2014 off season

[nate82]

A little early to start talking about the off season and I am not interested in rehashing the same old arguments in the Major League forum anymore.

 

What I expect to happen:

 

Ramirez will be shopped around but will ultimately not be traded.

Hart will be brought back as Morris hasn't done all that much for the Brewers to have faith in him in being a regular at 1B.

Weeks will be shopped but I don't see the Brewers eating a portion of his salary but if the right deal came along I believe they would.

Axford is released and resigned 1-year $2m +incentives

Lohse will be shopped around but I don't believe a team will make a serious offer for him.

Gallardo will be shopped around (most likely player to be traded).

Aoki will be shopped around (Rangers make the most sense along with the Yankees).

The Brewers will show interest in both Hughes and Lincecum as bounce back players on a 1-year deal whoever doesn't get offered a QO will be the target.

 

Projected record about the same or worse as this year.

 

What I would like to see happen:

 

Weeks traded to the Royals hey they had interest in him during the deadline [sarcasm]maybe they will take him since we took Yuni off their hands?[/sarcasm] Maybe a Weeks and cash for John Lamb trade could be worked out. Lamb looks as though his TJ surgery has killed all of his velocity in his fastball.

Aoki traded to the Yankees for Ty Hensley/Nik Turley.

Morris/Kh. Davis to the Rays for Blake Snell/Enny Romero. The Rays need some OF help especially in the corners but I believe Morris would interest them the most as he would be a cheap replacement for Loney and they would get about the same production out of Morris as they are out of Loney this year.

Ramirez and Gallarod to the Red Sox for Blake Swihart, Brandon Workman and Cody Kukuk/Sergio Gomez. I don't believe the Red Sox are going to part with any of their top pitching prospects unless it is for Stanton or Carlos Gonzalez.

Move Braun from LF to RF.

Trade Gomez to the Mariners for Paxton, Stefen Romero, and Tyler Pike/Gabriel Guerrero

I am unsure on where I would trade Lohse to as I don't see there being that many teams that are fits as I can only think of the Angels, Orioles (long shot), Mets, and the Giants as possible trade partners and none of them really match up all that well with the Brewers in terms of prospects. The value on the return from a trade with those teams would be rather negative.

 

2014 lineup

1. SS Segura

2. Green/Francisco 3B

3. Braun RF

4. Lucroy C

5. Francisco/Gamel/Halton 1B

6. Kh.Davis/Gindl LF

7. Romero 2B

8. Schafer CF

 

Bench:

Prince, Green, Francisco, Gamel, Halton

 

Starters:

1. Lohse

2. Peralta

3. Estrada

4. Paxton

5. Burgos

 

Relievers:

Sanchez, Workman, Wooten, Henderson, Figaro, Gorzelanny, Thornburg

 

projected record 70-90 4th/5th in the NL Central.

[LouisEly]

Realistically you can't expect more than three moves in an offseason. I was thinking about a thread for "3 Wishes for the Offseason" where you could wish for three realistic moves. Would you be willing to change the thread to a 3 moves for 2014?

[nate82]

Realistically you can't expect more than three moves in an offseason. I was thinking about a thread for "3 Wishes for the Offseason" where you could wish for three realistic moves. Would you be willing to change the thread to a 3 moves for 2014?

 

Sure why not.

 

That was more along my wishlist of things to happen.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Jettison Weeks.

Trade A-Ram

Trade Gallardo

 

Gomez....... I look at this way. Melvin will not shop Gomez. It's just not his way of doing things. Also, the difference between Gomez and Schafer is 6 WAR right now. Is whatever package you get back going to be 7 or 8 wins (by the end of the year, most likely) better than the players they replace? That's a tall order. I know a lot of people think Schafer can fill in, and will be better than he has been this year, but I just don't see it. I honestly don't. He's good defensively, but he's just not doing anything with the bat.

[logan82]

I have a very hard time believing there will be a difference of 6 WAR between Gomez and Schafer going forward. Using WAR like that is why some people have such a problem with it. WAR is a counting stat. Given equal playing time that gap shrinks. There is about a 10 run gap in their UZR/150 which is basically useless for Schafer at this point. Given that Gomez had an UZR/150 of 6.9 last year I think we can go with his career UZR/150 which is 16.2.

 

Second, and probably more important, I don't think it is reasonable to expect Gomez to hit like he has this year. I think somewhere a little better than last year is much more reasonable. I also think Schafer can hit better than he has in a part time role this year.

 

Once you back out most the fielding because of uncertainty and adjust both players to reasonable expectations at the plate the gap probably isn't more than 2-3 wins max. Easily made up trading Gomez and his 3 year contract for a couple young cost controlled players. Preferably at least one pitcher.

 

That said, I would be shocked to see Melvin make a move like that. He was probably hoping Schafer would shine this year then trade him instead.

[ewitkows]

Don't see the point in trading Yo unless he has a huge bounce back these 7 or 8 starts. No point in selling low on him. I think if Hart is healthy they bring him back and try to go for it again next year.

they'll go with a rotation of Yo/Loshe/Wily/marco/ whoever wins the ST spot

I don't see them making wholesale changes till after next year when weeks and aram come off the books

[jackailius]

Its funny this thread came up because just last night I was looking at the speadsheet that lists all the players and salaries for next year and looking how/where they would impove. Its tough because I don't see the Brewers making any big splashes in trades. At best I would say a salary dump of Weeks. I like the idea of trading him to the Royals, possibly in a package with a couple of younger players or with Aoki to help minimize the cash we are sending. I think if we could get out from under ARams contract that would be ideal but I don't anticipate that happening.

 

I have an incling that if we are able to unload Weeks' contract that DM will look at a pitcher who has had success in the past but has either struggled or was hurt recently that we can get at a reasonable one year rate with incentives. I'm thinking of players like Lincecum, Halladay or Johnson. I also could see them bringing Hart back because he is a fan favorite but I believe it will have to be at an extremely team friendly contract (ie $5M) and releasing Axford and then resigning at a lower contract- ie $2m plus bonuses that were suggested above.

 

I could see the justification coming of looking at a rotation where maybe Gallardo is rested and hoping to be back to form, Lohse and someone like Halladay as a top three in the rotation coupled with the hopes that Peralta starts to become more consistant through maturation and then throw in Estrada, Nelson etc into the rotation as a #5. I see DM maybe looking at the fact that even with a QO to these players from there current teams he would be losing a second round pick rather than a first round pick as a positive and with the general win now philosophy of the organization I could see this as plausible if they can do it on a reasonable base salary with a lot of incentives for the player on a one year deal.

 

2014 lineup

1. Segura SS

2. Gomez CF

3. Braun LF

4. Ramirez 3B

5. Lucroy C

6. Hart/Gamel 1B (depending on if they bring back Hart)

7 Scooter 2b

8 Davis/Gindl/Schafer RF (whoever looks best in spring training

 

Bench some combination of the following

Maldanado, Bianchi, Gindl/Davis, Bettencourt (oh yeah how can you not have Uni B:) ), Gamel/Fransisco

 

Starting Pitching

1. Lohse

2. Halladay

3. Gallardo

4. Peralta

5. Estrada

 

Bullpen some combination of:

Thornberg, Wooten, Henderson, Gorzelany, Beldenhop, Axman, Kintzler (possibly Narveson who i think will be back on a minor league deal, other possiblities are Veras and Hand)

[paul253]

If I could see anything I'd like to see the following:

 

1) Trade Gomez: The guy started off really hot but has been coming back to Earth lately. I think the time is right to move him. His value will never be higher. I'd trade him to Seattle and I'd demand Walker in return. I think it's a fair offer.

2) Trade Weeks for.......anything. Seriously. The guy is done. I'd give him to any team that will pay his salary

3) Let Aoki walk....move Braun to RF

4) Let Axford walk. I'm so sick of this guy and his Jekyll and Hyde results.

5) Re-sign Corey Hart to an incentive laden one year deal

 

Lineup:

1) Segura SS

2) Gennett 2B

3) Braun RF

4) Ramirez 3B

5) Lucroy C

6) Hart 1B

7) Davis LF

8) Schafer CF

 

Rotation

1) Gallardo

2) Lohse

3) Peralta

4) Walker

5) Thornburg (pipe dream I know)

 

Bench: Green/Gamel/Maldonado/Gindl/Bianchi

Bullpen: Henderson/Gorzelany/Estrada/Narveson(or another lefty)/Badenhop/Kintzler/Wooten

[Roderick]

2) Trade Weeks for.......anything. Seriously. The guy is done. I'd give him to any team that will pay his salary

3) Let Aoki walk....move Braun to RF

4) Let Axford walk. I'm so sick of this guy and his Jekyll and Hyde results.

5) Re-sign Corey Hart to an incentive laden one year deal

 

I don't see how the Brewers could trade Weeks for "nothing" without paying at least half of his contract next year. At that rate he would be worth the risk, but I guess I would still do it just to make sure that RR couldn't play him every day let his option kick in.

 

I am fine with trading Aoki for whatever we can get. We have multiple options that will be min. wage that could play a corner spot to approx what he will provide.

 

I would bring Axford back, but only for $2.5M or less.

 

I am torn about Hart. This would have been an easy decision to go young if Morriss would have hit a bit better in AAA or Fransisco could field a lick or Davis could play 1B or if it seemed RR would actually play Halton. I wouldn't mind a true incentive laden deal, but you know it will be based on games played if there is something in the deal and RR will just play him everyday even if he has lost his hitting.

[LouisEly]

I thought we agreed on three moves...

 

1) Trade Aoki - the Giants desperately need OBP at the top of their lineup, have pitching to give back, and could market him to the Asian community. Giants weren't going to make a move at the deadline because they were too far out of it, but could easily make the trade in the offseason. Giants have pitching to send back - Kickham could provide young LHP plus add in a lower level pitcher. Schafer takes over in RF.

2) Khris Davis stays hot and they trade him - realistically, he's not a RF or he would have been playing there already, and I think the Brewers could use more LH balance. Strike while the iron is hot, and trade from depth. His age, salary, and production could bring back quality young pitching or 3B. Gindl and Halton are your backup OFs or platoon in RF.

3) Pipe dream is that the Dodgers trade for both Weeks and Ramirez - Uribe is a FA and Ellis has a $1M buyout (or pay a 37-year-old $5.75M) so it is possible. The only infielder the Dodgers have who is younger than Weeks is H-Ram, and he is only one year younger. Maybe to help balance salaries the Brewers take a flyer on Billingsley returning to form plus a couple of pitching prospects, Dodgers give $3M for Billingsley's 2015 buyout in case he's done or waive the $3M and ask for better prospects. One of the best things that could happen to the Brewers would be for the Dodgers to not win the World Series, causing the Dodgers to go all-out for 2014.

 

I'd listed to offers for Gomez, but it would take a haul for me to deal him. I think part of his cooling off has been him forced to bat cleanup/3rd because of Braun and Ramirez being out. He probably felt more pressure to hit for power in the #4 spot, and moving him back to his normal spot might get him to focus more on getting on base. The Brewers also need someone to take over as the face of the franchise for casual fans to identify with post-Braun, and Gomez is an exciting player who could fill that role. That could be very valuable in terms of revenue from casual fans.

[paul253]

I can't imagine Khris Davis would bring back anything significant. The only person whom we can expect a good pitcher in return for is Gomez (unless we trade Segura, Braun, or Lucroy). I'd consider moving Braun to RF. How hard can it be? If he has the arm for it why not?

I don't see how the Brewers could trade Weeks for "nothing" without paying at least half of his contract next year.

 

If they basically give him away, maybe throw in $2 or $3 million I'm sure some team would be willing to take him in hopes that he returns to form. It's only a one year risk.

 

The Brewers also need someone to take over as the face of the franchise for casual fans to identify with post-Braun, and Gomez is an exciting player who could fill that role. That could be very valuable in terms of revenue from casual fans.

I disagree. The Brewers need to win. Most fans don't come to see a specific player. They come to see a good team. I've been very leery of Carlos Gomez ever since he signed his extension and I'm afraid Melvin is going to pull a Melvin and completely miss the opportunity to trade him for a significant return.

[MNBrew]

1) Pick up Aoki's option and trade him. I really like him, his work ethic, his skill set, & his resume (1+ years of MLB performance plus a high-end Japanese career). He still has a solid upside and I think teams would trade something legit for the value of his production at his salary level. The Mariners come to mind, but I also wonder about SF, Texas, or the Yankees.

 

2) Re-sign Hart to a 1-year deal. (For me, anything that gets Francisco onto another team is a plus.)

 

3) Try to get something for Axford before non-tender deadline. He's regressed (yet again) after his superb hot streak. But he has been an extremely successful closer and maybe a change of scenery would be a plus for him & net the Brewers a decent return. The only way to lower his salary is to non-tender him and hope to sign him to a favorable deal since arby-eligible guys have to be offered, at minimum, at least 80% of the previous year's base salary.

 

My 2014 starters (but not batting order) then would be...

 

C Lucroy

1B Hart

2B Gennett (assuming that somehow Weeks isn't back, but I can't guess how DM will pull that rabbit out of his hat)

SS Segura

3B Ramirez

LF Braun

CF Gomez

RF Gindl/Davis

 

Bench:

C -- Maldonado

Middle IF -- Bianchi

Corner IF/Corner OF -- Gamel (out of options)/Green (2 options remaining)

OF -- Schafer

 

Depth:

Halton + whomever doesn't make the team out of Davis, Gindl, & Schafer + Gennett if Weeks is still here

 

Rotation (my pipe dream given present options):

Lohse

Gallardo

Peralta

Estrada

Thornburg

[igor67]

I hadn't thought about, but Davis might actually bring back something pretty good. The guy lit it up last year, and if he keeps the current pace up or anywhere close he looks like a young All-star level bat. Given the preference for young guys it is not unreasonable to think you might find someone who is very interested in rolling the dice a bit to see where exactly he shakes out. That said moving Braun to RF seems like a pretty simple way to get that same talent on the field for us everyday.

 

I'd explore dealing Aoki and Weeks for either a super young guy or a player who would be a better roster fit off the bench. A better reserve middle infielder would be very handy. Maybe if there is a starter or reliever with a very big contract for a year to swap with Weeks? Bring back Hart and scour free agency for pitching value options.

[JohnBriggs12]

It wasn't long into the 2010 season when Brewers cut their losses and dumped Suppan with a contract similar to Weeks'. Before his injury, I figured the Brewers would give Weeks until Memorial Day to show he can still produce. Now with what Gennett is doing and the injury, I'm not so sure Weeks survives the cut in Arizona. He has zero trade value.

 

I expect Aoki will be dealt. Odds are Hart will be signed to a 1 year deal with incentives. There will likely be another minor move or two. Axford will be non tendered but could be brought back at a lesser salary. Gonzalez won't return. Neither will Yuni.

 

If there are big deals in the Brewer future, they will come next July.

[reillymcshane]

Let's go crazy and remake the team. This is just an idea. Probably stupid, but I just don't see keeping the same team as a great idea.

 

- Trade A-Ram (throw in up to $6 million to facilitate a trade). Get the best upside prospect, any position, that you can.

- Trade Aoki - I love the guy, but he's a FA after 2014 and he's limited in his skill set. Get the best upside prospect, any position, that you can.

- Let Axford walk unless he'll resign for $2 million or less.

- Don't resign M. Gonzalez or yuni.

- Get rid of Rickie. Someone might trade for him, but you'd have to throw in a lot of his salary. Probably at least $8 million. That's fine. Cut him if you need to. Let's just move on. Scooter gets the 2B job.

- Move Braun to 1B (stays healthier, forced to talk to and apologize to every player in the league, even skip schumacher)

- Davis, Gindl and Schafer will handle the corner OF spots, with Schafer filling in for Gomez on occasion in CF.

- Make a trade for 3B. Look for a good fielding player. Doesn't have to be a superstar, but has a good glove and average hitter. Preferably a young guy at AA or AAA who you think can make the jump to the bigs. (maybe that's asking too much)

- Trade Francisco, get whatever you can for him. His defense limits his value.

 

This team is much better defensively. Let our ground ball oriented pitchers (peralta, hellweg, nelson) have a chance to do better (no Weeks, Yuni, A-Ram, Francisco in the field). Schafer and Gomez in the OF would be impressive, defensively.

 

No need to make any free agent acquisitions - which usually don't work out well. Saves money by using inexpensive players.

 

C - Lucroy/Maldando

1B - Braun

2B - Scooter

SS - Segura

3B - ? - make a trade. maybe green, but I have doubts.

IF - Bianchi

1B/2B/3B backup - Taylor Green

LF - Davis / Gindl

CF - Gomez

RF - Schafer

Back up OF - Get a right handed 5th OF - Halton or someone like him might work.

 

SP - Gallardo

SP - Lohse

SP - Peralta

SP - Estrada (could be supplanted if he can't control the gopher ball)

SP - Hellweg or Nelson

 

RP - Henderson

RP - Kintzler

RP - Thornburg

RP - Badenhop

RP - Gorzelanny

RP - Wooton

RP - Hand, Narveson, Figaro, Sanchez, Heckathorn

 

Extras: Fiers, Burgos

 

This team won't hit particularly well, at least power wise. But it could be okay if some guys emerge.

 

Again, all kind of a speculative concept. Improve the defense - a lot. Play to strengths of our young pitching. Superior bullpen. Inexpensive pieces allows for flexibility to add payroll during the season (or beyond 2014). Just an idea.

[TURBO]

So we have relegated Thornburg to the bullpen, in a lost season, and some of you think he will make the rotation next year?

 

One of the most maddening things so far this season is the stupidity of RRR demoting Thornburg to the bullpen when he has been nothing short of spectacular.

 

Now is the time to put the guy in the rotation and leave him be to see how he reacts, but no, we put him back in the bullpen so Tommy G can get some starts in...

[reillymcshane]

So we have relegated Thornburg to the bullpen, in a lost season, and some of you think he will make the rotation next year?

 

One of the most maddening things so far this season is the stupidity of RRR demoting Thornburg to the bullpen when he has been nothing short of spectacular.

 

Now is the time to put the guy in the rotation and leave him be to see how he reacts, but no, we put him back in the bullpen so Tommy G can get some starts in...

I'm mixed on Thornburg as a starter. Two months ago, I'd have said put him there for sure. But he looked pretty good in his starts (albeit, only three of them).

 

I felt that he profiled out as a really good relief pitcher. And that's where I think he'll end up. But it could go either way.

 

I really wish they'd let him start for the rest of year. See what he can do. If he flops, you say 'we tried' and develop him as a quality reliever.

 

Maybe after Gorzenlanny's last start they'll put him back into the bullpen and let Tyler start.

[MNBrew]

Maybe after Gorzenlanny's last start they'll put him back into the bullpen and let Tyler start.

I was hoping the same thing. Gorzo seems to have hit a wall his last couple starts. Maybe Gorzo's best in a spot-starting role & very flexible/multiple-role reliever, not as a rotation regular.

[paul253]

Yeah there is really no reason to have Thornburg in the bullpen. Roenecke was interviewed recently about the whole three starters for two spots thing and his explanation was borderline pathetic. He basically said Thornburg had some good starts but we can't forget about what he did in Nashville. And we need to get a better look at Estrada to see what we have in him (because apparently 94 career appearances with Milwaukee, including 46 starts, isn't enough to know what kind of pitcher he is).

[Outlander]

I don't expect them to do much in the off season, Aoki being traded for something. I expect them to begin with 13 pitchers.

 

Segura

Gomez

Braun

Ramirez

Hart

Lucroy

Davis

Gennett or Weeks but they both won't be on the team.

 

Bench: Schafer/Francisco/Bianchi/Maldonado with Halton/Gindl seeing time in the majors early. Gamel sticks around if they get a decent offer for Francisco.

 

Starters:

Gallardo

Lohse

Peralta

Hughes

Nelson/Hellweg

 

Bullpen:

Henderson

Badenhopp

Gorzelanny

Figaro

Hand

Wooten

Thornburg

Sanchez

 

I actually like the lineup and cheap effective bullpen. Starting pitching being the major question mark.

[JohnBriggs12]

"Morris would interest them (The Rays)..cheap replacement for Loney...they would get the same production out of Morris as they are out of Loney this year."

 

Really??? They would think they could get a .799 major league OPS out of a guy who's sporting a .726 OPS at AAA far from the glare of a pennant race? Why wouldn't they just go with Vince Belnome, who's sporting a .858 OPS playing 1B for their own AAA team?

[nate82]

What about Josh Johnson as a injury plagued signing for next year? If he pitches good and stays healthy he could be a very valuable trade piece at the deadline which would help in getting another player into the farm system. Johnson would also not be blocking anyone in the minors at least not until later in the year at least as both Nelson and Hellweg need to work on things in AAA.

[monty57]

Realistically, we don't have a lot of "franchise changing" moves that could be made, Gomez, Braun, Segura and Lucroy aren't going to be traded, and we aren't going to make many smaller moves that may bring back younger talent, but would leave the MLB team with more "unknown/unproven" players. We'll probably go status quo and wait for some of the big contracts to fall off the books, while trying to keep up the image of competitiveness. This seemed to be the plan going into this season until Attanasio signed Lohse, so it will probably be the plan going forward.

 

The following isn't a "wish list," this is simply what I think Melvin will do:

 

Pick up Aoki's option, and trade him for either a MLB setup man or a high upside prospect in the lower minors. Braun will move to RF (he's not going to 1B) and Davis will be our LF, with Gindl the backup corner OF and Schafer the backup CF.

 

Weeks will be shopped, but will not garner any interest. The 2014 season will start with a platoon at 2B, and Weeks getting the "primary RH bat off the bench" role. Ramirez will be shopped, but will not garner enough interest, so he will be our 3B. Francisco will be backup 3B/1B, getting a lot of starts and playing the role of "power LH bat off the bench." *Note: If Weeks in on the roster, either Gennett, Francisco or one of the backup OF (Gindl, Schafer) will not be on the 25-man, as we'll need a backup SS and backup C. This could be the reason the team would simply cut Weeks and eat his salary.

 

Gallardo will be shopped, but Melvin will demand two top prospects for him, so he will not be moved. Lohse will not seriously be shopped, and the two of them will once again be the top of the Brewers' rotation.

 

If Hart can walk without use of a cane, he will be brought back because fans know him and it may sell some tickets.

 

End result: Aoki is traded and the rest of the team will be pretty much the same. If they're able to rid themselves of some salary (Weeks), they will use it on a veteran bullpen arm or back-end "name" starter (someone the fans will have heard of), either of which will probably not be better than we could bring up from our own system. We'll have a big payroll, and will have to be very hopeful that injuries and age don't hit, while numerous players "bounce back."

[JohnBriggs12]

Your analysis is a good one monty. I still think Weeks will be cut rather than brought back in some bench/part time starter role.

 

Bianchi is a nice backup option in the IF as he can play anywhere, is cheap, and he usually does a good job executing when Roenicke calls for his small ball. Fransisco would allow them to bring back Hart a bit slower, and be able to rest Ramirez. His defense is worrisome to be sure though.

 

Rather than worrying about players bouncing back, I'm more concerned with guys that have stepped up this year regressing some with higher expectations next year.

 

I think they can afford the journeyman type starter by not having to pay Axford and Gonzalez and paying considerably less for Hart. As we've seen from recent Cub signings, those journeymen starters can have value at the trade deadline too.

[brewcrewdue80]

Let's be realistic here. The true path Melvin and Co. take would be this:

 

Pick up Aoki's option

Trade BOTH Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis to Baltimore for the 2years left in Arb Bud Norris. Creating a great combo of Chris "Chrush"/ and Khris "Khrush" Davis in their lineup.

Weeks stays on the team at 2b with Bianchi/Yuni being the backups.

Hart will be resigned.

 

Melvin & Co. will see the Norris acquisition the difference maker to their Starting rotation. Expect healthy ARam/Hart/Weeks to return to the lineup and hit at All-Star level ability and all this will result in a Playoff berth.

 

Proving once again, Melvin can't get away from the old and play the young. Sacrificing 12years of Davis/Gennett for 2 of Norris. Wasting 1 yr of Schafer/Gindl by keeping Aoki. And in the process leaving way more questions on what the future of what this team looks like in 2015 when all the vets leave. But hey, they are reactionary run organization not Proactive with a look to the future run organization. Theyll patch a team together someway for 2015 when it gets here.