The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 2)

[paul253]

Yeah but what free agents are out there that we can afford and will improve the team enough to make the playoffs? Cliff Lee is just about the only guy I can see who will actually allow us to legitimately compete for a playoff spot, and getting him is going to be a chore, to say the least.

[Never Outhustled]

The deal that I think will happen is Fieldet to Texas for CJ Wilson. Wilson, like Fielder, is a FA aftert next season, which matches up their value perfectly. Texas gets to keep the young pitching they have, and we get an Ace caliber pitcher. Combine that with dealing McGehee for a 2nd pitcher and signing a major FA bat, and The Brewers would be contenders.

 

That would be terrible. One year of a guy who isn't even an ace and whose innings jumped by a tremendous amount this year.

 

.

 

Wilson has a 3.10 ERA despite pitching his home games in the best hitters park in the AL. He's more WAR this year than Fielder. The innings jump risk is a completely unproven theory. I don't believe in it, and niether do the Brewers.

 

 

 

 

I would rather take the two picks for Fielder.

On a team with excess position players that is desperate for pitching, you keep Fielder and take the picks instead of trading for an equal value pitcher who you would get the same picks for if you couldn't extend him? I don't think that is a sound plan.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wilson's had good results this season, but I'm not as convinced as you are that he's the real deal. His BABIP, LD%, and HR/FB & are all low enough that I'm leery he could repeat this season's success. An xFIP of 4.28 isn't bad, but it's certainly not ace material -- it's basically what Randy Wolf posted from '07-'09. Everything about Wilson's season screams career year to me.

[thebruce44]

The deal that I think will happen is Fieldet to Texas for CJ Wilson. Wilson, like Fielder, is a FA aftert next season, which matches up their value perfectly. Texas gets to keep the young pitching they have, and we get an Ace caliber pitcher. Combine that with dealing McGehee for a 2nd pitcher and signing a major FA bat, and The Brewers would be contenders.

 

That would be terrible. One year of a guy who isn't even an ace and whose innings jumped by a tremendous amount this year.

 

.

 

Wilson has a 3.10 ERA despite pitching his home games in the best hitters park in the AL. He's more WAR this year than Fielder. The innings jump risk is a completely unproven theory. I don't believe in it, and niether do the Brewers.

Oh boy, where to start.

 

First, I would love to see any kind of evidence you can find on why the Brewers don't believe in the "innings jump risk" as you put it. I wonder why they limited Yo's innings last year since they don't believe in it.

 

Second, I am pretty surprised someone would use ERA and WAR in the same post. The only reason to do that would be to further help your argument, since if you bothered to look deeper you would realize Wilson has been aided by a BABIP of .262 while his strikeouts are down and his walks up from being a reliever. As TooLiveBrew said, everything about his season screams career year, and even then it is not ace caliber as you alleged.

 

Third, Wilson has more WAR this year than Prince? Are you using Baseball Reference's crap calculations instead of Fangraphs? Wilson has 3.8 WAR this year (good no doubt) but Prince is up to 4.0 now and will likely keep adding to that while Wilson will most likely tire as he nears 200 innings. Add to that, their total WAR over the last 5 years (2006-2010 when both of them started being MLB players for good) and its not even close: Prince - 20.2 | Wilson - 6.6.

 

I'm sorry, I don't really think your trade proposal is likely or makes sense for either side. No reason to argue with me by making stuff up, you are not going to change my opinion or anyone else's that way.

[sveumrules]

How about the A's as a potential trading partner? They have plenty of young pitching, no power whatsoever to speak of and Beane has rolled the dice in similar situations with Holliday/Sheets in recent sesaons.

[nate82]

CJ Wilson as the main part of a trade is not a great idea. I wouldn't be mad if that is what the Brewers got as the main return but the Brewers better be getting back another prospect in return. I wonder if the Dodgers would do a deal of Billingsley and Loney for Fielder, Parra, Gomez, and Peralta/Braddock. I believe this deal would be rather fair value wise for the Brewers and the Dodgers.

 

The Dodgers would receive the power bat that they would need to replace Manny. I am just not confident in the Dodgers trading Billingsley away without getting at least one prospect and that is why I added Braddock/Peralta to the deal. This would definitely fix the pitching problem for the Brewers and it would definitely fix the Dodgers problems of needing a power bat. This could also become a three team deal with Loney/McGehee going to another team for some other prospects going to the Brewers and the Dodgers that would remove Peralta/Braddock from the trade though.

 

I could see a Rangers, Brewers, and Dodgers trade working out where the Rangers would receive Loney/McGehee and send Wilmer Font and Kasey Kiker to the Dodgers/Brewers. The Brewers get Billingsley and Font and the Dodgers receive Fielder, Parra, Gomez, Kiker, and a player to be named later.

 

A rotation of Gallardo and Billingsley would be a good 1-2 punch for the next few years. I also believe the Dodgers would then resign Prince to a long term contract.

[And That]

I just came over here to post the same thing, sveumrules. This seems like exactly the kind of move Billy Beane would make. I don't have a firm grasp on the A's system, though a package based around Tyson Ross and Daric Barton might work. I don't think Barton is arby-eligible yet, which might make him less likely to be traded.

[Never Outhustled]

First, I would love to see any kind of evidence you can find on why the Brewers don't believe in the "innings jump risk" as you put it.

Exhibit A: Mark Rogers. I don't need to go any further.

[nate82]

First, I would love to see any kind of evidence you can find on why the Brewers don't believe in the "innings jump risk" as you put it.

Exhibit A: Mark Rogers. I don't need to go any further.

Exhibit B: Amaury Rivas shut down for the rest of the year due to high innings. I don't need to go any further.

[thebruce44]

First, I would love to see any kind of evidence you can find on why the Brewers don't believe in the "innings jump risk" as you put it.

Exhibit A: Mark Rogers. I don't need to go any further.

Exhibit B: Amaury Rivas shut down for the rest of the year due to high innings. I don't need to go any further.

 

Exhibit C: Mark Rodgers pitched 91 innings the year he was drafted. The next year he pitched 98.2. This year he is at 116. Wait, what exactly were you trying to prove again?

[Never Outhustled]

Exhibit C: Mark Rodgers pitched 91 innings the year he was drafted. The next year he pitched 98.2. This year he is at 116. Wait, what exactly were you trying to prove again?

That's funny. You conveniently left out a few years there. Rogers jumped from 64 innings last year to 116 and counting this year. Thats a 52 inning increase, and he's not even done yet.

 

 

Exhibit B: Amaury Rivas shut down for the rest of the year due to high innings. I don't need to go any further.

This is funny too. Are you really telling me the 8 inning increase Rivas had this year over last year has caused the Brewers to decide to shut him down? 8 innings? Try again.

[thebruce44]

Exhibit C: Mark Rodgers pitched 91 innings the year he was drafted. The next year he pitched 98.2. This year he is at 116. Wait, what exactly were you trying to prove again?

That's funny. You conveniently left out a few years there. Rogers jumped from 64 innings last year to 116 and counting this year. Thats a 52 inning increase, and he's not even done yet.

Or maybe I am saying that he is expected to throw around 125 innings this year since he was already built up in the past. He is in somewhat uncharted territory just like Yo, so if going strong the organization will continue to build him up to the level he should be at.

 

I know you are out to prove a point, reason be damned, but surly you can see the difference between just jumping 51 innings and Rogers' situation. Its similar to Yo, who the Brewers built back up based on where he was before injury, cutting him off when his effectivness started to fade.

 

Regardless, if in your mind Rogers' situation indicates the Brewers don't believe in the "innings jump risk" then I strongly disagree with your reasoning and conclusion and I think most people would.

 

In regards to C.J. Wilson, he has thrown 177 innings so far after throwing 73 innings (+104 IP) last year and averaging around 50 since joining the bigs. In the minors he did get to 136 IP 8 years ago, but that is still a monumental jump I wouldn't want a pitcher on the Brewers to make.

[Never Outhustled]

Or maybe I am saying that he is expected to throw around 125 innings this year since he was already built up in the past. He is in somewhat uncharted territory just like Yo, so if going strong the organization will continue to build him up to the level he should be at.

He missed over 2 years. You don't just pick up where you left off after 2 shoulder surgeries.

 

 

In regards to C.J. Wilson, he has thrown 177 innings so far after throwing 73 innings (+104 IP) last year and averaging around 50 since joining the bigs.

Wilson is doing the same thing Ryan Dempster did a few years ago. When is that going to catch up to him? Wilson has actually gotten better as the season wears on. Since the all-star break he has a 2.67 ERA with 63 K in 64 innings. Thats an awesome K rate for a starter.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wilson is doing the same thing Ryan Dempster did a few years ago

 

Not a great comparison, though, aside from the RP -> SP change. Dempster went over 200 IP for three consecutive seasons ('00-'02). He had elbow issues in '03 & '04, then came back as a RP. He's had no problem getting back to 200 IP/season form since he regained his health.

 

Wilson, on the other hand, has never even been remotely close to his current season's IP totals. As of today, he's at 177, and the closest he ever got to that was 136 IP in '05 between high-A & AA. Between the large innings increase, & the concern I mentioned earlier about him having a career year, I don't want the Brewers to target C.J. as the main piece in a deal for Fielder.

[Never Outhustled]

Not a great comparison, though, aside from the RP -> SP change. Dempster went over 200 IP for three consecutive seasons ('00-'02). He had elbow issues in '03 & '04, then came back as a RP.

The idea behind the inning increase theory is the increase from year to year. What a player did several years earlier is irrelevant. Its a shoulder, not a car, you don't just break it in and then its good forever. Once a player pitches less the shoulder needs to be re-strengthened, according to the theory. Myself, I think every pitcher is an individual, and as long as pitch counts are adhered to, all the necessary precaution have been taken, when dealing with matured players. We're not talking about 20 years olds here.

[TooLiveBrew]

If we're talking an over/under on C.J. Wilson of 175 IP for 2011, I'd definitely bet on the under. It sounds like you would be more comfortable betting on the over. I think Dempster is a complete exception, as opposed to the rule. I understand that he had to strengthen his arm again, but I do think it means something that he had thrown 200 IP in his past, even if it was only the experience in having done so.

[twobrewers]

I'm not 100% against the CJ Wilson idea.

 

However, wouldn't the Brewers be better off trying to trade/sign the next C.J. Wilson instead of paying a lot for a new starting pitcher hoping that he can replicate his success? I suggested Balfour in another thread.

[craigharmann]

I'm not 100% against the CJ Wilson idea.

 

However, wouldn't the Brewers be better off trying to trade/sign the next C.J. Wilson instead of paying a lot for a new starting pitcher hoping that he can replicate his success? I suggested Balfour in another thread.

Agreed on both points. CJ Wilson is in his first year of starting. I'm hesitant for that reason alone. But more than that, I think you want to get a commodity that is a little more "known" if you're trading Fielder.

[thebruce44]

I can't believe we have devoted this much time to arguing about CJ Wilson.

[nate82]

Exhibit B: Amaury Rivas shut down for the rest of the year due to high innings. I don't need to go any further.

This is funny too. Are you really telling me the 8 inning increase Rivas had this year over last year has caused the Brewers to decide to shut him down? 8 innings? Try again.

Melvin himself stated they weren't bringing up Rivas because of this. Stating that the Brewers do not believe in monitoring a pitchers innings and having them shut down for the year is asinine. Obviously they don't do it for every player in Rogers case but it is something that the Brewers consider and it is done on a case by case basis.

[Never Outhustled]

Exhibit B: Amaury Rivas shut down for the rest of the year due to high innings. I don't need to go any further.

This is funny too. Are you really telling me the 8 inning increase Rivas had this year over last year has caused the Brewers to decide to shut him down? 8 innings? Try again.

Melvin himself stated they weren't bringing up Rivas because of this. Stating that the Brewers do not believe in monitoring a pitchers innings and having them shut down for the year is asinine. Obviously they don't do it for every player in Rogers case but it is something that the Brewers consider and it is done on a case by case basis.

 

 

We're talking about a jump in innings from year to year. Rivas jumped just 8 innings this year. Melvin saying Rivas isn't coming up because of his workload was his nice way of saying they don't think as highly of Rivas as they do of Rogers. It has nothing to do with his workload. If he can't handle more than 140 innings at this point in his career, then he's destined to be a career reliever, and I don't think thats the case, at least not based on his durability.

[And That]

You have to keep in mind the Brewers don't just monitor innings pitched, they monitor pitches thrown. Not all 141 innings are created equally - it could be that Rivas was a lot less efficient this season than he was last season and those 8.2 additional innings thrown this year were at substantially higher pitch counts. The opposite could be true for Rogers. Perhaps he has been more efficient.

 

If Melvin said he's done pitching for the year, I take that to mean he's done pitching for the year. I don't read anything else in to Rivas not being called up other than he has pitched enough this year. Maybe his arm is a little sore or something, and they don't feel like making it public. He was on the DL towards the end of the season.

[PilprinBuddha]

Tampa has the Pitching prospects we want....to bad they likely won't want Prince.

[TooLiveBrew]

Depends on how much of Prince's salary the Brewers are willing to subsidize. I still think the Rays could be a good fit.

[sveumrules]

The Rays are the perfect fit (they need LH power & have pitching prospects galore) and if we ate Fielder's salary (which we can absolutely afford to do) you'd have to think we could get a crazy haul, though I don't see them trading Hellickson in any circumstance.

 

Prince, 15 million (&2 high draft picks in 2012) for Davis, Moore, Mcgee & Beckham