MLB future power rankings by ESPN

[torts]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9612015/mlb-future-power-rankings-2013-update

 

bottom of the league baby based on the opinions of three ESPN analysts! the best is the "mobility" number, which is based on players under contract over the next 5 years and their value and potential moveability... after next year the ONLY non-arb contracts currently on the books are Braun, Gomez, Lucroy and Loshe. yet the dodgers have a mobility of 22! !!!!!!!!!!!!! come on! 5 players either in, or about to be in their 30's in contracts over $18 million EACH, plus two other contracts of 8 million, so thats 7 PLAYERS signed for at least 5 years, yet they've got a higher "mobility" score? cmon...

[Fear The Chorizo]

I did a detailed review of contract commitments per team some time ago - from what I remember the Brewers were in the middle of the pack regarding payroll commitments for two-three years out. That does stress a small market team trying to be a mid-big market player. I don't buy them being at the bottom of the future rankings, though - too much is put on prospect rankings for players expected to just debut in the big leagues as stars. Since the Brewers' system isn't highly regarded right now it's natural to assume they're in for a long scuffle.

 

The Dodgers getting a high mobility score probably has more to do with the mountains of money they have to spend - if any of those players on long term contracts fall off the cliff and are untradeable, they can afford to eat salary without them producing and bring in someone else. The Brewers aren't in a position to pay someone to play elsewhere (probably exhibit A will be having Weeks on the roster next season even though he's been bad and hurt for the past few years). ESPN probably sees Braun's contract and current suspension as a huge anchor dragging the team down moving forward - if he isn't an MVP-caliber player after the suspension, it is going to be a huge issue for Milwaukee.

[torts]

Mobility: Do they have a lot of young, cheap players? Or old, immovable guys?

 

that is the definition of mobility for that "review", not whether or not they can afford to eat money on a contract if a player stinks. They were given a 30 in finance, which would account for paying for bad players... but hypothetically, in 3 years when Adrian Gonzalez is 33/34, getting $21 million, and he stinks, is he movable still? or Greinke? or Crawford? and I get the Weeks comment, but theres only one year left of weeks under contract, not 4 or 5, so I can understand the brewers having a low score, but a 5, and ranked the worst mobility in baseball? not buying it.

[monty57]

Maybe they look at it as "would you trade Adrian Gonzalez for Caleb Gindl?" How about Zach Greinke for Logan Schafer? If not, then the Dodgers have the more "movable" players. While the Dodgers have looked to rid themselves of the likes of Capuano, the Brewers are potentially looking to salary dump Weeks and Ramirez, who comprise around a third of the Brewers' probable payroll.

 

I get what you are saying, and I am certainly not one who likes paying big money to guys who are past their prime, but it's important to remember that "young and cheap" is one thing while "Young, cheap and good" is another.

 

Peralta and Segura are the only guys who have somewhat shown the ability to be above average MLB players while they are in their pre-arby years, but most teams have one or two pre-arby guys who should be above average MLB players during their pre-arby years. I'd say the Brewers' older players are pretty immovable, and once their contracts are up, they'll "move" to retirement, while the Brewers won't have much talent with which to replace them.

 

It's an insider article, so I can't read it, but I'd say that looking at the franchise as a whole, the Brewers' future is as bleak as any other team in baseball.

[torts]

forgot it was insider... i'll just cut/paste the brewers part

 

 

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/mlb/future_power_rankings/2013/r2/mil.jpg

 

The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.

 

The Overview

The Brewers deserve credit for making some all-in moves in an effort to win while Ryan Braun is in his prime, but some of those deals have left them with an awkward roster that saw them giving Yuniesky Betancourt extensive time at first base. They surely regret the Kyle Lohse signing, which cost them a first-round draft pick, and now face a bleak future with their hopes pinned to Braun, who has become a league-wide pariah. The Brewers will get a first read this winter on how much Braun's situation will impact their fan base's enthusiasm for ticket-buying. -- Buster Olney

 

The Dilemma

Milwaukee must decide if the rotation of Lohse, Yovani Gallardo, Wily Peralta and PCL pitcher of the year Johnny Hellweg is good enough to build around, or if they need to try to trade Gallardo and Lohse in an effort to add some young arms. -- Jim Bowden

 

The New "Guy"

Center fielder Tyrone Taylor was the team's second-round pick in 2012 out of Torrance (Calif.) HS, but has outplayed its two first-rounders, with great athleticism and a high contact rate thanks to a simplified swing, as well as doubles power at age 19 in the Midwest League. -- Keith Law

[Roderick]

The whole poll is out of whack that you can't put any stock into the numbers. Under their definition we should at least have a big "mgmt" number, and the finance number is under where are actual payrolls have been also. I tried to make some sense of it, but there is no point. Basically you can figure three guys at ESPN really don't like Milwaukee (Braun and the minors - Law).

[jerichoholicninja]

The "all in" moves have nothing to do with Yuni getting time at first base. Injuries, lots and lots of injuries first of all, and an irrational love affair with a horrible player are to blame for that.

[craigharmann]

It's ESPN. I don't put much stock in anything they say.

[torts]

yeah, I realize that, still bugs me some

[Thurston Fluff]

How is Braun being a pariah in baseball equate to him not playing well? If Braun was always on PEDs and is now going to have to play PED free it no doubt would mean less production. If he just took them during the 2011 season to get healthy then one would assume he is going to be the same old Braun. That would mean he is still playing on a team friendly contract for his ability. I could understand if they said something to the effect they believe he was always a juicer and now that contract is going to be a problem. What being a pariah has to do with it is beyond me.

[Oxy]

How is Braun being a pariah in baseball equate to him not playing well? If Braun was always on PEDs and is now going to have to play PED free it no doubt would mean less production. If he just took them during the 2011 season to get healthy then one would assume he is going to be the same old Braun. That would mean he is still playing on a team friendly contract for his ability. I could understand if they said something to the effect they believe he was always a juicer and now that contract is going to be a problem. What being a pariah has to do with it is beyond me.

 

His mental state can certainly affect his performance. Tiger Woods is a different golfer now than he was 5 years ago (although he seems to finally be recovering something). If Braun's performance falters from his career norms, people will assume that his former numbers were a result of juicing and blame his fall on that, but I would doubt that the chemicals (or lack thereof) will have nearly the affect on his game that his mental state will have. He was a respected player, leader in the clubhouse, and the 2nd most powerful person in the Brewers organization (yes, 2 years ago I think his word held more weight with Attanasio than Melvin's). Now, he is just a guy who nobody trusts. That will make it far more difficult to come to the ballpark everyday and play with confidence.

[Thurston Fluff]

His mental state can certainly affect his performance. Tiger Woods is a different golfer now than he was 5 years ago (although he seems to finally be recovering something). If Braun's performance falters from his career norms, people will assume that his former numbers were a result of juicing and blame his fall on that, but I would doubt that the chemicals (or lack thereof) will have nearly the affect on his game that his mental state will have.

 

I am not a believer that outside distractions effect performance for any length of time. I think it can for a season at most. Prince seems to be dealing with some of that now in Detroit. So I understand it does have some effect. But I doubt it is something that carries over for years on end.

I don't think the comparison to Tiger is all that accurate either. Tiger is widely reported as kind of a jerk in person. Hell even half his family doesn't like him. He has very little support in his personal life because of it. So to the extent that it did effect Woods it had more to do with not having people around him to help deal with it. All that said Tiger Woods is still the top rated golfer in the world. Not winning majors has as much to do with a much improved golf world and Tiger's age/health than his mental state due to outside distractions. That and he got rid of some of the people who helped him attain greatness.

Braun seems to have decent personal relationships on the team. I think it is less likely to effect Braun's performance because he isn't going to be facing people in the clubhouse who want him to fail day in and day out. Even assuming it effects him for a whole season, which I think is unlikely, I think his contract being a problem for years to come for the reasons they said is far fetched.

[monty57]

There are questions surrounding Braun, so any hypothetical "guesstimate" of what will happen in the future should put a negative on him until he proves the negative doesn't exist. How big a negative is debatable, but a negative exists.

 

If the article is talking about "movability," then Braun's suspension most certainly affects his "movability." He could still be traded, but not for as much as he would've garnered prior to the whole PED thing came out. There are fans who will boo him, not buy tickets because he's on the team, and "demand" the Brewers trade him. If this group becomes vocal enough (if ticket sales drop and the presumed cause is Braun's PED case), then Attanasio (who I believe makes decisions based on what will affect ticket sales) will have a decision to make. I don't think he should do it, but it is possible that Braun is traded, and they won't get "equal value" in return.

 

Outside of Braun, we have a few nice complementary players (.800-ish OPS guys) in Gomez, Segura and Lucroy and a lot of question marks for position players, but no one like Braun or Fielder mashing a .900+ OPS in the middle of the order. For pitching, I assume Lohse will regress significantly over the next two years, Gallardo has big question marks around him, and while the young guys have promise, none really project to be top-of-the order/ace-type guys.

 

Of course fans of a team will look for things to be excited about, but I don't see how any neutral outside observer could have much of a positive outlook on the Brewers' future. I think Olney hit it on the head when he said essentially that the Brewers made an effort to go "all in" and now they're suffering the hangover from that party. Throw in bad drafts/development, and you've got a mess. If Braun remains a Brewer and doesn't regress due to PED, age, injury or anything else, then the Brewers should have an average-to-above-average offense, with a below average pitching staff, in a division with three playoff-caliber teams, and one team that's on the upward swing after a big rebuild.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think Braun's ego is too big to let this have an affect on his play. He played a whole season and a half living a lie and he put up some of his best numbers.

[logan82]

I don't think the effects on Brauns play will be from the mental side. I think they will be from injuries and age. How much of his career to this point has been helped with quicker recovery from injuries due to PED use? We don't know but Braun has had one injury or another effecting his play almost every single year. What if those would have been slightly worse even half the time? How much time does he miss? How does it impact his play if he doesn't miss time.