Is it worth picking up Aoki's option?

[logan82]

With the young guys we have available in corner OF spots is it worth picking up Aoki's option? I have not looked it up until recently but I have to think we can get better production out of those guys than Aoki has put up this year. Does anybody think this year is a down year and last year is closer to expectations for Aoki going forward? $1.5m isn't really all that much but I think we be better off just letting the young guys play. If he had decent trade value I would pick it up.

[monty57]

If he had decent trade value I would pick it up.

 

I think that's the key sentence. We should be able to get someone who projects to be a MLB player, so it would be unwise to let Aoki walk when he should be able to be traded for something of value.

 

I agree with what I believe is your underlying premise that we should go with Braun, Gomez, and some combo of Schafer/Gindl/Davis next year. However, I don't think we should just give away value by letting Aoki go to free agency. Lack of faith in the Brewers' management to do what I think is smart doesn't make me hope they'll do something dumb :-)

[torts]

absolutely pick it up. Its only $1.5 million, and after next season let Aoki walk and determine at that time what to do with Gindl/Davis/Schafer in RF. Keep Gindl/Schafer on the bench, let Davis rake in AAA, and if its another lost season, trade Aoki away at the deadline.

[JimH5]

Even if Aoki is nothing more than a 5th OF, the price is right to keep him.

 

He's a capable major league player--not a star, but he's good enough to be a regular contributor on a winning team.

[sveumrules]

The Royals would be a good trade partner for Aoki in the offseason. Their outfield is pretty thin after Gordon/Cain and they've gotten .317 & .300 OBPs out of their top two lineup spots this year.

[logan82]

I think we should pick it up since it is only $1.5m. Worst case scenario is nobody will give anything in trade and he sits the bench most of the year because the young guys are better. $1.5 is probably less than they were planning on paying the next formerly retired bench player for next year.

 

He's a capable major league player--not a star, but he's good enough to be a regular contributor on a winning team.

Can the brewers be projected as a winning team next year? I think that is debatable.

 

I changed my mind 3 times on whether or not to keep him while writing this post. I could swing both ways.

 

If you look at his plate discipline and batted ball numbers he looks like he is trying to just put the bat on the ball more than he did last year. The powers numbers are down as are the walks while his GB% went up. I am not sure how significant any of those numbers are though. The only thing that is really bad is his SB%. How much of that can be directly attributed to our manager?

[JimH5]

Can the brewers be projected as a winning team next year? I think that is debatable.

 

I don't think the Brewers will be a winning team next year--but I made my comment more as a compliment to Aoki's value.

 

He could be a regular or a platoon or bench player for a winner, and to me that makes him worth more than $1.5 million. I don't think the Brewers have any OF prospects who are so good that Aoki being on the team would significantly hinder their progress.

 

And if someone emerges, then move Aoki to the bench. That was the original intent with him anyway last year, with Braun, Gomez & Hart in the OF.

 

I'm not saying he's got to be on the team the whole year. . .if they get an offer for him, it's fine to move him. But because he's only going to be a $1.5 million player, that makes him more valuable to other teams.

[Funketown]

For that price I'm sure they can find a trading partner, even though it would probably be a C grade prospect.

 

What has happened to his gap power? His ISO is down from .144 last year to just .080 this year.

 

I also feel like he's looked a bit slow out there defensively this season, not sure if others feel the same way.

 

At this point I would expect better production from Gindl or Davis than Aoki next season.

[pitchleague]

not making excuses, but he did just have a child. Maybe it's wearing him down a little bit more than normal.

 

I'm not worried about Aoki one bit. I'm pretty sure the Brewers will retain him for another year at that price. If they don't, I will probably start to wonder what is going on in the front office.

[TigerUppercut]

As long as Schafer isn't his replacement option, I'm OK any way they want to go with Nori. I'm just not a fan of a guy who only has his glove to offer as one of our corner outfielders. Not unless we're running King Felix out there every day.

[TooLiveBrew]

For that price I'm sure they can find a trading partner, even though it would probably be a C grade prospect.

 

What has happened to his gap power? His ISO is down from .144 last year to just .080 this year.

 

I also feel like he's looked a bit slow out there defensively this season, not sure if others feel the same way.

 

At this point I would expect better production from Gindl or Davis than Aoki next season.

He's past 30, so we should be expecting him to get slower each season now. So he's another year older, & perhaps a step slower. Additionally, imo he's not a very good rightfielder in terms of tools. He doesn't go back on balls well, has above-average speed, and I'm not convinced that his arm overall is any better than below-avg. or avg. for RF. He's just not a very talented defender imo -- he's not *bad* by any stretch, though.

[chadomac]

Aoki would be great for depth even if you weren't sold on him as your starting RF in 2014 - so at that price it's a no-brainer.

 

That said, I'd rather see what Gindl and Davis can do the rest of the year and I'd consider that platoon going into next year with Aoki as the 4th OF.

 

I love Schafer for his great D and speed, but his .600 OPS so far is pretty bad... not sure if he'll ever be more than a back-up but that may be a premature analysis.

[logan82]

Can the brewers be projected as a winning team next year? I think that is debatable.

 

I don't think the Brewers will be a winning team next year--but I made my comment more as a compliment to Aoki's value.

 

He could be a regular or a platoon or bench player for a winner, and to me that makes him worth more than $1.5 million. I don't think the Brewers have any OF prospects who are so good that Aoki being on the team would significantly hinder their progress.

 

And if someone emerges, then move Aoki to the bench. That was the original intent with him anyway last year, with Braun, Gomez & Hart in the OF.

 

I'm not saying he's got to be on the team the whole year. . .if they get an offer for him, it's fine to move him. But because he's only going to be a $1.5 million player, that makes him more valuable to other teams.

You think he has trade value. That makes a lot of sense. We can probably at least get something.

 

What has happened to his gap power? His ISO is down from .144 last year to just .080 this year.

It appears he has made an effort to make more contact at the expense of making good contact. At least that is how I would read his batted ball and plate discipline stats.

[JohnBriggs12]

Aoki looks like he's worn down. He hasn't gotten many off days and he's a little guy in his 30's. Aoki has value but he might be a 4-5 game a week guy, not a full time player. He's worth $1.5 million though, easily. Right now, the Brewers would be better off with 12 pitchers, and having Gindl back up getting time in RF.

[Roderick]

I'd pick up his option, but would not assume he is the starter next year. My guess for 2014 is that he will provide a line that would be the average of last year and this year. It wouldn't take much to pry him away from me in a trade.