The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 2)

[brewmann04]

the best news is teams are intrested in him and hoipefully are AL teams

[Klements Bratwurst]

"and that there is a 3rd mystery team interested as well"

 

Ahhh. The infamous "mystery team." Again, you have to love these guys at this time of the year!!!

 

Prince going to the Tigers does make some sense. Let the two AL Central competitors fight over Prince. Hopefully it nets us more than just Hudson and Viciedo the "Cuban Sandwich."

 

This is just such a sad time though for us Brewer fans. As fans who watched Prince in the minors and then into his stellar career in Milwaukee, it is just amazing how fast time flies that after just 4 1/2 years the Prince of Milwaukee will be gone and this new "era" of success for this organization is at an end with just one playoff berth that was just barely made on the strength of CC's arm. I just hope the next batch of baby Brewers can get us to the promise land helped by a shrewd move or two with Prince and Hart going away via the trade route.

[StearnsFTW]

Brewers

In:

Jhoulis Chacin

Daniel Hudson

Franklin Morales

Dayan Viciedo

Jon Gilmore

 

Out:

Prince Fielder

Dave Bush

Casey McGehee

Dave Riske

 

White Sox

In:

Prince Fielder

Casey McGehee

Dave Bush

 

Out:

Gordon Beckham

Daniel Hudson

Dayan Viciedo

Jon Gilmore

 

Rockies

In:

Gordon Beckham

Dave Riske

 

Out:

Jhoulis Chacin

Franklin Morales

 

The Sox get the lefty slugger they covet in Fielder, and ease the losses of Beckham and Hudson by adding McGehee and Bush.

 

The Brewers get Chacin, a 22 year old with an ERA under 4 in 12 starts this year with more K's than IP, but is presently working out of the pen. The Rox get Riske to replace him in the pen. Morales has been a decent MLB starter in the past, has power stuff, and is still just 24. He folded under the pressure of closing this year, and is in AAA now. The Rox have been searching for a righthanded 2B-3B, and are always willing to rely on your talent, even in pennant chases, so Beckham fits them.

 

Chacin, Hudson, and Morales give Rick Peterson 3 great talents to work with immediately, and all are far enough along to give the Brewers potentially a very good 2011 rotation. Viciedo gives the Brewers options at 3B and 1B. Gilmore is a prospect I liked since pre-draft, and he's starting to unlock his potential.

 

Well thought-out, and an easy yes from me. Those are they type of pitchers we should be targeting.

[GB12]

Wouldn't you think Prince wouldn't want to play in Detroit given how he feels about his father?

[Hate those Rodents]

Not sure dad is connected to Detroit at all, so probably not a big deal. And Prince hardly seems like a guy that can't handle the "pressure" of matching dad's homeruns of the past.

[monty57]

why do we need 3 pitchers?

Because I couldn't figure out a way to get 4.

Thanks for the laugh.

 

Good job coming up with a great trade possibility. Getting Beckham in the trade would open up a lot of options. As your scenario points out, even if we want to go with Gamel at 3B and extend Weeks at 2B, we could trade the young, cheap, talented Beckham for pitching.

 

Adding McGehee to the White Sox deal would make a lot of sense, as he is valueable enough to cement Beckham into the deal (it's already close without McGehee) and probably allow us to grab a high ceiling guy in the low minors. Oh, and we have Gamel ready in AAA, so McGehee is available for the right price.

[endaround]

Wouldn't you think Prince wouldn't want to play in Detroit given how he feels about his father?

Its more that he wants to show up his father so I think he'd welcome becoming a HoF player in Detroit. His desire to be better than his father is also why I think he won't follow Cecil's career path.

[RyDogg66]

No offense to X ellence, because the talent seems to add up, but a trade of that proportion with 3 teams in mid season is so far from possibly happening that it doesnt even merit discussion.

[Hate those Rodents]

While I agree Rydogg, two things make a three team deal almost probable. If Doug is hell-bent on getting Beckham and Hudson in any deal with the Whitesox and Williams finally caves in, you can almost bet for certain that Beckham would immediately be peddled for a stud young pitcher.

[monty57]

I don't know all of the players involved, but the Brewers would be the team giving up MLB players, and this season is over for them. The White Sox would be increasing their MLB talent with Fielder, McGehee and Bush replacing Beckham and Hudson. Colorado would also be increasing their MLB talent, getting a 2nd year player with tremendous upside and a proven MLB reliever for a couple of young guys. These young guys have potential, but aren't a big part of a Rockies playoff run this season.

 

I don't know how likely a trade like this would be, but the main reason big trades don't happen mid season is that no one in a playoff hunt would be willing to give up on players who are helping get them to the playoffs. I don't see the White Sox or Rockies giving up talent that is going to help this season that isn't being replaced. If nothing else, it was a pretty well thought out trade idea.

 

That said, a trade like this wouldn't have to be structured as a "three team deal." The Brewers / White Sox trade could occur now, and the Brewers / {other team} trade could happen this offseason. Let's say the Brewers trade Fielder, Bush and McGehee to the Sox for Hudson, Beckham and a low level prospect or two. Beckham could replace McGehee at 3B for the Brewers this season, and a strong 2nd half could increase his value in trade for the offseason. Or, it could validate that he is someone to hold onto, and we could trade Weeks or Gamel for pitching in the offseason.

[Never Outhustled]

No offense to X ellence, because the talent seems to add up, but a trade of that proportion with 3 teams in mid season is so far from possibly happening that it doesnt even merit discussion.

 

Well, lets stroll back in history then. Just 2 years ago on deadline day, Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay were involved in a 3 team 6 player deal.

 

In 2004, there were 3 multi-team mid-season deals. One 3 team 5 player deal including Octavio Dotel, Carlos Beltran, John Buck, and Mark Teahen, another was a 3 team 6 player deal involving Ty Wiggington, Kris Benson, and Jose Bautista, and the final deal was a 4 team monster that featured Nomar Garciaparra leaving Boston, and also included SS's Orlando Cabrera and Alex Gonzalez.

 

2002 had a 2 part deal that involved 3 teams and 11 players, including Cliff Floyd, Ryan Dempster, Juan Encarnacion, Carl Pavano and then hot prospect Claudio Vargas. Oddly, Floyd was dealt again 19 days later. That year featured another 3 team 6 player mid-season deal featuring Jeff Weaver, Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Pena, and Ted Lilly.

 

As you can see, multi-team deals do happen in season, and were about due for another. We were very close to having one this week involving Oswalt, Werth, and BJ Upton. They're not common, but one looks necessary for the Brewers to satisfy their needs.

[1e Corbeau]

I like how you're thinking here, X. With reading about the DBacks wanting to move Haren before his next start on Tuesday, I wonder if we could move Fielder, Hart, and maybe McGehee for prospects (MLB ready or otherwise), then flip some of those pieces or some of ours to AZ for Haren. Of course, it wouldn't be to compete this year, but he's locked up through 2012. He does have limited no-trade protection, I believe. Still, the Yankees are offering what seems like an unimpressive package with back-end rotation ceiling and players still a few years away. Plus, the Brewers are in a situation where their payroll (if Hart and Fielder are moved) could be as low as $39M next year, so they don't need AZ to pick up any part of Haren's $33M over 11-12. We could even eat part of Qualls or Snyder, potentially, to reduce the talent going to AZ.

 

Something like Fielder & McGehee to CWS for Hudson, Backham, and Viciedo/Morel; Hart to TB for Wade Davis. If AZ wants two arms and another piece for Haren, you could flip Hudson, and a #3/4-ceiling A ball pitcher (Hecky, Scarpetta, Peralta) plus a fringy bat like Green or Komatsu to AZ. If you take all of Haren's contract responsibility, you might get away with less. If you take any part of Qualls or Snyder, you might be able to substantially downgrade the second arm to an Anundsen/Bucci/Fiers/Lasker/Howell type. Doubtful, sure—but Haren, Yo, Wolf, Davis, Parra would be a heck of an improvement and the cash is there.

[Never Outhustled]

I like how you're thinking here, X. With reading about the DBacks wanting to move Haren before his next start on Tuesday, I wonder if we could move Fielder, Hart, and maybe McGehee for prospects (MLB ready or otherwise), then flip some of those pieces or some of ours to AZ for Haren. Of course, it wouldn't be to compete this year, but he's locked up through 2012. He does have limited no-trade protection, I believe. Still, the Yankees are offering what seems like an unimpressive package with back-end rotation ceiling and players still a few years away. Plus, the Brewers are in a situation where their payroll (if Hart and Fielder are moved) could be as low as $39M next year, so they don't need AZ to pick up any part of Haren's $33M over 11-12. We could even eat part of Qualls or Snyder, potentially, to reduce the talent going to AZ.

 

Ya, the Yankee package supposedly doesn't even include Montero. Like you said, we have the room to take on Qualls , whose a FA after the season, and Snyer, whose owe'd $5.75 million next year, but is actually a pretty decent player. Haren also has an option year for 2013 on his contract. I'm guessing he'd want that picked up to approve a trade if Milwakee is on his no-trade list, which we probably are.

 

 

Also, Zak Greinke is now available. His cost would be more, but he's younger, and will likely be better.

[Invader3K]

I can't imagine what it would take to pry Greinke away from the Royals. Probably start with Rivas, Gamel, Lawrie, and go from there.

[Invader3K]

Six days from the trade deadline, and there doesn't seem to be much going on with regard to Fielder talk. I think the White Sox will stand pat or settle for a lesser back (like Berkman or someone similar). Maybe this is the right move if no teams are willing to give up a good package.

[The Truth]

I can't imagine what it would take to pry Greinke away from the Royals. Probably start with Rivas, Gamel, Lawrie, and go from there.

how many more years does Greinke have before free agency?

[endaround]

2 years at $13.5m

[Robideaux]

I know it isn't going to
happen, but if I'm Doug Melvin, this is my strategy for competing in 2011 and
beyond. Some of the parts are a bit fungible, but the gist of it is to try to
turn Prince, Hart, McGeehee, and Lawrie into Gordon, Beckham, and Greinke.
Depending on how the Brewers feel about the ability of Gamel and Weeks to play
OF, and Cain to hit, you could flip the excess for pitching.

Prince to White Sox for Daniel
Hudson and Gordon Beckham.

Corey Hart to Rays for Wade
Davis

Wade Davis, Daniel Hudson, Carlos
Gomez, Casey Mcgehee, and Brett Lawrie to Royals

for Zach Greinke and Alex Gordon

Move Weeks to outfield or
trade him if you think he can’t hack it defensively in the outfield.

Sign Jason Werth.

C Lucroy

1B Braun

2B Beckham

3B Gordon

SS Escobar

LF Weeks or Gamel

CF Cain or Weeks

RF Werth

P Greinke

P Yo

P Wolf

P ?

P ?

[RockCoCougars]

Six days from the trade deadline, and there doesn't seem to be much going on with regard to Fielder talk. I think the White Sox will stand pat or settle for a lesser back (like Berkman or someone similar). Maybe this is the right move if no teams are willing to give up a good package.

Exactly. Everyone is acting like these guys are going to be free agents and they need to be moved now because they will be gone in two months. With the underwhelming packages the team has been offered for these guys (no one wants to part with pitching, etc.), what makes anyone think that their values are at their highest? Outside of the Rays, none of the other teams (Tigers, White Sox, Giants) mentioned have any prospects of real value that aren't already in the majors. At this point, I'm not interested in a complete rebuild for low minors pitching crapshoots- how much of that do you need?

[nate82]

Six days from the trade deadline, and there doesn't seem to be much going on with regard to Fielder talk. I think the White Sox will stand pat or settle for a lesser back (like Berkman or someone similar). Maybe this is the right move if no teams are willing to give up a good package.

According to Rosenthal Williams is confident in getting Prince or Dunn.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

Six days from the trade deadline, and there doesn't seem to be much going on with regard to Fielder talk. I think the White Sox will stand pat or settle for a lesser back (like Berkman or someone similar). Maybe this is the right move if no teams are willing to give up a good package.

According to Rosenthal Williams is confident in getting Prince or Dunn.

I'm still holding out hope that Dunn is willing to workout an extension with the Nats. It's so important to get another big bat off the market.

[nate82]

I'm still holding out hope that Dunn is willing to workout an extension with the Nats. It's so important to get another big bat off the market.

Well Dunn is somewhat off the market. The Nationals are looking for a return similar to what the Brewers would get if they traded Prince. I don't see that happening for only a half year of Dunn.

[kramnoj]

Everyone is acting like these guys are going to be free agents and they need to be moved now because they will be gone in two months.

 

Everyone? How many exactly are doing this?

 

I think there's a couple of reasons people are excited to talk about these players being traded. It's been a year or so of frustrating baseball, and people want to have something good happen. But some of these people don't want the good thing to be the Brewers winning right now, because they know that Prince will be gone at some point, and indications are that Hart and the Brewers won't come to an agreement. So rather than lose them for potentially nothing at worst, or lower draft picks than were assumed, or even just getting draft picks when the could have been traded for better players, some want to strike while the iron is hot.

 

If we are going to rebuild, or reload, then it's understandable to want to make the transition happen sooner and get on to anticipating building the next run at the playoffs and beyond. The waiting is the hardest part.

[logan82]

We are unlikely to compete next year unless we get good players in trade for Fielder and Hart. Our roster needs to change for us to be competitive again. The roster as it stands is more than one or two players away from being a playoff team. Getting a good return for Hart or Fielder hastens our return to being competitive. That along with most of our impact talent probably not being ready until 2012.

[Hate those Rodents]

Daniel Hudson was atrocious in his start this afternoon for the Sox. It's just one start, but I'd need all three of Hudson, Beckham, and Viciedo at this point. Not sure I even like that deal...