2007 Vent Thread, Part 3

[RU Rah Rah]

What he suffers in is when he's compared to other set-up men who have ERAs half of what his is.

 

I totally agree that he's not in the same league as Linebrink, etc. But I also don't think he's the worst the league, either (as was suggested earlier).

 

I mean, Cappy's ERA is twice what Jake Peavy's is, but I don't think he should be removed from the rotation.

[endaround]

Turnbow is 23rd coming into today in reliver's expected wins added, just behind Francisco Rodriquez and ahead of Joe Nathan.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

And you'd think the White Sox could win one lousy game against the Cubs. They are officially the most useless team in baseball.

[RU Rah Rah]

Turnbow is 23rd coming into today in reliver's expected wins added, just behind Francisco Rodriquez and ahead of Joe Nathan.[/]

 

So . . . he's in the bottom third of set-up guys? I hadn't thought he was quite that bad, but .

[Never Outhustled]

I totally agree that he's not in the same league as Linebrink, etc. But I also don't think he's the worst the league, either (as was suggested earlier).

 

Your right in that he's not the worst, I kind of said that for effect. However, he is in the lower tier, and thats the only spot on the team you could say that about. It should be rectified, as it doesn't cost a ton to fix, and the solution could also give us an option to close next year, something we don't have now.

[RU Rah Rah]

However, he is in the lower tier, and thats the only spot on the team you could say that about. It should be rectified, as it doesn't cost a ton to fix, and the solution could also give us an option to close next year, something we don't have now.

 

No argument there.

[DougJones43]

Turnbow is a tough call. He can be so dominating at times. However, it also seems he can be a little too erratic for the high leverage set-up role. If possible, I'd sacrifice some of the dominance for a little bit more steadiness out of that spot. If we are able to trade for somebody like that (or maybe Villanueva could be that guy?), then maybe we should try to uprade.

 

Otherwise, I'm not totally unsatisfied with Turnbow, although I do get nervous when he enters a game.

[Brian the Automator]

[ All that chart shows is how many oppurtunities the Brewer set-up man gets. Which of those guys is worse than T-bow? I'll give you Baes for Bal, even though he only has 1 BS. Rauch has a higher ERA, but that happened when he had to close some games. ]

 

Derrick has 20 holds vs. 3 losses... While there are better setup guys out there for sure, I think his bad ERA has a lot to do with some outings where he got shelled.... ERA for relievers isn't really that reliable of a stat to go off.

[Ennder]

Quote:

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Turnbow is 23rd coming into today in reliver's expected wins added, just behind Francisco Rodriquez and ahead of Joe Nathan.

 

So . . . he's in the bottom third of set-up guys? I hadn't thought he was quite that bad, but .

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That would put him higher than many setup guys and higher than some closers.

[RU Rah Rah]

So what's the alternative to Turnbow, though? Is it Villanueva, or Reliever X who can be pried loose from some also-ran team for Kevin Mench and a bag of balls? (I mean that as an honest question, not as "There is no alternative.")

[Ennder]

I would think Wise is too fragile for the role since he can't seem to pitch every other day. That pretty much leaves CV and Turnbow as our options. I dont' think we'll be able to trade for anyone that is a huge upgrade over those two, not unless we give up a real prospect in the deal.

[BraunsBoyfriend]

TBow is what he is. An erratic late game pitcher who either gives the opponent no chance (slider is working) or makes a real contest out of it (slider isn't working).

 

He's 20-3 (in opportunities) which is a little below average I think, but we have a lot of close wins. His ERA doesn't mean much because with these guys, if it's blown it's pretty much blown and a bad blow or 2 will really destroy the ERA. It's all about Holds/Chances.

 

If you're holding 90% of them you're at the top of your position. He's held 86% of his chances. That's pretty good.

 

We can't freak out every time a guy blows something when it's a 1 run game. The other team has professional batters too and they're going to get hits and score runs, even against your late inning pitching gods. It's part of the game. 20-3 isn't too bad, especially when you consider we've won more close games than lost overall.

[BraunsBoyfriend]

His meltdowns frustrate me as well, and he didn't get the job done today -- period. However, in his defense, in his previous 8 IP, he had given up zero runs, one hit, and two 2 BB's.

 

Bingo! These are really great numbers. He's doing fine. You have to expect a blown opportunity from time to time. He's had 23 opportunities this year I believe and 3 of them have been failures. Hardly uncommon. If he had blown 6 of them to date, then we probably have a problem. But he's at 86% right now.

[BraunsBoyfriend]

I should edit that he's actually doing better than I thought. He has 3 blows on the year but 20 holds, 1 save and 1 win. That's 22 out of 25 good appearances. 88% of the time we are successful with Tbow pitching. Those are good numbers and something I'm comfortable with.

 

He's not going to be perfect. Please give me a setup man in the league that is? You will lose 1 run baseball games in the 8th and 9th sometimes. Get over it.

[aracko]

With Coco behind him, I think Capellan could be a solid 8th inning guy. Maybe my memory is scarred but I seem to remember Coco bailing this team out quite often when TBOW couldnt get it done in the 8th.

[DougJones43]

I think Capellan could be a solid 8th inning guy

 

Yikes. I disagree. I'm not even sure Capellan deserves a roster spot.

[Brian the Automator]

[ Maybe my memory is scarred but I seem to remember Coco bailing this team out quite often when TBOW couldnt get it done in the 8th. ]

 

Checking the game logs, I think he's only bailed out Derrick once.

[logan82]

Capellan hasn't exactly been all that great either. He walked 2 guys and gave up a hit to load the bases with nobody out today. He hasn't been throwing strikes very well most of his times out this year. His velocity is also down. Tbow blew it today, but he is getting the job done more often than not.

[logan82]

I see twice where he went more than an inning. I thought I remembered more times than that, but I would trust the game logs over my memory.

[BraunsBoyfriend]

I reference

this stat:

 

Tbow leads the NL in holds. And everyone at the top has around the same W/L ratio.

 

In short he's our setup, 8th inning guy and he's not too bad at it.

[Brian the Automator]

[ I see twice where he went more than an inning. I thought I remembered more times than that, but I would trust the game logs over my memory. ]

 

One time was to bail out Turnbow, and the other time was because Sheets went 8 1/3.

[aracko]

Quote:

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[ Maybe my memory is scarred but I seem to remember Coco bailing this team out quite often when TBOW couldnt get it done in the 8th.

 

 

Checking the logs he has done it once ]

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Thanks gentlemen - I STAND CORRECTED.

[TooLiveBrew]

With TBow, he's either lights-out or trouble. For those who want someone more steady, it's important to keep in mind that the 'steady' option may well yeild similar aggregate results, but without the extremes of Derek. I'll take him over the 'steady' option as a set-up man, simply bc when he's on, no one can damage him.

 

When he's off his game, it's certainly ugly, but as I stated, his electric outings do their share to cancel out the gross ones. If the 'steady' guy is simply not as good or bad as Derek consistently, I want to take my chances with the guy that can be untouchable (and often is)

[Never Outhustled]

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I should edit that he's actually doing better than I thought. He has 3 blows on the year but 20 holds, 1 save and 1 win. That's 22 out of 25 good appearances. 88% of the time we are successful with Tbow pitching.

 

1 of those holds he was credited for came in a game he took the loss, so wipe that 1 out. He had 3 games he lost , plus the blow today.

 

Also, I think ERA does tell some of the story for a reliever. In todays game, he didn't just allow the game to be tied, he he gave up the go ahead run too. if you look at game logs from top set-up men, they have more games that are blown saves where they give up just 1 run, thus still giving there team a chance to win.

[brewmann04]

time to try Balfour