Starting to feel a little optimism for 2014

[logan82]

Drafting well would have alleviated some of the problems but there has been enough time to realize that we did not draft well and make adjustments. I don't feel those adjustments have been made.

 

Do we really have All-Star talent at SS and CF? Both had a good year this year, the first half anyway. Is that the production we can/should expect every year? I don't think it is.

 

Is the pitching talent in AAA good enough to produce any top of the rotation guys? I hope Thornburg can be that guy but there are serious questionmarks about all the guys.

[TooLiveBrew]

Imo the question always has been, & always will be, 'do you have enough talent that you differentiate yourself?' Sure, teams get hot at the right times in every sport, & go on to win postseason hardware despite less-than-stellar regular seasons. But that's never an acceptable plan for me.

 

You have to always be looking for ways to stack talent on top of talent. How many teams can say they have 'All-Star caliber' production from three or four positional spots? Quite a few. That doesn't make the Brewers special, it makes them run-of-the-mill. Should we feel good that they likely aren't as bad as this season's record (in terms of true talent), and also that they're much more likely a .500-ish true talent club? I guess you can if you want to. But half the league (or so) could talk themselves into feeling that way, frankly.

 

Imo it's not about, 'hey, we won [X] games last year, so we should only need to win [X+Y] to make the postseason next year.' Things change. It's about how well your overall pile of talent compares to the teams in your division, & the teams in your league.

 

I don't feel optimistic about the Brewers right now because they've demonstrated a below-average to poor ability, relative to their MLB peers, to create a depth of talent all across the 25-man roster for any sustained period of time. To me, the mission always needs to be, 'how can we add more talent?' -- not, 'we need to win [X] number of games, and that'll be good enough'.

[JohnBriggs12]

Imo the question always has been, & always will be, 'do you have enough talent that you differentiate yourself?' Sure, teams get hot at the right times in every sport, & go on to win postseason hardware despite less-than-stellar regular seasons. But that's never an acceptable plan for me.

 

You have to always be looking for ways to stack talent on top of talent. How many teams can say they have 'All-Star caliber' production from three or four positional spots? Quite a few. That doesn't make the Brewers special, it makes them run-of-the-mill. Should we feel good that they likely aren't as bad as this season's record (in terms of true talent), and also that they're much more likely a .500-ish true talent club? I guess you can if you want to. But half the league (or so) could talk themselves into feeling that way, frankly.

 

Imo it's not about, 'hey, we won [X] games last year, so we should only need to win [X+Y] to make the postseason next year.' Things change. It's about how well your overall pile of talent compares to the teams in your division, & the teams in your league.

 

I don't feel optimistic about the Brewers right now because they've demonstrated a below-average to poor ability, relative to their MLB peers, to create a depth of talent all across the 25-man roster for any sustained period of time. To me, the mission always needs to be, 'how can we add more talent?' -- not, 'we need to win [X] number of games, and that'll be good enough'.

 

 

I think the Brewers have actually demonstrated they do have some depth, since their record post Braun is better than it was with Braun. For all the hoopla about the Cardinals and their depth, the key man on their team still is Molina. Without him, they have been under .500.

[RobertR]

 

Do we really have All-Star talent at SS and CF? Both had a good year this year, the first half anyway. Is that the production we can/should expect every year? I don't think it is.

 

Is the pitching talent in AAA good enough to produce any top of the rotation guys? I hope Thornburg can be that guy but there are serious questionmarks about all the guys.

 

Carlos Gomez is going to put up a WAR around 7 this year. Yeah, he's probably not THAT good, offensively anyways, but he can be substantially worse than that and still be an All Star. Segura is 23 and he's going to finish 2013 substantially above average for his position. JJ Hardy has put up worse WARs than Segura most of his career.

 

Yeah, the Brewers need to be creative in finding talent and they need some of their minor league talent to succeed expectations. And they need their talent to be healthy and avoid suspensions.

 

Still, there is raw talent on the major league roster and in AAA. The Cubs could be healthy in 2014 and it wouldn't get them anywhere. If the Brewers are healthy in 2014, there would be reason to think that they could compete. There aren't a lot of teams that can compete when they're dealing with injuries.

[logan82]

Gomez should put up 7 WAR but there is significant room for regression in that. Even taking the defense portion of that back to his career average drops off about a win.

[JohnBriggs12]

Even if you buy logan82's pessimistic outlook that both Segura and Gomez will regress, it's hard for me to believe the team won't easily offset what should be a minor regression (considering their ages) at those 2 positions, with considerable improvement at the other 3 infield spots. Given the strong finishes by Gallardo, Estrada, and Thornburg, there is also reason to be optimistic that the rotation will be solid. Of course nothing is certain, but reason for optimism based on something stronger than hope? Absolutely.

 

Also, the teams they have to beat are just as likely to have guys regress as the Brewers.

[torts]

Also, the teams they have to beat are just as likely to have guys regress as the Brewers.

 

except for the cardinals.

[torts]

i mean, I feel pretty excited about next season considering howq the team has played in the second half of this season

 

since the allstar break:

33-29 record

no braun, no weeks for the majority of that record, no hart

ARAM has hit .302/.543/.936 since returning early august with 7 HR and 23 RBI in 33 games

the emergence of Davis, Gennett, Halton and Gindl (sorta)

 

the rotation stabalized to an extent, just not getting the wins

loshe has had a 3.25 ERA in 12 starts since the break going 5-3

gallardo has had a 3.22 ERA in 11 starts since the break going 4-2

peralta has had a 3.99 ERA in 12 starts since the break going 4-7

estrada has had a 2.26 ERA w/ 48/11 K/BB since beginning of august when he came off the DL (3-0 record)

[jerichoholicninja]

I feel optimistic about next year too. Ramirez has shown that the knee injury really was a big deal and now that he's healthy he's back to his raking self. I'm no fan of Scooter but there is no way he could do worse than Rickie did this year. First base will be an improvement just because there is no possible way it could get worse. A full season (hopefully) of Braun with a potential breakout year for Davis and the offense should be great. Gallardo looks more like his old self since he came off the DL. Wily has been fantastic after a rough first couple of months. Thornburg could very well be a solid 4 or 5. I hated the Lohse signing and was expecting him to bomb but he has been very good this year. Estrada gets very little love around here but he is a legitimate major league starter. I would say the only thing the team lacks is a real top of the line starting pitcher.

 

I look at all that and feel very optimistic. Then I remember this was more or less the feeling at this point last year too. Everyone said that all we needed to do was revamp the bullpen. Well that happened at least but everything else failed. I think the 2014 team will have a better record than the 2013 team but they still are the 3rd or 4th best team in the division and will need everyone else to have some bad luck to jump ahead.

[logan82]

Of course nothing is certain, but reason for optimism based on something stronger than hope? Absolutely.

Depends if we are talking about being a .500 team or a playoff team. I think it is a stretch to say we are good enough to be playoff contenders next year.

[craigharmann]

I will feel optimism the moment Roenicke is fired.

[logan82]

Unfortunately I think the problem goes a little further than the manager.

[paul253]

Unfortunately I think the problem goes a little further than the manager.

 

Exactly. If they fire Roenicke, Melvin will just hire someone who has the exact same philosophy as him, just like how he hired Roenicke after Macha was fired. The first question Melvin asks in managerial interviews is "do you feel young players who aren't can't miss prospects should get a chance to prove themselves?" If the answer is anything other than hysterical laughing the candidate is eliminated.

[jerichoholicninja]

Unfortunately I think the problem goes a little further than the manager.

 

Exactly. If they fire Roenicke, Melvin will just hire someone who has the exact same philosophy as him, just like how he hired Roenicke after Macha was fired. The first question Melvin asks in managerial interviews is "do you feel young players who aren't can't miss prospects should get a chance to prove themselves?" If the answer is anything other than hysterical laughing the candidate is eliminated.

 

That's certainly going a little far. What "can't miss" prospects have there been since Braun and Fielder?

[logan82]

Unfortunately I think the problem goes a little further than the manager.

 

Exactly. If they fire Roenicke, Melvin will just hire someone who has the exact same philosophy as him, just like how he hired Roenicke after Macha was fired. The first question Melvin asks in managerial interviews is "do you feel young players who aren't can't miss prospects should get a chance to prove themselves?" If the answer is anything other than hysterical laughing the candidate is eliminated.

 

That's certainly going a little far. What "can't miss" prospects have there been since Braun and Fielder?

That is what he is saying. Unless a guy is a can't miss prospect neither Macha or Ron seem like they want to start a young guy unless their hand is forced.

[jerichoholicninja]

I missed the "aren't". I read it as "are".

[TooLiveBrew]

Imo the question always has been, & always will be, 'do you have enough talent that you differentiate yourself?' Sure, teams get hot at the right times in every sport, & go on to win postseason hardware despite less-than-stellar regular seasons. But that's never an acceptable plan for me.

 

You have to always be looking for ways to stack talent on top of talent. How many teams can say they have 'All-Star caliber' production from three or four positional spots? Quite a few. That doesn't make the Brewers special, it makes them run-of-the-mill. Should we feel good that they likely aren't as bad as this season's record (in terms of true talent), and also that they're much more likely a .500-ish true talent club? I guess you can if you want to. But half the league (or so) could talk themselves into feeling that way, frankly.

 

Imo it's not about, 'hey, we won [X] games last year, so we should only need to win [X+Y] to make the postseason next year.' Things change. It's about how well your overall pile of talent compares to the teams in your division, & the teams in your league.

 

I don't feel optimistic about the Brewers right now because they've demonstrated a below-average to poor ability, relative to their MLB peers, to create a depth of talent all across the 25-man roster for any sustained period of time. To me, the mission always needs to be, 'how can we add more talent?' -- not, 'we need to win [X] number of games, and that'll be good enough'.

 

 

I think the Brewers have actually demonstrated they do have some depth, since their record post Braun is better than it was with Braun. For all the hoopla about the Cardinals and their depth, the key man on their team still is Molina. Without him, they have been under .500.

If you think the Brewers' depth is close to the Cardinals', I have a bridge to sell you.

[logan82]

I missed the "aren't". I read it as "are".

So did I the first time.

[JohnBriggs12]

For all the pessimists out there, as being I live out of market, I see the out of town feeds on Extra Innings. There's been more than one out of town telecast starting to give the Brewers some respect as a legit threat next year. Chris Walsh on the Reds telecasts is one. Len Kasper and Jim Deshaies with the Cubs too. Those guys have seen a lot of the Brewers in the 2nd half and they've seen the young talent and the pitching up close.

 

I don't think we'll see much national love, but within the division with guys who aren't total homers, Brewers are a team that has respect.

[fondybrewfan]

I am starting to feel some optimism but not to the point where I think we can make the playoffs and actually do something when we get there. I think we could be a .500 team next year and if certain things go right maybe sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard. I think the offense will be just fine, Gomez and Segura probably will drop back but just getting anything out of 1st and having Braun for an entire year will make a world of difference. If Aram can stay healthy and Gennett/Weeks can be productive at 2nd we hopefully won't have a single black hole in the entire lineup.

 

A rotation of Gallardo, Lohse, Estrada, Peralta, and Thornburg looks like crap when you compare it to the rotations of PIT, STL, and CIN but is it really that much worse (At least the way they have pitched in the 2nd half). You never know with bullpens but Henderson & Kintzler are two solid pieces to build off of.

 

I will be curious to see what Melvin does this offseason. Did he view 2013 as an utter failure and feel the need for a major overhaul or does he feel we just got a bit unlucky with some underperformance mixed in and hope for a rebound. I tend to think he will decide on the latter and make few if any moves of any signifiance.

[logan82]

I would lean towards Melvin thinking we are a good team that had injuries and can right things next year.

[SenatorShriv]

I assume that Melvin won't do anything crazy this offseason and will mostly ride into 2014 with the 2013 roster (including several of the pitchers and position players called up over the course of the year.) To some extent I'm ok with that. I think that the team would end up playing winning baseball, which is always step 1 in my mind, but I wouldn't envision that crew making the playoffs and that is the more important goal.

 

Unfortunately to really make a strong push for the playoffs I think that they need to go more towards the complete overhaul route. That would be a giant roll of the dice that I just don't see Melvin going for.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think Melvin and Mark A. view each season as two seasons. Try to put a competitive team on the field to start the year. If all goes well, make a deal in July/August for a playoff run. Not only do they say it, they've done it in the past.

 

So I don't see why they would go out and sign a middle of the rotation type of guy to a long term contract, when they now have young guys that can do this at a fraction of the price. The other alternative is to acquire a top of the rotation starter. Although they've been willing to do that in the past also, I just don't see it happening this year.

 

IF Yo and Estrada can pitch like they are right now in the first half of next year, they should be hanging around .500. Then we'll see if a move is made to make a run.

[Mr Southpaw]

If we just trade Gomez (he is embarrassing) for some pitching, don't resign Yuni and stick with the rest of what we have, we will be a .500 team. I would be happy with that as the young pitchers get another year to develop. Trade Gallardo (maybe Lohse and ARam too) at the deadline or if we are in it, add a piece or two.

 

Going into 2015 with Lohse, Peralta, Estrada, Thornberg, and Hellweg sounds very promising. The big thing is with that rotation we still have some other good arms ready at AAA.

[torts]

trade gomez? LOLOLOLOL