The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 2)

[And That]

I think that if we trade Prince to the White Sox, we definitely need to ask for a deal centered around Scott Linebrink. That would only be fitting.

[MJLiverock]

Getting just draft picks for Fielder doesn't sound like much fun to me. We're looking at 2015-16 before those players could even begin to help the big club.

At the very minimum 2015-2016. 2012 drafted. 2013 A or A+ ball. 2014 AA. 2015 AAA. That is a pretty quick passage through the minors. That is the track Lawire is on right now.

 

 

There is also the chance Prince signs with a team with a protected first rounder leaving the Brewers with nothing more than a sandwich pick. Holding on to Prince for picks could end up with the Brewers getting nothing more than Evan Frederickson for an elite hitter. That is a big gamble with poor risk reward vs. Trading for guys who have already produced in the minors. Hart for picks doesn't seem as big a gamble as getting just a weak sandwich pick for a hitter of Prince's caliber.

[GB12]

If he's not moved now you have to take the best offer for Prince in the offseason no matter what it is. Even if it's not quite what we're hoping for, it'd sure be better than a couple draft picks.

[dlk9s]

"They have decided they're close enough to contention that they're not

selling, so Hart and Fielder are off the market," Law said, citing an

executive from a rival club that was interested in a Brewers player.

Going back to the above statement, I really wouldn't worry too much about it. It was said when we were what, 8 games out? I really can't imagine that Melvin actually though that we were "close enough to contention." My two most probably reasons for the statement are:

 

1) The "close enough to contention" is in reference to next season, meaning that Melvin feels that he can make a couple moves without getting rid of two of our top sluggers and give the team a shot at the playoffs in 2011.

 

2) The rival GM was annoyed that the Melvin wouldn't accept his offers, so he said the "close enough to contention" line sarcastically.

[Never Outhustled]

The White Sox and Giants are still looking for a lefthanded bat, and the Nationals asked the Giants for Bumgarner. That's rediculous for a rental, and for Dunn. However, it sets the price for Fielder. If the Giants are going to get a bat it will cost them Bumgarner. Bush and Fielder for Bumgarner and Ishikawa.

[Never Outhustled]

There is also the chance Prince signs with a team with a protected first rounder leaving the Brewers with nothing more than a sandwich pick. Holding on to Prince for picks could end up with the Brewers getting nothing more than Evan Frederickson for an elite hitter.

No, if the 1st rounder is protected, we get the teams 2nd rounder. Could be another Yo Gallardo or JJ Hardy. As for the sandwich pick, why do you imply every sandwich pich will be another Evan Frederickson? Maybe the pick could be another Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Heckatorn, or Kentrail Davis?

 

While I too prefer acquiring prospects, if we're taking worst case scenario's, then why bother trading for the next Zack Jackson or J DLR?

[dadofandrew]

Why would anyone finds it a success to "ask for Bumgarner." He's not going anywhere, as is no SP that's in a contender's rotation.

 

No one is dealing a key piece of their team as they try to make the playoffs. That's why the only "name" prospects are either blocked or a year or two away.

[ninja33]

i think the theory is that if we send them bush as well, then they will get an ok pitcher to fill out their rotation. Not sure how much I buy that, or that the giants will either....but they take the downgrade at the backend of their rotation (and their future) in order to significantly upgrade their lineup.

[Never Outhustled]

Why would anyone finds it a success to "ask for Bumgarner." He's not going anywhere, as is no SP that's in a contender's rotation.

 

No one is dealing a key piece of their team as they try to make the playoffs. That's why the only "name" prospects are either blocked or a year or two away.

 

Daniel Hudson was just traded yesterday, because just like in this proposed deal, they got a veteran starting pitcher back. The Angels have dealt 2/5ths of their roation from a week ago, because they got the pieces they wanted back. The Rays are considering dealing Wade Davis to get the bat they want.

 

Your generalizations are borish and grossly inaccurate.

[MJLiverock]

No, if the 1st rounder is protected, we get the teams 2nd rounder. Could be another Yo Gallardo or JJ Hardy. As for the sandwich pick, why do you imply every sandwich pich will be another Evan Frederickson? Maybe the pick could be another Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Heckatorn, or Kentrail Davis?

 

While I too prefer acquiring prospects, if we're taking worst case scenario's, then why bother trading for the next Zack Jackson or J DLR?

I agree the sandwich pick could turn out just fine, there are no gurantees in how a pick pans out in either direction, good or bad. I was just thinking back to all the hype and hope for the picks for Sabathia and Sheets and the team ended up with much less than anticipated. I could easily see some big market team with money to burn like the Cubs, Mets, Orioles, Mariners, etc. being bad enough to have that protected first rounder and but having the money or will to spend the money to sign Prince. Getting a second rounder instead of a first rounder could be 30 or more spots lower in the draft order which may be a big drop in talent level.

 

My line of thinking is sort of against the just enjoy Prince's bat for another season and take the picks. That next season is most likely just going to be another mediocre 80 win team since the rotation will still be pretty bad and the high risk of the picks panning out or my even worse case scenario of not getting even a first rounder for Prince. Even getting just a Kentrail Davis would be pretty disheartening for a hitter of Prince's caliber just so the team could be a middle of the pack non contender for another year. The only way to propel this team forward is to make sure that the first wave of talent is sqandered and not turned into more talent, even if they may take a year or two to arrive.

 

Getting picks for Hart wouldn't bother me as much as losing Fielder for picks because I wouldn't have the feeling of we had one of the better hitters in the league and all we got was this t-shirt feeling.

 

I just don't see how this team is going to be any better than the 80 wins most people thought this year's team was capable of if the same players are brought back. Bringing up Butler, Rivas, Rogers, etc. are not big difference makers, especially in the short run. A 2011 rotation of Gallardo, Wolf, Butler, Rivas, Parra/Rogers isn't materially better than Gallardo, Wolf, Bush, Narveson/Davis, Parra. Parra has not been good in his extended starting audtion this year, Butler is another 4/5 guy and Rivas will be in his first year. Rogers reminds me of Parra, good stuff but questionable command and stamina/durability for his first year starting in the majors.

 

 

[BADGERJOBOB]

If you take out a bunch of Randy Wolf's starts I'm sure he looks pretty good.

 

If Jackson was a good pitcher you might be allowed to make those arguments, but because he had a fluke half, I think you can't take a return to normalcy the rest of the season out of his total equation.

 

You can't say "Ahhh, no" if what I said is statistically correct. He had a great, fluke first half and his par for the course 2nd half (4.50 ERA).

 

Take out his best and worst starts if you're going to play like that and he probably once again ends up with a 2.60 or 2.70 pre July and 4.30 post July.

Who said anything about taking out best and worst starts? I only mentioned his very last start cost him 0.3 of an ERA because you seem to think he sucked for the last 3 months. I am all for actually looking at all his starts for the entire year. If you looked at all his starts from start to finish, he had a pretty good year overall. He didn't have a season like Ubaldo Jimenez is having this year where he was lights out for the first two months and not so good the next two months. Jackson had 4 very good months of pitching. His ERA bounced in the 2-3.00 ERA range for four months which is a significant part of the year. Yes, he tailed off at the very end (most of his September starts and 1 October start were bad). Maybe because he never pitched more than 180 innings his arm was tired. I don't know but to write off half the season is disengenious. So yea I can say "Ahhh, no" because you are not quoting statistical stats correctly. Your guessing without looking but if that floats your boat to prove your end of the arguement, go ahead. And yes last year could have been a huge fluke but you wanted one example of why anyone would trade for him and offered 4 really good pitching months that you then dismissed so it still fits your arguement.

 

 

[nate82]

I think the biggest thing this off season for Fielder getting traded would be the ownership problems for the Rangers and the Dodgers to be fixed for a deal to happen. I believe if Mark Cuban buys the Rangers he will look to make a big splash with someone like Fielder and Lee to be the faces of the franchise.

[bill hAll Star]

If you take out a bunch of Randy Wolf's starts I'm sure he looks pretty good.

 

If Jackson was a good pitcher you might be allowed to make those arguments, but because he had a fluke half, I think you can't take a return to normalcy the rest of the season out of his total equation.

 

You can't say "Ahhh, no" if what I said is statistically correct. He had a great, fluke first half and his par for the course 2nd half (4.50 ERA).

 

Take out his best and worst starts if you're going to play like that and he probably once again ends up with a 2.60 or 2.70 pre July and 4.30 post July.

Who said anything about taking out best and worst starts?

 

I did, because it would only be fair if you want to skew the numbers.

[Invader3K]

I think the biggest thing this off season for Fielder getting traded would be the ownership problems for the Rangers and the Dodgers to be fixed for a deal to happen. I believe if Mark Cuban buys the Rangers he will look to make a big splash with someone like Fielder and Lee to be the faces of the franchise.

This is a good point. I think the Dodgers could make a lot of sense if they get this divorce mess sorted out. Not sure about the Rangers, but you never know.

[piccione88]

The orioles are one of the more intriguing possible suitors for prince this off-season. It is not outside the realm of possibility that they could get involved, and they have a boatload of solid pitchers. Matusz is probably off limits, but a trade involving both tillman, arrietta, and a low level nugget would be a good return. Both pitchers, esspecially tillman are struggling a bit this year, and the o's might be willing to part with them.

 

The orioles could have a great lineup if Jones, and Wieters reach their potential, Roberts will be healthy again, and they have Scott and Markakis. Their rotation still would be deep, and they have other pitching prospects in Erbe, Britton, and Hobgood, just to name a few.

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

The Orioles would have to think they'd be better than NYY, BOS, and TB next season for them to be realistic players on Fielder. Prince isn't going to sign an extension, he's going to FA, so they'd only get him for '11.

[piccione88]

Really they only have to think that there is a decent chance that they could be better than two of those teams, since the wild card is going to come from the east just about every year.I will admit that is a pretty tough sell, but they do have alot of potential, and could easily break out next year. They are not the most likely trading partner, but they could be a team that takes a chance, like the A's did with holliday, albeit in a much tougher division. If they struggle again next year, they can try to flip him at the deadline.

[TooLiveBrew]

Really they only have to think that there is a decent chance that they could be better than two of those teams, since the wild card is going to come from the east just about every year.

 

That's a good point.

[nate82]

No the Orioles would also have to think they are better than the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are not a bad team they have some really good pitching on their team and their offense is about average.

[Never Outhustled]

No the Orioles would also have to think they are better than the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are not a bad team they have some really good pitching on their team and their offense is about average.

 

The Jays do have alot of pitching, and they would make sense for a Fielder trade.

 

Ricky Romero is a strikeout pitcher who could may the main piece of the package.

 

Brandon Morrow is another guy I still want, though it would take more to get him now than this past offseason, when he was dealt for Brandon League while Melvin was asleep at the wheel. Or maybe Doug was to busy giving Latroy Hawkins and Doug Davis millions that day.

[Kelbysdaddy]

i still think prince will end up in texas this off season. when the yankees beat the rangers in the alcs, they'll wish they made the trade at the deadline and they'll want to make sure it doesnt happen again. they should have all money issues in order well before the end of next season to work out a contract extension.

[JohnBriggs12]

Just a reminder, that Daniel Hudson that beat the Brewers with 7 strong innings and is 3-0 in the NL with a 1.59 ERA, going at least 7 innings in each start, is the same Daniel Hudson that Melvin supposedly wasn't interested in getting for Fielder because in his mind he had a ceiling of a 4th starter.

 

Doug of course must have been reading his 08 pre-draft scouting report on Hudson, whom he passed over in the first 4 rounds that year.

[Invader3K]

Well, there you go.

[nate82]

Just a reminder, that Daniel Hudson that beat the Brewers with 7 strong innings and is 3-0 in the NL with a 1.59 ERA, going at least 7 innings in each start, is the same Daniel Hudson that Melvin supposedly wasn't interested in getting for Fielder because in his mind he had a ceiling of a 4th starter.

 

Doug of course must have been reading his 08 pre-draft scouting report on Hudson, whom he passed over in the first 4 rounds that year.

And yet others in this very thread agreed with Melvin and wanted Beckham to come along in the deal. It was not Hudson who was the deal breaker in the trade it was the other pieces coming back for Fielder that was the problem or are you suggesting that Melvin should have accepted a Hudson plus other prospects deal?

[Invader3K]

I think he's suggesting he should have gone for Fielder for Hudson, straight up.