The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 2)

[Never Outhustled]

Like you often mention about the Brewers, the Giants can go sign a bat in the OF like Werth.

The difference is the Brewers actually have money available to do that. Have you looked at the Giants payroll commitments for next year? They're going to be pretty tight. They can buyout Renteria, but Uribe is also a FA, so they'll need to keep 1 of them, or add a SS. Sanchez, Cody Ross, and breakout player Andres Torres are arby eligible. Huff is a FA and needs to be retained. Cain and Lincecum get big raises.

 

The Giants will have to seriously consider moving an expensive pitcher if they want to add offense. Top FAs are out of the question for them.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wow, I'd forgotten just how badly the Zito & Rowand contracts have hamstrung that club. I would imagine they'll buy out Renteria, & non-tender Ross, but you're right. They don't have much payroll room at all.

[Invader3K]

Cain had an option for 2012, and that was re-done in spring training. He now is a signed player through 2012. He'd be a good get for Fielder.

 

Good catch. I actually did check on Cot's and completely missed that he was signed for 2012.

 

I still don't think SF will deal him. It seems like if a Fielder/Cain swap was going to happen, it would have already. Still, having him for two seasons would make such a trade much more attractive for the Brewers.

 

You are also probably right that the Giants don't have a ton of payroll flexibility, so maybe a trade is possible.

[RockCoCougars]

You have to consider the fact that Lincecum is going to be a free agent after 2013. I would imagine if the Giants want to keep him they will have to pay him big time in 2012 as well. Combine this with the fact that they will be paying Barry Zito $18 million or so in 2012, I would think that they may pull the trigger on a a Fielder/Cain deal just for payroll flexibility as Prince will be off the books after next season. If they do an extension on Lincecum before 2012, with Zito's $19 million and Cain's $15 million, they would be over $50 million for three pitchers- and that's not counting what Sanchez would get in arbitration (according to my sources, he won't hit free agency until after 2012, but I could be wrong). With Bumgarner in the picture as well, I just don't see how the Giants won't be forced to move a pictcher.

[paul253]

I think Cain for Fielder would be a good trade for both teams. If I were Milwaukee, I'd look to extend him 2 years right away though. Cain and Gallardo for 3 more years would look really good, especially with Rivas and Rogers coming up.

[JohnBriggs12]

Or they could just re-sign Aubrey Huff & keep Cain

Huff figures to at least double his salary (from $3 to $6 million), but I agree with your premise. They won't give up Cain for one year of Fielder. Besides, their offense isn't that bad. They are in first place with it. Posey is a stud. Had Sandoval hit anywhere near like he did in 09, they would have been better than average offensively. He figures to bounce back off this year.

 

I still say the team to watch is the Angels with regard to Fielder with Ervin Santana the logical match. They may make a run at Konerko first, but if that fails, they'll likely be asking about Fielder.

[colbyjack]

Even if Huff moves on, the Giants may be less likely to be interested in Fielder with the development of Brandon Belt, who soared through high A and AA this season putting up huge numbers, finishing the year at AAA.

 

I still like how Detroit matches up with the Brewers. They have some young pitching, a few pricey players that will come off the books this offseason (Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez - $15M option with no buyout and he's not going to reach the games started/plate appearance numbers for it to automatically kick in) and they aren't shy about dealing with Boras (Damon, Ordonez, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Andy Oliver, Jacob Turner).

[thebruce44]

JohnBriggs12[/b]]

TooLiveBrew[/b]]Or they could just re-sign Aubrey Huff & keep Cain

Besides, their offense isn't that bad. They are in first place with it. Posey is a stud. Had Sandoval hit anywhere near like he did in 09, they would have been better than average offensively. He figures to bounce back off this year.

Because they are in first despite their offense doesn't mean it isn't bad. I don't think its terrible, but most metrics would have them near the bottom 1/3 of baseball offensively. No matter how you look at it, they are certainly below average which doesn't bode well year in year out for playoff appearances no matter how great your pitching is.

 

 

[Hammer]

I am in Michigan for the evening and was listening to some of the local Tigers sports radio this afternoon. The topic was "most disappointing part of 2010" and one of the radio hosts mentioned the fact that Detroit didn't "finish the Fielder trade at the deadline" was his biggest disappointment. I know that they were thrown out there as a possibility but was a deal really that close? He also said that with the amount of money that the Tigers have coming off the books at the end of 2010 they would probably make another strong push for Prince.

[ramssuperbowl99]

I am in Michigan for the evening and was listening to some of the local Tigers sports radio this afternoon. The topic was "most disappointing part of 2010" and one of the radio hosts mentioned the fact that Detroit didn't "finish the Fielder trade at the deadline" was his biggest disappointment. I know that they were thrown out there as a possibility but was a deal really that close? He also said that with the amount of money that the Tigers have coming off the books at the end of 2010 they would probably make another strong push for Prince.

If Jacob Turner could headline that deal it'd be great. The nice thing is that we wouldn't have to throw them much salary and they aren't afraid to trade their biggest and best prospects (see Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller).

They are a good fit, as are the Rays, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Red Sox, and maybe the White Sox.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Given their owner's recent comments on the Rays' finances, I don't see them as a fit anymore. Team-building-wise, they're a perfect fit. But unless Melvin can orchestrate some mega-deal, Fielder's '11 salary doesn't fit for them at all.

[ListachRides]

I imagine either Oliver or Porcello would be the headliner in a deal with the Tigers. Melvin has shown a strong preference for MLB-readiness, and I doubt the Tigers would want to part with Turner.

[logan82]

Given their owner's recent comments on the Rays' finances, I don't see them as a fit anymore. Team-building-wise, they're a perfect fit. But unless Melvin can orchestrate some mega-deal, Fielder's '11 salary doesn't fit for them at all.

I see no reason we couldn't pick up most of Fielder's salary if the return is good enough.

 

Your signature is not working. Unfortunate it is.

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I see no reason we couldn't pick up most of Fielder's salary if the return is good enough.

 

That's true. Didn't think of that.

[trwi7]

I think the chances of Attanasio picking up a significant portion of Fielder's salary to produce for another team next year is about as likely as him increasing the payroll to a half a billion dollars next year.

[colbyjack]

I imagine either Oliver or Porcello would be the headliner in a deal with the Tigers. Melvin has shown a strong preference for MLB-readiness, and I doubt the Tigers would want to part with Turner.

 

Porcello isn't going anywhere, and Turner's upside is greater than Oliver's. Turner's fairly polished for a prep arm, even if he's a few levels below that of Oliver. I do agree that Melvin typically prefers MLB-readiness, but I really hope he takes the best player he can get for Fielder and not a collection of lesser MLB-ready talent. I do like Oliver, just not as much as Turner. Casey Crosby is a dark-horse depending on how he is recovering from injury (and he obviously wouldn't be the cog of the deal because of that).

 

They are a good fit, as are the Rays, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Red Sox, and maybe the White Sox.

 

The Rays are a good fit on paper, but not realistically. As noted a couple of posts before yours, the Giants may not be as obvious as a candidate if they re-sign Huff and given Brandon Belt's emergence as a prospect. The Mets have Ike Davis seemingly set at 1B for years to come, and the Red Sox likely wouldn't go overboard to get involved unless Youkilis slides back to 3B next season. The Mariners may be intent on developing recently acquired Justin Smoak as their 1B of the future.

 

Others have mentioned the Rangers and Angels as obvious trade partners, and I think the Orioles could be up to swing a deal to try and make some noise. The Dodgers could use some offense even if their system doesn't seem to have the necessary pieces to work with, and you can never rule out a team like the A's or Blue Jays for a surprise. The White Sox as noted would continue to remain an obvious suitor, especially if they lose Konerko to FA. Although I'm not sure what they have left in their system.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the chances of Attanasio picking up a significant portion of Fielder's salary to produce for another team next year is about as likely as him increasing the payroll to a half a billion dollars next year.

 

I'd like to think Mark is a smart enough investor that he could see the wisdom in essentially buying more and/or higher quality players in return for Prince, rather than settling for an average return.

[logan82]

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I think the chances of Attanasio picking up a significant portion of Fielder's salary to produce for another team next year is about as likely as him increasing the payroll to a half a billion dollars next year

Look at it this way. You will probably have to pay about $4m+ a year for an average free agent pitcher. Doug Davis cost us $5m+ this year. If we can get even 2 league average pitchers for Fielder we are looking at least close to $8m in savings over paying a free agent. Fielder plus his entire salary is easily covered by the savings of two average pitchers at league minimum over 3 years. If we can get some top of the rotation talent, that is easily worth more than one year of Fielder in money and talent.

[trwi7]

I understand why we should do it and I agree with doing it. I just don't think Mark A. sees it that way. Maybe it's just because I'm setting my expectations really low for a Fielder return, but I don't see it happening.

[Never Outhustled]

I imagine either Oliver or Porcello would be the headliner in a deal with the Tigers. Melvin has shown a strong preference for MLB-readiness, and I doubt the Tigers would want to part with Turner.

 

Porcello isn't going anywhere, and Turner's upside is greater than Oliver's. Turner's fairly polished for a prep arm, even if he's a few levels below that of Oliver. I do agree that Melvin typically prefers MLB-readiness, but I really hope he takes the best player he can get for Fielder and not a collection of lesser MLB-ready talent. I do like Oliver, just not as much as Turner. Casey Crosby is a dark-horse depending on how he is recovering from injury (and he obviously wouldn't be the cog of the deal because of that).

 

I would hope this becomes a 3 way deal so we can get what we really need. While Melvin doesn't even seek out 3 team deals, Dave Dombrowski has no problem getting them done. Melvin will ask for a MLB pitcher, and Dombrowski will go find one. Greinke would be best, with the Brewers also throwing in some prospects, just not our top guys.

[logan82]

I understand why we should do it and I agree with doing it. I just don't think Mark A. sees it that way. Maybe it's just because I'm setting my expectations really low for a Fielder return, but I don't see it happening.

I could see Attanasio keeping Fielder around because he thinks we can be a playoff team next year with just a few pitching additions.

[nate82]

I could see Attanasio keeping Fielder around because he thinks we can be a playoff team next year with just a few pitching additions.

Which wouldn't be a bad move on the Brewers part depending on the pitchers the Brewers acquire from another trade. I would assume in that situation Gamel replaces McGehee at 3B or Gamel is traded for some pitching. Something like Gamel for Nolasco could be a possibility. A McGehee trade to the Rangers, Tigers, Twins, Red Sox, or Braves could yield a better return. If the Red Sox don't resign Beltre they would need a new 3B if Youkilis is not going to be playing 3B that is but that also opens a hole at 1B where Prince could be added into that spot. I believe the Braves, Tigers, and the Twins make the most sense for a McGehee trade with the Braves having the biggest interest in trading for McGehee. With Jones possibly retiring or moving over to 1B the Braves will need a new 3B to replace Jones with and I am not sure that the Braves have any minor league player who could step in and replace Jones they have Freeman but he will be at 1B and that won't be for another two or three years from now. The Twins definitely need a 3B and McGehee will be cheap for a few more years so that makes sense for them and the Tigers need a 3B with Inge getting older who really isn't a 3B at all.

 

Depending on how free agency goes and if the Red Sox are not able to resign Beltre you could see some high demand on both McGehee, Gamel, and Fielder.

[logan82]

My hope is that Fielder and McGehee are the ones to go while Weeks getting an extension. With Gamel and Lawrie replacing McGehee and Fielder. I would not be surprised at all to see Weeks go though. I feel that the team really likes McGehee though and he will stick around. I don't' value McGehee much because of his age and minor league track record. I am still waiting for him to drop off. He will also be 32 by the time he is eligible for free agency.

[colbyjack]

I would hope this becomes a 3 way deal so we can get what we really need. While Melvin doesn't even seek out 3 team deals, Dave Dombrowski has no problem getting them done. Melvin will ask for a MLB pitcher, and Dombrowski will go find one. Greinke would be best, with the Brewers also throwing in some prospects, just not our top guys.

 

The only problem with that is finding a team that would want/need Fielder more than Greinke. Nothing against Fielder, but if they have and are willing to deal prospects that could pry Greinke away from Kansas City, more than likely they're going to try and keep him for themselves.

[Never Outhustled]

I would hope this becomes a 3 way deal so we can get what we really need. While Melvin doesn't even seek out 3 team deals, Dave Dombrowski has no problem getting them done. Melvin will ask for a MLB pitcher, and Dombrowski will go find one. Greinke would be best, with the Brewers also throwing in some prospects, just not our top guys.

 

The only problem with that is finding a team that would want/need Fielder more than Greinke. Nothing against Fielder, but if they have and are willing to deal prospects that could pry Greinke away from Kansas City, more than likely they're going to try and keep him for themselves.

 

True. Like I said, the Brewers will have to throw in prospects too, because Grienke is far more valuable than Fielder. Detroit will have to clean out their system just to get Fielder, I don't see them having enough to get Greinke, even if they wanted to.