Allen Craig and RISP

[homer]

Allen Craig's career slash line (1391 PA):

 

.306/.359/.496

 

Allen Craig's career slash line with runners in scoring position (401 PA):

 

.392/.450/.635

 

 

Discuss

[jerichoholicninja]

401 PA is a decent sample size but still not enough to make any certain judgements about. I think we have to chalk this one up to statistical anomaly.

[dlk9s]

Getting the signs relayed from the runner on second, obviously.

[Baldkin]

Makes me wonder why he doesn't try that hard when no one is on base.

[Funketown]

There might be something there, and there might not. There are 300 or so FT players in the league, so even if nobody in the league is truly better with RISP, we should expect a few to appear to be better. There's a term for this which I'm forgetting. The basic idea is that if you take 300 fair coins and flip them all 20 times, you'll end up concluding that several are unfair using conventional hypothesis testing on each individual coin.

 

This is a similar issue to claiming the Brewers' home record a few years ago was so unlikely it must have been cheating. While the odds of any individual team putting up such a ridiculous home record like the Brewers did that year are really low (probably 1-2%), given that there are 30 teams in the league, the odds that at least one team puts up an abnormal record are pretty high. So in that circumstance concluding that the Brewers had some absurd home field advantage (sign-stealing or stadium sauce) would be fallacious.

 

That's a rambling explanation. If anybody knows the term for what I'm explaining, I know there's a good wiki for it.

 

So basically...Craig may be a magic man with RISP, but I'm not comfortable making that conclusion based on his RISP split.

[Oxy]

Wait, do his career numbers listed there (1300+ PAs) INCLUDE those 400 PAs with guys on base? If so, then his split with the bases empty is even greater-- A LOT greater.

[Daubs]

Allen Craig with bases empty: .283/.327/.457 (722 PA)

[homer]

Wait, do his career numbers listed there (1300+ PAs) INCLUDE those 400 PAs with guys on base? If so, then his split with the bases empty is even greater-- A LOT greater.

 

Good catch. Yes, it did include numbers with runners on base. Even a bigger gap.