of the lineup. Especially in the NL. An 8 spot hitter in the N.L. should have a high OBP. There will be situations where they are pitched around, if not intentionally walked for the pitcher. There will also be situations where they get good pitches to hit simply because there are two outs and it's nice to have the pitcher leading off an inning. I'd rather have some guys with pop toward the bottom of the lineup than someone who will take the walk to let the pitcher kill the rally.

[Funketown]

How is Beane doing with his high OBP players like DeJesus and Crisp in Oakland? 13th in the A.L in runs and 12 in OBP. But this is because the rest of the league has caught on and these guys are no longer 'undervalued', right?

Well, yeah. The market adjusted before the book even came out.

 

http://www.clemson.edu/ec...all-ijsf-sept07-rev3.pdf

[logan82]

13th in the A.L in runs and 12 in OBP.

 

So because Oakland is having trouble getting good OBP teams they are scoring fewer runs. I think you just proved the opposing viewpoint.

[HiAndTight]

I'm not getting into the whole walk rate argument again. I will say

that no one can draw a walk unless the pitcher gives it to you.

 

You haven't seen guys up there who foul off 3-4 pitches before earning a walk? You haven't seen guys who consistently have high walk rates? Are they just luckier or what?

 

I don't understand why when a pitcher has a high walk

rate, it's on them, but when a guy like Counsell has a decent OBP,

somehow he is adept at getting on base.

 

So then what is it with Counsell? And by the whole, why is it you continually go back to referencing Counsell in this discussion? Do you honestly think the bottom dropping out for him is going to make the argument that walks aren't as important more viable?

 

How has that worked for him

lately?

 

Not exactly conclusive evidence against the importance of OBP.

 

How is Beane doing with his high OBP players like DeJesus and

Crisp in Oakland? 13th in the A.L in runs and 12 in OBP. But this is

because the rest of the league has caught on and these guys are no

longer 'undervalued', right?

 

Not sure what your point is here. Not sure when Crisp has EVER been known as a "high OBP player," and the fact that they're low in OBP AND Runs scored would seem to support the argument that OBP has a direct correlation with ones ability to score runs, wouldn't it? Thereby cutting your own argument off at the knees?

[danzig6767]

I think OBP is worth less in the 7th / 8th hole than OBP for a top of the order hitter. In the 7th / 8th spot - you need guys who hit for a decent average. Lucroy has done great in the 8 spot and I really hope Yuni keeps up the hitting in the 7th spot. I will take Yuni and his AVG > OBP if he keeps hitting at his current clip.

I'd prefer my 7th and 8th hitters to limit the amounts of outs they make so my better hitters can get more ABs. It is also nice when your worst hitters are still able to work the count so that starting pitchers have to waste pitches on them and the team can more often face relievers.

RockCoCougars wrote:

---

I'm not saying that Yuni is a 'good player', and I'd be all in for a true upgrade, but at least he has shown the ability to hit the ball hard. He's pretty much had two short hot streaks at the plate, enveloped by two longer droughts. That said, I don't think that a guy like Carroll- whose primary offensive 'strength' is the ability to draw a walk- would be an upgrade.

Am I suddenly back in the 80's?

 

I'm with Bombers on the fact that OBP is overrated toward the bottom of the lineup. Especially in the NL. An 8 spot hitter in the N.L. should have a high OBP. There will be situations where they are pitched around, if not intentionally walked for the pitcher. There will also be situations where they get good pitches to hit simply because there are two outs and it's nice to have the pitcher leading off an inning. I'd rather have some guys with pop toward the bottom of the lineup than someone who will take the walk to let the pitcher kill the rally.

So basically you prefer guys at the bottom of the order who make a ton more outs, so long as every once in awhile they get an extra base hit?

 

Well, we've clearly seen loud and clear just all the good it's done for the Brewers offense this season by having so many out making machines at the bottom of the order, that being not enough runs scoring. Plus, at least if guys walk at the bottom of the order instead of making an out and it leads to the pitcher ending the inning, at least the pitcher isn't leading off the next inning with an out.

[dlk9s]

How much would an average defensive SS a player make if he could walk every at bat?

 

My guess is A LOT.................

Any player who walked every AB would be the most valuable player in the game.

[gregmag]

I don't understand why when a pitcher has a high walk rate, it's on them, but when a guy like Counsell has a decent OBP, somehow he is adept at getting on base.

Nobody takes this strawman position . . . . It's really simple. Pitchers have some control over how many walks they issue. Hitters have some control over how many walks they draw. If Nolan Ryan pitches to Barry Bonds (I'm being anachronistic for the fun of it), walks likely ensue. If Greg Maddux pitches to Yuni Betancourt, nobody's walking anywhere. If we reverse those pairings, then it's an interesting confrontation, with different outcomes over a range of PAs. This is how all pitcher / hitter matchups play out; neither guy has complete control over home runs, strikeouts, or line drives either. What makes walks any different?