The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 2)

[JohnBriggs12]

I think he's suggesting he should have gone for Fielder for Hudson, straight up.

It was completely unrealistic to think that the Sox would have dealt Hudson AND Beckham for Fielder. I reside in the Chicago area and know many Sox fans (most who hated the Hudson for Jackson deal by the way) and hear a lot of talk radio down here. I don't believe most Brewer fans understand how highly regarded Beckham is. There was a discussion prior to the season on radio on whether the Sox should deal Beckham straight up for Adrian Gonzales. The consensus was amongst most Sox observers that they shouldn't do that.

 

Now Beckham has had a disappointing year so far (he's been coming on strong lately), but keep in mind this is a guy who played in just 59 minor league games prior to getting to the big leagues and was the 20th rated prospect in all of baseball in 2009. Many still project him as a future All Star.

 

While I didn't necessarily advocate a straight up deal for Hudson, I certainly thought he was good enough to be the centerpiece of a deal for Fielder. It certainly sounded as if the Sox would have included another player, just not Beckham. Even if I had to include Parra to get Hudson and say, Viciedo, I'd have done that in a heartbeat.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't believe most Brewer fans understand how highly regarded Beckham is.

 

This is a great point. Whether it was GM-speak or not (I took it not to be), Kenny Williams mentioned on the last ChiSox episode of MLB Network's The Club that Beckham's name was brought up in multiple trade discussions near the deadline, and that his answer from the start was "no". He said that any rumors about Beckham possibly being available were flat-out wrong.

 

And, fwiw, I think the Sox are right about Beckham. He's going to be a good second baseman for a long time.

[Invader3K]

I do kind of wonder if Melvin should have "settled" for Hudson, Viciedo, and maybe one or two other lower guys. Not sure if that was a legit possibility or just media speculation, though.

[TooLiveBrew]

The impression I got from The Club is that KW only dealt for Jackson because he felt they upgraded their rotation. I don't think a Hudson-Fielder swap would have worked, unless the Sox were comfortable plugging Bush (as an add-on to Prince) in their rotation to replace Hudson.

[dadofandrew]

Hudson for Prince would have been selling for a need. Most see Hudson as a solid #3/4 SP, and maybe a #2. He does have 6 years of team control too. I think they'll do better in the offseason.

[Invader3K]

Saw this blurb on MLB Trade Rumors from Jon Heyman (which I take with a HUGE grain of salt):

 

The Brewers are still holding out hope that they can re-sign Prince Fielder. Meanwhile, others in baseball believe that they have virtually no chance of retaining the slugger. Milwaukee's chances of hanging on to Fielder took a hit when the Twins re-upped Joe Mauer for $180MM. Fielder wants at least that much but it's likely too rich for Milwaukee's blood.

 

I just find it hard to believe Melvin and Attanasio have any belief that they can retain Prince past next season. Hopefully it's just Heyman pulling stuff out of his rear or Melvin (probably Boras more likely) starting rumors to increase Fielder's perceived value.

[JohnBriggs12]

Saw this blurb on MLB Trade Rumors from Jon Heyman (which I take with a HUGE grain of salt):

 

The Brewers are still holding out hope that they can re-sign Prince Fielder. Meanwhile, others in baseball believe that they have virtually no chance of retaining the slugger. Milwaukee's chances of hanging on to Fielder took a hit when the Twins re-upped Joe Mauer for $180MM. Fielder wants at least that much but it's likely too rich for Milwaukee's blood.

 

I just find it hard to believe Melvin and Attanasio have any belief that they can retain Prince past next season. Hopefully it's just Heyman pulling stuff out of his rear or Melvin (probably Boras more likely) starting rumors to increase Fielder's perceived value.

Fielder is currently 11th in the NL among 1B in runs batted in. At best, he's no better than the 4th best at his position in the NL, clearly behind Pujols, Votto and Adrian Gonzalez. To compare his contract situation with Joe Mauer is laughable. That the Phillies grossly overpaid Howard doesn't mean Fielder will get that same kind of money.

 

So there is definitely a scenario where the Brewers could a) afford Fielder and b) outbid the market. All they have to do is patiently wait. If they retained Fielder, and he duplicated his 2010 season in 2011, his value will fall below the offer he's already turned down from the Brewers back in April. No team is going to offer a 1B coming off back to back 85 RBI seasons over $20 million a year.

 

Now of course, if they received a very good offer of pitching help, they will and should jump on it. But I'm not holding my breath. Hudson would have been a pretty good return. Forget what the scouts say. Hudson's outperformed the scouts evaluation of him since the day he was drafted in the 5th round in 2008 and he's still doing it.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Thought I'd post this here too.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/102093458.html

 

Thought this was interesting from TH. Also includes a link to an article from Jayson Stark. Here's a quote from TH, "Stark was told the Brewers wanted two young front-line pitchers for Fielder back then and would have done a deal if a team made such an offer." Apparently, Melvin thinks he can get both starters that we need just for Fielder. I doubt that happens, but you never know I guess.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Saw this blurb on MLB Trade Rumors from Jon Heyman (which I take with a HUGE grain of salt):

 

The Brewers are still holding out hope that they can re-sign Prince Fielder. Meanwhile, others in baseball believe that they have virtually no chance of retaining the slugger. Milwaukee's chances of hanging on to Fielder took a hit when the Twins re-upped Joe Mauer for $180MM. Fielder wants at least that much but it's likely too rich for Milwaukee's blood.

 

I just find it hard to believe Melvin and Attanasio have any belief that they can retain Prince past next season. Hopefully it's just Heyman pulling stuff out of his rear or Melvin (probably Boras more likely) starting rumors to increase Fielder's perceived value.

Fielder is currently 11th in the NL among 1B in runs batted in. At best, he's no better than the 4th best at his position in the NL, clearly behind Pujols, Votto and Adrian Gonzalez. To compare his contract situation with Joe Mauer is laughable. That the Phillies grossly overpaid Howard doesn't mean Fielder will get that same kind of money.

 

So there is definitely a scenario where the Brewers could a) afford Fielder and b) outbid the market. All they have to do is patiently wait. If they retained Fielder, and he duplicated his 2010 season in 2011, his value will fall below the offer he's already turned down from the Brewers back in April. No team is going to offer a 1B coming off back to back 85 RBI seasons over $20 million a year.

 

Now of course, if they received a very good offer of pitching help, they will and should jump on it. But I'm not holding my breath. Hudson would have been a pretty good return. Forget what the scouts say. Hudson's outperformed the scouts evaluation of him since the day he was drafted in the 5th round in 2008 and he's still doing it.

While the logic of his current stats bringing his value down is relevant, I don't think that'll be the case. Knowing Boras he'll be using other contracts, like Ryan Howard's for example, as a basis for what Fielder gets. He'll also want to look back at Fielder's 50 HR season and insane RBI output from last season. Teams will more be buying on pat success than what he did this season. I just don't see the Brewers paying Prince a minimum of $25 million like Howard got. To me that means that this isn't gonna happen. I think he's as good as gone.

[JohnBriggs12]

Thought I'd post this here too.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/102093458.html

 

Thought this was interesting from TH. Also includes a link to an article from Jayson Stark. Here's a quote from TH, "Stark was told the Brewers wanted two young front-line pitchers for Fielder back then and would have done a deal if a team made such an offer." Apparently, Melvin thinks he can get both starters that we need just for Fielder. I doubt that happens, but you never know I guess.

Melvin is out of touch with reality. At best, the Brewers might get one young high ceiling pitcher. More likely, they'll have to settle for a mid rotation youngish veteran, ala Ervin Santana, that's no longer real cheap.

[sveumrules]

Given Melvin's track record on trades, our numerous rotation holes and the large amount of payroll coming off the books I definitely think the Fielder return will center around a pitcher who has 2 or 3 years of team control at a fairly value neutral salary along with a pitching prospect who is still a year or two away from MLB.

[craigharmann]

Given Melvin's track record on trades, our numerous rotation holes and the large amount of payroll coming off the books I definitely think the Fielder return will center around a pitcher who has 2 or 3 years of team control at a fairly value neutral salary along with a pitching prospect who is still a year or two away from MLB.

Agreed, and if that's the case, I'm OK with it, because that would give us a rotation of Yo, new guy, Wolf, FA signing, Narvy/Parra/Rogers/surprise in tranining camp. As long as the prospect is a pretty high ceiling kind of guy.

[JohnBriggs12]

Given Melvin's track record on trades, our numerous rotation holes and the large amount of payroll coming off the books I definitely think the Fielder return will center around a pitcher who has 2 or 3 years of team control at a fairly value neutral salary along with a pitching prospect who is still a year or two away from MLB.

Agreed, and if that's the case, I'm OK with it, because that would give us a rotation of Yo, new guy, Wolf, FA signing, Narvy/Parra/Rogers/surprise in tranining camp. As long as the prospect is a pretty high ceiling kind of guy.

The more I think about it, the more I think a Fielder for Ervin Santana deal makes sense for both teams. The Angels are pretty woeful on offense this year with a putrid team OBP of .315. Fielder would be an upgrade over the aging Matsui at DH. With a nucleus of Weaver, Haren and Pineiro, Santana is probably expendable and they would only be taking on an additional $7 million or so in salary, giving them leeway to replace Santana in the rotation with a FA.

 

I'm sure Melvin will insist they add a young pitcher, so he can say he got 2 for Fielder, but I would expect the guy to be at least a couple years away. I'd also expect the Brewers to throw in Parra too.

 

That would make 4/5ths of the rotation next year: Gallardo, Wolf, Santana and Narveson with the 5th still to be determined among a FA, Capuano or possibly a long shot like Rogers or Rivas.

[reillymcshane]

I would look for young pitching back for Fielder - but I don't want a middle of the rotation guy with only a couple of years left of control as a centerpiece. I want a guy at AAA or just getting his feet wet in the majors with big upside - so we have 5-6 years of the guy and have him be able to dominate. I've used Madison Bumgarner as an example. If you could get a guy like that, plus another minor league player with high upside, that's great. The second guy might be lower level minors, but that's okay. The Brewers need a top of the rotation type player - that means we have to get the guy before he's a star. This is more risky of a tactic than taken a more proven player with less upside, but I'd rather take the risk.

[Never Outhustled]

The deal that I think will happen is Fieldet to Texas for CJ Wilson. Wilson, like Fielder, is a FA aftert next season, which matches up their value perfectly. Texas gets to keep the young pitching they have, and we get an Ace caliber pitcher. Combine that with dealing McGehee for a 2nd pitcher and signing a major FA bat, and The Brewers would be contenders.

[MJLiverock]

Except the offense would likely drop to middle of the pack which along with the rotation improving to middle of the pack yields a middling low 80's win team.

[paul253]

Except the offense would likely drop to middle of the pack
which along with the rotation improving to middle of the pack yields a
middling low 80's win team.

Yeah I don't think you can just remove your #4 and #5 hitters from the lineup and expect the offense to be the same. I highly doubt Gamel will match next year what McGehee did this year. Plus I'm still not sold on Corey Hart. He could very well return to pre 2010 form.

[nate82]

The deal that I think will happen is Fieldet to Texas for CJ Wilson. Wilson, like Fielder, is a FA aftert next season, which matches up their value perfectly. Texas gets to keep the young pitching they have, and we get an Ace caliber pitcher. Combine that with dealing McGehee for a 2nd pitcher and signing a major FA bat, and The Brewers would be contenders.

While I think that is probable I think the Brewers will get at least a return like the Rockies got for Holliday.

[Never Outhustled]

Except the offense would likely drop to middle of the pack which along with the rotation improving to middle of the pack yields a middling low 80's win team.

 

My plan included adding a major FA bat, so why would the offense be expected to fall off? If we add Werth, who actually has a higher OPS than Fielder and has seen his OPS increase in each of his 3 seasons as a starter, the offense wil remain strong. Hart regressing to his previous form is no more likely than Braun improving to his previous form. Also, I think everyone expects Escobar, Lucroy and Cain to be better than Escobar, Lucoy, and Gomez were this year.

 

The Brewers could add Werth and still be way under budget, and would have an improved defense at 2 positions.

[And That]

I like the idea of Werth and Hart in the same lineup. It's very Moneyball... we'd be cornering a market inefficiency in tall, gawky right-handed batters with a history of terrible facial hair.

[Oldcity]

I like the idea of Werth and Hart in the same lineup. It's very Moneyball... we'd be cornering a market inefficiency in tall, gawky right-handed batters with a history of terrible facial hair.

How dare you speak ill of Jayson Werth's fantastic beard?

http://www.mtrmedia.com/.a/6a00e5513d181b88340134857c634b970c-pi

[And That]

That beard is fine - check out his most recent facial hair, though. You shouldn't steal anything from Jason Motte, but especially not his beard.

[craigharmann]

Werth and Corey would be known as the Wookie Brothers.

[thebruce44]

The deal that I think will happen is Fieldet to Texas for CJ Wilson. Wilson, like Fielder, is a FA aftert next season, which matches up their value perfectly. Texas gets to keep the young pitching they have, and we get an Ace caliber pitcher. Combine that with dealing McGehee for a 2nd pitcher and signing a major FA bat, and The Brewers would be contenders.

 

That would be terrible. One year of a guy who isn't even an ace and whose innings jumped by a tremendous amount this year. I would rather take the two picks for Fielder.

[jjkoestler]

The deal that I think will happen is Fieldet to Texas for CJ Wilson. Wilson, like Fielder, is a FA aftert next season, which matches up their value perfectly. Texas gets to keep the young pitching they have, and we get an Ace caliber pitcher. Combine that with dealing McGehee for a 2nd pitcher and signing a major FA bat, and The Brewers would be contenders.

 

That would be terrible. One year of a guy who isn't even an ace and whose innings jumped by a tremendous amount this year. I would rather take the two picks for Fielder.

I'm starting to think that the Brewers would be better off keeping Prince for another year, spending some cash on free agents, and making one last run.

 

Does anyone know how deep the 2012 draft will be?