Starting rotation for 2014

[MNBrew]

If I were the Brewers I'd look to move Estrada. I think he's been pitching over his head the second half of the season and he'll regress to his normal 4.50 ERA type pitcher next year. Maybe we can find a team desperate for pitching that is willing to give up a solid but not spectacular prospect for him.

Huh? A 4.50 ERA pitcher? Since his 1st 3 years w/ appearances in MLB (2008-2010) entail 31.1 IP, looking at the past 3 years would seem to tell a more accurate tale:

 

2011: 4-8 record, 4.08 ERA, 92.2 IP, 83 H, 29 BB, 88K, 1.21 WHIP

2012: 5-7 record, 3.64 ERA, 138.1 IP, 129 H, 29 BB, 143 K, 1.14 WHIP

2013: 7-4 record, 3.87 ERA, 128 IP, 109 H, 29 BB, 118 K, 1.08 WHIP

 

3-year avg: 5.3 wins - 6.6 losses, 3.84 ERA, 119.2 IP, 107 H, 29 BB, 116.3 K, 1.14 WHIP

 

The only 2 obvious negatives (beyond avoiding the DL in '12 & '13) are an unspectacular W-L record and a slightly increasing HR rate (one every 7.48 IP over the past 3 years; 11, 18, & 19 are the respective individual totals, '11-'13).

 

He's 30 and not one of the prospects, but he's affordable, generally successful, and doesn't have crazy mileage on that arm, which amounts to his being a GREAT asset I don't think you move until there's an in-house surplus of proven SPs and a strong offers knocking down Melvin's door. You can never have too much pitching, as this year again showed. Why would you trade him, let alone for a moderate prospect?

[Mr Southpaw]

"He's 30 and not one of the prospects, but he's affordable, generally successful, and doesn't have crazy mileage on that arm, which amounts to his being a GREAT asset I don't think you move until there's an in-house surplus of proven SPs and a strong offers knocking down Melvin's door."

 

Kinda like Lohse's career.

[torts]

this is a problem I like the brewers having. what to do with starting pitchers.I think Thornburg definitely earned a spot to start next season in the rotation, and I think Nelson will be the first to come up from AAA next yeear should there be an injury, trade or someone flubs the start of the season.

[jerichoholicninja]

Some people just need to accept that Estrada is a serviceable Major League starter.

 

Here is how Marco's 300+ career innings as a starter stack up against Gallardo's career. Gallardo in parenthesis.

ERA 3.94 (3.72)

WHIP 1.12 (1.31)

BAA .241 (.245)

OPS .697 (.700)

K/9 8.6 (8.9)

BB/9 2.01 (3.46)

 

They are pretty similar pitchers. However, one of them people think is a top of the rotation starter and the other people seem to always want out of the rotation.

[jjfanec]

It is not hard to imagine a scenario where all 5 guys in the rotation have an ERA under 4 - Thornburg being the wild card. I could see the starting rotation having an average ERA in the mid to upper 3's which would be enough to top half of the NL and if things break right - healthy Yo, Peralta takes the next step, Thornburg is for real, Lohse stays like he was this year, and Estrada stays close to his last 3 years - this rotation could in the 3.5 area which would be right around the Pirates this year.

 

Now everything could blow up and Yo could be Yo from the start of the year, Peralta regresses, Thornburg pulls a Fiers, Lohse ages quickly, and Estrada falls apart, but I feel pretty good it isnt likely. Outside of Lohse these are not soft tossers that seem likely to regress.

[LouisEly]

Some people don't understand that a 4.00 ERA is a solid #3 starter (4.00 ERA ranked #79 among pitchers with >120IP in 2013). Estrada had a lower ERA than Lance Lynn, Tim Hudson, Jarrod Parker, Trevor Cahill, Matt Cain, Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, R.A. Dickey, Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia, and Edwin Jackson this year, and was only 0.05 behind Matt Garza. Estrada also had more K's than Jered Weaver despite starting three fewer games than Weaver. Only two players who had more K's than Estrada this year pitched fewer innings than he did.

 

The Brewers don't have a #1, but they have a #2 (Lohse), a potential #2 (Peralta), and two #3s (Estrada, Gallardo). Between Thornburg, Burgos, and Fiers they should be able to find a competent #5 with the other two plus Hellweg, Nelson, and Pena developing in Nashville. I don't think the cupboard is nearly as bare as people think.

[jjfanec]

Some people don't understand that a 4.00 ERA is a solid #3 starter (4.00 ERA ranked #79 among pitchers with >120IP in 2013). Estrada had a lower ERA than Lance Lynn, Tim Hudson, Jarrod Parker, Trevor Cahill, Matt Cain, Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, R.A. Dickey, Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia, and Edwin Jackson this year, and was only 0.05 behind Matt Garza. Estrada also had more K's than Jered Weaver despite starting three fewer games than Weaver. Only two players who had more K's than Estrada this year pitched fewer innings than he did.

 

The Brewers don't have a #1, but they have a #2 (Lohse), a potential #2 (Peralta), and two #3s (Estrada, Gallardo). Between Thornburg, Burgos, and Fiers they should be able to find a competent #5 with the other two plus Hellweg, Nelson, and Pena developing in Nashville. I don't think the cupboard is nearly as bare as people think.

 

I agree and would say Gallardo has a chance to be a #2 again. After coming back from injury his K numbers were very solid. He could still be a #3 but the potential for him to bounce back up is there. He also averaged nearly 7 innings a start which is big for him as well.

[brewcrewdue80]

I was high on Estrada to begin 2013 nothing has changed. I said it before Gallardo,Lohse,Estrada our #3 though I like Estrada more to begin this season than Lohse I'll just settle on calling them even. I really believe Estrada has a huge value in trade to a Pitchers ballpark. He has the high K/rate low BB/rate and just has an inflated HR rate. But look at that 2nd half numbers: 58.2IP 33HITS!! That is insane! That means 33/176 or under .200BA....I'm sure there's a couple dbl plays in there but still. .200BAA? That's in Clayton Kershaw's League. You take away a few Cheap HRs at MP and turn them in to outs? Yeah, Marco is Beasting it! He just needs to put a 185+IP season together with these numbers to really make everyone outside of Milw take notice.

I'd really love to see Gallardo be the man shopped as he's the name the team has with 200ip history. Then run 2014 with Lohse,Estrada,Peralta, Thornburg/Nelson/ Hellweg/Jungmann as the 4s/5s mix. 11mil saved on the team payroll can be used somewhere like 1b or RP/MI backup.

Sure having Gallardo would be great for 2014 considering I just see 4 set of Lohse,Gallardo,Estrada,Peralta and then the other 4 trying to find time on the mound to pitch at #5? When all 4 are atop your prospect rankings making room for 2 of them should be a priority. It's time to turnover talent to replenish with talent if this team is going to be like Tampa. Gallardo is the play to trade. Otherwise what we would have to be worried about is watching Melvin&Co send 1 or 2 away of Thornburg/Nelson/Jungmann in trade for a post-season run since there's a blockage on our roster for them.

[JohnBriggs12]

Melvin hinted that they would look at adding a starting pitcher in the offseason. I like the idea of adding a veteran arm that may be coming off an injury who would take a minor league deal with an opt out date or who would be cheap enough that he's not guaranteed a rotation spot. That would give them someone to turn to other than the relatively untested Nelson or Hellweg if there's an injury or ineffectiveness that prompts a change.

[fondybrewfan]

Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Johan Santana are all potentially boom/bust acquisitions that Melvin could look at. The problem is that all of them will certainly get a major league deal and perhaps multiple years.

[brewmann04]

hey it worked for the Bucs with Liarano

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

I am OK with adding a veteran arm as long as he is a clear improvement. I don't want to bring in a Brandon Looper-type who starts because he makes more and blocks the younger guys. Personally, I think Thornburg is ready. I would also wait a year before trading a starter. Most of our pitching prospects need more time in the minors. I like Burgos as a middle or long reliever. I think he can be effective one time through the order.

[brewcrewdue80]

I am OK with adding a veteran arm as long as he is a clear improvement. I don't want to bring in a Brandon Looper-type who starts because he makes more and blocks the younger guys. Personally, I think Thornburg is ready. I would also wait a year before trading a starter. Most of our pitching prospects need more time in the minors. I like Burgos as a middle or long reliever. I think he can be effective one time through the order.

 

I am looking at the idea of trading Gallardo with his 11mil owed next season, get a top 100 prospect or so at least in return. Take the 11mil and sign some Pitcher on Free Agency. Overall thinking the bump down in that FA Pitcher to the "#4/5 Pitcher" Gallardo is being very little, but meanwhile there's a fresh talented body in our minors the team would otherwise have no ability of attaining. Arizona and Chris Owings/Matt Davidson/David Holmberg? Then as forementioned sign a FA like Scott Kazmir to a similar amount of money deal that Gallardo would have been for the next 2 seasons. Probably a 2+1 25mil/10-14mil option.

 

It's great we have Nick Delmonico from KRod but I'd feel much better are chances of really having a 3b beyond ARam with another hitting talent like Davidson.