Starting to feel a little optimism for 2014

[DocLuna7]

My thinking is this will be the quietest off season in Brewer memory. Without boring anyone, I or most readers here, can probably lay out 23 of the 25 man roster for 2014. And the last two spots are neither here nor there (the last bullpen guy and the Yuni-replacement).

 

Therefore, now that the dust has settled on 2013, with THAT KNOWN 2014 ROSTER, if there are not injuries and the team (on the whole) plays a bit above itself... are we playoff possibilities? I don't mean playoff fluke possibilities. I mean, simply, do we have a roster that is worth having hope in. Loyalty aside, brewer goggles aside... man for man... are we competitive.

 

Unfortunately, I think that you are correct in stating that the Brewers are likely to stand pat with what we've got and make this a very quiet off-season. If that is the case, I am not optimistic about next year. Finishing the season "strong" to go 74-88 overall in a division which will continue to have three very good clubs is not a reason for optimism. 2013 was a horrendous year in every sense of the word. We are essentially banking on that dismal record and overall poor performance being a fluke rather than what I see as a true lack of talent and depth both offensively and defensively. As it stands our starting pitching is suspect and our offensive is painful to watch at times. While we did have some very bad "luck" last year, we also saw success from guys that may or may not be able to replicate it (Lohse, Segura, Gennett, Davis). I wish that I saw things in a rosier light, but this team screams mediocre to me. I am really hoping to be proven wrong or that DM finds a way to plug some holes in the coming months.

[sveumrules]

Cincy and Pittsburgh could both come back to the pack somewhat. The Reds are losing Choo, don't really have any money to spend and are probably going to mess around with Chapmn in the roatation for the umpteenth time this spring. Pittsburgh rode a very good bullpen which we all know is subject to heavy yearly fluctuations, as is Lirano's performance. They had Morneau and Marlon Byrd filling run producing lineup spots in the postseason.

 

That's about as optimistic as I can get.

[brewcrewdue80]

Cincy and Pittsburgh could both come back to the pack somewhat. The Reds are losing Choo, don't really have any money to spend and are probably going to mess around with Chapmn in the roatation for the umpteenth time this spring. Pittsburgh rode a very good bullpen which we all know is subject to heavy yearly fluctuations, as is Lirano's performance. They had Morneau and Marlon Byrd filling run producing lineup spots in the postseason.

 

That's about as optimistic as I can get.

 

Pittsburgh also has a full season of Gerrit Cole,Jamieson Taillon coming there way with Nick Kingham,Luis Heredia, or Tyler Glasnow in their system. That is 5! potential #1s/#2s they have...the Brewers have 0 1s, 1 2s(Peralta) and then a ton of 3s/4s.

 

Pittsburgh isn't going back to the pack in the next 6years or longer. They built this via the draft like we did in the mid 90s only they had better picks to build from and hit on those picks in pitching. The Central will be owned by Stl/Pitts. battling it out the next 6 seasons they have what all teams desire, young top of the rotation pitching with enough Bats to support it.

 

It is this reason I've been suggesting trading away what is possible (for the right young talent) and look ahead beyond these next 3 seasons to having a strong young club. Gomez,Aoki,Gallardo,Lohse,ARam all of them should on the trading block.

I'd actually keep Aoki and trade Gomez and leave Aoki as the 4th OF behind Braun,Schafer,Davis...he's the perfect backup option. The Brewers depth in the organization is in the OF and Taylor is upcoming. Hanging on to Gomez while getting crushed by Pitt/Stl these next years only to maybe trade him in his last season/at that deadline for talent is going to A: give us talent for 3years from then..2020 or B: get us ML ready talent but in trade scale being ML Ready talent means .85 cents to the $1 on trade in talent value from doing so now and that talent being 2-3years away. At least that is how I see trades going down as. It would be like us trading Schafer away vs. a team getting Taylor the man with the higher potential.

[RobDeer 45]

brewcrewdue80, at first I thought, man we can't trade Gomez, but after thinking about it for a minute, I think you're right. We really need to make an all out move for the future. I don't think that means bad baseball, but if we continue on this path, we are just going to be avg and have nothing to show for it. I'm still a believer that trading for pitching and hopefully being able to draft a few pitchers (Big If) is by far the best way to do build a team, especially when you are small market. I don't know if we'll ever trade guys away, but this is the time to do it.

[paul253]

I would love for Melvin to think outside the box as to how to acquire talented young pitching. That would mean either trading Gomez or Segura. I have been a big advocate of moving Gomez as he is signed to a team friendly deal, had a breakout season that I'm not sure he can repeat, and is still relatively young. Plus we have a capable replacement in Schafer (at least defensively capable) and as BCD pointed out Aoki would be an ok alternative as well. Segura would require the right player in return (the Shelby Miller/Tajaun Walker type player) but I'd wouldn't be dead set on moving him like I'm sure Melvin is.

 

Recent history has shown that 1) We aren't a playoff team without a team ERA at least in the top half of the league and 2) We don't have a rotation capable of doing that, nor do we have enough help in the system to get there. I'm glad that we have players that are good (Segura, Gomez) but I'd rather watch a good team than good players. The Brewers are not a good team right now and unless everything goes exactly right I just don't see how we'll be a good team in 2014.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Brewers organization just painfully reminds me of a mantra Billy Beane cites:

 

- "I always felt like in our market you either have a playoff team or you’re building one. That in-between stage is sort of a no-man’s land in our market place."

 

- "The key," Beane says, "is identifying the moment" -- the time when continued success with incremental change has become impossible, when you have to cast off existing talent and start fresh. "The worst is when you try to do it halfway: when you think you can compete and you also think you're trying to rebuild. Then you're stuck in no-man's-land. You either do it or you don't."

[yoshii8]

When are the winter meetings and gm meetings?

[brewmann04]

I would move Gomez before Segura at this point.

[paul253]

"The worst is when you try to do it halfway: when you think you can compete and you also think you're trying to rebuild. Then you're stuck in no-man's-land. You either do it or you don't."

 

I really wonder what is going between DM and Mark A. I wonder if Melvin recognizes the state of the franchise but Mark A. is playing the role of Herb Kohl and demanding we win as many games as possible, even if that number is only 78.

[Thurston Fluff]

The Central will be owned by Stl/Pitts. battling it out the next 6 seasons they have what all teams desire, young top of the rotation pitching with enough Bats to support it.

 

Keep in mind St Louis has a good rotation but had more than their share of luck hitting with runners in scoring position last year. That is unlikely to be the case year in and year out. I would have been willing to think it was some sort of skill until the WS. If they tanked there I find it hard to believe they really are just better clutch hitters or something. I like Pittsburgh's long term outlook more than I do St Louis.

[logan82]

The Cards had the 10th best team wOBA in MLB. 2nd best in the NL. Lucky or not, they were a better offensive team than most NL teams. I would expect their runs to go down but not a lot. The Pirates are the team I would expect to come back to the pack a bit. Middle of the pack offense with good pitching. Both are still better than the Brewers on paper.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Cards had the 10th best team wOBA in MLB. 2nd best in the NL. Lucky or not, they were a better offensive team than most NL teams. I would expect their runs to go down but not a lot. The Pirates are the team I would expect to come back to the pack a bit. Middle of the pack offense with good pitching. Both are still better than the Brewers on paper.

 

 

I think the Pirate offense is likely to be below average. and for their bullpen to perform to the level they did in 2013 would be truly remarkable and defy all odds.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

The Central will be owned by Stl/Pitts. battling it out the next 6 seasons they have what all teams desire, young top of the rotation pitching with enough Bats to support it.

 

Keep in mind St Louis has a good rotation but had more than their share of luck hitting with runners in scoring position last year. That is unlikely to be the case year in and year out. I would have been willing to think it was some sort of skill until the WS. If they tanked there I find it hard to believe they really are just better clutch hitters or something. I like Pittsburgh's long term outlook more than I do St Louis.

 

Pittsburgh's players may have more long term upside than St.Louis', but St. Louis has the bigger payroll. In the end that will make the difference in the battle for the division. The Pirates are set for a nice little run. I don't think that the Reds will make much noise next year. They are probably going to lose Phillips and Choo. Milwaukee's offense will rebound and so will the pitching. The bullpen will probably regress a bit. That's how it usually goes in baseball. One year the bullpen is great and then the following season it regresses a bit. My just for fun early predictions for next year.

 

St. Louis 93 to 98 wins

Pittsburgh 88 to 94 wins

Cincinnati 85 to 90 wins

Milwaukee 77 to 84 wins

Chicago 74 to 81 wins

[fondybrewfan]

What happens to the Pirates if AJ Burnett retires and Liriano goes back to his old mediocre and inconsistent self? Yeah they have some other good young pitchers but they would still take a big step back IMO. There offense is entirely mediocre.

 

The Cards are going to be good no doubt about it. Although if they lose Beltran and Carpenter falls back the offense won't be as good as it has been. That pitching will carry them for a long time though.

[RockCoCougars]

I really don't think the division is that tough. The Cardinals have a bunch of good young arms, but they are going to lose Beltran and a lot of guys in that offense overachieved last year. The Pirates don't really knock my socks off either... so/so lineup with a bunch of pitchers that overachieved last year. The Reds are still looking good on paper too, but I wouldn't write the Brewers off just yet.

[brewcrewdue80]

What happens to the Pirates if AJ Burnett retires and Liriano goes back to his old mediocre and inconsistent self? Yeah they have some other good young pitchers but they would still take a big step back IMO. There offense is entirely mediocre.

 

Gregory Polanco will step in RF solving their revolving door between Tabata/Snider. Starling Marte now has a year under him of learning the Leadoff roll. McCutchen is a proven bat. Alen Hanson is a SS that while likely doesn't start Opening Day, is a much improved Bat at SS in the lineup when Super 2 status has passed. Tony Sanchez will get more appearances behind the Plate over Martin.

There's just so much to love about the youth and talent Pittsburgh has today and tomorrow. Their offense aside from McCutchen doesn't have Wow impact, but next year will be filled with tough outs 1-8.

 

Cole is as good as Burnett so he's covered. Taillon when inserted will be Liriano like. And they are adding Nick Kingham. That's 3 very capable replacements for the 2 you're concerned about. And there's 2more on the way beyond 2014.

These are top 40 Prospects in (10)Taillon,(13)Polanco,(39)Hansen preparing to insert in to Pittsburgh's everyday lineup. This after Cole(7) and Marte (40) graduated last season. You seen the impact Segura who was 55th in ranking had on the Brewers. Now you have Pittsburgh with 5 Better thought of Seguras joining/being a part of their team next season. 3 of them Elite in regard top 15 prospects.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Pitts. won the next 4 Divisions with 94 or more wins each of those 4 seasons. There's a 100win team coming one of those seasons.

[3and2Fastball]

I'm always optimistic in the winter, often overly so

 

A platoon of Weeks/Gennett at 2B is an upgrade

No Yuni B is an upgrade

It is reasonable to believe Maldanado will hit better than in 2013 = upgrade

Improvng the offensive stats at 1B won't be too difficult

Braun for a full season is an upgrade

Segura a year older is likely an upgrade

 

We just need to improve our pitching. It is reasonable to believe that our younger pitchers will be improved

 

Is all of that enough to win the division? I don't know

 

Can Aramis Ramirez stay healthy? I don't know that either

[JohnBriggs12]

What happens to the Pirates if AJ Burnett retires and Liriano goes back to his old mediocre and inconsistent self? Yeah they have some other good young pitchers but they would still take a big step back IMO. There offense is entirely mediocre.

 

Gregory Polanco will step in RF solving their revolving door between Tabata/Snider. Starling Marte now has a year under him of learning the Leadoff roll. McCutchen is a proven bat. Alen Hanson is a SS that while likely doesn't start Opening Day, is a much improved Bat at SS in the lineup when Super 2 status has passed. Tony Sanchez will get more appearances behind the Plate over Martin.

There's just so much to love about the youth and talent Pittsburgh has today and tomorrow. Their offense aside from McCutchen doesn't have Wow impact, but next year will be filled with tough outs 1-8.

 

Cole is as good as Burnett so he's covered. Taillon when inserted will be Liriano like. And they are adding Nick Kingham. That's 3 very capable replacements for the 2 you're concerned about. And there's 2more on the way beyond 2014.

These are top 40 Prospects in (10)Taillon,(13)Polanco,(39)Hansen preparing to insert in to Pittsburgh's everyday lineup. This after Cole(7) and Marte (40) graduated last season. You seen the impact Segura who was 55th in ranking had on the Brewers. Now you have Pittsburgh with 5 Better thought of Seguras joining/being a part of their team next season. 3 of them Elite in regard top 15 prospects.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Pitts. won the next 4 Divisions with 94 or more wins each of those 4 seasons. There's a 100win team coming one of those seasons.

 

 

Polanco and Hanson might be very good prospects, but they don't project to do much in the majors in 2014.

Between them they have 105 games played above A ball. Polanco hit .263/.354/.407 in 68 games at AA. He might indeed be a fine major leaguer but it won't likely be in 2014. Hanson did even less at AA. I'll take the 2014 Brewer lineup over the 2014 Pirate lineup and it's not really all that close.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm always optimistic in the winter, often overly so

 

A platoon of Weeks/Gennett at 2B is an upgrade

No Yuni B is an upgrade

It is reasonable to believe Maldanado will hit better than in 2013 = upgrade

Improvng the offensive stats at 1B won't be too difficult

Braun for a full season is an upgrade

Segura a year older is likely an upgrade

 

We just need to improve our pitching. It is reasonable to believe that our younger pitchers will be improved

 

Is all of that enough to win the division? I don't know

 

Can Aramis Ramirez stay healthy? I don't know that either

1) That's a pretty major "just"

 

2) I'm hopeful that someone (maybe Taylor Green? The ghost of Corey Koskie?) -- preferably a LH bat -- can be brought in to spell Ramirez somewhat frequently in 2014. He's just too valuable a bat to let get worn down by playing everyday.

[homer]

I actually don't think pitching will be a problem. I am worried about where the runs are going to come from if a) Braun isn't as good as he was pre-roids and b) Ramirez is out for more than a month

[3and2Fastball]

I'm always optimistic in the winter, often overly so etc etc....

 

We just need to improve our pitching. It is reasonable to believe that our younger pitchers will be improved

1) That's a pretty major "just"

.

 

It sure is! Agreed. I think the possibilities of Peralta, Thornburg, Nelson, Hand showing a little improvement that comes with experience is fairly likely, just (again) I don't know if that'll be enough to help us contend. I'd like to believe Gallardo is capable of doing better that the 94 ERA+ he put up last season! He is only going to be 28 years old, I doubt he is past his prime at this point.

 

Gallardo's 2nd Half ERA was 3.09, his 1st half ERA was 4.83 ... I'd like to believe he figured something out along the way there

[Warning Track Power]

I actually don't think pitching will be a problem. I am worried about where the runs are going to come from if a) Braun isn't as good as he was pre-roids and b) Ramirez is out for more than a month

You and I are just the opposite Homer. I think the lineup, assuming Hart is at 1B, is drastically improved from 2013. I fully expect Braun to be the Braun of old, meaning a .300, 30 HR, 110 RBI guy. I have to believe he was tested rigorously in 2012 and he hit 41 HR that year. I expect him to be on a mission next season to try and make amends with his tainted past. Even still, assuming our lineup plays close to their potential, the lineup remains deep and talented and the bench has players who got a lot of experience in 2013. My real fear is injury with the lineup.

 

Lineup:

 

RF Aoki

SS Segura

LF Braun

3B Ramirez

C Lucroy

1B Hart

CF Gomez

2B Gennett/Weeks

 

Bench: C Maldonado, 2B Weeks/Gennett, OF Davis/Gindl/Schafer, IF Halton/Bianchi/Prince

 

The question remains the rotation. If the following occurs though, the Brewers become a very interesting and scary team:

1. Lohse remains something close to the 2011-2013 Lohse (598 IP, 3.19 ERA)

2. Gallardo proves 2013 was simply a down year (2007 - 2012, 916.1 IP, 3.63 ERA)

3. Peralta pitches like he did from June 21 on (103 IP, 3.05 ERA)

4. Estrada is Estrada of 2012/2013 (266.1 IP, 3.75 ERA)

5. Someone is at worst 2011 Narveson-esque.

 

A lot of ifs, but all certainly within reach.

[RobertR]

Just for the sake of discussion, I don't believe St. Louis is going to hit .330 with runners in scoring position in 2014 like they did in 2013. That's a fluke outlier stat.

 

They'll be good, but without Beltran and a normal BA with RISP, they're likely to be worse.

 

And, of course, the wild card of injuries can rear its head for any team.

 

I also think that too much time is spent worrying about other teams. What are the expectations for runs scored for the Brewers and for runs allowed? You get those into the mid- to upper- 80s win range and you're a contender. Maybe you have to make a move at the deadline, but that's normal.

 

Offensively, I look at the Brewers and think shore up first base and perhaps find a backup third baseman that can be replacement level if Aramis needs time off, and you're good to go. You're possibly even an elite offense. Starting pitching wise, there's potential, but that's often the most heartbreaking term in sports. Relief pitching should be fine.

[logan82]

Just for the sake of discussion, I don't believe St. Louis is going to hit .330 with runners in scoring position in 2014 like they did in 2013. That's a fluke outlier stat.

 

They'll be good, but without Beltran and a normal BA with RISP, they're likely to be worse.

Worse is a relative term. They were the second best hitting team in the NL last year measured by wOBA. 0.002 points behind the best hitting team. Sure they were lucky but even with normal clutch stats there were one of the best hitting teams in the NL.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just for the sake of discussion, I don't believe St. Louis is going to hit .330 with runners in scoring position in 2014 like they did in 2013. That's a fluke outlier stat.

 

They'll be good, but without Beltran and a normal BA with RISP, they're likely to be worse.

 

And, of course, the wild card of injuries can rear its head for any team.

 

I also think that too much time is spent worrying about other teams. What are the expectations for runs scored for the Brewers and for runs allowed? You get those into the mid- to upper- 80s win range and you're a contender. Maybe you have to make a move at the deadline, but that's normal.

 

Offensively, I look at the Brewers and think shore up first base and perhaps find a backup third baseman that can be replacement level if Aramis needs time off, and you're good to go. You're possibly even an elite offense. Starting pitching wise, there's potential, but that's often the most heartbreaking term in sports. Relief pitching should be fine.

Can you share your reasoning behind this sentiment?