The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 2)

[areacodes]

The only way I trade Prince at this point is for a Sexson quality trade...A quality starter and a few major league quality prospects.

We need a different return than the one we got for Richmond Lockwood Sexson. With the Sexson trade, we were filling out our depleted roster with players who were capable of being in the majors and while we got some quality major leaguers, we now need to find some difference-makers in the rotation for Prince.

 

He was just asleep at the wheel while Dan Haren was given away.

How do you know that Melvin was "asleep at the wheel" during this process? Just because Haren went for an underwhelming package to LAA does not indicate whether Melvin pursued him or not.

 

If

the Brewers stand pat, I'd guess there will be many fans who decide

they've watched this team lose for long enough and just stop coming to

games and tuning in, which will hurt revenues this season, and kill

advanced ticket sales for next season.

I'd have to disagree with you on this point, as I believe most fans would be extremely disappointed if we trade Prince and have the exact same response you believe not trading him will have on the team. Lots of people who don't follow the team as closely as us here will just assume it is the "same ol' Brewers" trading away our stars for prospects and just tune out as my girlfriend and family have indicated when I discuss the Prince and Hart rumors.

[TooLiveBrew]

He was just asleep at the wheel while Dan Haren was given away.

Yeah, fire Melvin and those 15-20 or so other non-cellar-dweller GMs that missed on Haren

I really hate that kind of knee-jerk, reactionary stuff. The DBacks gave Haren away for a crap deal. You have zero way of knowing whether or not Melvin even had the chance to beat the Angels' offer, and zero way of knowing whether or not he actually did but the DBacks were stupid enough that they liked LAA's offer better.

[1e Corbeau]

^^^ Three incredibly valid points, areacodes.

 

No way do we need a quantity-over-quality deal for Prince; in fact, we need one or two high-ceiling blue-chippers for Prince, not fodder. (And Beckham is a blue-chipper, in my eyes; Hudson looks like a back-end thrower with an odd delivery and 3/4 slot who falls off towards 1B. He worked 91-93 with little control yesterday and his secondary stuff did not show much.)

 

As for Haren, X you know that he had a no-trade list that the Brewers were likely near the top of (Detroit for sure; Pitt, KC, I'd guess, plus 5 more--likely MKE is on there), so Melvin could call until his ear fell off or he lost his voice. If Haren wouldn't waive it, it doesn't matter. Of course, we could have blown away that offer and eaten Qualls/Snider, but it's all academic at this point.

 

And, I think that the audience component is often overlooked. Most casual fans who show up 1-2/year and don't spend hours on message boards may very well have that "same 'ol" reaction if the Brewers trade away one of their few true superstars in franchise history, regardless if not trading him is incredibly short-sighted. Ticket sales is a big thing to Attanasio, understandably.

 

Here's hoping that we see someone willing to grossly overpay for Prince and Hart, so we don't have to have a DBacks fans' reaction...

[brains and braun]

If I were a D-Backs fan, I'd be getting out the torches and pitchforks about now.

[PilprinBuddha]

I don't think we will ever get solid value for Prince....I am starting to believe that we should continue to work hard at signing him longterm. I now feel like (I know I probably am crazy) that we could or should go to 5-125 for him....if he turns than down....then I might change my mind. I think his bat and attitude along with Braun, can and should be the longterm building blocks.

[rcon14]

I don't think we will ever get solid value for Prince....I am starting to believe that we should continue to work hard at signing him longterm. I now feel like (I know I probably am crazy) that we could or should go to 5-125 for him....if he turns than down....then I might change my mind. I think his bat and attitude along with Braun, can and should be the longterm building blocks.

Problem is, is how do you build around that contract? That's a lot of money going to Wolf and Prince with reasonable money amounts going to Braun and Gallardo. Plus Weeks could get an extension, Casey will get paid more in a few years, it's tough to build around a contract like that when you can't have a huge payroll.

 

[Oldcity]

crewcuts wrote:

But you don't trade your biggest reasons for winning when you are still on the fringe of the hunt...A QUALITY starter and the healthy return of Hawkins still could make me optimistic here...

The Brewers aren't on the fringe of the hunt. Making the playoffs this season would be one of the biggest turnarounds in history. You absolutely cannot be a buyer when that's what it would take. PECOTA has the Brewers with a 0.7% chance at the playoffs.

[logan82]

We have guys like Lawrie and Salome to acquire promising arms.

 

Solome has little to no value right now. Lawrie is a building block for the future when we have a much better chance to be competitive. Trading Hart and Fielder makes s lot of sense because we will not be good enough to make the playoffs this year or next and we are unlikely to offer them long term contract. Hart because he probably isn't worth it and Fielder because he is asking way to much. Weeks is probably the player with the biggest trade value right now but I get the impression that they will offer him a long term contract.

[NievesNoNO]

1e Corbeau wrote:

And, I think that the audience component is often overlooked. Most casual fans who show up 1-2/year and don't spend hours on message boards may very well have that "same 'ol" reaction if the Brewers trade away one of their few true superstars in franchise history, regardless if not trading him is incredibly short-sighted. Ticket sales is a big thing to Attanasio, understandably.

 

Here's hoping that we see someone willing to grossly overpay for Prince and Hart, so we don't have to have a DBacks fans' reaction...

I think the "casual fan" aspect is overstated here too much of the time. In my opinion, the casual fan could care less about the names on the back of the uniform. Generally, they will pay attention when things are going well and won't show up when things are not. Many so-called casual fans like to go to the games for the atmosphere. Obviously winning helps the atmosphere, so even with Prince or whoever, if the team isn't winning people will stop showing up.

 

For example, I consider myself to be a casual fan of the Bucks/NBA. For the most part I'll check scores and can probably name you players on the Bucks roster but I don't keep up with other teams' rosters besides the big names that are pasted all over the media. I'll pay alot more attention when they play well regardless of who's on the team.

 

Heck, star players moving on might actually help revenue since fans will have to go out and buy new jerseys to wear to the couple games they go to.

 

 

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

As much as I'd like to see it, signing Prince is going to be almost impossible. Beyond the financial limitations, Prince/Boras seem dead set on shopping the market during free agency. There is no way the Brewers can let Prince get to that point. In FA, the odds are heavily against the Brewers. Two comp picks are just not enough.

 

It is tough since we really don't know what offers Melvin will get. The odds of getting a Texeira-size haul don't look good. Too many teams now value cost controlled players in line with how the Crew views them. It almost makes me wonder if someone will get a decent deal signing Prince, but I just don't think we can wait to find out.

[kramnoj]

I really hate that kind of knee-jerk, reactionary stuff.

 

Excellent point.

 

The DBacks gave Haren away for a crap deal.

 

You don't think is reactionary and knee-jerk? How much do you know about the Diamondbacks budget? How confident are you that Haren over the last year is really a fluke, and not closer to his future performance level?

 

Haren in his last 50 starts is a 4.53 ERA pitcher who gives up a HR a game. He is still striking people out, and his k/bb ratio is outstanding, but that isn't keeping the score down.

 

The Diamondbacks aren't going to contend for the next couple of years. They got 2 major league arms back, a young pitcher, and a player drafted a year ago. And the best part about trading for a player drafted a year ago is that the other team paid the signing bonus.

 

They didn't get a lot back, but it could turn out to be a good trade, and they saved some money. Given the NTC, they didn't have access to shop this around and get the absolute best talent available. Calling the front office vapid is just more of your incessant need to call baseball people stupid.

[monty57]

I don't think we will ever get solid value for Prince....I am starting to believe that we should continue to work hard at signing him longterm. I now feel like (I know I probably am crazy) that we could or should go to 5-125 for him....if he turns than down....then I might change my mind. I think his bat and attitude along with Braun, can and should be the longterm building blocks.

I'd guess that whatever the Brewers offer will only be used by Boras to help him in free agency. For instance, let's say the Brewers offer your example of 5 years, $125MM ($25MM / year A-Rod money!!). With this, Boras now has ammunition to use in free agent talks with the Brewers and other teams. Prince only has one arby season left, and with a $25MM/year offer hanging in the air, Boras would shoot for around $20MM in arby (I don't know what the rules are, but I'd guess it would be hard for the Brewers to debate his worth if they already offered him $25MM/year). Then, he goes into free agency, and the first thing he does is calls the usual big-market suspects and lets them know that Fielder has already been offered a huge contract. If the Brewers want in, they've already shown their hand as to what they're willing to pay, so Boras has that over them.

 

I think the Brewers already went in trying to negotiate in good faith, and Boras threw it back in their face. In my mind, there is no chance of the Brewers signing Fielder prior to his testing free agency. I have been a proponent of extending Fielder since his rookie season. Once Boras made the $200MM comment, I changed my mind. Now he needs to be traded, because he is far too good to let him walk away for draft picks. If the Brewers were front runners for the playoffs (like the A's when they let Giambi walk), then I may think differently, but that's not the case.

 

 

[brains and braun]

They didn't really save that much, though, did they? Saunders is getting expensive, particularly for what he is. If you are going into rebuild mode, you don't water down the return by trading for low ceiling guys with rising costs. D-Backs = FAIL

[kramnoj]

I clearly lost track of what this topic is supposed to be, but the Diamondbacks could flip Saunders if they want to.

 

Back to the point of the topic, how many top prospects have been traded recently? I could be wrong, but it seems like most times a player gets traded, people talk about how weak the return is. I wonder if our perceptions of trades needs to change. And if that is true, I don't think we should expect a huge return that people are hoping for with Prince.

[logan82]

I think a return similar to the Haren trade is around what we should expect for Fielder. Hopefully with at least one higher upside guy included.

[trwi7]

Back to the point of the topic, how many top prospects have been traded recently?

Justin Smoak was just traded. He came in at 13 on BA's top 100 list this season.

 

Kyle Drabek, Brett Wallace and Michael Taylor were all moved within the last year as parts of the Halladay trade.

 

Aaron Poreda who was 63 on BA's top 100 last year was traded in the Jake Peavy deal.

 

Justin Masterson was 64 on BA's top 100 in 2008 and was moved in the Victor Martinez trade. I believe Nick Hagadone is back in the top 100 as well and he was part of that trade.

 

Josh Bell is 37 on BA's top 100 and he was traded for George Sherrill.

 

Going back to 2008 Matt LaPorta was traded for Sabathia and Carlos Santana was traded for Casey Blake.

[kramnoj]

Thank you for the response.

 

Smoak and LaPorta can be looked at the same. If you have the best FA to be pitcher, and you trade him in early July, you will get a top 15 prospect as the centerpiece. The rest of the deal won't be super-attractive, but you will get one top prospect back.

 

Halladay's haul was two top 30 picks and one at 81 and he has been in the elite of of pitchers over the last few years.

 

We have the Dodgers involved in two trades where they gave up good prospects.

 

And a couple of trades where players not in the top 50 are involved. I could easily be wrong, but IMO a player not in the top 50 isn't a top, top prospect, and the Brewers would not improve all that much by getting one or two when they could possibly get that talent in draft picks by letting a player walk.

[monty57]

Kyle Drabek, Brett Wallace and Michael Taylor were all moved within the last year as parts of the Halladay trade.

 

Halladay's haul was two top 30 picks and one at 81 and he has been in the elite of of pitchers over the last few years.

 

Aren't we confusing Holliday/Halladay? I believe Wallace and Clayton Mortenson were traded from St. Louis for Matt Holliday, while Drabek and Taylor were part of the Roy Halladay deal. The Cardinals traded a lot of prospects in shooting for the playoffs last season. In addition to landing Holliday, they also traded some talent to get DeRosa.

 

Another recent deal, but I don't remember the players involved, was Cliff Lee being traded from Cleveland to the Phillies last season. Of course, the much referenced Teixiera deals weren't that many years ago. There aren't that many deals because there aren't that many elite players in the league, so there are only a couple every year on the block. Lee and Haren have already been traded, and there have been a few injuries, so Melvin is definitely holding some cards with two of the top bats on the market.

 

Just a side note, but the Cardinals are probably a pretty good case study on running a franchise, as when they had the playoffs in sight, they traded prospects, when they have a "core player" like Pujols/Holliday/Carpenter, they lock them up long term, and when they've got a tradeable player they're not going to lock up, they do things like trading J.D. Drew for young pitchers Wainwright and Marquis. Of course they make mistakes as well, but there's a reason they've continually kicked the Cubs' butts for about 100 years.

[trwi7]

Drabek and Taylor were originally moved to Toronto in the Halladay trade, but Toronto took Taylor and traded him to Oakland for Wallace.

 

But yes, Holliday was a free agent to be and at the time was considered a rental for St. Louis and he got the Cardinals #2 and #6 prospect plus a third prospect.

[monty57]

So, Cliff Lee was traded from Cleveland to Philly and subsequently traded from Philly to Seattle to clear salary room after Philly traded Drabek and Taylor (who was later traded for Brett Wallace, who was part of the deal bringing free-agent-to-be-but-later-signed-long-term Matt Holliday from Oakland to St. Louis) to Toronto for Roy Halladay, who is really the pitcher Philly wanted when they "settled" for Cliff Lee, who after recently being traded to Seattle was later traded to to Texas for a group of prospects including Smoak, who many in Milwaukee wanted in return for Fielder.

 

At least it wasn't confusing. What's next, Cliff Lee getting traded to Cleveland?

[wibadgers23]

Wow, has it been quiet or what with the Brewers? Haven't heard any rumors surrounding Prince or anybody for that matter in a few days. Anything could happen, but it looks like we won't be very active at all.

[Sage]

Wow, has it been quiet or what with the Brewers? Haven't heard any rumors surrounding Prince or anybody for that matter in a few days. Anything could happen, but it looks like we won't be very active at all.

Jason A. Churchill (an ESPN guy) said that he likes what Doug Melvin has done. Melvin is asking for what he thinks his guys are worth, and if no one is willing to offer that, he has no need to trade them yet, as they are both under team control for 2011.

That said, it still worries that Melvin & Co. are doing absolutely NOTHING at the deadline. Not trying to get talented prospects for the future, not trying to improve the current team to make a run. Just standing pat. That worries me.

[Oldcity]

Rosenthal just tweeted that the Brewers are waiting until after the next two games with Cincinnati to decide on any deals. Why am I not surprised at all by such stupid logic? Even if they sweep the Reds they'll still have extremely long odds of making the playoffs. Terrible.

[JohnBriggs12]

Wow, has it been quiet or what with the Brewers? Haven't heard any rumors surrounding Prince or anybody for that matter in a few days. Anything could happen, but it looks like we won't be very active at all.

Jason A. Churchill (an ESPN guy) said that he likes what Doug Melvin has done. Melvin is asking for what he thinks his guys are worth, and if no one is willing to offer that, he has no need to trade them yet, as they are both under team control for 2011.

That said, it still worries that Melvin & Co. are doing absolutely NOTHING at the deadline. Not trying to get talented prospects for the future, not trying to improve the current team to make a run. Just standing pat. That worries me.

I think you could see a minor move or two. They have to clear a spot for Hawkins in the bullpen. That could mean they DFA a guy like Riske, or deal him or someone else. I'm sure Melvin would listen to an offer for Bush if one comes along.

 

I think Melvin might explore the market if the Brewer were to sweep the Reds, but he'd be looking not only for help this year, but next as well because you can't give up prospects, especially arms, with playoffs still pretty remote.

 

The Fielder talk died when Melvin asked for Danks or Floyd. The Sox were the only realistic partner for Fielder but that deal was never going to happen. If I were Melvin, just for fun, I'd float a Dave Bush and a lower level prospect (Scarpetta for instance) for Daniel Hudson proposal to Kenny Williams. Sox are in a little panic that Hudson might not be seasoned enough for a playoff run. They might have a greater need for an experienced arm than a big lefty bat.

[wibadgers23]

Rosenthal just tweeted that the Brewers are waiting until after the next two games with Cincinnati to decide on any deals. Why am I not surprised at all by such stupid logic? Even if they sweep the Reds they'll still have extremely long odds of making the playoffs. Terrible.

I'm also not surprised one bit by their logic. We saw it last year and we're seeing it again this year.