The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 2)

[colbyjack]

Tampa is the perfect fit, and it will be interesting to see what they do this offseason. It wouldn't surprise me to see them get Fielder for one year, giving up a couple of their young and immensely talented young arms to do so. They may be constricted by what they can do financially, but Carl Crawford may be off the books, and they could use a boost of power in their lineup despite being 3rd in the AL in runs scored. Carlos Pena has been just ok this year and who is their DH? Wily Aybar? Brad Hawpe? Hank Blalock? Rocco Baldelli?

 

I think for them to get involved it depends what they do in the postseason. If they bow out in the first round and have problems scoring runs I could see them making a bold move this offseason. Plus, I believe both Crawford and Pena are free agents this offseason, which would clear some money even if they aren't a realstic suitor for Fielder past 2011.

 

Another team that I could see get in the mix is the Tigers, especially if they don't pick up Ordonez' option and/or re-sign Damon. They have a few nice young arms (Andy Oliver, Jacob Turner and even Casey Crosby, who has missed most of the year due to injury) and may even be in the mix signing him past next year.

[logan82]

I would have no problem at all picking up Fielder's contract for 2011 if we got 2 young arms back. We have a surplus of money and it seems better to me to spend it on young pitching(in essence) than any of the available FA pitchers. The thing that makes it tough is Fielder doesn't currently have a contract for next year so we would have to wait until we have him under contract.

[Never Outhustled]

 

We have a surplus of money and it seems better to me to spend it on young pitching(in essence) than any of the available FA pitchers.

Plus, we have the money to do both, or to sign a bigtime FA bat.

[Never Outhustled]

The Rays are the perfect fit (they need LH power & have pitching prospects galore)

I agree, but I don't tink Tampa agrees. They lack power because they prefer small ball, ans hitting to contact.

 

I continue to think Texas and Toronto make the most sense.

[trwi7]

They lack power because they prefer small ball, ans hitting to contact.

Pretty sure that's not true since they lead the AL in strikeouts by a considerable margin.

[endaround]

Yep it has more to do with Pena and Zorbrsit having down seasons compared to last year.

[interestobserver]

The Brewers waited a year too long with Fielder. There's a lot of good young first basemen coming up and the big money teams don't need one. Plus with Howard's contract and Fielder's decline in ops, his value has declined. A year ago, they could have gotten Ike Davis and Mejia from the Mets or Freeman and possibly Teheran from the Braves. Now, neither team looks to be in the market.

 

Tampa has never shown an inclination to take on high salaried players a year from FA. They look to dump these guys, getting good value from Kazmir, among others.

[TooLiveBrew]

While you're right that Tampa hasn't done that much in the past (Burrell is an exception as a higher-priced addition), adding Fielder for 2011 would actually make a lot of sense for them. They're going to have a big-time need at 1B, and are definitely in a win-now position. They can let Prince walk in FA & take a comp pick or two for him. That would fit their m.o. to me, at least.

 

Pena has only been 1.1 WAR so far this season, while Prince sits at 4.0. I realize it's not as simple as plugging in last year's numbers for next year's projections... however, Prince would not only be an elite hitter for the Rays, he'd most likely be a big upgrade for them as well. Fielder's wOBA from May through present-day is over .400, and if he continues his torrid September, he'll post his 3rd season of a .400 or better wOBA (out of 5 full seasons). Pena has done that just once, but I realize he's not TB's only other option.

[LouisEly]

If Baseball Reference is correct, Tampa has ~$29M coming off the books in Pena, Crawford, and Burrell alone. If they lose Soriano to free agency that's another $7.5M. So they could let Pena, Crawford, and Burrell walk and offer Soriano arby and let him walk and that's ~$36M in payroll coming off the books plus comp pick(s) for Soriano.

[ELCABALLO45]

The Brewers waited a year too long with Fielder. There's a lot of good young first basemen coming up and the big money teams don't need one. Plus with Howard's contract and Fielder's decline in ops, his value has declined. A year ago, they could have gotten Ike Davis and Mejia from the Mets or Freeman and possibly Teheran from the Braves. Now, neither team looks to be in the market.

 

Tampa has never shown an inclination to take on high salaried players a year from FA. They look to dump these guys, getting good value from Kazmir, among others.

Prince Fielder is currently OPSing .903 coming into today. That is good for 7th in the NL.

Since June 1st he is OPSing .953.

 

 

[Invader3K]

With how Daniel Hudson has been pitching for the D-Backs, it has kicked up some criticism again. Tom Haudricourt with a comment: http://twitter.com/Haudricourt/statuses/24534964347

 

Is Doug Melvin going to regret not pulling the trigger on a Hudson for Fielder swap? Does he already?

[JohnBriggs12]

With how Daniel Hudson has been pitching for the D-Backs, it has kicked up some criticism again. Tom Haudricourt with a comment: http://twitter.com/Haudricourt/statuses/24534964347

 

Is Doug Melvin going to regret not pulling the trigger on a Hudson for Fielder swap? Does he already?

Those who've read my posts know that I've been very dubious of what Fielder would bring back. When I heard on Chicago radio in early July that the Sox had interest in Fielder, my first and only thought was Daniel Hudson, who fit every description of what the Brewers needed. He was young, he was major league ready, he had good stuff and he had success in the minors. I had seen him pitch last year when he was called up in September and really liked him. My thought at the time was the Sox would be the ones that wouldn't make that deal. I would have made it in a heartbeat and posted to that effect at the time.

 

I could not believe it when I read the Brewers turned it down because they projected him no higher than a 3rd or 4th starter. Then I got to thinking about it. Hudson wasn't a first rounder. He was a 5th rounder. A lot of scouts including those employed by the Brewers missed the boat on this guy just 2 years ago. Their egos and need to protect their reputations aren't going to let them admit that they missed badly on a guy just 2 years later. The bottom line is Melvin relied on the wrong people.

[Invader3K]

Well, you may be right Briggs. Anyway, I remember reading that the White Sox may have been willing to throw in a bat to "sweeten" the deal a bit. I don't know if that was ever confirmed or not, but I don't remember it being framed as "Hudson for Fielder, straight up" during the trade deadline.

 

If Melvin can't get a pitcher back at least as good as Hudson for Fielder this winter (or at the least another player of similar value, pitcher or not), it's going to be pretty disappointing.

[sveumrules]

Fielder for Hudson straight up? Maybe Tim but not Daniel.

 

If Daniel Hudson is really the best you can get for a year and two months of Fielder, I'll gladly take the elite offensive production in 2011 and two picks in 2012.

[endaround]

Hudson has pitched well but not sub 2 ERA well. He has a 95% strand rate. Narveson has pitched basically as well in August and Septemember (albeit in fewer innings).

[thebruce44]

With how Daniel Hudson has been pitching for the D-Backs, it has kicked up some criticism again. Tom Haudricourt with a comment: http://twitter.com/Haudricourt/statuses/24534964347

 

Is Doug Melvin going to regret not pulling the trigger on a Hudson for Fielder swap? Does he already?

Those who've read my posts know that I've been very dubious of what Fielder would bring back. When I heard on Chicago radio in early July that the Sox had interest in Fielder, my first and only thought was Daniel Hudson, who fit every description of what the Brewers needed. He was young, he was major league ready, he had good stuff and he had success in the minors. I had seen him pitch last year when he was called up in September and really liked him. My thought at the time was the Sox would be the ones that wouldn't make that deal. I would have made it in a heartbeat and posted to that effect at the time.

 

I could not believe it when I read the Brewers turned it down because they projected him no higher than a 3rd or 4th starter. Then I got to thinking about it. Hudson wasn't a first rounder. He was a 5th rounder. A lot of scouts including those employed by the Brewers missed the boat on this guy just 2 years ago. Their egos and need to protect their reputations aren't going to let them admit that they missed badly on a guy just 2 years later. The bottom line is Melvin relied on the wrong people.

 

Yes, the most logical reason the Brewers passed on Hudson is because of Melvin and their scouts egos. Give me a break.

[GAME05]

Fielder for Hudson straight up? Maybe Tim but not Daniel.

 

If Daniel Hudson is really the best you can get for a year and two months of Fielder, I'll gladly take the elite offensive production in 2011 and two picks in 2012.

well said, and i completely agree. not to mention that we could get a guy like Daniel Hudson at the 2011 trading deadline, too. plus no matter what players we get for Fielder, we're probably accepting some drop in production in the short-term just because it will take the Hudsons of the world a few years in the Majors to develop.

if a #3 pitcher is all we can get for Fielder in the offseason, then i think we're better off taking the chance that Rogers or some other young starter will have a good season to make us into playoff contenders. the addition of an ok starter won't balance out the offensive loss.

 

[ramssuperbowl99]

Daniel Hudson is a #3/#4 starter. The Brewers will have plenty of those from their system, and even more when you project 2 1st round picks in the top 15 from the star-studded 2011 draft. We don't need any more average starters, we need impact talent.

The Rays make perfect sense. Granted, they are going to be slashing payroll considerably, but I'd be willing to pay most, if not all of the Brewers salary to get a deal done. The Rays get 2 compensation picks, another year to develop their 1B of the future (whoever that may be), and they can assemble their best team in franchise history. The Brewers need impact arms for 2012, which is when we have a legitimate playoff shot again. That means guys like Hellickson (who is probably off the table), Davis, Moore, McGee, Colome, etc. etc. are who we should be targeting. As much as Matt Garza makes sense short term, he won't be the #2 to Yovani that we need.

Since Prince will likely go to arbitration, I'd offer:

Prince Fielder + $ (the number being the Brewers arb bid) for Davis, Moore and 1 high ceiling guys (Wikin Rodriguez or Alex Colome (if we are lucky?))

As for the Brewers waiting too long - Ike Davis wasn't going to get a Fielder deal anyway and the the Rays wouldn't have been interested a year ago, what with Burrell and Pena under team control. I'd much rather have the Rays as suitors than the Braves.

[Kelbysdaddy]

i cant believe how many people think hudson would be a good return in a 1 for 1 swap of fielder, when during the exact same couple weeks just as many people thought the crew could have gotten mike minor straight up for corey hart.

[RockCoCougars]

I love watching the Giants struggle to score runs. Hopefully they continue to do so, and miss the playoffs, losing a lot of 3-1 and 2-1 games in the process. Serves them right for not making a better offer for one of the Brewers bats. Stockpiling pitching is nice, but in baseball the name of the game is scoring runs. This isn't football where your defense can set your offense up, and even put some points on the board. Lopsided teams will always have a tough time winning in baseball. If the Giants miss the playoffs this year, you can bet they will be seeking a big bat, and coincidentally, Prince may be the biggest bat out there. That said, hopefully the Giants are more understanding of the fact that you have to give to get. Cain for Fielder....let's get it done.

[TooLiveBrew]

Or they could just re-sign Aubrey Huff & keep Cain

[Invader3K]

I love watching the Giants struggle to score runs. Hopefully they continue to do so, and miss the playoffs, losing a lot of 3-1 and 2-1 games in the process. Serves them right for not making a better offer for one of the Brewers bats. Stockpiling pitching is nice, but in baseball the name of the game is scoring runs. This isn't football where your defense can set your offense up, and even put some points on the board. Lopsided teams will always have a tough time winning in baseball. If the Giants miss the playoffs this year, you can bet they will be seeking a big bat, and coincidentally, Prince may be the biggest bat out there. That said, hopefully the Giants are more understanding of the fact that you have to give to get. Cain for Fielder....let's get it done.

I wouldn't be excited getting Cain for Fielder at this point. He's a free agent after next season. I would ask the Giants to give up Bumgarner or another guy with more years of control left, or go pound sand.

That said, I too am hoping the Giants miss the playoffs.

[Never Outhustled]

I wouldn't be excited getting Cain for Fielder at this point. He's a free agent after next season.

Cain had an option for 2012, and that was re-done in spring training. He now is a signed player through 2012. He'd be a good get for Fielder.

 

Or they could just re-sign Aubrey Huff & keep Cain

How does keeping the same team improve their offense? Huff has played half his games in the OF this year, so they could keep him and add Fielder.

[TooLiveBrew]

How does keeping the same team improve their offense?

 

How does moving a good pitcher for a good hitter (at a position where offense isn't hard to find) make their team better? Huff has been worth 5 WAR so far this season, Cain 4, Fielder almost 4. Like you often mention about the Brewers, the Giants can go sign a bat in the OF like Werth. I just think moving Cain would be counter-productive for them, or spinning their wheels at best.

[nate82]

How does keeping the same team improve their offense?

 

How does moving a good pitcher for a good hitter (at a position where offense isn't hard to find) make their team better? Huff has been worth 5 WAR so far this season, Cain 4, Fielder almost 4. Like you often mention about the Brewers, the Giants can go sign a bat in the OF like Werth. I just think moving Cain would be counter-productive for them, or spinning their wheels at best.

This all depends on how desperate the Giants get. Plus Sabean has been burned with his recent free agent bat acquisitions so he maybe leery in picking up a bat in free agency. I agree though I don't believe the Giants will trade Cain maybe Bumgarner but not Cain and I am not even confident in that as a possibility.

 

If the Dodgers didn't have such a big financial mess right now with their ownership I would put them above the Giants as being a serious bidder for Prince though I'm not sure if the Dodgers would give up Kershaw or Billingsley for Prince though I wouldn't be surprised if they did. The Rangers may still be in play for next year along with the Mariners, Red Sox, White Sox, and the Tigers.

 

I think the team that gets Prince will give us some low level prospects who will then be flipped to get someone like a Greinke or a Nolasco.

 

If the Rays would trade for Prince I wonder if a Garza for Prince deal could be done though I would prefer Colome and Moore over Garza for Prince. I would pay nearly all of Prince's salary for next year if the Brewers could get Moore and Colome from the Rays. I would then flip either Moore or Colome plus a bat for Greinke.