The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 2)

[PrinceEatMeat]

I would bet on it being Dunn, but...

 

This tweet got me thinking:

Hold off on the Jackson trade folks, KW has something big cooking and if he gets it done Jackson trade is off.

Supposedly the White Sox wanted Jackson so they could flip him for Dunn. If this trade would put an end to a Jackson trade, maybe it is a deal for Prince.

 

Its fun speculating on speculation.

You're right, if the Jackson trade is then off, it likely wouldn't be Dunn. That doesn't mean it's Prince either. I'm not gonna get my hopes up, unless the lineup is posted and he's not in it.

[giffted1]

You're right, if the Jackson trade is then off, it likely wouldn't be Dunn. That doesn't mean it's Prince either. I'm not gonna get my hopes up, unless the lineup is posted and he's not in it.

Yeah, Lance Berkman is another guy involved in some of these rumors that would make sense. But if Prince isn't in the lineup tonight this place would explode.

[Kelbysdaddy]

word is the sox are going after brett myers

[greeg35]

If that's the case i would have to question the judgement of whoever threw out the terms "significantly better" and "shock the world"

[PrinceEatMeat]

Maybe the Sox will get Dunn and Myers. That would definitely make them significantly better.

[greeg35]

True, or they could be giving up way to much for Myers; which would also be shocking.

[yoyomayoma]

Sounds like Kenny is looking to get Berkman and Myers. Shock the world? Big move but I don't know about shocking the world. Berkman can't hit lefties anymore.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Truthfully, I can't say that I'm upset about Prince not going before the deadline. I think that a lot more teams will be in on him this winter. The Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Dodgers, Braves, Rockies, and possibly the Yankees are some teams I could see making a play for him. I would expect that we would have a good chance of getting a solid starting pitcher for Fielder from some of these teams, because they could just go back out into free agency for a replacement, which isn't possible during a pennant race. A lot of teams out there have very good young pitching, and the best we can hope for is that a bidding war gets started. However, what I am really upset about is the fact that Hart wasn't traded at his peak value, and that some of out pitching like Bush wasn't also traded for something. Melvin is kidding himself if he thinks we're still in this race.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm still at a loss to understand why the Red Sox are being discussed as a Prince suitor. You're Theo Epstein, regarded as one of the top GMs in baseball. Big Papi has proven he'll be a valuable DH for probably another year.

 

Would you rather have: 2011 - Beltre at 3B (having a dominating season, great defender), Youk at 1B, Ortiz at DH with all of your top prospects in tact? After that, make a 180 million dollar offer to Prince after 2011 when Big Papi starts to get even older.

 

OR

 

Give up valuable pitching prospects and have to have one of Beltre/Youk/Ortiz/Fielder not in your lineup every single game? And still have to worry about re-signing Prince for $150+ million?

 

 

Anyways, the other teams in this mythical bidding war:

 

Dodgers: I don't see them as being a suitor. I guess they'd think about Loney + pitching prospects but I think they are happy with Loney because of his plus defense. Just a gut feeling here.

 

Giants: This might be the one team that would definitely put in a bid.

 

Braves: Didn't bring back LaRoche because they have a big 1B prospect in the mix.

 

Rockies: They are still paying Todd Helton a ton and aren't a team that is going to give up younger pitching for a one year rental of Prince. They wouldn't re-sign him if they rented him, so they aren't going to rent him.

 

Yankees: Eh, they're always in the picture, but 1B is already obviously covered and I think they're fine using DH for whichever other all star is banged up especially with their stud catching prospect and Posada on his last legs but still a plus bat. They probably have the same reasoning as the Red Sox. Why not keep the top prospects when you've got a viable solution for 2011 and bid for Fielder when he becomes a free agent?

 

Rangers: Given that they're going to want their young pitching after they most likely to not bring back Cliff Lee, this doesn't make sense for them. The ownership situation would have to drastically change for them to be willing to look into a $15 million rental and the possibility of a $150+ million contract.

 

 

 

This is the really annoying thing. This "bidding war" especially for what Melvin wants (MLB pitching) is a massive myth made up by Doug. When you look into it, just as many teams then are going to want him as do now. I'd rather take the value of 1/2 extra year of contract time, that "world series run" desperation, and the fact that we're already out of it to throw in the pot as value instead of the 1 or 2 extra teams that might get into the bidding war.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Does Melvin value Edwin Jackson more than Hudson in a win next year mode? We have good young pitchers who will be up in our system in 2-3 years but that doesn't help us in 2011 and 2012. Does Melvin do a deal for Jackson, Vicedo(sp?) and Beckham to us for Prince? We get a major league pitcher who will be 27 at the end of the year. A replacement for Prince in 2012 and a young potential big time player in Beckham who can take over third base for us next year or packaged in a deal for a good young arm that is close to MLB ready (Beckham or Lawrie to Seattle maybe for one of their arms?). I know Williams said that Beckham was not being traded but there are tweets that he is looking at a big deal.

[bill hAll Star]

Does Melvin value Edwin Jackson more than Hudson in a win next year mode? We have good young pitchers who will be up in our system in 2-3 years but that doesn't help us in 2011 and 2012. Does Melvin do a deal for Jackson, Vicedo(sp?) and Beckham to us for Prince? We get a major league pitcher who will be 27 at the end of the year. A replacement for Prince in 2012 and a young potential big time player in Beckham who can take over third base for us next year or packaged in a deal for a good young arm that is close to MLB ready (Beckham or Lawrie to Seattle maybe for one of their arms?). I know Williams said that Beckham was not being traded but there are tweets that he is looking at a big deal.

Can anyone give me a stat of Edwin Jackson's that makes him look like a valuable pitcher? He can dominate some games but the guy has a 5.16 ERA this year with a 1.50 WHIP?

 

I don't see the White Sox putting that offer in for a one year rental of Prince.

 

EDIT: I see you're talking about this deadline, which boosts the value of Prince but still won't grab that package, even though Jackson has about the same value as Dave Bush.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Does Melvin value Edwin Jackson more than Hudson in a win next year mode? We have good young pitchers who will be up in our system in 2-3 years but that doesn't help us in 2011 and 2012. Does Melvin do a deal for Jackson, Vicedo(sp?) and Beckham to us for Prince? We get a major league pitcher who will be 27 at the end of the year. A replacement for Prince in 2012 and a young potential big time player in Beckham who can take over third base for us next year or packaged in a deal for a good young arm that is close to MLB ready (Beckham or Lawrie to Seattle maybe for one of their arms?). I know Williams said that Beckham was not being traded but there are tweets that he is looking at a big deal.

Can anyone give me a stat of Edwin Jackson's that makes him look like a valuable pitcher? He can dominate some games but the guy has a 5.16 ERA this year with a 1.50 WHIP?

 

No way in hell the White Sox put that offer in for a one year rental of Prince.

 

The value of a 1 year rental with one world series run of Prince is lower than 1 1/2 years with 2 world series runs.

Last year 33 starts 214 innings pitched. 3.62 ERA and 1.26Whip. Maybe it was a fluke year, a one time thing but he did have a good one last year.

[areacodes]

However,

what I am really upset about is the fact that Hart wasn't traded at his

peak value, and that some of out pitching like Bush wasn't also traded

for something.

Did I miss the trade deadline being pushed up to the 30th? Why all this angst over not making any trades yet?

[bill hAll Star]

Last year 33 starts 214 innings pitched. 3.62 ERA and 1.26Whip. Maybe it was a fluke year, a one time thing but he did have a good one last year.

If I recall correctly he had a mid-2 ERA at the break. So really only a half season in pitcher-friendly Detroit. He's thrown 800 innings and has a 4.75 career ERA and is due almost 9 million next year.

 

No thanks.

[NievesNoNO]

This is the really annoying thing. This "bidding war" especially for what Melvin wants (MLB pitching) is a massive myth made up by Doug. When you look into it, just as many teams then are going to want him as do now. I'd rather take the value of 1/2 extra year of contract time, that "world series run" desperation, and the fact that we're already out of it to throw in the pot as value instead of the 1 or 2 extra teams that might get into the bidding war.

Exactly!! Thank you! I've been trying to understand this logic as well. In fact, I'm convinced there will be even fewer teams interested with all the free agent options out there. And really, why would you give up what Doug is asking for when you don't have to give up anything and sign the next best option. That's not to say they couldn't consider offers next trading deadline again I suppose.

 

If we are soo close as Mr. Melvin thinks then we should probably just gut our farm this off-season and try and land a couple front line starters (Greinke, Garza, Nolasco) even if we only have them around a few years. Overpay for either Vasquez or De la Rosa and have a go at it. I really wouldn't mind that approach because offensively we have enough, but I hope he doesn't say we're close and then not back it up with some corresponding moves this off-season. We'll see I guess.

[nate82]

Anyways, the other teams in this mythical bidding war:

 

Dodgers: I don't see them as being a suitor. I guess they'd think about Loney + pitching prospects but I think they are happy with Loney because of his plus defense. Just a gut feeling here.

 

Giants: This might be the one team that would definitely put in a bid.

 

Braves: Didn't bring back LaRoche because they have a big 1B prospect in the mix.

 

Rockies: They are still paying Todd Helton a ton and aren't a team that is going to give up younger pitching for a one year rental of Prince. They wouldn't re-sign him if they rented him, so they aren't going to rent him.

 

Yankees: Eh, they're always in the picture, but 1B is already obviously covered and I think they're fine using DH for whichever other all star is banged up especially with their stud catching prospect and Posada on his last legs but still a plus bat. They probably have the same reasoning as the Red Sox. Why not keep the top prospects when you've got a viable solution for 2011 and bid for Fielder when he becomes a free agent?

 

Rangers: Given that they're going to want their young pitching after they most likely to not bring back Cliff Lee, this doesn't make sense for them. The ownership situation would have to drastically change for them to be willing to look into a $15 million rental and the possibility of a $150+ million contract.

 

 

 

This is the really annoying thing. This "bidding war" especially for what Melvin wants (MLB pitching) is a massive myth made up by Doug. When you look into it, just as many teams then are going to want him as do now. I'd rather take the value of 1/2 extra year of contract time, that "world series run" desperation, and the fact that we're already out of it to throw in the pot as value instead of the 1 or 2 extra teams that might get into the bidding war.

Loney isn't a plus defender at 1B.

 

Season	Team	Pos	rSB	rBU	rGDP	rARM	rHR	rPM	DRS	BIZ	Plays	RZR	OOZ	TZL	Arm	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	UZR/150
Total	- - -	1B		5				6	11	592	450	.760	137	7.6		1.5	-5.6	-1.1	-5.2	-1.8
2006	Dodgers	1B		0				4	4	24	22	.917	5	2.2		0.0	4.3	-0.1	4.2	37.4
2007	Dodgers	1B		2				1	3	125	87	.696	21	-3.1		0.2	-2.3	-1.8	-3.8	-6.5
2008	Dodgers	1B		2				-1	1	185	134	.724	58	0.1		0.1	-5.9	-1.9	-7.7	-7.7
2009	Dodgers	1B		0				3	3	154	125	.812	28	8.4		0.5	0.8	0.9	2.3	2.7
2010	Dodgers	1B		1				-1	0	104	82	.789	25			0.7	-2.6	1.6	-0.3	-0.9

I haven't seen anywhere where Melvin is asking for MLB Pitching only. I see where he says teams have only been offering him A ball players which if Melvin accepted a deal with all A ball players nearly everyone would be saying how dumb that deal is and to fire Melvin right away. I believe Melvin is looking for near ready MLB pitching there is a difference between the two by the way. Melvin is probably looking for a mix of A to AA type players like almost every proposed deal in this thread for Fielder it is just that teams are not willing to give that up for Fielder. Hart is the only player Melvin has been linked to for asking for a MLB pitcher which was Sanchez and Bumgarner.

[BADGERJOBOB]

If I recall correctly he had a mid-2 ERA at the break. So really only a half season in pitcher-friendly Detroit. He's thrown 800 innings and has a 4.75 career ERA and is due almost 9 million next year.

 

No thanks.

Depends on how you want to look at it. End of May 2.30. End of June 2.49. End of July 2.64. End of August 2.96. End of September 3.36. And only pitched one game in October where he was brutal pushed his ERA to 3.62. I really don't know much about him or his contract so I can't tell you if he is worth trading for or not 9depends on the package deal) but he did have good numbers last year for most of the season. He is only 26 years old. He has always had good stuff. Mid 90s fastball. Projected as a front of a rotation pitcher but he has lacked consistency and I think control has always been his problem but again I don't follow the guy.

 

[bill hAll Star]

If I recall correctly he had a mid-2 ERA at the break. So really only a half season in pitcher-friendly Detroit. He's thrown 800 innings and has a 4.75 career ERA and is due almost 9 million next year.

 

No thanks.

Depends on how you want to look at it. End of May 2.30. End of June 2.49. End of July 2.64. End of August 2.96. End of September 3.36. And only pitched one game in October where he was brutal pushed his ERA to 3.62. I really don't know much about him or his contract so I can't tell you if he is worth trading for or not 9depends on the package deal) but he did have good numbers last year for most of the season. He is only 26 years old. He has always had good stuff. Mid 90s fastball. Projected as a front of a rotation pitcher but he has lacked consistency and I think control has always been his problem but again I don't follow the guy.

I think what I said about the first half makes total sense then. He has only had one good half of a season in his career.

 

2.50 ERA after June = good first half.

 

That plus a 4.50 post-June ERA would average out to 3.50.

 

Wouldn't that qualify as one great half?

[PrinceEatMeat]

However,

what I am really upset about is the fact that Hart wasn't traded at his

peak value, and that some of out pitching like Bush wasn't also traded

for something.

Did I miss the trade deadline being pushed up to the 30th? Why all this angst over not making any trades yet?

Maybe because Melvin and multiple other sources said that we aren't going to make any trades? And because history also tells us that we won't.

[BADGERJOBOB]

I think what I said about the first half makes total sense then. He has only had one good half of a season in his career.

 

2.50 ERA after June = good first half.

 

That plus a 4.50 post-June ERA would average out to 3.50.

 

Wouldn't that qualify as one great half?

Ahhh no. I would say a 3.36 ERA for the entire year minus the last game is a very good year overall and I would love to have the Brewers with 5 starting pitchers who pitched all season and finished the year sub 3.63. Jackson finished top 10 in AL ERA last year in pitching 33 games. You can say it was only half the season but there are not a lot of pitchers who can consistently do it all year long. Jackson had a good year overall last year. You don't like him. Great. Got it.

 

 

[PrinceEatMeat]

I think the teams that will be in on Prince this off-season are mostly teams with a chance of re-signing him. Other teams could take a chance and also be able to use a fall-back and trade him at the deadline if it doesn't end up helping them. Also, at the very least they would get the draft compensation back. I think there are teams out there that would be willing to take the chance of Fielder helping them make a World Series push, and just take the draft compensation after that if they can't re-sign him. Prince could make a big difference to the middle of any contending team's lineup. I know that a bidding war is wishful thinking, but a few good offers isn't wishful thinking. We apparently don't have any great offers at this point, so I don't see why waiting hurts much. At the worst we could get something similar to what may have been offered at the deadline. I wouldn't have minded to see Prince dealt now, but I think there will be suitors in the off-season that Melvin can get something from. That's why I'm not that upset. The whole Hart situation upsets me a lot more.

[bill hAll Star]

I think what I said about the first half makes total sense then. He has only had one good half of a season in his career.

 

2.50 ERA after June = good first half.

 

That plus a 4.50 post-June ERA would average out to 3.50.

 

Wouldn't that qualify as one great half?

Ahhh no. I would say a 3.36 ERA for the entire year minus the last game is a very good year overall and I would love to have the Brewers with 5 starting pitchers who pitched all season and finished the year sub 3.63. Jackson finished top 10 in AL ERA last year in pitching 33 games. You can say it was only half the season but there are not a lot of pitchers who can consistently do it all year long. Jackson had a good year overall last year. You don't like him. Great. Got it.

 

If you take out a bunch of Randy Wolf's starts I'm sure he looks pretty good.

 

If Jackson was a good pitcher you might be allowed to make those arguments, but because he had a fluke half, I think you can't take a return to normalcy the rest of the season out of his total equation.

 

You can't say "Ahhh, no" if what I said is statistically correct. He had a great, fluke first half and his par for the course 2nd half (4.50 ERA).

 

Take out his best and worst starts if you're going to play like that and he probably once again ends up with a 2.60 or 2.70 pre July and 4.30 post July.

[wibadgers23]

Getting just draft picks for Fielder doesn't sound like much fun to me. We're looking at 2015-16 before those players could even begin to help the big club.

[areacodes]

Maybe because Melvin and multiple other sources said that we aren't going to make any trades? And because history also tells us that we won't.

The same type of sources that change with the wind and can run with two completely different stories about the same player's trade status within hours. Also taking Melvin -- and most GM's -- for his word when discussing possible trades is foolish as he will be keeping his cards close to his vest.

 

I just don't understand the use of definitive statements such as "the fact that Hart wasn't traded at his

peak value" when there is still about a day before the deadline. It is a fluid situation and change is rapid.. Is a trade going to happen? I don't know, but there is still potential for trades. Why get up in arms before the deadline is even over?

 

On top of that, what if the value being offered for Prince or Hart isn't up to their "peak value" in the Brewers eyes? Would a trade for a sub-par package be better than not making a move?

 

I personally wonder how much influence Attanasio has on our player moves.

[logan82]

Getting just draft picks for Fielder doesn't sound like much fun to me. We're looking at 2015-16 before those players could even begin to help the big club.

At the very minimum 2015-2016. 2012 drafted. 2013 A or A+ ball. 2014 AA. 2015 AAA. That is a pretty quick passage through the minors. That is the track Lawire is on right now.