Starting to feel a little optimism for 2014

[djoctagone]

I am worried about where the runs are going to come from if Braun isn't as good as he was pre-roids

wasn't braun tested more than other players in 2012 because of the results of his 2011 testing? look at the numbers he put in 2012--presumably as a "clean" player. i have confidence that if healthy, braun is going to be an impact player for the club.

[torts]

I am worried about where the runs are going to come from if Braun isn't as good as he was pre-roids

wasn't braun tested more than other players in 2012 because of the results of his 2011 testing? look at the numbers he put in 2012--presumably as a "clean" player. i have confidence that if healthy, braun is going to be an impact player for the club.

 

yes he was, the policy states that any positive test will result in far more random testing following the initial positive test. even though braun wasnt penalized, he still tested positive which set the intense random testing to go into effect for the 2012 season and beyond. theres nothing in the JDA that says its only for one season, so for all we know, he'll constantly be tested far more than other players for multiple years.

[RobertR]

Just for the sake of discussion, I don't believe St. Louis is going to hit .330 with runners in scoring position in 2014 like they did in 2013. That's a fluke outlier stat.

 

They'll be good, but without Beltran and a normal BA with RISP, they're likely to be worse.

 

And, of course, the wild card of injuries can rear its head for any team.

 

I also think that too much time is spent worrying about other teams. What are the expectations for runs scored for the Brewers and for runs allowed? You get those into the mid- to upper- 80s win range and you're a contender. Maybe you have to make a move at the deadline, but that's normal.

 

Offensively, I look at the Brewers and think shore up first base and perhaps find a backup third baseman that can be replacement level if Aramis needs time off, and you're good to go. You're possibly even an elite offense. Starting pitching wise, there's potential, but that's often the most heartbreaking term in sports. Relief pitching should be fine.

Can you share your reasoning behind this sentiment?

 

That I expect the relief pitching to be neither elite nor horrible? Obviously, relief pitching is unpredictable, but last I checked Henderson, Kintzler, Badenhop, and Wooten were all fine in relief last year. Heck, Gorzelanny had a fine year as a reliever. Yeah, they may all be worse in 2014, but they still should be somewhere in the neighborhood of competence.

 

Heck, the Brewers probably will sign a reliever or two, as they don't require back breaking contracts. Behind signing a first baseman, it's probably one of the higher priorities on Melvin's agenda.

[RobertR]

Just for the sake of discussion, I don't believe St. Louis is going to hit .330 with runners in scoring position in 2014 like they did in 2013. That's a fluke outlier stat.

 

They'll be good, but without Beltran and a normal BA with RISP, they're likely to be worse.

Worse is a relative term. They were the second best hitting team in the NL last year measured by wOBA. 0.002 points behind the best hitting team. Sure they were lucky but even with normal clutch stats there were one of the best hitting teams in the NL.

 

Sure, nobody is expecting them to be bad. But, I think the Cardinals are more likely to project to 90 wins than 97 wins. They're the favorites to repeat, but I don't think we should go into the season thinking they're some kind of all time dynasty that can't possibly not make the playoffs.

 

Rather, they're a very well put together team that's likely not to be quite as good as they were last year. Let's say they win 3 less games. Who picks up those three games may not decide the division, but it may make a difference in the wild card.

 

And, regardless, I think it's worth considering that a 90 win team made the playoffs this year and that's been a pretty consistent benchmark for making the playoffs in the NL. Don't worry so much about other teams, what do the Brewers have to do to win 90 games? The rest tends to take care of itself.

[TooLiveBrew]

Starting pitching wise, there's potential, but that's often the most heartbreaking term in sports. Relief pitching should be fine.

Can you share your reasoning behind this sentiment?

 

That I expect the relief pitching to be neither elite nor horrible? Obviously, relief pitching is unpredictable, but last I checked Henderson, Kintzler, Badenhop, and Wooten were all fine in relief last year. Heck, Gorzelanny had a fine year as a reliever. Yeah, they may all be worse in 2014, but they still should be somewhere in the neighborhood of competence.

 

Heck, the Brewers probably will sign a reliever or two, as they don't require back breaking contracts. Behind signing a first baseman, it's probably one of the higher priorities on Melvin's agenda.

Ah, gotcha -- I thought "fine" was meant in that the bullpen would be a strength & doesn't need addressing. Thanks for answering me.

[3and2Fastball]

Hard to say how good the Cardinals will be or won't be until they make all their off season moves. I'm sure they will upgrade their SS position. There are rumors they may try to trade for Tulowitzki. They have a lot of young pitching and big time prospects like Wong coming up

[BrewCrewForever]

I am actually pretty optimistic. I feel the offense will be really good like it was in 11' and 12'. It comes down to the pitching again. We need the pre 2013 Gallardo, current Lohse, an improved mature Peralta, a full healthy season from Estrada and one of the young guys to strongly grab that #5 spot. Bullpen is kind of a tossup, but if they are about what they were in 13' I like them. All that adds up to at least a team that can contend.

[MNBrew]

I'm also optimistic, though hardly blindly so. I think the Brewers aren't going to get much love in terms of preseason predictions, but they're a team that could position themselves well for a solid season with a chance to contend.

 

Of course the wheels could come off the wagon again, too. If that's the case, and especially if they're the same wheels that fell off last year, then it may be time to strategically start over. But given how much went wrong in 2013, I'm cautiously optimistic that it wouldn't take a lot for 2014 to be a much better year.

 

It's water over the dam now, but I still think we'd be in a bit better shape overall if Mike Maddux were still our pitching coach.

[yoshii8]

I don't hate the idea of keeping Aoki around as the 4th outfielder, bench bat. He is fairly cheap, and would probably get enough bats spelling Davis, Gomez and Braun. I think he would be one of the better, if not the best 4th outfielder in MLB. He would also provide good insurance if an injury occurs.

 

I'm optimistic that if Hart is resigned, and we stay fairly healthy, the Brewers can make some noise this season.

[torts]

I don't hate the idea of keeping Aoki around as the 4th outfielder, bench bat. He is fairly cheap, and would probably get enough bats spelling Davis, Gomez and Braun. I think he would be one of the better, if not the best 4th outfielder in MLB. He would also provide good insurance if an injury occurs.

 

I'm optimistic that if Hart is resigned, and we stay fairly healthy, the Brewers can make some noise this season.

 

seeing as how Aoki is an every-day RF on our team as it is, and would be on most other teams, I would have to agree he'd probably be one of the best 4th OF in the league. which is why he wont be a 4th OF on the Brewers and be a starting RF come April if he's not traded.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't like the idea of keeping Aoki just to keep him as depth. Gindl can give you comparable if not better offense, & Aoki's not a huge asset on defense. Imo t's time to sell as high as you can on him & move on. He has value for any contender/pretender as an OBP-leaning LH bat with a cheap contract.

[TURBO]

...which is why he wont be a 4th OF on the Brewers and be a starting RF come April if he's not traded.

 

agreed.

 

I don't like the idea of keeping Aoki just to keep him as depth. Gindl can give you comparable if not better offense, & Aoki's not a huge asset on defense. Imo t's time to sell as high as you can on him & move on. He has value for any contender/pretender as an OBP-leaning LH bat with a cheap contract.

 

I too am in the camp to trade him for the best value we can get. Davis has to be a starter this season one way or another. Having Aoki blocking a young guy is just not smart for a team like this. Let the young guys play and see what we have. Same can be said about our 1B situation last year. Why on earth we kept trotting Yuni and Gonzalez out there at the expense of seeing what Morris/Halton could possibly do in the bigs was just so stupid. The team was going nowhere, and having crappy offensive shortstops manning 1B was possibly the most frustrating thing about last season.

[yoshii8]

If he has a lot of value, I'm ok w/ trading Aoki. What do you think we could get for him?

[3and2Fastball]

Why on earth we kept trotting Yuni and Gonzalez out there at the expense of seeing what Morris/Halton could possibly do in the bigs was just so stupid. The team was going nowhere, and having crappy offensive shortstops manning 1B was possibly the most frustrating thing about last season.

 

It was unbelievably frustrating. It wasn't as bad as starting Kotsay in CF in a playoff game but it was right on up there in terms of infuriatingly bad decisions.

[TooLiveBrew]

If he has a lot of value, I'm ok w/ trading Aoki. What do you think we could get for him?

I don't think he has a lot of value, since he's in his walk year. But I do think that his low salary & leadoff-ish-profile bat will enhance his value enough to make it more worthwhile to sell high (esp. to very value-oriented orgs. like Tampa, Texas, Pittsburgh, etc.) -- in other words, I think he has a lot of value for the caliber of player he is & for being in the contract situation he is.

 

I think he'd fetch something along the lines of a 'change of scenery' candidate arm... someone with talent that hasn't yet gotten results, or hasn't gotten results for a year or two. Otherwise you're probably looking at a #5 type SP or solid bullpen arm. I think the ideal move would be to flip Aoki for a MiLB arm with upside -- I'd rather play those odds than trade for a so-so big leaguer.

[Warning Track Power]

Ideally, I would like to see an Aoki + for Jeremy Hellickson, who is just entering his first arbitration year. Aoki seems like a TB type of player to me and could likely return to them in 2015 for a relatively inexpensive deal.

[MNBrew]

Ideally, I would like to see an Aoki + for Jeremy Hellickson, who is just entering his first arbitration year. Aoki seems like a TB type of player to me and could likely return to them in 2015 for a relatively inexpensive deal.

I'm down with this idea. TB has plenty of SP depth and Hellickson's deservedly highly touted, although the luster's off his star a little after last year. If it takes more than Aoki to land Hellickson, it's only because there's such a premium on quality young-ish/cheap/healthy arms.

 

Aoki's not glitzy in terms of A+ defense (though he is quite fundamentally sound and at worst an average defensive player), and he doesn't have the big power numbers folks want from corner OF's, but he's still a very solid starting OF, a very capable all-around hitter who's SO tough to K, a repeat Japanese batting champion, and fits the stereotypical "classic" mold of a leadoff hitter. Plenty of teams have need for him and he's an incredible value for his skills/credentials. At minimum, that profile should net appreciably more than a reclamation project, which would be selling seriously low. Aoki's payroll figure gives any team a good starting OF at so little budget space that they'd still have $$ room to make more moves, which is worth plenty.

 

For all those reasons, I still like Aoki and am not eager to see him gone. But the one position at which the Brewers have some MLB-caliber or fringe-MLB youth/depth/potential is the OF, so between Davis, Gindl, & Schafer (however non-glitzy they cumulatively are), the 3rd starting OF (after Braun & Gomez) is at the very least covered much better than 1B was when 7 guys started there who'd never played the position in the bigs before (or, in some cases, EVER in pro ball). So if they can turn the right piece of equity around into more talent at a different position, I think they don't have a choice but to try to make it happen.

[TooLiveBrew]

Plenty of teams have need for him and he's an incredible value for his skills/credentials. At minimum, that profile should net appreciably more than a reclamation project, which would be selling seriously low. Aoki's payroll figure gives any team a good starting OF at so little budget space that they'd still have $$ room to make more moves, which is worth plenty.

If the Brewers didn't have Aoki, & you wanted to trade for him (keep in mind you get him for one season, even though it's on the cheap), would you part with Jimmy Nelson? Tyler Thornburg? Marco Estrada?

 

I agree that he has value, but I don't think I'd send any of those guys for Aoki. I'd value them more than Aoki on a one & done kind of deal. If there are no arm concerns & the Rays would send Hellickson for Aoki or Aoki+, I think I'd roll the dice on that deal.

[MNBrew]

Plenty of teams have need for him and he's an incredible value for his skills/credentials. At minimum, that profile should net appreciably more than a reclamation project, which would be selling seriously low. Aoki's payroll figure gives any team a good starting OF at so little budget space that they'd still have $$ room to make more moves, which is worth plenty.

If the Brewers didn't have Aoki, & you wanted to trade for him (keep in mind you get him for one season, even though it's on the cheap), would you part with Jimmy Nelson? Tyler Thornburg? Marco Estrada?

 

I agree that he has value, but I don't think I'd send any of those guys for Aoki. I'd value them more than Aoki on a one & done kind of deal. If there are no arm concerns & the Rays would send Hellickson for Aoki or Aoki+, I think I'd roll the dice on that deal.

Good hypothetical, TLB, but it's not quite the right comparative. You'd have to target a team that needs an Aoki-like OF AND that has young starting pitching to spare. I'd be more willing to part with Nelson, Thornburg, or Estrada IF we already had 5 or more better starting SPs already on the roster and enough other prospects to be able to spare one of those arms . . . or even the right mid/low (#4 or #5) starter above those 3 young-ish guys IF I felt one of them would fit perfectly into the rotation spot "emptied" by trading that guy for Aoki (the Braves in the early/mid '90s come to mind as one real example of what that might have to look like). Certainly the current Brewers aren't a match to either of those sorts of trade equities/scenarios.

[logan82]

For all we know Aoki could be like Morgan was for us in 2012. I don't think he will be but at this point Aoki is redundant and probably not even our best option for an OF spot after Gomez and Braun. May not even be the second best option. If he plays I think it will be to increase his value not because he is the best option. If he doesn't lay all we are doing is hurting his trade value.

[TooLiveBrew]

Plenty of teams have need for him and he's an incredible value for his skills/credentials. At minimum, that profile should net appreciably more than a reclamation project, which would be selling seriously low. Aoki's payroll figure gives any team a good starting OF at so little budget space that they'd still have $$ room to make more moves, which is worth plenty.

If the Brewers didn't have Aoki, & you wanted to trade for him (keep in mind you get him for one season, even though it's on the cheap), would you part with Jimmy Nelson? Tyler Thornburg? Marco Estrada?

 

I agree that he has value, but I don't think I'd send any of those guys for Aoki. I'd value them more than Aoki on a one & done kind of deal. If there are no arm concerns & the Rays would send Hellickson for Aoki or Aoki+, I think I'd roll the dice on that deal.

Good hypothetical, TLB, but it's not quite the right comparative. You'd have to target a team that needs an Aoki-like OF AND that has young starting pitching to spare. I'd be more willing to part with Nelson, Thornburg, or Estrada IF we already had 5 or more better starting SPs already on the roster and enough other prospects to be able to spare one of those arms . . . or even the right mid/low (#4 or #5) starter above those 3 young-ish guys IF I felt one of them would fit perfectly into the rotation spot "emptied" by trading that guy for Aoki (the Braves in the early/mid '90s come to mind as one real example of what that might have to look like). Certainly the current Brewers aren't a match to either of those sorts of trade equities/scenarios.

We simply value the players differently. Even if we had enough depth that made a Nelson or Thornburg expendable, I'd want to get more value back than one season of Aoki. I don't believe the Brewers can't or won't find a pretty solid return for Aoki, because it always only takes one other GM. But I don't think a team should send a lot of value in return for Nori at this point.

[yoshii8]

I'm kind of surprised at how slow this off-season has been for the Brewers. So far all we've done is traded Badenhop, and not even signed a minor league free agent.

 

I'm guessing we'll take care of the 1b position, but what else is going to happen?

[fondybrewfan]

DM is usually good for at least one suprise. I am really not expecting anything ground breaking though. Maybe a mid tier SP, a reliever or two, and someone anyone to play 1st.

[MNBrew]

It's almost 2014 and my thoughts keep drifting in this direction, so bumping this thread seemed fitting....

 

The Brewers' potential Opening Day roster seems to be decent and could look appreciably better (on paper) with the right move or two (see below) and generally good health. Here's one stab at the Opening Day roster/payroll, reasons for optimism (salaries from Cot's; presumption of $500k for pre-arby guys, which isn't exact but at worst is not absurdly off), and moves I'd still hope to see:

 

OF (5) -- starters Braun ($10M), Gomez ($7M), Davis ($.5M); reserves Schafer ($.5M), Gindl ($.5M) -- total $18.5M

IF (7) -- starters Halton/Francisco ($.5m & proj. $1.5M), Gennett/Weeks ($.5M & $11M), Segura ($.5M), Ramirez ($10M actual); reserve: Bianchi ($.5M) -- total $24.5M

C (2) -- Lucroy ($2M); Maldonado ($.5M) -- total $2.5M

 

Summary - Position players (14) -- salary = $45.5M

- starters mostly strong (except 1B) & obvious variables at LF & 2B; much the same core as Brewers' top NL offense from 2012

- reserves are mostly young/pre-arby; upgrading 1B should result in stronger IF bench; Weeks of course is value-less if he doesn't rebound (whether for MIL playing time or as possible trade bait)

- This offense is still quite capable. The young guys still need notably positive "upward" development to occur.

 

SP (5) -- Lohse ($11M), Gallardo ($11.25M), Estrada (proj. $3.5M), Peralta ($.5M), Thornburg ($.5M) -- total $26.75M

RP (7) -- Henderson ($.5M), Kintzler ($1M), Wooten ($.5M), Gorzelanny ($2.8M), Hand/Figaro/Blazek ($.5M), Smith ($.5M), Wang ($.5M) -- total $6.3M

 

Summary - Pitchers (12) -- salary = $33.05M

- SPs are strong if they pitch up to their ability like in the 2nd half of 2013

- RPs have varying degrees of "proven-ness" but most pitched pretty well out of the BP in 2013

- There is depth on both ends of the staff, although it's mostly if not all youth (Blazek, Nelson, Hellweg, Pena, Figaro, Burgos, maybe even Fiers).

 

Other comments:

- Yes, I know I made a 26-man roster. I think variables/unknowns will be at least somewhat resolved before Opening Day re: 1B & 2B, which theoretically should solidify & result in improvement from today's roster.

- Total salary right now is about $78.5M. That would indicate that there's room for some growth for the right player(s)/move(s).

 

I still think the roster would be that much better with two more moves, whether these specifically or something comparable:

1. Brewers sign Grant Balfour to the same deal Baltimore reneg'ed on (2 yrs., $15M).

Rationale: Stud closer, greatly improves BP depth & end-of-game security factor, Henderson still hugely valuable as 8th inning guy & Closer 1A.

2. Brewers sign Michael Young to play 1B on a one-year deal w/ $2-3M base + incentives.

Rationale: 1B solved, JF21 perhaps expendable (or at least not the starter!), buys a year of AAA development time for young guys Halton/Morris/Rogers, not a bad hit to the bottom line if Young merits release based on his performance or Halton/Morris/Rogers pushing him out of the picture . . . Young also could be depth/insurance/coverage at 3B & 2B.

 

Which results in:

- $88M payroll -- not significantly higher than currently projected ceiling of $83-85M

- Hugely improved IF situation, esp. if Weeks is also traded (starters: Young, Gennett, Segura, Ramirez; bench: Bianchi, Green (my hope he'd earn the corner IF/OF reserve spot; possibly JF21 if Green needs AAA playing time) & Weeks if not traded/released)

- Deeper & markedly better bullpen, which I believe is very valuable b/c there's nothing more deflating than the BP consistently blowing late-game leads (see: July 2012 when NO ONE could close out a game without blowing the lead)

- an eventual Weeks trade only helps the bottom line assuming they pay, at most, 3/4 of the salary or less; and if the Brewers pay all $11M to net a better return, that has a positive return, only somewhere other than the payroll; the Weeks/Billingsley trade floated elsewhere on this board (seeing Billingsley as "SP excess" in LA) would sure seem like a win/win even if Billingsley were to miss considerable time with injury b/c salaries are about the same which = sunk cost either way (ditto the thought if it's Josh Beckett)

 

Bottom line: While nothing's certain, and while it would take most things going right-to-incredibly-well, I think a version of the 2014 Brewers like this could be pretty doggone good and have a viable shot at making the playoffs.

 

(edited to correct Braun's salary; mis-read Cot's)

[torts]

I like that post! I am of the party that thinks that 1B should stay with JF/Halton. Didnt Halton play in AAA in 2011 and 2012? I dont think he needs more AAA time, he needs to be in the majors, even if only off the bench, we need to see what he can do, he's 26, if he flounders in 2014 it opens the door for Morris in late 14 or 2015. I think Halton is in Milwaukee to stay unless he gets hurt or traded.