The trade value of Prince Fielder (part 2)

[Invader3K]

Jeff Passan with some info to chew on regarding Prince:

 

 

So Fielder’s potential suitors fall into two categories: those who want to curry favor between now and free agency, and those who need a mercenary. The latter encompasses one team particularly: Tampa Bay, which, one source close to the team indicated, “won’t go near the guy.” Fielder’s arbitration next year will take him to around $16 million, far too much for the Rays.

 

-----

Continued from:

 

viewtopic.php?p=624753#p624753

 

Original Lead:

 

viewtopic.php?t=22280

[JohnBriggs12]

Jeff Passan with some info to chew on regarding Prince:

 

So Fielder’s potential suitors fall into two categories: those who want to curry favor between now and free agency, and those who need a mercenary. The latter encompasses one team particularly: Tampa Bay, which, one source close to the team indicated, “won’t go near the guy.” Fielder’s arbitration next year will take him to around $16 million, far too much for the Rays.

Passan threw one really, really interesting name out there: Brandon Belt. Now everyone talks about pitching and yes it would be nice if Prince brought back pitching help, but his absence does leave a huge whole in the lineup that will need to be filled. Belt (what a name for a slugger!) is a tall (6'5"), lean (195 lb) lefty swinging 22 year old 1B, drafted by the Giants in round 5 of 2009. All he's done this year (his first in pro ball) is put up this line between high A and AA: .388/.488/.653, with more walks (61) than strikeouts (58), and 15 HR in 317 AB's.

 

Fielder for Belt and and even a second tier pitching prospect might be worth considering when you consider the salary saved could be used for additional pitching, and having Fielder's replacement (possibly as soon as mid 2011 the way he's progressing) back in the deal.

[Invader3K]

I'm not against dealing Prince (or even Hart) for a very high ceiling position player. If someone like Belt or a Mike Trout (just as an example) is available in a trade, I don't think you can turn it down necessarily.

[kramnoj]

Fielder for Belt and and even a second tier pitching prospect might be worth considering when you consider the salary saved could be used for additional pitching

 

We don't know enough about Belt to think that his fantastic stats this season are representative of his value. Gamel had an OPS over 1.100 through June of 2008, he then OPSed about .650 the rest of the season. There were reasons that Belt would have lasted into the 5th round, and he wasn't one of the top 100 prospects headed into this season. It would be foolish to trade away Fielder for a player based on this limited data.

 

As far as the salary that can be used for additional pitching, that only is useful if it's actually converted wisely. I don't think there's enough supply to meet the market's demand, even with the tens of millions that the Brewers have to spend.

[JohnBriggs12]

Fielder for Belt and and even a second tier pitching prospect might be worth considering when you consider the salary saved could be used for additional pitching

 

We don't know enough about Belt to think that his fantastic stats this season are representative of his value. Gamel had an OPS over 1.100 through June of 2008, he then OPSed about .650 the rest of the season. There were reasons that Belt would have lasted into the 5th round, and he wasn't one of the top 100 prospects headed into this season. It would be foolish to trade away Fielder for a player based on this limited data.

 

As far as the salary that can be used for additional pitching, that only is useful if it's actually converted wisely. I don't think there's enough supply to meet the market's demand, even with the tens of millions that the Brewers have to spend.

Ah but we do know this about Belt. He came from a high profile college program (Texas), where he also did some pitching. There are any number of reasons he fell to the 5th round. Quite possibly his tall lean build raised question marks. I don't know who is agent is, but since he didn't play at all professionally in 2009, my guess is he had a high profile agent that may have scared some teams in the draft. The key question is not where he was drafted in 2009, but if there was a draft held today, that involved the guys that were eligible last year, my guess is he's a sure fire first rounder.

 

We also know that the Giants started him in High A ball. There aren't too many 5th rounders, even from high profile college programs, that start professionally in the California League. So the Giants obviously knew something. He's already moved up to AA where he's continued to hammer. His relatively low K rate suggests, he's not the least bit over-matched either.

Is he completely without risk? Of course not. No prospect ever is. But if he continues to rake, a year from now he'd likely be completely untouchable. Maybe you'd need to expand a deal to make it work, but if the plan is to trade both Hart and Fielder, finding a top flight near major league ready replacement for one of them is not a bad idea.

[RyDogg66]

At this juncture I am placing the odds of a Fielder trade this year at 1% and a Fielder trade before he hits free agency at about 5%. I just think that with all of the variables taken into consideration, that there isnt much of a return for him. Certainly not enough to quell the backlash from trading him.

[Baldkin]

A bit more on Belt:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/7/16/1573696/brandon-belt

 

John, I watched Belt play at least 6 games on TV during the NCAA

Regionals and World Series last year, and I’ve seen 2 clips of him from

his San Jose tenure this Spring. IMHO, if you look at the changes he’s

made between his last year at Texas and now, the shortened swing is not

the main thing that stands out. The big change that he’s made is in how

he gets a full hip-turn in his swing now, without going too far and

“flying-open” on his front side. This allows him to pull the ball to

RF with power generated mainly from his hips and lower body, while the

shortened swing and the way that he keeps his weight back still allows

him to hit line drives to the Left-Centerfield gap with authority.

At Texas he started his swing with a very closed stance and then

strided, and threw his hips, toward left-center. He just didn’t rotate

or pop his hips to get any of his lower body into his swing. Basically,

all of his power had to come from his arms and shoulders. Even though

he’s a big guy, this robbed him of his natural power and turned him into

almost a slap-hitter.

 

[brewmann04]

I can see Prince being dealt in the offseason but he will definitly be moved cause we can't walk away with 2 draft picks.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/98762219.html

 

Looks like the Giants and the White Sox are potential suitors before the deadline. Rays are definitely not a suitor.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://sportsillustrated..../index.html?eref=writers

 

Interesting stuff from Heyman. Fielder #1 player available at deadline, also thinks we'll keep him for 2011, which won't happen.

[Invader3K]

I'm thinking more and more that Prince will be dealt in the winter, rather than before July 31st. I haven't really heard one substantive rumor regarding him and what another team is willing to give up to acquire him at this point.

[wibadgers23]

New article on Prince Fielder and possible trade to White Sox:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/422204-mlb-trade-rumors-will-prince-fielder-be-going-to-the-chicago-white-sox

[Invader3K]

Well, that article seems pretty speculative to me (as most of Bleacher Report is...notice how all their headlines end with a question mark?). That said, I think Hudson and Beckham would be tough to turn down.

[nate82]

I wouldn't trust anything that comes from bleacher report.

[Invader3K]

Here's the exact quote from Buster Olney's article:

 

Some executives are convinced that the Milwaukee Brewers will move Prince Fielder before the trade deadline -- "If you're going to do it, now's the time, because he can impact two pennant races," said one GM -- but others are not so sure, because Milwaukee will not find a high number of bidders. Fielder would fit the Chicago White Sox perfectly, and Chicago GM Kenny Williams is a deal-maker who is capable of putting together something big in a short period of time. But rival officials aren't sure whether the White Sox could satisfy the Brewers without putting Daniel Hudson and Gordon Beckham in an offer, and Beckham is in the process of turning around his season; his home run Thursday was the 13th extra-base hit in his past 27 games.

[TooLiveBrew]

The BR article is pure speculation... based on speculation from sportswriters. I have to agree with Invader -- there just hasn't been anything substantive enough yet to believe that Prince is headed anywhere this season. That could certainly change, though.

Also agree that Hudson + Beckham would be a sweet return.

[Hate those Rodents]

I think Hudson and Beckham for Fielder is a solid trade to probably pull the trigger on if offered. However, adding Beckham sure would complicate our infield picture even more, and with Lawrie on the cusp soon as well.

[dadofandrew]

Beckham would play 3B while McGehee moved to 1B, in the short-term. Long-term, one would assume Weeks would be replaced by Beckham or Lawrie, but no one knows where Brett will end up.

[TooLiveBrew]

One reason I like Beckham is that he could replace Weeks at 2B if Rickie winds up moving on. I don't believe Lawrie will be a second baseman, and if my faith in Gamel is rewarded, he'd step in at third with Beckham sliding over to second.

[Gobias Industries]

One reason I like Beckham is that he could replace Weeks at 2B if Rickie winds up moving on. I don't believe Lawrie will be a second baseman, and if my faith in Gamel is rewarded, he'd step in at third with Beckham sliding over to second.

Plus, his pre at-bat song is The Outfield - Your Love. Me likey.

 

Colbyjack mentioned the Hudson/Beckham "rumor" a few pages back and a few days before everyone else started talking about it on here. I was surprised it didn't garner a stronger reaction right away.

 

If the White Sox are going for it, aren't they gonna need a stop gap at 2b? They'd probably also want a SP.

 

I'd go their choice of Counsell/Inglett, Bush, and Fielder for Beckham and Hudson. That's a good trade for both teams.

[Diggr14]

With the White Sox being in it to win it this season.. and with Peavy down for the year. A perfect stop gap is Dave Bush.

 

 

A Fielder/Bush for Hudson/Beckham/Holmberg/Viciedo swap works.

 

 

I'd move Lawrie to 1b. His bat translates. Keep McGehee at 3rd (he already plays his position well - Gamel's future is not in Milwaukee. He can't field 3b legitimately and hasnt shown the power to think a RF transition is appropriate)

 

I'd be extending Weeks as soon as I made this deal.. and Beckham is now a super utility guy.

[Gobias Industries]

Beckham is way too talented to be stuck as a utility guy.

 

I'd probably look to trade Casey to a contender at this deadline. He's solid but replaceable. Beckham would be our new 3rd baseman.

[Never Outhustled]

Beckham is way too talented to be stuck as a utility guy.

 

I'd probably look to trade Casey to a contender at this deadline. He's solid but replaceable. Beckham would be our new 3rd baseman.

 

Detroit just lost Brandon Inge. McGehee fits them well. What does Detroit have that we want?

[Gobias Industries]

Detroit just lost Brandon Inge. McGehee fits them well. What does Detroit have that we want?

What's the deal with Casey Crosby? Did he go under the knife again? A lot of upside there.

 

I'd like to get Andrew Oliver. He got hit around in his brief stint, but he could be in the rotation next year.

[Never Outhustled]

 

Keep McGehee at 3rd (he already plays his position well - Gamel's future is not in Milwaukee. He can't field 3b legitimately and hasnt shown the power to think a RF transition is appropriate)

This is not a worse defensive 3B in baseball than McGehee. Jorge Cantu is the only one thats as bad. Gamel is better.