2007 Vent Thread, Part 5

[Fatter than Joey]

To me, it's pretty simple. The team's built to play in Miller Park. Fly ball hitters and a home run friendly park... That's just the way it's going to be. The team's going to go gangbusters on home, and do less well on the road.

 

I'm not sure this is the case.

 

The Brewers have the most HRs on the road in the NL -- hit more FBs on the road, and have a pretty similar GB/FB ratio on the road and at home.

 

To me, the key is amassing enough quality pitching

 

Word that

 

I don't think there's any manager on the planet that could make this current club a better road team...

 

(crickets)

 

If you mean by "the planet" -- Venus, then I would agree.

[jason21nl]

whatever the problem is, I hope they find it, and correct it. for the first time ever, I might pass up on driving down to milwaukee for a game because I'm so upset by how they are playing.

[Brian the Automator]

[ If you mean by "the planet" -- Venus, then I would agree. ]

 

Let me rephrase... I don't believe Ned's the best manager in the league. I'm sure there are other managers in the league that could have the Brewers playing X many games (where X varies on your opinion of Yost) better than they're playing now overall...

 

...but I don't think there's a manager out there who would somehow have the Brewers playing winning ball on the road.

 

...unless somehow we could coax Earl Weaver out of retirement.

[danzig6767]

I refuse to buy that there's just some bad mojo surrounding the team on the road, nor do I think Ned's got some weird road-managing scheme vs. home-managing scheme.

 

Either:

a) The team is _somehow_ constructed to be better at Miller Park

b) Balls have fallen the team's way at home, and not fallen the team's way on the road for the past couple of years

 

I don't think it's either A or B,i have no explanation for it honestly.While i'm no big fan of Yost and wouldn't mind him being replaced,i can't fault him that key cogs in our pitching staff are much worse on the road.We also draw more walks at home and it's a solid part of why our home OBP is .337 and .321 on the road.Last year we drew 273 walks at home and only 229 on the road.Why do guys hack more on the road?Rattled by crowds and get more impatient?

 

Now i might be 100 percent wrong about this and i'm not sure how to look it up,but it seems on the road our pitchers are more prone to giving up big innings.Instead of stringing out more often say 9-10 hits over many innings at home,on the road we get more of these innings where mini or fullblown pitching meltdowns happen.

[sbrylski]

Home ERA - 3.73

Away ERA - 4.60

 

Home FIP - 4.06

Away FIP - 4.09

 

Overall ERA - 4.14

 

Difference in pitching preformances looks to be mostly luck. BABIP is the culprit, with it being better than average while at home and below average on the road.

[TheCrew07]

I don't want argue semantics about talent and experience when it's pretty clear you're both missing the gist of my posts.

 

I doesn't matter if you agree or disagree because you're going to believe what you believe in, and likewise for myself. I'm no writer and will probably never convince anyone of anything on a message board.

 

I highly recommend the following books if you're interested in opinions of some greatest minds to ever coach their particular sports:

 

Don Shula

www.amazon.com/Everyones-...556&sr=8-1

 

John Wooden

www.amazon.com/Wooden-Lea...235&sr=8-1

Actually, there are tons of good books about Wooden, click the related links and I've read at least 4 of those. His Pyramid of success has been copied by just about everyone who's anyone in basketball and football.

 

Vince Lombardi

www.amazon.com/When-Pride...298&sr=8-2

 

Vince Lombardi

www.amazon.com/Essential-...778&sr=8-3

 

Brian linked Weaver's book earlier this year, and it's more about baseball strategy, but there's still nuggets about players in there.

 

I get a coaching book or 2 every year for christmas, so I've read all of the above books in the last couple of years, sometimes twice. The Lombardi quote book will be getting quite a bit of work starting next week. While baseball lends itself to mathematical analysis, it's still a sport, and the players are pretty much the same regardless what game they play.

 

edit. I'm lame and cut and pasted the Shula link to 3 of 4, fixed.

[Ennder]

Books by coaches of a sport are most likely going to just be a book of cliches because thats what most coaches deal in, no matter how good they are.

[adambr2]

Brewers, Brewers, keep turning up the heat!

 

Do you guys remember early in the season, when if we had a lead after the 7th, no matter how small, we could pretty much just shut it off and tack it up in the win column?

 

Yeah, that was kind of fun. It was more fun than the current situation with a small lead after 7 innings, which is placing bets on whether our setup man or closer will be the one to squander the lead.

[watertown28]

i dont even feel compy with even a 6 run lead anymore...just a matter of like what you said... who is going to choke in the pen

[danzig6767]

Books by coaches of a sport are most likely going to just be a book of cliches because thats what most coaches deal in, no matter how good they are.

 

So your theory on great coaches in sports is that they mostly deal in and believe in cliches that really that aren't relevant,but they kinda foolishly think their beliefs were actually worthwhile in the success of their teams?

[TheCrew07]

Quote:

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Books by coaches of a sport are most likely going to just be a book of cliches because thats what most coaches deal in, no matter how good they are.

---

 

Yep because the opinions of those that have had the most success managing people aren't worthy of your consideration because there might be a cliche or two involved. I find it humorous how someone that bemoans the lack of general understanding in sabermetrics would simply dismiss the works and opinions of people who actually were involved in sports without giving them their due consideration. It seems fairly hypocritical to me to ask people to consider your point of view while never truly considering an alternative to your own.

 

For the record, you won't find many cliches in those books. You will find philosophies for success, what they believe in, experiences with different players and situations, and how they accomplished their goals.

 

There's a large gulf between analyzing a sport, and playing and coaching a sport, that some people around here don't seem to fully appreciate.

[Ennder]

Nope I'm sure there is a lot of valuable information in the books by those coaches, but I highly doubt the books somehow prove that team character has more to do with winning than team talent like your posts suggest.

[ccbrew]

Brewers, Brewers, turn the heat back on.

[TheCrew07]

You just don't get it...

 

"Talent" isn't just physical ability, it's everything that goes into a player to produce the end result of what you see on the field. The Brewers are as physically gifted as any team in the league. It's not just that easy that you can pencil in something on paper and it happens on the field, things aren't that black and white. Getting the players to play their best day in and day out is not an easy task, it's not as easy as "they are professionals who motivate themselves". Don't take my word for it, take the word of the players who played for these coaches, everyone from Wooden, to Herb Brooks, to Vince Lombardi. Sanchez is a clown, but he's physically gifted, he's the classic "million dollar body with a 10 cent brain".

 

If your head isn't in the right place, you aren't going to be successful, and that is what slumps are baseball. Mini slumps where a guy hits the ball right at people I'll grant are mostly luck, but that's not where Jenkins was last year, or Weeks is this year. What do players talk about? Seeing the ball better and feeling good at the plate? What does that really mean, what are they really talking about? Again it's not like their eye sight suddenly improved.

 

Villy hitting the corners and Villy nibbling too much are totally different things. His control was fine yesterday, he just wasted pitches and gave up a walk and a 2 strike hit. Again, talent wasn't the issue, pitch selection and location were.

 

Go ahead and keep posting cryptic responses that completely dismiss the idea without posting anything of value or substance. I never said the books supported my opinion about the Brewers, but there's a wealth of information about improving performance, managing people, and becoming a better person. It doesn't matter if you're interested in sports, business, or teaching, there's something to be learned from these people. The common thread is that all of them feel or felt that "heart" and "competitive fire" were more important than physical talent. It may be cliche, but it doesn't it make any less true. Every year I see this with my boys, I could give example of player after player but it wouldn't mean anything to you because you didn't know the kids, and don't believe in the concept.

[Ennder]

Quote:

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The common thread is that all of them feel or felt that "heart" and "competitive fire" were more important than physical talent. It may be cliche, but it doesn't it make any less true

---

 

its fine, we'll agree to disagree because I'll never buy into this. Yes there is more to baseball than physical talent but heart and competitive fire aren't going to win over talent, not over 162 games.

 

I'm a numbers guy, i could care less if Braun hits a HR because he has so much heart or because he's just talented, in the end its all the same he hit a HR.

 

Statistically speaking the Cubs were losing more than they should have earlier in the year and are winning more than they should now, if you want to believe its because they have more competitive fire now than before go ahead, but the fact that their stats haven't really changed says to me that things are bouncing their way.

 

Baseball is an incredibly luck or 'variance' driven game and that controls what happens over a small sample more than the teams character in my opinion. The difference between a win and a loss is whether a ball is hit 2 feet to the right of the SS or right at him many times, sometimes things just don't go your way regardless of your talent or "heart".

[Fatter than Joey]

I refuse to buy that there's just some bad mojo surrounding the team on the road, nor do I think Ned's got some weird road-managing scheme vs. home-managing scheme.

 

Yeah -- I tend to agree as well. -- I suspect though the overall youth of the team may magnify things like "road mojo" in the form of bad preparation, or road routines.

[iluvlamp]

-clears throat- In best Homer voice...

 

Suppan, oh definitly cut

Cordero, cut

Turnbow, cut

Villy, mmmmmm, cut

Yost, cut

Weeks, can't cut him fast enough

Jenkins, cut

Linebrink, well he just got here so, cut

Cappy, big cut

Bush and Shouse, cut and cut

Maddux, cut

[Fatter than Joey]

Well Lamp I'm glad you kept Mench on -- he must be your son?

[Roscoe Chill]

I'd just like to say that I can't stand the argument along the lines of: "How good did you expect the Brewers to be, etc;" or "I didn't expect the Brewers to have the 24-10 start, etc."

 

First off, the Brewers DID start 24-10. They also had a huge lead...and now it's gone. Rationalize all you want, they've blown it.

 

And also, I for one did have high expectations for this team, as did most of you reading this. Maybe you didn't expect them to win the division, but you also didn't expect Ryan Braun to play at an MVP level...go check the Braun prediction thread if you can find it...he's already outproduced most of the predictions.

 

So, to start off so hot and jump out to such a big lead...and have TWO MVP level players in your lineup, and be in the situation the team is in now, trying to hold of the CUBS! The team a lot of people laughed at for their spending spree and managerial hiring, is a huge bummer, I don't know how you can spin it any other way.

 

That is my vent.

[Nearsighted Views]

First off, the Brewers DID start 24-10. They also had a huge lead...and now it's gone. Rationalize all you want, they've blown it.

 

Amen, bother. If there's one thing I can't stand, it's the defeatest attidude that has crept into the minds of Brewers fans for so many years. I'm seeing it now and it's unacceptable. They still have a lead and to use one of my least favorite cliches, "The season starts today."

[Ennder]

Quote:

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First off, the Brewers DID start 24-10. They also had a huge lead...and now it's gone. Rationalize all you want, they've blown it.

---

 

Its not rationalizing though. Its like looking at the Cubs and saying they blew it with their poor start, if they had just played .500 the first month and a half they'd be 7 or 8 games up on the Brewers. Streaks happen, some happen at the start of the year, some in the middle, some at the end. Just because ours happened to start the year doesn't make it any more important than any other streak.

 

I wasn't thinking we'd win 95 games when we were 24-10, I figured we'd have a cold streak to offset it at some point. That 24-10 should not have significantly changed your expectations in my opinion.

[rluzinski]

That 24-10 should not have significantly changed your expectations in my opinion.

 

Going forward, I revised by expectations by about 2 wins. While I would have hoped for the Brewers to do better after their great start, the people who convinced themselves that the Brewers were an elite team after 34 games were setting themselves up for a bitter disappointment. Those that convinced themselves that the Cubs were a terrible team because they were 0-9 in 1 run games to start the season were setting themselves up for another disappointment. Now every other Brewer fan has to suffer for their incorrect judgment.

 

Baseball Prospectus's preseason simulation had the Brewers winning the NL Central by 1 game over the Cubs, 85 wins to 84 wins. That doesn't sound very off right now. The Brewers were never a significantly better team than the Cubs, they just had the significantly better record for a good chunk of the season. Unfortunately, all the luck has evened out for both teams now. Time for season #2. I just hope I am allowed to enjoy it around here without having to read around vent posts in every thread.

[BillScottCanRake]

http://images.lightinguniverse.com/img/i/451/159378_family.jpg

 

Dang Brewers!

[brewers19]

The Brewers are grate?

[brettac1]

I think he was just posting his vent.