AL MVP - Trout vs. Cabrera, Round 2

[Funketown]

Well it looks like our old AL MVP debate will be resurfacing this year: Mike Trout vs. Miguel Cabrera. Figured it was about time for us to have this thread up.

 

Miguel Cabrera:

- .365/.459/.686 (208 wRC+, 7.3 WAR) in 486 PA's

- Metrics and eyes generally agree that he's a significantly below-average defender at 3B

- Slow

 

Mike Trout:

- .330/.425/.572 (176 wRC+, 7.8 WAR) in 530 PA's

- Metrics and eyes generally agree that he's average to above-average in CF

- Great baserunner

 

I'd be happy with either, but at this point...this is tough. Last season, I would have voted for Trout without flinching. This season, Trout has slightly improved his batting line while Cabrera is posting a Bondsian 1.145 OPS and 208 wRC+. Trout makes up ground with his defense, baserunning, and the fact that Cabrera has taken a handful of days off this season.

 

At the moment...I'm going with Cabrera by a nose. They've unquestionably been the two best players in MLB this season. Players since 1994 to post a >200 OPS+ are Bonds (a few times), Sosa (2001), McGwire (1998), Thomas (1994), and Bagwell (1994). So he's pretty much the first guy to do so since 1994 who doesn't look like Popeye after an all you can eat spinach buffet.

 

While the Brewers aren't much fun these days, hopefully we can all enjoy watching these two guys battle it out for AL supremacy over the next couple of months.

 

Who do you have?

[torts]

Cabrera, no doubt about it

[markedman5]

Cabrera will win and it won't be close

[torts]

I dont even get how anyone can realistically argue this is close. Cabrera could potentially win back to back triple crowns, plus...

 

2013 League Ranks:

• 1st in AL in BA (.365)

• 2nd in AL in HR (36)

• 1st in AL in RBI (110)

• 1st in AL in R (85)

• 2nd in AL in BB (69)

• 1st in AL in SLG (.686)

• 1st in AL in OPS (1.145)

[torts]

also, tigers = playoff bound; angels = 10 under .500

[reillymcshane]

Last year, I'd say Trout should have one, but this year, I'll go with Miggy.

 

I love Trout's all around play, but Cabrera is putting up just crazy numbers. His defense is terrible, but the hitting is so special, I have to pick him - at least at this point in the season.

[sveumrules]

Since "M.V.P." somehow stands for "Player With the Most R.B.I. on a Playoff Team" it will be Cabrera in a landslide.

 

Last year I think Trout supporters could make a legitimate case given the Angels won more games than the Tigers and Trout provided at the very least equal value as Cabrera over less total games played, but with the Angels irrelevant this year I can't see even the most die hard SABR voters putting Trout ahead of Miggy on their ballots.

[logan82]

I would vote Traout since he is the second best player this year. The second best player won last year so turnabout is fair play.

[SRB]

Cabrera, and it's not even close. Defensive metrics are horrendous and should never be the deciding factor (I think defense only comes in as a tiebreaker if you have two players with similar offensive stats and different positions and/or defensive prowess, not when you have a significantly worse hitter who happens to play CF well), and there's no question that Cabrera is pummeling the competition with regard to offense.

 

We haven't seen an offensive performance like this since the days of Bonds.

[Funketown]

With the bat, Cabrera is way ahead, but whether you like defensive metrics or scouts, or both, Cabrera is a bad defender at 3B while Trout is a very good defender in CF. add in Trout's exceptional base running and I do think it is closer than some are saying, at least in terms of who should win rather than who will win (Cabrera will win in a landslide). Throw in the fact that Trout has gotten about 10% more Plate appearances, and I think it warrants some debate.

 

Now, I'm going with Cabrera because I think the huge difference in his offensive production vs. Trout is not offset by the fairly large benefit Trout gives on the field and on the bases. But if I had a ballot, I'd definitely give it some serious thought.

[StearnsFTW]

I would vote Traout since he is the second best player this year. The second best player won last year so turnabout is fair play.

 

100% this.

[brewcrewdue80]

Had to put my 2cents in this. If the argument against Cabrera is his Defense while the argument for Trout is his defense then WRONG.

 

I still don't get the arguing of defense when They Play Different Positions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hello?

 

When Trout plays 3b and is superior to Cabrera then argue that. For all I know though what makes Cabrera a poor defender at 3b would also inflict Trout if he played there. Like Braun's 3b skills.

 

Cabrera is the MVP and Trout to me has no relevance in the discussion currently due to the Angels standing. Chris Davis is the only other batter that has any kind of numbers that to me stack up with Cabrera's enough to where down the stretch ala Posey last season could dethrone Cabrera.

Cabrera is the MVP in baseball. What he's done in recent years is truthfully awe-inspiring. To be MVP last season winning the Triple Crown and then actually improve on those numbers?

 

Oh for the point of saying Trout has better defense vs. Cabrera. If you ask Baseball Reference...Trout is worth 1.1Wins BELOW Replacement this year. Whereas Cabrera is .6Wins Below it. So where's this Superior defense at this year? Trout with less SBs/Caught more frequent...his campaign this year isn't improved whatsoever vs. what he did last season. So this isn't even close.

 

I've also been hesitant to award an MVP imo to someone so early in to their career over someone who's established and lived up to the billing Cabrera has done and earned. If Trout truly is special, his time will come. But if he's not, let's say that Speed he possesses regresses quite a bit, and his batting number stagnate or see a reduction. 10 years from now the talk will be how dumb the writers were to have awarded Trout an MVP due to his Sabr/WAR numbers vs. the eye popping numbers Cabrera continued to produce and improve upon.

 

Miggy is 30 so his "Prime" should be ending this year. While Trout should be still gaining on skills approaching his prime. It'll be interesting to see how long Miggy can keep Trout down. But hands down, there is no way if the game was on the line in the 9th inning would I want to face Cabrera over Trout. I'd walk Cabrera to face Trout.

[logan82]

Trout has better defense at a more difficult position. Look up defensive spectrum. Generally speaking a 3B will hit better than a CF so Trout's production compared to other CF may be larger than Cabrera's compared to other 3B.

 

Those BR defensive numbers don't usually pass the sniff test. Fangraphs has Cabrera as -10.6 on defense and Trout as 2.2 on defense. That would mean on defense Cabrera is about 10 runs worse than the average 3B and Trout is about 2 runs better than an average CF. I think those seem a bit high but I would definitely say Trout is a better defender at his position than Cabrera is at his.

 

Without a doubt Cabrera is having a better season at the plate but he hurts the team whenever he plays in the field. Depending on who they have as a DH they may be better off with that guy in the field and make Cabrera the DH.

[jerichoholicninja]

Without a doubt Cabrera is having a better season at the plate but he hurts the team whenever he plays in the field. Depending on who they have as a DH they may be better off with that guy in the field and make Cabrera the DH.

 

They have 3 DH's with Prince, Cabrera, and Victor Martinez. The lineup they put out is as good as it's going to get balancing defense and offense.

[SRB]

At the moment...I'm going with Cabrera by a nose. They've unquestionably been the two best players in MLB this season. Players since 1994 to post a >200 OPS+ are Bonds (a few times), Sosa (2001), McGwire (1998), Thomas (1994), and Bagwell (1994). So he's pretty much the first guy to do so since 1994 who doesn't look like Popeye after an all you can eat spinach buffet.

 

Although to me there is no visible difference between the transformation of skinny Barry Bonds to big Barry Bonds and the transformation of skinny Miguel Cabrera to big Miguel Cabrera, aside from the media narrative that Bonds was juicing (apropos of nothing -- I just happened to be looking at a skinny Cabrera photo)

[jerichoholicninja]

I think Cabrera's increase in size is due more to something like cheeseburgers than anything PED related.

[Baldkin]

Yeah, no way that guy increased in size like Bonds at all.... oh wait...

 

http://imagecache2.allposters.com/images/pic/PHO/AAGI144~Miguel-Cabrera-2004-Studio-Plus-Photofile-Posters.jpghttp://i.a.cnn.net/si/2007/baseball/mlb/11/06/marlins.cabrera/t1_cabrera_icon.jpg

[danzig6767]

Cabrera will win and it won't be close

 

Yep, close to unanimous

[logan82]

Looks like Trout is head and shoulders better this year so I think Cabrera will win.

[trwi7]

The twitter war on this between Jon Morosi and Craig Calcaterra is hilarious and Calcaterra won the war going away.

[gregmag]

What I think makes the case for Cabrera stronger this year, and makes it look overwhelming to some people, is that Trout's advantages from last year have shrunk. (I'm looking at Fangraphs WAR here, and those numbers strike me as plausible given my own observations.) Based on pure hitting, Cabrera last year was just a hair better than Trout, but Trout was amazing in the field and on the bases. This year, Trout is hitting a bit better than he did last year, but Cabrera is hitting a lot better than last year. On top of that, Trout isn't fielding and baserunning at last year's ridiculous levels. The upshot of all this is that, if you thought Cabrera deserved the MVP last year, you have better reason to think so this year.

 

On the other hand, if you thought Trout deserved the award last year (as I did), the question is whether Cabrera has closed the gap enough to overtake him. Again, you can't argue with Cabrera's superior bat. But Cabrera has been even worse in the field and on the bases this year than last, which has kept Trout's advantage in those areas high enough to overcome the hitting differential. Cabrera has closed the gap somewhat, but Trout IMHO still tops him by a comfortable margin as an all-around player.

 

I wish people on both sides of this debate (not here, but in the wider world) had more fun and ground fewer axes. Yes, there's some traditional vs. advanced stats stuff going on here, but that's an interesting discussion, and there are a lot of interesting angles -- how confidently we believe we can assess defense, whether team performance should count, whether the MVP is really about hitting above all else, etc. When Cabrera gets the award, I'll probably think he robbed Trout twice, but so what? Cabrera's a great player, and if Trout keeps doing what he's doing, he'll sleepwalk into the Hall of Fame. We're lucky we get to watch both of them play.

[Funketown]

It's probably also worth remembering that Trout played 20 or so fewer games than Cabrera last season and has played 8 more than Cabrera this year, so that's another point in Trout's favor.