Rule 5 Protection & The 40-Man Roster; Latest -- Rule 5 Draft results

[Mass Haas]

Not to be confused with our Brewer Minor League Free Agency Eligibles After the 2013 Season Thread, this thread focuses on those players who will be eligible to be selected in December 12th's Rule 5 Draft, and considers who Milwaukee should add to the 40-man roster to protect. (We don't anticipate any of the players listed in the free-agent eligible thread will be added.)

 

Last year the Brewers added the following five players:

 

RHP Hiram Burgos

OF Khris Davis

2B Scooter Gennett

OF/INF Josh Prince (since removed but still in the system)

RHP Nick Bucci (since removed but still in the system)

 

Check out the players the Brewers have added to the 40-man roster during the 2013 season, except for Jimmy Nelson, these players could have been lost via Rule 5 last fall:

 

1B/OF Sean Halton

RHP Donovan Hand

C/1B Blake Lalli (since removed and no longer with the organization)

RHP Jimmy Nelson

RHP Rob Wooten

 

Remember --

 

Players who signed when 18 or younger are eligible for the draft after five years.

Players who signed when 19 or older are eligible after four years.

 

According to the rules, it's how old a player was on the June 5th immediately preceeding his signing.

 

Below are the players not eligible for free agency, but who would be Rule 5 eligible if not placed on the 40-man roster.

 

If a player is italicized, it's the first year the Brewers have to consider the player.

 

The others, not italicized, like Kentrail Davis and Kyle Heckathorn, were eligible to be plucked last year but weren't. Will they be exposed again?

 

Players listed alphabetically within level:

 

Current AAA Players --

OF Kentrail Davis

UT Irving Falu

IF Taylor Green

RHP Kyle Heckathorn

LHP Brent Leach

RHP Dustin Molleken

1B Hunter Morris

C Matt Pagnozzi

3B Stephen Parker

OF/IF Josh Prince

IF/OF Hainley Statia

OF/IF Eugenio Velez

 

Current AA Players --

SS Hector Gomez

RHP Brooks Hall

RHP Greg Holle

RHP Arcenio Leon

RHP Eric Marzec

1B Jason Rogers

RHP Kevin Shackelford

2B Nick Shaw

RHP Nick Bucci

OF Chadwin Stang

IF/OF Shea Vucinich

3B/1B Mike Walker

C Shawn Zarraga

 

Current A-Level (or below) players --

RHP Eric Arnett

RHP Tyler Cravy

C Brent Dean

RHP Estevenson Encarnacion

C Cameron Garfield

RHP Seth Harvey

1B/DH Cody Hawn

2B Greg Hopkins

RHP Andre Lamontagne

RHP Leonard Lorenzo

RHP Matt Miller

OF/IF T.J. Mittelstaedt

C Rafael Neda

OF Jose Pena

OF D'Vontrey Richardson

C Tyler Roberts

RHP Austin Ross

RHP Cody Scarpetta

OF Max Walla

 

UPDATED: The following players never filed retirement papers formally and remain Brewers property. Technically, they will appear on the Brewers' Rule 5 eligible list to other clubs:

 

INF's Brent Brewer, Andres Martinez, and Michael Marseco, OF Ronny Puello, RHP Rolando Pascual

[Mass Haas]

Keep in mind the initial post in this thread has been kept up-to-date -- any comments in remainder of thread should be associated with the date of the posting.

 

November 20th is the date by which players must be added to the 40-man for Rule 5 protection.

 

This year, the roster is at 39 (43 when you include the four players on the 60-day DL - Mat Gamel, Taylor Green, Corey Hart, and Mark Rogers). And who knows the status of LHP Miguel De Los Santos, the waiver claim from the Rangers who is still apparently in the midst of visa-related restricted list purgatory, not to mention shoulder surgery last spring.

 

***

 

Since we're always asked, here's info from last year, the numbers may have bumped up since then --

 

"Players in the minor leagues make $32,500 in their first year on the 40-man roster, $67,300 in their second year, and $97,500 in their third year. Any player with major league service time makes at least $67,300, regardless of how many years of service."

[Mass Haas]

Barring a re-sign with the Brewers, players who will be major league free agents --

 

Yuniesky Betancourt

Michael Gonzalez

Corey Hart

 

That is a tiny list, folks.

[Mass Haas]

More thoughts than predictions, but please add your own:

 

Automatic 100% - 1B Hunter Morris, RHP Jimmy Nelson

 

Bypassed last year, unlikely to be left unprotected again - OF Kentrail Davis, RHP Kyle Heckathorn

 

Don't be surprised if -- RHP Brooks Hall, RHP Kevin Shackelford

 

More of a lock than you think -- OF D'Vontrey Richardson

 

Not likely, but it'd be a nice story -- 1B Jason Rogers

 

***

 

40-man roster spots in danger -- RHP John Axford, LHP Miguel De Los Santos (if ever officially re-instated to the 40-man), C/1B Blake Lalli, RHP Santo Manzanillo, RHP Michael Olmsted, OF Josh Prince

 

If he cleared waivers, Brewers would still retain rights on Prince, less sure about Olmsted and how his Japan service time factors in.

 

***

 

Here's the Brewers 40-man, including the 60-day DL guys and De Los Santos, to help you analyze.

 

Have at it.

[DHonks]

I would protect Morris, Nelson, Prince (leave him on, since no other shortstops for depth), kentrail Davis, d'vontrey Richardson, and possibly Arnett, Harvey, or Cravy depending on AFL results. If I were from another team I'd eye up relievers, Jason Rogers, nick shaw, Etc.

 

To clear room I'd consider trading Aoki, trying to acquire a bad salary for Weeks, non-tendering Axford if he won't take a paycut, trading Kintzler (injury-risk), non-tendering Francisco, letting Gonzalez and Yuni walk, non-tendering Rogers (offer invite to camp and $100k salary), and outrighting Prince, Bucci, Halton, and Lalli

[gregmag]

Mass, I tried to think it through before looking at your list, and I came up with pretty much the same group. The only other guys with any sort of prospect pedigree are Scarpetta, Ross, and Garfield, and they all appear to have stalled out at this moment.

 

I don't know what Shackelford throws, but other than 25 innings at AA, he hasn't been impressive. Is he one of those guys who has suddenly figured out how to be a potentially dominant reliever? Heckathorn, from his results at least, also seems like just a body at this point.

 

I would:

 

Add Morris, Nelson, Kentrail Davis, Hall, Richardson, Jason Rogers

 

Remove (in approximate order of dispensability) Yuni, Lalli, Olmsted, de los Santos, Gonzalez, Hart, Manzanillo, Francisco, Halton, Mark Rogers, Axford

 

That's plus six and minus eleven, which if I'm doing my math right would leave room for two further additions (or retentions). DHonks makes a great point about the AFL, particularly as to relievers. I would offer NRIs to Mark Rogers and Axford.

 

Reasoning behind the nonobvious moves:

 

On balance, I care more about holding onto pitchers who have a chance to be MLB starters than relievers. We're flush with relievers, and we can always pick up more off the scrap heap. That's why I'd protect Hall and Bucci while exposing Heckathorn, Shackelford, Olmsted, de los Santos, and Manzanillo. Losing all of those guys would hurt, but I can live with losing a couple of them.

 

1b is a big question mark right now. I've babbled on elsewhere about why I would cut ties with Hart. Francisco has proved to be a one-dimensional power guy who kills you on defense. Morris has a small chance to be something, and he's been younger for his levels than Rogers and Halton. Those two are quite close, and Halton has the advantages of playing outfield and being ready to contribute now. Ultimately I go with Rogers because he seems to be improving with more chance for growth and because of his power, but I can easily see the argument for exposing him and protecting Halton instead.

[dacbrewers]

Here are my picks...Nelson, Heckathorn, Richardson, Hall, Davis, J. Rogers, Cravy

[brewmann04]

This might be a difficult choice this year.

[Mass Haas]

I don't know what (Kevin) Shackelford throws, but other than 25 innings at AA, he hasn't been impressive. Is he one of those guys who has suddenly figured out how to be a potentially dominant reliever?

 

Converted catcher who is consistently upper-90's, and the Brewers seem to love to protect (and project) the ultra-big arms with limited mileage. Only began pitching during his draft year at Marshall University, 2010. Not exacty sure what's progressed in terms of his off-speed stuff, but 6'5" guy who throws strikes and gets groundballs (stats). Brewers were wise to look past the ERA at Brevard and promote the 23-year-old to Huntsville, where he's been excellent, nearing dominant. Just sayin'...

[gregmag]

Got it. I kind of figured he had to have that kind of story to make your list. Intriguing, but I'm still unsure about betting a 40-man spot on a reliever who's still some distance away.

[dacbrewers]

I don't know what (Kevin) Shackelford throws, but other than 25 innings at AA, he hasn't been impressive. Is he one of those guys who has suddenly figured out how to be a potentially dominant reliever?

 

Converted catcher who is consistently upper-90's, and the Brewers seem to love to protect (and project) the ultra-big arms with limited mileage. Only began pitching during his draft year at Marshall University, 2010. Not exacty sure what's progressed in terms of his off-speed stuff, but 6'5" guy who throws strikes and gets groundballs (stats). Brewers were wise to look past the ERA at Brevard and promote the 23-year-old to Huntsville, where he's been excellent, nearing dominant. Just sayin'...

 

I like the fact that Shackleford doesn't walk a lot of guys and has an overall whip of 1.20.

A couple of Brevard's starting pitchers have shown improvement from last year. When we look at the overall numbers, let's not forget that they are pitching against better hitting teams in the FSL.

[TheCrew07]

When we look at the overall numbers, let's not forget that they are pitching against better hitting teams in the FSL.

 

While that's true they also play in the 3rd best pitchers park in the league, and an argument can be made that it is the best park for suppressing RHB power with that 20 MPH wind routinely blowing in over the left field wall.

[dacbrewers]

When we look at the overall numbers, let's not forget that they are pitching against better hitting teams in the FSL.

 

While that's true they also play in the 3rd best pitchers park in the league, and an argument can be made that it is the best park for suppressing RHB power with that 20 MPH wind routinely blowing in over the left field wall.

 

Well... I have only been to 8 games this year and most of the time it was blowing out to right field. I guess that would suppress RHB power. Three years of data is a small sample size, but the numbers do confirm what your saying.

[brewmann04]

If the Kid can throw Srtrikes keep him we need those types in the System.

[JohnBriggs12]

Other than Nelson and Richardson, I don't see any must adds or guys that would be in great demand as Rule 5 guys. If there's room, sure add Morris and maybe Heckathorn or Kentrail Davis. I'm not worried about needing Prince as infield depth. There's any number of better middle infielders that will be cheap and available.

 

I'd remove Olmsted, Manzanillo, Lalli, Gamel and Prince. I'd non tender Axford and Francisco if they sign another 1B.

[Minigoon]

I see things the same as most. Jimmy Nelson, Hunter Morris, & D'Vontrey Richardson as locks. I believe Brooks Hall will be protected. They have a pretty large commitment into him with that signing bonus. I also think Kevin Shackelford has pitched his way on as well. Upper 90's consistently. "Young" arm when you consider he wasn't a full time pitcher until 2010. Kind of player that usually draws attention in the Rule V. Both Jason Rogers and Eric Marzec have played well enough to deserve consideration, but I think both will end up being left off. I also think Kentrail Davis will be left off again, more so because of what Caleb Gindl and Khris Davis have done. Davis kind of reminds me of Erik Komatsu. The other player I think will get serious consideration will be Kyle Heckathorn. Former 1st rounder. Got bumped to AAA when Josh Stinson was claimed by Oakland at the end of spring training and had a decent year there. Big frame. Found success after he was moved to the bullpen second half of last season. If he doesn't get added, I think he ends up making someone's team in spring training. Might come down to him and say Michael Olmsted for that roster spot. Should be interesting to see how this plays out.

[DHonks]

I still haven't heard a scouting report on Heckathorn. In college he threw 95, in the pros he threw 88-89 with no secondary pitches. Has he improved those this year?

[Mass Haas]

You'll notice that we've updated the initial post in this thread with the names of "restricted" players that are Rule 5 eligible. You'll understand when you read the update.

 

***

 

Also, this is a very useful tip we'll retain for future years. We had some questions about several Latin signings. We had a good handle on stateside-born players, but this really helped clear up some players we had on the bubble:

 

"If the signing date of a player’s first Minor League contract is between the conclusion of the championship season and the next Rule 5 meeting, then the player shall be deemed to have signed after the next Rule 5 meeting."

 

Examples: OF Yonki Hernandez is not eligible - he signed in 2009, but in November 2009, after the season. As a result, the 2009 Rule 5 draft didn’t count against him. 2013 will be the fourth and final draft in which he is ineligible to be selected.

 

On the other hand, OF Jose Pena is eligible. He signed earlier in 2009, in July, and although he didn't appear in a game that season, he is eligible this year after four seasons of actual play, not five.

 

That helpful info was passed along to us by the Brewers (thanks!), and we now have a verified accurate list at the top of this thread.

[KeithStone53151]

For me, the easiest way to figure out how many guys we actually have room for was to figure out who is virtually guaranteed a spot on the 40 man(barring a trade or injury) and put the rest of the reasonable 40 man candidates onto a list to choose from.

 

Guaranteed 40 man spots

C - Lucroy, Maldonado

IF - Bianchi, Gennett, Halton, Morris, Ramirez, Segura, Weeks

OF - Aoki, Braun, Kh. Davis, Gomez, Gindl, D'Vo, Schafer

SP - Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta

RP - Gorzellany, Henderson, Kintzler, Sanchez, Wooten

P - Estrada, Hand, Hellweg, Nelson, Pena, Thornburg

 

40 man candidates

Bats - Ke. Davis, Francisco, Gamel, Green, Hart, J. Rogers, Lalli, Prince,

Arms - Arnett, Axford, Badenhop, Bucci, Burgos, Cravy, Fiers, Hall, Heckathorn, Manzanillo, Olmsted, M. Rogers, Shackleford, Figaro, De Los Santos

 

Goners - Yuni B(!!!!!), Gonzalez

 

The players in italics are currently on the 40 man, 60 day DL, or restricted list. I also added D'Vo, Morris, and Nelson as locks because well they are locks. So again, barring trade or injury, that's 16 bats and 14 arms on the 40 man with 23 options for the other 10 slots. I don't have a list of 10 guys off the list that I would choose, but I can confidently say that I personally would cross Arnett, Axford, Badenhop, De Los Santos, Fiers, and Jason Rogers off the list and pick from the other 17. That still leaves us with a number of tough choices on who to cut or expose to rule 5.

[JohnBriggs12]

Badenhop is another guy who could be non-tendered. He's not awful, but he's a dime-a-dozen type that's easily replaceable.

[And That]

More thoughts than predictions, but please add your own:

 

Automatic 100% - 1B Hunter Morris, RHP Jimmy Nelson

 

Bypassed last year, unlikely to be left unprotected again - OF Kentrail Davis, RHP Kyle Heckathorn

 

Don't be surprised if -- RHP Brooks Hall, RHP Kevin Shackelford

 

More of a lock than you think -- OF D'Vontrey Richardson

 

Not likely, but it'd be a nice story -- 1B Jason Rogers

 

They might be more likely to protect Davis than Hall, but otherwise I agree with this.

 

I'd be curious to know how likely other teams would be to take Richardson. Yes, he has major league tools, but would you want to risk giving the guy sparse playing time for an entire MLB season after he just took so much time off?

[Outlander]

I don't think it is necessary to protect Richardson, I mean he is already 25 and only in A ball. Doesn't look like he has that much speed and no power. Is the ceiling on this guy maybe Michael Brantley? Why would somebody keep a guy like that on their roster a full year when he probably isn't going to be ready for the major for another three years when he is pushing 30.

[And That]

Doesn't look like he has that much speed and no power.

 

He's actually quite fast, he just has poor baserunning instincts. And while he's not going to be a 30 HR guy, he does have modest power.

[igor67]

Random thought, though it could be a bit too cute maybe they didn't send Richardson to the Fall League thinking that if he kept hitting they would have to protect him this winter.

[djoctagone]

the chances of other players trying to make it onto the 40-man just got slimmer. now the brewers have to add rickie weeks back to the 40-man at the end of the season.