The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 2)

[PrinceEatMeat]

I would love any deal involving Hudson and Viciedo. If we have to throw in Bush or some other starter that's fine. I don't think we'd find a better package than that anywhere else.

[Hate those Rodents]

MLBTR seems to think, if I am reading between the lines correctly, that CWS would deal Hudson and Viciedo for Dunn. If that's the case, Doug had better be talking with Kenny Williams quite a bit. We should be able to get that and something else (and Prince should be much preferred over Dunn by Williams as well).

[nate82]

My thought was I'm skeptical that the Brewers would move Hart or Braun to 1B in-season. Ishikawa could play 1B full time the rest of the season, and if he plays well, which he might playing full time in Milwaukee, he could be spun off in the offseason, with Braun or Hart moving to 1B, and the OF slot filled be Carl Crawford or Jason Werth.

Crawford is going to cost about the same as Prince would in free agency. You know the Yankees are going to target Crawford and Lee this off season. So you better be ready to take on a 7-year $120 million contract with Crawford which is probably right around what Prince is going to get in free agency. As for Werth I would rather resign Hart than sign Werth but ideally I wouldn't want to sign either of them to a long term contract. I believe Werth is in line for a big payday also in free agency somewhere around $12-15 million a year for at least 3 to 4 years.

[TooLiveBrew]

Haudricourt wrote today on his blog that the Brewers had a scout at the Mariners/White Sox game where Daniel Hudson made a start last night; so maybe there is something to the Brewers-ChiSox rumors after all. He also mentions they would probably want Dayan Viciedo (3B who could move to 1B) in a deal.

This is pretty interesting. If it's true that CHA would give Hudson and Viciedo for Dunn, shouldn't be all that hard to get another piece for Prince.

[NievesNoNO]

Ken Rosenthal now says the White Sox arefocused on Dunn and not in on Fielder. I'm kind of disappointed. I guess that doesn't mean things couldn't change.

[Gobias Industries]

Those called 3rd strikes would drive Ozzie crazy.

 

Plus, do you know the guy doesn't even like to play baseball that much? /Ricciardi

 

On a serious note, why would they prefer Dunn over Fielder? Isn't he a FA at the end of the year?

[nate82]

On a serious note, why would they prefer Dunn over Fielder? Isn't he a FA at the end of the year?

I'm guessing the White Sox don't like the money that they would have to give Fielder next year or to resign him. They also may favor Dunn because he is a FA next year.

[rcon14]

On a serious note, why would they prefer Dunn over Fielder? Isn't he a FA at the end of the year?

I'm guessing the White Sox don't like the money that they would have to give Fielder next year or to resign him. They also may favor Dunn because he is a FA next year.

Exactly, the price is lower for Dunn too.

 

[PrinceEatMeat]

Ken Rosenthal now says the White Sox arefocused on Dunn and not in on Fielder. I'm kind of disappointed. I guess that doesn't mean things couldn't change.

Based on his comments about having to give up starting pitching for Fielder and not Dunn, I'm guessing the offer for Dunn won't involve Hudson.

[Tennik]

These things change quickly, but I agree with Rosenthal's assertion that the White Sox and Brewers don't seem to match up. I like Hudson, but it'll take 2-3 high upside minor league pitchers to get the Brewers to move Prince mid season.

[PrinceEatMeat]

People do need to take into account how much Fielder will cost for 2011, not just beyond that. His salary could be very high next season. Probably somewhere around $16 million, and with Boras as his agent, possibly even higher than that. I think that might turn off a team like the White Sox more than anything.

[GAME05]

the Nationals always seem to ask too much for their stars they way they messed up with Soriano. if Fielder moves at all, i bet it will be in the last hour of the deadline. no reason for Melvin not to ask for the world and make other teams sweat. if nobody bites on Fielder now, then just move him in the offseason. plus maybe in the offseason, Melvin will have some room to add in cash to a Fielder trade.

 

don't know why the White Sox would trade something for Dunn when Dye is at least 70% the player that Dunn is and wouldn't cost prospects.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I think I read on MLBTR that the Nationals are pretending he's Ryan Howard in trade negotiations. The harder he is to obtain, obviously, the better our chances of getting a deal done.

 

I just don't see many partners right now with Prince's salary next year coming into play. I just hope we get something decent in return when we do indeed deal him.

[endaround]

I don't see why Fielder's salary next year is a big deal. The White Sox can afford it with Konerko's deal up. Don't get how paying $15m for a $20m player is suddenly a huge issue.

[TooLiveBrew]

the Nationals always seem to ask too much for their stars they way they messed up with Soriano.

They have a different GM now, for whatever that's worth.

don't know why the White Sox would trade something for Dunn when Dye is at least 70% the player that Dunn is and wouldn't cost prospects.

I think it's really easy to overlook just how great a career Adam Dunn has had. His worst season was an .819 OPS in '03, when he missed the last 41 games of the season after spraining his thumb diving for a ball in the outfield. Even if you discount the .948 OPS he posted in his first (partial) big-league season, he's basically OPSed .900 5 times since 2001 (I'm including '08's .898), and is well on his way so far this season. Jermaine Dye has done it twice since 1996, once in 2000 as a 26-yo, and once in '06 in an obvious "career year".

Even if Dye outhit any realistic projection (which I'd guess would be close to the roughly .800 OPS he hit in '09), Dunn still projects to be the better player. I understand the idea of not giving up talent to bring in Dye, but do you honestly think Dye would be able to hit at an '09 level after missing more than half of the season? There's also the possibility that Kenny Williams could work out a contract extension with Dunn, and land a roughly .900 OPS bat for the next three or four seasons.

I think I read on MLBTR that the Nationals are pretending he's Ryan Howard in trade negotiations.

The two are actually very comparable players, so not sure why the Nats shouldn't expect a comparable return (contract differences aside). Both guys are 30, and the main difference btw. the two is that Howard might give you 5-10 more HRs in a season, but Dunn's OBP will be roughly 25 or 30 points higher. Howard is certainly the sexier of the two players, with gaudier RBI totals from playing on far superior offenses, but realistically Dunn is right there with Howard in terms of production.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I would love any deal involving Hudson and Viciedo. If we have to throw in Bush or some other starter that's fine. I don't think we'd find a better package than that anywhere else.

If adding Bush into a deal to replace a young starter that they need to get through the year, that makes a lot of sense.

[Thundercat32]

interesting article just posted up on fangraphs regarding the WSox interests in Adam Dunn. apparently the Nats aren't interested in parting with Dunn for anything approaching a reasonable price. So thats good news for Brewers fans.

 

also, a very interesting article on Ryan Braun's decreased power #'s.

[fondybrewfan]

Doesn't really seem like their is much of a market for Fielder does there? The only things we have seen are reasons not to trade for the guy. At this point I will be pretty shocked if Fielder is trading by the 31st. The way the various articles paint him you would think he was some obese over the hill crackpot.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, people are really downplaying him right now. It's gotten fairly comical.

 

"Well, you know, he's overweight and his dad was done by the time he was 34, and his defense isn't that good...sure he leads the league in home runs, and yeah, he walks a ton...but look at his RBIs...and also his agent is Scott Boras, and we'll only have him for a year and a half..."

[Never Outhustled]

My thought was I'm skeptical that the Brewers would move Hart or Braun to 1B in-season. Ishikawa could play 1B full time the rest of the season, and if he plays well, which he might playing full time in Milwaukee, he could be spun off in the offseason, with Braun or Hart moving to 1B, and the OF slot filled be Carl Crawford or Jason Werth.

Crawford is going to cost about the same as Prince would in free agency. You know the Yankees are going to target Crawford and Lee this off season. So you better be ready to take on a 7-year $120 million contract with Crawford which is probably right around what Prince is going to get in free agency. As for Werth I would rather resign Hart than sign Werth but ideally I wouldn't want to sign either of them to a long term contract. I believe Werth is in line for a big payday also in free agency somewhere around $12-15 million a year for at least 3 to 4 years.

 

You do realize that the Brewers have more than $20 million to spend in free agency next year, right? It'll either be Melvin flushing it on numerous midling pitchers, or we could do something that actually works, and sign a proven top notch position player.

[dadofandrew]

It's very tough to get fair value for Prince without a team giving up a member of their rotation, which no contender is likely to do.

 

This is exactly why Doug says it's tough to move a position player during the season.

[trwi7]

I'm just wondering why we need a major league pitcher currently in a deal for Fielder to make it a fair trade.

[Thundercat32]

trwi7,

 

I'm wondering the exact same thing. I'm thinking that means Melvin is keen on holding onto Hart and making a serious playoff push in '11. I think that'd be the wrong move honestly. My stance is you upgrade your overall talent base as often as possible. Taking a shot at it in a single year is just too short sighted.

[PrinceEatMeat]

trwi7,

 

I'm wondering the exact same thing. I'm thinking that means Melvin is keen on holding onto Hart and making a serious playoff push in '11. I think that'd be the wrong move honestly. My stance is you upgrade your overall talent base as often as possible. Taking a shot at it in a single year is just too short sighted.

I have a problem with this as well. However, as long as he trades Fielder I'll still be ok with it. The reason being is that we at least have a chance at resigning Hart if we choose to, and we could also opt to trade him at next year's deadline if we aren't competing and he continues to play well. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to sell high on him right now. I just don't think it would be the worst thing if we keep him and just trade Fielder.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm still wondering how you guys think we're going to make a playoff push in 2011.

 

Even if we have extra money to spend with all this garbage coming off the books, all our arby guys get a raise, diminishing that. All the money in the world, unless all thrown at one ace pitcher that somehow wants to sign with Milwaukee isn't going to bring any sort of decent rotation here.

 

But the key is how do you find a #2, #3, #4, and #5 starter that isn't garbage? I'd say Wolf and Bush if they pitch well are #5, maybe #4s at best. We're not going to go anywhere by signing guys, and I am pretty sure when Melvin does he just looks at ERA and doesn't look at any statistic further than that when trying to pair the pitcher with our awful defense.

 

Personally, we COULD sign Hart, but I would prefer not to. I fear him falling off the cliff statistically and effort-wise seconds after inking the dotted line.