The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 2)

[JohnBriggs12]

Rosenthal just tweeted that the Brewers are waiting until after the next two games with Cincinnati to decide on any deals. Why am I not surprised at all by such stupid logic? Even if they sweep the Reds they'll still have extremely long odds of making the playoffs. Terrible.

I'm also not surprised one bit by their logic. We saw it last year and we're seeing it again this year.

 

I'd agree with you, but the guys they've talked about moving are under control through next year too and they don't have to trade them now.

[ninja33]

Maybe i'm an optimist, but to me all that means is they're not going to sell just to sell. Like Sage posted above, Melvin is asking for what he thinks his guys are worth, and if he doesn't get it he doesn't make a trade. There's no reason to make a trade if the team is starting to play well and you don't think you're getting fair value. The brewers will have a lot more trade options in the offseason as well....it doesn't need to get done now.

 

For the record, I wish that something would happen at the deadline that would satisfy everyone, but i don't see that happening. so i'm fine waiting til the offseason if that's the case. Plus (and I agree it's a ridiculous longshot to have any hope for the season) if you sweep the reds then you get the astros (twice), cubs, and dbacks for the next two weeks. Crazy things, like five no hitters in a season, happen sometimes. They're not going to make the playoffs....but it has been fun to have hope for the past few days.

[kramnoj]

You can call it stupid logic, with the Brewers being 8 GB right now. But the Rockies were 8 GB this time last year and made the playoffs.

 

Now I don't want to repeat what the Mets did by trading away Kazmir for a veteran pitcher who was probably inferior to Kazmir at the time of the trade. But the Brewers don't have to trade their best players now. The only players they are losing this year are Bush and Edmonds, and we're not missing out on much by not giving them away.

 

I don't have a hard time seeing the Brewers passing the Reds. It's much tougher to see them passing the Cardinals, but if the Brewers aren't happy with any offers for Hart and Fielder, there's no reason to trade them just to trade them and toss in the towel.

[Oldcity]

I'd agree with you, but the guys they've talked about moving are under control through next year too and they don't have to trade them now.

True, but I'm not angry that they might not trade Hart or Fielder. Like others, I don't want them to trade just to trade. I'm angry that it sounds like they could decide to take them off the market if they win these next two games.

[BADGERJOBOB]

Sounds like some on here want Melvin to trade Hart and Prince just to trade them and make changes. No need to trade them if you don't get any good value for them. I would rather keep them then get a bag of balls for them. Worst case scenario is they are on our roster through 2011 and we get draft pick compensation for them. Not ideal but not the end of the world. We get more high picks, and that gives us a greater chance we can find our own Mike Minor like prospect who can get to the majors quickly.

 

Anyways, it looks like Jayson Werth has value this year and his contract is up at the end of this year so we can probably get decent comp from Prince/Hart at next year's trade deadline if we get a good offer. Prince will hit, Hart is a question mark but I would be ok with rolling the dice on him. Its not the end of the world if they are still Brewers next week.

 

I am sure if Melvin can get a Baumgardner or Hellickson or someone of that talent, a deal will be made.

[NievesNoNO]

Stevo]Rosenthal just tweeted that the Brewers are waiting until after the next two games with Cincinnati to decide on any deals. Why am I not surprised at all by such stupid logic? Even if they sweep the Reds they'll still have extremely long odds of making the playoffs. Terrible.

I have to agree. Wait guys, if we can just win these next two we'll be only 3 games under .500 and 8 games back!! So you're saying there's a chance!! I really wouldn't have an issue with them holding until next year, but I fail to see how they will improve next year with the same team. They're not going to be able to sign any impact arms and in my opinion this is the chance for them to stockpile some solid prospects. Teams are getting desperate now and close to tasting the playoffs, so I have to believe they're willing to deal in prospects but probably not current players on their roster (which it seems Melvin is seeking). I'm sorry, I just don't see how waiting until to off-season returns any greater value. Sure you might have more options, but for what? Maybe for a pitcher with similar service time that we'll have the same issues with. Why would a team trade for 1 year of Fielder in the off-season and give up prospects when they can just sign an available free-agent and wait until to off-season to bid.

[logan82]

Nobody wants to trade Fielder and Hart just to trade them.

 

It has been explained several times that in the offseason teams are more willing to trade MLB talent than they are at the deadline. A team trading for Fielder and Hart right now isn't going to want to weaken themselves. This means you can get more teams in on the deal and can drive up the price.

[RockCoCougars]

Again, just say no to trading these guys for 'prospects'. There is absolutely no rush to move them whatsoever. If you could get a major league by next year ready arm that has the potential to be a #1 or #2 (plus more for Fielder) then I would think about it, but that's it. It's highly doubtful that any of these arms are available. I'm not ready to re-enter a rebuilding process at this point. Some people are acting like this is an old 95 loss team, when most of the core of this team is young- and they are only 6 games under .500 after underachieving for most of the season. There is also a lot of money to spend in the off-season to extend guys and/or plug some holes. I just don't understand the need to stockpile prospects.

[logan82]

I am looking towards 2012 when we have some minor league talent ready. Gamel, Cain, Lawrie and Odorizzi(maybe, depends where he goes next year) in particular all should be up by then. Add those guys to Gallardo, Braun, Escobar, McGehee and Lucroy. Extend Weeks and you have a pretty good base for a team. Hart and Fielder are likely to be gone by then so if we can get 2 or more decent players we are "rebuilt" by 2012 only really losing out on 2011.

[Oldcity]

All I was criticizing was this idea that winning the next two games should change the team's direction entirely.

[greeg35]

All I was criticizing was this idea that winning the next two games should change the team's direction entirely.

seems like a lot of this kind of logic is accepted in baseball maybe because its a traditional way to look at things...I had the same issues with deciding Macha's "fate" earlier this season over one series. I would like to think that more logical, big picture thinking prevails in clubhouses; but it sure doesn't seem that way sometimes.

 

I think its safe to say that Doug has a more optimistic view of this year and next year than most fans. Maybe this is a necessity for him as a "rebuild" or "reload" may mean his job. I said it after last year and I'll say it again, having the control of a small market franchise in the hands of a short-timer who is trying to protect his job and will sacrifice long term, sustained success in favor of the current possibly unsalvageable moment is a bad idea.

[GAME05]

heck, i think if we could get a guy like Sanchez from SF for Hart, we'd have an even stronger team for a playoff push than if we stood pat.

[kramnoj]

All I was criticizing was this idea that winning the next two games should change the team's direction entirely.

Yes, and you were trusting a tweet as evidence of the stupid logic. Serious reporting isn't done in a tweet. We don't know how accurate Rosenthal is with this. Did he get this from Melvin? From Ash? From some dude in marketing who overheard 10 seconds of conversation in the cafeteria? Or is this something that has made it through the sportswriter grapevine, and it's been distorted each time it went along?

Even if it's accurate that the Brewers will use the next two games as evidence, we don't know how it will affect the team's decisions. Will Melvin really turn down a great deal for Fielder or Hart just because the Brewers won two games? Or will it more likely have an affect on lesser players like Bush and Edmonds? If the Brewers are only 6 GB in a couple days, maybe it's worth it to keep those players and see what happens rather than giving them away for a prospect that won't probably pan out.

[monty57]

List of 1B who will be available as Free Agents this offseason:

 

Adam Dunn

Lance Berkman (has option)

Paul Konerko

Derrick Lee

Lyle Overbay

Carlos Pena

Jason Giambi

Wes Helms

David Ortiz (has option)

Albert Pujols (has option)

 

Scratch a couple of those guys off, as they either stink (Helms), are over the hill (Giambi) or their options will be picked up (Pujols, Ortiz). After that, you have a LOT of options for teams looking for a 1B, where they can simply sign the player without trading anyone away.

 

Plus, you can add in that Adrain Gonzalez is almost a given to be on the trading block this offseason, adding more supply.

 

Right now, Prince is essentially the only impact LH bat on the market. In the offseason, there will be many. Plus, the receiving team will only have one year with Prince instead of 1.5 years (two playoff runs) with him. As far as Hart, his bat isn't going to stay this hot. If he cools off, or if his current injury holds him back a bit, teams will run from him, as they're already having a hard time believing this first half is for real. I'm much more comfortable waiting for the offseason for Fielder, but Hart could easily blow up in Melvin's face. In the same light that the writer is saying Melvin's doing the right thing by not accepting less then what he wants, I'd say the other GMs are doing the right thing by not giving up more than Fielder & Hart are worth (especially Hart).

 

Unfortunately, I've been waiting for this for a while. The Brewers are a better team than they showed early in the season. However, they are not good enough to dig themselves out of the hole they put themselves in with their horrendous start. I knew the Brewers would make a run, and when they did, the big "PLAYOFFS" lights would start flashing in the front officers' eyes. Next, we'll see Melvin ship out a few of our mid-tier prospects (the guys who should be our bench players or bullpen arms in future seasons so we don't have to sign overpriced FAs) for some marginal help in our "playoff run" this season. Currently, I'd estimate the Brewers would need to win around 2/3 of their remaining games to have any chance of winning their division (40-21 would get them 88 wins and right now the Cardinals are on pace to win 90 and the Reds 88). Right now, there are zero teams in baseball with a .667 winning percentage. The closest is the $200MM Yankees at .643 and Rays at .612.

 

But yeah, these next two games should determine the future of the franchise.

[ninja33]

I'm sorry, I just don't see how waiting until to off-season returns any greater value. Sure you might have more options, but for what? Maybe for a pitcher with similar service time that we'll have the same issues with. Why would a team trade for 1 year of Fielder in the off-season and give up prospects when they can just sign an available free-agent and wait until to off-season to bid.

Maybe they want to be able to have that extra year to negotiate with Fielder on an extension, before other teams have a shot. Maybe they think they can make a run at it with him, and if they dont make it use two high draft picks to help retool the farm system. Maybe they trade him again at the deadline. The Rockies got a pretty nice player in Carlos Gonzalez (Huston Street was no slouch as a closer, although obviously not what the brewers would be looking for for prince) in exchange for Holliday's last year under contract. There are more teams looking to upgrade their major league talent in the offseason, and each of those teams has more flexibility in the offseason.

I'm not advocating waiting til the offseason necessarily, but if the right deal isn't there right now, then that's what you do. I don't think by sweeping the reds they're going to just decide "thats it! everyone's off the table." If the giants called on thursday and said we'll give you bumgarner for hart and bush.....its a done deal. the problem is we're NOT getting a bumgarner or a hellickson for hart, even if we try to add in more. We're not getting a Minor, Delgado, or Teheran from Atlanta. I live there, I play fantasy baseball with braves fans, and they all laugh in my face when guys like that are brought up for Hart. Everyone has way too high of expectations for what the brewers should get back in a deal, so no matter what you're disappointed and critical when a) it turns out the return isn't as much as you wanted or b) no trade is made.

 

[ninja33]

But yeah, these next two games should determine the future of the franchise.

if ken rosenthal tweeted it, it must be true!!!!!!

[monty57]

Everyone has way too high of expectations for what the brewers should get back in a deal,

 

If by everyone you are including Doug Melvin, then I'm with you. I am not proposing "trading just to make a trade," but if we could have turned one hot half-season of Hart into a young #3-ish SP with 5-6 years of team control, I'd say we were crazy not to do it. If any of the rumors are even remotely true, then I'd be extremely happy with the return. I'm not talking about the dream scenario of somehow getting Baumgarner or Hellickson, I'm talking about the Wade Davis types, which really seemed to have some base in reality. It seems Melvin is looking for either someone who is "MLB proven," which you won't get mid-season or someone who is a sure fire top of the rotation guy, which you aren't going to get for Hart.

 

We'll probably never know for sure what offers were made, but if Melvin turned down Wade Davis or some of the Braves' prospects (no offense to your Fantasy friends, but the Braves apparently did have genuine interest in Hart), I think he made a big mistake. I doubt Hart brings back more than that in the offseason, and if Melvin holds out there, then we'd better get on our knees and pray that Hart is able to stay hot for two seasons in a row and post an .800+ OPS next season or we won't even get any draft picks back when he walks. I say this because it's doubtful we'd offer him arby, potentially paying him over $10MM in 2012 if he posts another .750 OPS next year.

 

Purely an opinion, but I really think the reason Melvin believes you don't get return on hitters during the season is that he is insistant on getting at least one "proven MLB" player in return. Few teams in a playoff hunt are willing to give MLB players up, so Melvin either settles for less in value (Mench) or makes no move (basically every other season of his tenure). To expand on that, the pure fact that Melvin has made the comment that you get more in the offseason for hitters could be clouding his judgement into believing "If they're offering this much now, then I'll get a lot more this offseason."

 

The Rockies got a pretty nice player in Carlos Gonzalez (Huston Street was no slouch as a closer, although obviously not what the brewers would be looking for for prince) in exchange for Holliday's last year under contract.

 

Holliday returned some good players when he was traded during last season as well, and I think a large part of that was because prospects were on the other side of the deal. I doubt St. Louis would've given up MLB players for him. If Oakland had held out for Adam Wainwright, the deal wouldn't have been done. Instead, they got three highly rated prospects from St. Louis, and the Cards made the playoffs. Hitters can get good return mid-season, but you can't ask a playoff team (the buyers mid-season) to give up MLB players. I think Melvin's fixation on bringing back someone with MLB experience hinders him.

[ninja33]

the braves probably did have genuine interest, and then i would assume melvin started bringing up guys like minor or delgado (as he probably should have) and the conversation ended.

 

And my point on the Holliday/A's trade was that it's possible for teams to come out of nowhere (that weren't buyers at the deadline) and offer up some good players. Just that there are in fact more options in the offseason. Hitters can get return midseason as well, the cardinals gave up a really good AAA player in Wallace last year to get Holliday. I don't think Melvin is necessarily fixated on a guy with MLB experience, if someone like Wallace (except probably a pitcher) was offered as the centerpiece he could take it. It's a lot easier to know if a "close to MLB" player (like i think Melvin is looking for, whether already in the majors, or a AAA guy) is going to have an impact than a super talented guy in A ball.

[PilprinBuddha]

two games....will it really make a difference???Will Macha still be the manager???Then probably not.

[Invader3K]

All I was criticizing was this idea that winning the next two games should change the team's direction entirely.

Well, has the direction changed again after last night's debacle?

[logan82]

All I was criticizing was this idea that winning the next two games should change the team's direction entirely.

Well, has the direction changed again after last night's debacle?

Now we are waiting to see how the weekend series goes.

[Tennik]

Heyman just tweeted that the Rangers have joined the Angels and Sox in their pursuit of Fielder. What does Texas have left in their system after the Lee deal?

[MarquesJohnson2000]

And what do they have left in money to pay Prince?

[brains and braun]

How bout Neftali Perez? Sold.

[paulmolitor4]

Heyman just tweeted that the Rangers have joined the Angels and Sox in their pursuit of Fielder. What does Texas have left in their system after the Lee deal?

Texas has a fair amount of young pitching to offer. Holland, Perez, and Scheppers to name a few.